Decision Making andProblem SolvingIndependent StudyNovember 2005       FEMA
TABLE OF CONTENTS                                                                                                         ...
COURSE OVERVIEW                                                                                                           ...
Course Overview
COURSE OVERVIEW              About This Course              Being able to make decisions and solve problems effectively is...
COURSE OVERVIEW              FEMA’s Independent Study Program              FEMA Independent Study Program              Adm...
COURSE OVERVIEW              How to Complete This Course              Work through this course at a pace that is comfortab...
Unit 1: Course Introduction
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION              Introduction              Decision making and problem solving are critically impo...
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION   Case Study                 Case Study 1.1—Sebring County                 Instructions: Read ...
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION              Decision Points              What decision points did you identify in the case st...
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION              About This Course              Decision Making and Problem Solving contains six u...
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION              Activities and Exercises              This course will involve you actively as a ...
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION              Course Objectives              In Decision Making and Problem Solving, you will l...
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION              How To Complete This Course              This course is designed so that you can ...
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION              Goal Setting              What do you hope to gain through completing Decision Ma...
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION              Activity: Personal Learning Goals  Activity              Purpose:         The pur...
UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION              Summary and Transition              In this unit, you previewed the course and co...
Unit 2: The Decision-Making                    Process
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              Introduction              Whether making ordinary day-to-day decisions or...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS                Where Does the Process Begin?                Emergency decisions have t...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS    Answers                Case Study 2.1—Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation? (Continued...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              The Starting Point              As an emergency management professional, ...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              The Starting Point (Continued)              Clearly, if your jurisdiction...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              Recent Changes to Emergency Planning Requirements              The terror...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              NIMS (Continued)              According to the NIMS Integration Center, “...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              NIMS (Continued)                 Command and Management: NIMS standard i...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              NIMS (Continued)                 Supporting Technologies: Technology and...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              The NRP (Continued)                 Addresses the complete spectrum of i...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              The NRP (Continued)              The NRP, as a core operational plan for ...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              Problem-Solving Model              There are many different decision-maki...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS                  Step 1. Identify the Problem                  Problem identification ...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS   Step 1 Job Aid: Checklist for Identifying, Defining, and Analyzing Problems         ...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS    Step 1 Job Aid: Checklist for Identifying, Defining, and Analyzing Problems        ...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS                Step 2. Explore Alternatives                The second step in the deci...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS    Answers                Case Study 2.2—What Are Your Options? (Continued)           ...
UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS              Step 2. Explore Alternatives (Continued)              Techniques for Gene...
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  1. 1. Decision Making andProblem SolvingIndependent StudyNovember 2005 FEMA
  2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS PageCourse Overview........................................................................................................................ 1Unit 1: Course IntroductionIntroduction............................................................................................................................... 1.1Decisions in Emergency Management.....................................................................................1.1Case Study 1.1—Sebring County............................................................................................1.2Decision Points......................................................................................................................... 1.3What’s at Stake?...................................................................................................................... 1.3About This Course....................................................................................................................1.4Activities and Exercises............................................................................................................1.5Job Aids.................................................................................................................................... 1.5Knowledge Checks................................................................................................................... 1.5Appendix.................................................................................................................................. 1.5Course Objectives.................................................................................................................... 1.6How Will You Benefit?..............................................................................................................1.6How to Complete This Course..................................................................................................1.7Sample Learning Schedule......................................................................................................1.8Goal Setting.............................................................................................................................. 1.9Activity: Personal Learning Goals..........................................................................................1.10Summary and Transition........................................................................................................ 1.11Unit 2: The Decision-Making ProcessIntroduction............................................................................................................................... 2.1Problem Solving vs. Decision Making.......................................................................................2.1Where Does the Process Begin?.............................................................................................2.2Case Study 2.1—Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation?...........................................................2.2The Starting Point..................................................................................................................... 2.4Recent Changes to Emergency Planning Requirements.........................................................2.6Problem-Solving Model.......................................................................................................... 2.12Step 1: Identify the Problem..................................................................................................2.13Step 2: Explore Alternatives..................................................................................................2.16Case Study 2.2—What Are Your Options?............................................................................2.16Step 3: Select an Alternative.................................................................................................2.20Step 4: Implement the Solution.............................................................................................2.22Activity: Implementing the Solution........................................................................................2.23Step 5: Evaluate the Situation...............................................................................................2.27Activity: Evaluating Your Solution..........................................................................................2.29Summary and Transition........................................................................................................ 2.31For More Information.............................................................................................................. 2.31Knowledge Check.................................................................................................................. 2.32Decision Making and Problem Solving Page i
  3. 3. COURSE OVERVIEW PageUnit 3: Identifying Decision-Making Styles and AttributesIntroduction............................................................................................................................... 3.1What Is Psychological Type?...................................................................................................3.1What Are Preferences?............................................................................................................3.2Using Type Inventories to Determine Preferences...................................................................3.2The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator ®............................................................................................3.3Preferences and Decision Making............................................................................................3.4Activity: Where Should You Flex?...........................................................................................3.5Who Decides?.......................................................................................................................... 3.8Successful Group Decision Making........................................................................................3.10Activity: Individual or Group Decision?..................................................................................3.13What Is an Effective Decision Maker?....................................................................................3.17Attributes of an Effective Decision Maker...............................................................................3.17Activity: Identifying Your Strengths and Limitations...............................................................3.19Summary and Transition........................................................................................................ 3.20For More Information.............................................................................................................. 3.20Knowledge Check.................................................................................................................. 3.21Unit 4: Ethical Decision Making and Problem SolvingIntroduction............................................................................................................................... 4.1What Is Ethics?........................................................................................................................ 4.1Ethical Issues and Emergencies..............................................................................................4.2Activity: Ethical Issues and Emergencies................................................................................4.3Components of Ethical Decision Making..................................................................................4.6Applying the Problem-Solving Model to Ethical Issues.............................................................4.7Activity: Applying the Problem-Solving Model to Ethical Issues..............................................4.8Summary and Transition........................................................................................................ 4.11For More Information.............................................................................................................. 4.11Knowledge Check.................................................................................................................. 4.12Unit 5: Decision Making in an EmergencyIntroduction............................................................................................................................... 5.1Decision Making and Stress.....................................................................................................5.1Case Study: Hurricane Hortence.............................................................................................5.3Summary and Transition........................................................................................................ 5.10Unit 6: Course SummaryIntroduction............................................................................................................................... 6.1The Decision-Making Process..................................................................................................6.1The Problem-Solving Model.....................................................................................................6.2Decision-Making Styles............................................................................................................6.3Attributes of an Effective Decision Maker.................................................................................6.4Ethical Decision Making............................................................................................................ 6.5The Final Step.......................................................................................................................... 6.6Appendix A: Job AidsDecision Making and Problem Solving Page ii
  4. 4. Course Overview
  5. 5. COURSE OVERVIEW About This Course Being able to make decisions and solve problems effectively is a necessary and vital part of the job for every emergency manager, planner, and responder. This course is designed to improve your decision-making skills. It addresses:  The decision-making process  Decision-making styles  Attributes of an effective decision maker  Ethical decision making and problem solving FEMA’s Independent Study Program FEMA’s Independent Study Program is one of the delivery channels that the Emergency Management Institute (EMI) uses to provide training to the general public and specific audiences. This course is part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA’s) Independent Study Program. In addition to this course, the Independent Study Program includes courses in floodplain management, radiological emergency management, the role of the emergency manager, hazardous materials, disaster assistance, the role of the Emergency Operations Center, and an orientation to community disaster exercises. FEMA’s independent study courses are available at no charge and include a final examination. You may apply individually or through group enrollment. When enrolling for a course, you must include your name, mailing address, social security number, and the title of the course in which you want to enroll.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1
  6. 6. COURSE OVERVIEW FEMA’s Independent Study Program FEMA Independent Study Program Administrative Office Emergency Management Institute 16825 South Seton Avenue Emmitsburg, MD 21727 (301) 447-1200 Information about FEMA’s Independent Study Program also is available on the Internet at: http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/IS Each request will be reviewed and directed to the appropriate course manager or program office for assistance. Final Examination This course includes a written Final Examination, which you must complete and return to FEMA’s Independent Study Office for scoring. To obtain credit for taking this course, you must successfully complete (75 percent correct) this examination regardless of whether you complete this course through self- instruction or through group instruction. You may take the Final Examination as many times as necessary. Course Completion The course completion deadline for all FEMA Independent Study courses is 1 year from the date of enrollment. The date of enrollment is the date that the EMI Independent Study Office will use for completion of all required course work, including the Final Examination. If you do not complete this course, including the Final Examination, within that timeframe, your enrollment will be terminated. Decision Making and Problem Solving has no prerequisites.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2
  7. 7. COURSE OVERVIEW How to Complete This Course Work through this course at a pace that is comfortable for you. You should resist the temptation to rush through the material, however. Take enough time with each unit to ensure that you have mastered its content before proceeding to the next. Knowledge Checks To help you know when to proceed, each unit is followed by a Knowledge Check that addresses the material contained in the unit. The Knowledge Check asks you to answer questions that apply to what you have learned in the unit. The answers to the Knowledge Check follow each Knowledge Check. When you finish each exercise, check your answers, and review the parts of the text that you do not understand. Do not proceed to the next unit until you are sure that you have mastered the current unit. When you have completed all units, take the Final Examination online, or use the answer sheet (if provided in your course packet). EMI will score your test and notify you of the results. Begin the Course You may begin the course now.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 3
  8. 8. Unit 1: Course Introduction
  9. 9. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION Introduction Decision making and problem solving are critically important skill areas for emergency managers, planners, first responders, voluntary agency coordinators, and other professionals in emergency management. As an emergency management professional, your ability to identify current and potential problems and to make sound, timely decisions before and during an emergency can literally affect the lives and well-being of the local citizenry. Your decisions can impact the ability of response agencies to do their jobs and can make the difference in how quickly the community is able to recover from an event. Decisions in Emergency Management How often are your decision-making abilities tested when an emergency threatens? Let’s begin with an example. Review the case study that is provided on the next page.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.1
  10. 10. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION Case Study Case Study 1.1—Sebring County Instructions: Read the following case study. As you read, try to identify what decisions must be made by the emergency manager or other emergency management officials. Jot down your ideas before continuing.Background: Heavy rainstorms have hit, and counties across the entire State are faced withflash flooding to varying degrees. The town of Westfield located in Sebring County, one ofthe hardest hit counties in the Statesits high and well away from the river, so flooding isusually not a concern. Last year, a new spillway was built to increase the capacity of the townreservoir to about 44 million gallons. Two towns downstream, Ambry and Gilson, are less thana 5-minute drive from Westfield. Each town has about 2400 residents, most of them alongU.S. Route 270.Event chronology:Late afternoon Rain begins, and weather forecasters predict it will be a strong, slow-moving storm, which will produce heavy rain.7:41 p.m. A flash flood watch is issued by the National Weather Service.8:00 p.m. Heavy rains begin.9:30 p.m. The county engineer stations an employee on the dam to watch for and report any problems. The employee sees water pouring a good 2 feet over the spillway. (It was later estimated that the reservoir was holding 65 million gallons during and after the storm.)11:00 p.m. Five inches of rain have fallen over the last 3 hours.12:30 a.m. The employee sees a section of dirt break away.1:00 a.m. When water recedes below the top of the dam, county employees discover that water has eaten around the spillway and is gradually carving away the side of the earthen dam. A first attempt at closing the hole with sandbags fails when the force of the water carries the bags right through.1:30 a.m. The Sebring County Emergency Program Manager is now meeting with the mayor of Westfield, the county engineer, the public works director, the fire chief, and the police chief to discuss the situation.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.2
  11. 11. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION Decision Points What decision points did you identify in the case study? If you noted that the central problem is that if the dam breaks, the people in the downstream towns will be flooded, you’re absolutely correct. Numerous decisions must be made to address this problem. Some of the key decisions that must be made are shown below, and you probably identified others as well.  Should residents in the two downstream towns be evacuated?  If the decision is to evacuate, when should the evacuation take place?  Who will notify the citizens of the evacuation, and how?  What additional resources will be necessary to accomplish the evacuation and provide any shelter needed?  What is the most effective way to keep the dam from collapsing, and what resources will be needed to accomplish that? What’s At Stake? The ability to make sound, timely decisions during an emergency event is critical. Good problem solving and decision making can avert tragedy and help the community recover from the event more quickly. Conversely, poor decision makingor the absence of decisions potentially can result in injury or death to victims or responders. (Clearly, in our case study, if the Emergency Manager makes a poor decision—or simply doesn’t make any decision before it’s too late—the consequences could be disastrous for the residents of Ambry and Gilson.) But the repercussions don’t stop there. Poor decisions in the early stages of an event can make the responders’ job more difficult and more dangerous. In addition, they can give rise to much more critical or complex decisions later onto say nothing of the effect on community relations. Good decision-making skills are one of your most critical assets as an emergency management professional. This course will help you develop those skills.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.3
  12. 12. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION About This Course Decision Making and Problem Solving contains six units. Each unit is described below.  Unit 1, Course Introduction, provides an overview of the course.  Unit 2, The Decision-Making Process, presents a five-step, problem- solving model and opportunities to apply the model to case studies. The unit also explores factors that affect decision making.  Unit 3, Identifying Decision-Making Styles and Attributes, discusses the impact of personality type and personal preferences on decision-making style. During this unit, you will complete a personality type inventory and consider what that information indicates about your approach to decision making. This unit also explores what it takes to be an effective decision maker and what you can do to capitalize on your strengths and minimize your limitations.  Unit 4, Ethical Decision Making and Problem Solving, focuses on situations involving ethical decisions and discusses the components of ethical decision making.  Unit 5, Decision Making in an Emergency, gives you an opportunity to apply decision-making and problem-solving skills in a case study situation.  Unit 6, Course Summary, summarizes key concepts from the entire course.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.4
  13. 13. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION Activities and Exercises This course will involve you actively as a learner by including activities and exercises that highlight basic concepts. It will also provide you with guidance on actions required in specific situations through the use of field-specific case studies. Job Aids Throughout the course, you will find job aids designed to guide you through a variety of decision-making tasks. They can be used during the course, and you will find them useful later, after you have completed the course. Knowledge Checks At the end of most units you will find a knowledge self-check. You can use these self-administered quizzes to verify that you have learned the content of the unit before moving on. Appendix In addition to the six units, this course includes an appendix that contains copies of all the job aids presented in the course.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.5
  14. 14. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION Course Objectives In Decision Making and Problem Solving, you will learn a decision-making model that can be used to make decisions and solve problems in both emergency and day-to-day situations. This self-paced course will provide you with a foundation of knowledge that will enable you to:  Explain the need for decision-making and problem-solving skills in emergency management.  Describe how decisions made before an emergency help the decision- making process during an emergency.  Distinguish between a problem and its causes or symptoms.  Analyze your personal attributes and relate them to your decision-making style.  Describe the personal attributes of an effective decision maker.  Explain how the ethics of a situation can affect decision making and problem solving.  Apply a model for problem solving and decision making to emergency management scenarios. How Will You Benefit? You will benefit in several ways by taking this course:  You will learn how to identify a problem—as distinguished from its causes or symptoms. Failure to identify the problem properly is one of the main reasons for poor decision making.  You will learn a model for problem solving—and learn how to apply the model as a way of improving your decision making.  You will become more aware of your own personal attributes as a decision maker and use that awareness as a starting point for improving your decision-making ability.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.6
  15. 15. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION How To Complete This Course This course is designed so that you can complete it on your own at your own pace. Take a break after each unit, and give yourself time to think about the material, particularly how it applies to your work as an emergency management professional and the decision-making situations you have encountered or anticipate encountering on the job. Remember to complete the activities and case study exercises that are presented during the course. These activities and exercises emphasize different learning points, so be sure to complete all of them. Compare your answers to the answers provided following each activity or exercise. If your answers are correct, continue on with the material. If any of your answers are wrong, go back and review the material before continuing. Take the short “Knowledge Check” quizzes at the end of Units 2 through 5. Check your answers using the answer key that follows each Knowledge Check. If you missed any questions, go back and review the material again. After you have completed all of the units, complete the Final Examination that is available online through the Emergency Management Institute’s Independent Study office, using the supplied answer sheet. To obtain credit for taking this course, you must successfully complete this examination (75 percent correct). EMI will score your test and notify you of the results. You may take the Final Examination as many times as necessary. Sample Learning Schedule Complete this course at your own pace. You should be able to finish the entire courseincluding pretest, units, knowledge checks, and final examinationin approximately 6 or 7 hours. The following learning schedule is only an example, intended to show relative times devoted to each unit. Unit Suggested Time Unit 1: Course Introduction 1 hour Unit 2: The Decision-Making Process 1 hour Unit 3: Identifying Decision-Making Styles and Attributes 1 hour 45 minutes Unit 4: Ethical Decision Making and Problem Solving 1 hour Unit 5: Decision Making in an Emergency 1 hour Unit 6: Course Summary 30 minutesDecision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.7
  16. 16. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION Goal Setting What do you hope to gain through completing Decision Making and Problem Solving? Depending on your role in emergency management, your prior experience in decision-making and problem solving situations, and your current level of expertise in these areas, your goals may be slightly different from those of another emergency management professional. Clarifying your goals will help you gain the most from the time you spend completing this course. Take a few minutes to complete the following activity.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.8
  17. 17. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION Activity: Personal Learning Goals Activity Purpose: The purpose of this activity is to develop personal goals for this course. Instructions: 1. Consider the following information:  The course objectives.  The potential benefits of completing this course.  Your own decision-making experience. Reflect on emergencies in which you have participated, the decisions that were made during those emergencies, and the consequences of those decisions. What have you learnedeither positive or negativefrom those experiences? 2. Think about what you would like to accomplish through this course. Then list three (or more) personal goals for improving your decision-making and problem-solving skills. My Course Goals 1. ______________________________________________________ 2. ______________________________________________________ 3. ______________________________________________________Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.9
  18. 18. UNIT 1: COURSE INTRODUCTION Summary and Transition In this unit, you previewed the course and considered your own goals for improving your decision-making and problem-solving skills. Unit 2 discusses the decision-making process.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 1.10
  19. 19. Unit 2: The Decision-Making Process
  20. 20. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Introduction Whether making ordinary day-to-day decisions or critical, time-sensitive decisions in an emergency, using a standard problem-solving model will help ensure that your decisions are rational and logical. In this unit, you will learn a five-step, problem-solving model. After completing this unit, you should be able to:  Describe how decisions made before an emergency affect decision making and problem solving during an emergency.  Describe the steps in the problem-solving model.  Review a case study and distinguish the problem from its causes and symptoms. Problem Solving vs. Decision Making To begin, let’s clarify what we mean by problem solving and decision making and how they relate to one another.  Problem solving is a set of activities designed to analyze a situation systematically and generate, implement, and evaluate solutions.  Decision making is a mechanism for making choices at each step of the problem-solving process. Decision making is part of problem solving, and decision making occurs at every step of the problem-solving process.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.1
  21. 21. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Where Does the Process Begin? Emergency decisions have their beginnings well before any emergency strikes. Often the number, type, and magnitude of decisions and problems that must be addressed during an emergency are a direct outgrowth of decisions that were (or weren’t) made at the outset of the emergency, or even before the emergency began. The following case study illustrates how early decisions can affect later decisions. Read the case study. Then, analyze the decision to determine how the current decision can affect later decisions. Case Study Case Study 2.1—Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation?The town of Fort Rice, North Dakota is located on the western bank of the Missouri River. Afarming and ranching community, Fort Rice’s residents are known for their tenacity in fightingthe weather—and the river—to earn a living.It has been raining for 12 hours, and the National Weather Service has forecast severeflooding conditions through most of the upper Midwest. The Missouri River and the rivers andstreams that feed it are on the rise and are expected to continue to rise over the next severaldays as the storm is held in place by a large high-pressure area that is currently stationary overthe Ohio Valley. Despite the fact that sandbagging crews have been supporting all locallevees, severe flooding is a near certainty.The mayor and all emergency management professionals from Fort Rice have been keepingabreast of the situation since before the rain began. They have been communicating with thelocal Weather Forecast Office, as well as county and State emergency managementpersonnel. The question on the table at this point is not whether to issue an evacuation orderbut whether to make the evacuation mandatory.Historically, farmers and ranchers have been unwilling to evacuate, even when flooding issevere. Most have grown up in the area and are aware of the damage that flooding cancause, but they are also aware of their investment in their land and livestock and will fight tosave what they can.After considerable discussion, the mayor, with the emergency management group’sconcurrence, makes the decision to activate the Emergency Alert System and issue theevacuation order. But although they decide to word the message strongly, they do not makethe evacuation mandatory.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.2
  22. 22. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Answers Case Study 2.1—Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation? (Continued) Answers to the Case StudyWhat is the potential impact of the decision not to make the evacuation mandatory?The early decision to issue an evacuation order but to not make it mandatory can seriouslyaffect later decisions. Some of the ways in which later decisions can be affected are listedbelow. You may have additional examples as well. Farmers and ranchers who choose not to evacuate now may be in a position of needing to evacuate later, when evacuation will be more dangerous or impossible. How will the decision about how and when to effect an emergency rescue be made? Emergency responders who may later be required to assist with emergency rescues will be placed at risk. Who will make the decision to send responders into the fast-moving waters? When will that decision be made? Response resources deployed for emergency rescues may cause resource shortfalls elsewhere. How does one weigh the overall benefit of deploying resources for emergency rescues versus the cost of those resources not being available for other purposes (which may also involve life-saving efforts)? The overall cost for the response will increase if response resources must be deployed to assist with emergency rescues. While cost will not be an issue where the potential loss of life is involved, the decision not to require evacuation will affect later decisions about how to cover the overall costs of the emergency.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.3
  23. 23. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The Starting Point As an emergency management professional, you have at your disposal a variety of resources designed to guide your decision making during emergencies. When a jurisdiction develops an Emergency Operations Plan (EOP), Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), or other procedural documents, it provides the foundation for decision making that will occur during emergencies. Many decisions are made during the development of these documents, and there are real advantages to having made those decisions during the planning process rather than in the heat of an emergency.  Decisions made under non-emergency conditions can be made deliberately, without the stress factors that accompany crisis decisions.  Absence of critical time factors permits the jurisdiction to use group process, gather input from all of the involved parties, and achieve group consensus.  The planning process allows enough time to consider all contingencies and weigh alternative responses fully.  Planning in advance gives the jurisdiction time to obtain “buy-in” from the many stakeholders, to train and exercise the plan, and to educate the public about what to expect—and what to do—in an emergency.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.4
  24. 24. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The Starting Point (Continued) Clearly, if your jurisdiction has an Emergency Operations Plan and procedures in place, that is the place to start your decision-making process when an emergency threatens or occurs. It will answer many questions, such as:  Who is responsible for what? Who makes decisions?  What organization should be used during response and recovery?  What triggers each kind of action?  How does communication take place?  Under what conditions is evacuation initiated?  What provisions are there for mass care? As you implement the EOP, you can use the problem-solving model that is included later in this unit at any stage of an emergency response to ensure that you have the greatest possible control over the situation.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.5
  25. 25. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Recent Changes to Emergency Planning Requirements The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, illustrated the need for all levels of government, the private sector, and nongovernmental agencies to prepare for, protect against, respond to, and recover from a wide spectrum of events that exceed the capabilities of any single entity. These events require a unified and coordinated national approach to planning and to domestic incident management. To address this need, the President signed a series of Homeland Security Presidential Directives (HSPDs) that were intended to develop a common approach to preparedness and response. Two HSPDs are of particular importance in effective decision making for your jurisdiction:  HSPD-5, Management of Domestic Incidents, identifies steps for improved coordination in response to incidents. It requires the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to coordinate with other Federal departments and agencies and State, local, and Tribal governments to establish a National Response Plan (NRP) and a National Incident Management System (NIMS).  HSPD-8, National Preparedness, describes the way Federal departments and agencies will prepare. It requires DHS to coordinate with other Federal departments and agencies—and with State, local, and Tribal governments to develop a National Preparedness Goal. Together, NIMS, the NRP, and the National Preparedness Goal define what needs to be done to prevent, protect against, respond to, and recover from a major event; how it needs to be done; and how well it needs to be done. These efforts align Federal, State, local, and Tribal entities; the private sector; and nongovernmental agencies to provide an effective and efficient national structure for preparedness, incident management, and emergency response. NIMS NIMS provides a consistent framework for incident management at all jurisdictional levels, regardless of the cause, size, or complexity of the incident. Building on the Incident Command System (ICS), NIMS provides the nation’s first responders and authorities with the same foundation for incident management for terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and all other emergencies. NIMS requires that ICS be institutionalized and used to manage all domestic incidents.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.6
  26. 26. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS NIMS (Continued) According to the NIMS Integration Center, “institutionalizing the use of ICS” means that government officials, incident managers, and emergency response organizations at all jurisdictional levels adopt the Incident Command System. Actions to institutionalizing ICS takes place at two levels—policy and organizational/operational. At the policy level, institutionalizing ICS means government officials:  Adopt ICS through executive order, proclamation or legislation as the jurisdiction’s official incident response system.  Direct that incident managers and response organizations in their jurisdictions train, exercise, and use ICS in their response operations. At the organizational/operational level, incident managers and emergency response organizations should:  Integrate ICS into functional, system-wide emergency operations policies, plans, and procedures.  Provide ICS training for responders, supervisors, and command-level officers.  Conduct exercises for responders at all levels, including responders from all disciplines and jurisdictions. NIMS integrates existing best practices into a consistent, nationwide approach to domestic incident management that is applicable at all jurisdictional levels and across functional disciplines. Six major components make up the NIMS system approach:Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.7
  27. 27. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS NIMS (Continued)  Command and Management: NIMS standard incident command structures are based on three key organizational systems:  ICS: ICS defines the operating characteristics, interactive management components, and structure of incident management and emergency response organizations engaged throughout the life cycle of an incident.  Multiagency Coordination Systems: Multiagency coordination systems define the operating characteristics, interactive management components, and organizational structure of supporting incident management entities engaged at the Federal, State, local, Tribal, and regional levels through mutual-aid agreements and other assistance arrangements.  Public Information Systems : Public information systems refer to processes, procedures, and systems for communicating timely and accurate information to the public during crisis or emergency situations.  Preparedness: Effective incident management begins with a host of preparedness activities conducted on a “steady-state” basis, well in advance of any potential incident. Preparedness involves an integrated combination of planning, training, exercises, personnel qualification and certification standards, equipment acquisition and certification standards, and publication management processes and activities.  Resource Management: NIMS defines standardized mechanisms and establishes requirements for processes to describe, inventory, mobilize, dispatch, track, and recover resources over the life cycle of an incident.  Communications and Information Management: NIMS identifies the requirements for a standardized framework for communications, information management (collection, analysis, and dissemination), and information sharing at all levels of incident management.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.8
  28. 28. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS NIMS (Continued)  Supporting Technologies: Technology and technological systems provide supporting capabilities essential to implementing and refining NIMS. These include voice and data communications systems, information management systems (e.g., recordkeeping and resource tracking), and data display systems. Also included are specialized technologies that facilitate ongoing operations and incident management activities in situations that call for unique technology-based capabilities.  Ongoing Management and Maintenance: This component establishes an activity to provide strategic direction for and oversight of NIMS, supporting both routine review and the continuous refinement of the system and its components over the long term. Additional information about NIMS can be found online at www.fema.gov/NIMS. The NRP The NRP is an all-discipline, all-hazard plan for the management of domestic incidents. The NRP provides the structure and mechanisms to coordinate and integrate incident management activities and emergency support functions across Federal, State, local, and Tribal government entities; the private sector; and nongovernmental organizations. The NRP:  Builds on what works from previous plans and incident responses. The NRP represents a true “national” framework in terms of both product and process. The NRP development process included extensive vetting and coordination with Federal, State, local, and Tribal agencies; nongovernmental organizations; private-sector entities; and the first- responder and emergency management communities across the country. The NRP incorporates best practices from a wide variety of incident management disciplines, including fire, rescue, emergency management, law enforcement, public works, and emergency medical services. The collective input received from public- and private-sector partners has been, and will continue to be, absolutely critical to implementing and refining the core concepts included in the plan.  Forges new approaches and mechanisms to address today’s threats. The NRP is not just a compilation of elements. The whole is vastly more than the sum of its parts.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.9
  29. 29. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The NRP (Continued)  Addresses the complete spectrum of incident management activities. The NRP is unique and far reaching. For the first time, the NRP eliminates critical seams and ties together a complete spectrum of incident management activities, including the prevention of, preparedness for, response to, and recovery from terrorist incidents, major natural disasters, and other major emergencies.  Uses NIMS to establish a framework for coordination among Federal, State, local, and Tribal governments; nongovernmental organizations; and the private sector. The NRP is built on NIMS, which provides a consistent doctrinal framework for incident management at all jurisdictional levels, regardless of incident cause, size, or complexity. The NRP incorporates relevant portions of and supersedes the following plans:  The Federal Response Plan (FRP).  The U.S. Government Interagency Domestic Terrorism Concept of Operations Plan (CONPLAN). The Terrorism Incident Law Enforcement and Investigation Annex of the NRP revises and replaces the CONPLAN. The annex describes the coordination of law enforcement and investigation efforts during terrorist attacks.  The Federal Radiological Emergency Response Plan (FRERP). The Nuclear/Radiological Incident Annex of the NRP revises and replaces the FRERP. The annex provides guidelines for radiological incidents that are considered Incidents of National Significance and for those that fall below the threshold of an Incident of National Significance.  Initial National Response Plan (INRP). These plans are linked to the NRP in the context of Incidents of National Significance but remain as stand-alone documents in that they also provide detailed protocols for responding to routine incidents that normally are managed by Federal agencies without the need for DHS coordination. The NRP also incorporates other existing Federal emergency response and incident management plans (with appropriate modifications and revisions) as integrated components, operational supplements, or supporting tactical plans.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.10
  30. 30. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The NRP (Continued) The NRP, as a core operational plan for national incident management, also establishes national-level coordinating structures, processes, and protocols that will be incorporated into certain existing Federal interagency incident- or hazard-specific plans (for example, the National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan) designed to implement the specific statutory authorities and responsibilities of various departments and agencies in specific contingency scenarios. The main benefit of the NRP is that it fully integrates emergency response and law enforcement elements into a single national strategy. The full text of the NRP can be downloaded at www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interweb/assetlibrary/NRP_FullText.pdf. What These Changes Mean to You Depending on your jurisdiction, the changes to the emergency planning requirements may mean little—or a lot. Minimally, the changes mean that your jurisdiction must:  Use ICS to manage all incidents, including recurring and/or planned special events.  Integrate all response agencies and entities into a single, seamless system, from the Incident Command Post, through Department Emergency Operations Centers (DEOCs) and local Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs), through the State EOC to the regional- and national-level entities.  Develop and implement a public information system.  Identify and type all resources according to established standards.  Ensure that all personnel are trained properly for the job(s) they perform.  Ensure communications interoperability and redundancy. Problems may still arise, and decisions will need to be made as an emergency unfolds, but following the guidance provided by your EOP and these new requirements will lead to a smoother and more predictable response effort.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.11
  31. 31. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Problem-Solving Model There are many different decision-making/problem-solving models that you can use. The five-step model shown below has proven effective in emergency situations. When using this model, each step may be completed quickly, but every step must be considered. It is not necessary to document each step, but it is important to think through every step. Step 1: Identify the problem Step 5: Evaluate Step 2: Explore the solution situation alternatives Step 4: Implement Step 3: Select the solution an alternative In the remainder of this unit, we will take a closer look at each of the five steps and how you can apply them to emergencies.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.12
  32. 32. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Step 1. Identify the Problem Problem identification is undoubtedly the most importantand the most difficultstep in the process. All subsequent steps will be based on how you define and assess the problem at hand. What Is a “Problem”? A problem is a situation or condition of people or the organization that will exist in the future, and that is considered undesirable by members of the Definition organization. Problem or Solution? In carrying out Step 1, you must distinguish between a problem and its solution. The most common error in problem solving is defining problems in terms of their solutions. Sometimes people think that they are articulating problems when actually they are stating a potential solution. Here’s an example: Someone might say, “The problem is that we don’t have an EOC.” The problem, however, is not that there is no EOC.  The problem is really that the emergency management community cannot coordinate communications adequately during the response phase.  Establishing an EOC is a solution. Delineating the Problem Parameters Identifying the problem also involves analyzing the situation to determine the extent of the problem. Problem parameters include:  What is happening (and is not happening).  Who is involved.  What the stakes are. On the next page is a Checklist for Identifying, Defining, and Analyzing Problems. The checklist presents a set of questions that can help you define a problem accurately. (This job aid is also provided in the Appendix for easy reference at a later time.)Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.13
  33. 33. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Step 1 Job Aid: Checklist for Identifying, Defining, and Analyzing Problems Question Yes No1. Is this a new problem?  2. Is the problem clearly and precisely stated?  3. What assumptions am I making about the problem? Are they   true?4. What would happen if nothing were done about this problem?5. Can the problem be restated in other terms? If yes, how?  6. What data are known that bear on the problem?Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.14
  34. 34. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Step 1 Job Aid: Checklist for Identifying, Defining, and Analyzing Problems (Continued) Question Yes No7. Is the information accurate?  8. Are there any precedents or rules about other procedures   that apply to the problem? If so, what precedents or rules apply?9. What additional facts are needed to analyze the problem? (List)10. Is it possible to interpret the facts differently? How would that   affect the problem’s solution?11. Do I have to make this decision, or does someone else? If   this decision is someone else’s to make, whose is it?Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.15
  35. 35. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Step 2. Explore Alternatives The second step in the decision-making process is to explore alternative solutions to the problem identified in Step 1. This step really consists of two parts:  Generating alternatives  Evaluating alternatives The case study presented below provides an opportunity to examine a problem and generate alternative solutions. Read the case study, then identify the problem and generate as many alternative solutions as you can. Case Study Case Study 2.2—What Are Your Options?Auburn, Maine is a city of 24,000 located on the Androscoggin River, 50 miles north ofPortland. Like much of southern Maine, Auburn has a growing population of retirees andelderly persons, many of whom reside in assisted-living communities.It is early December, and much of southwestern Maine has been under the influence of a low-pressure system. Unlike most nor’easters that occur regularly this time of year, however, thissystem features warm air aloft with below-freezing surface temperatures. Thus, the rain that isfalling is freezing on roads, trees, and electric lines. Electricity has been interrupted to a largeportion of the city as wires collapse under the increasing weight of the accumulating ice.At 11:00 p.m., the local emergency manager receives a call forwarded from emergencydispatch stating that the Owl’s Nest nursing home’s generator has failed. Owl’s Nest is anursing home, assisted-living community of approximately 250 residents. Of those,approximately 80 have been affected by the generator failure. These patients are in thenursing home portion of the facility, and many are chronically ill and very susceptible to theeffects of the cold and dampness. For now, the Owl’s Nest administrator has gathered theaffected residents in the recreation room and is using blankets to keep them warm. This is nota good long-term option, however, because the temperature is expected to drop into the teensby morning.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.16
  36. 36. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Answers Case Study 2.2—What Are Your Options? (Continued) Answers to the Case StudyWhat is the problem in this case study?If you determined that the problem in this case study centers around how to keep the nursinghome residents warm, your answer is correct. (Note: If your problem statement centers oneither the weather or the failed generator, please review the problem identification section ofthis unit again. Both the weather and the failed generator are causes of the current problem.)What alternatives are available?Some of the options that you may have developed for this case study could be: Evacuate the affected residents to another portion of the facility or to a shelter. Bring in more blankets, hot drinks, etc., to keep the residents warm. Bring in a portable generator and commercial space heaters.You may have developed other alternatives as well. Remember, at this point in the problem-solving process, you should be generating alternatives only, not evaluating the feasibility of thealternatives.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.17
  37. 37. UNIT 2: THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Step 2. Explore Alternatives (Continued) Techniques for Generating Alternatives So, what process did you use to generate the alternatives for the case study? There are three ways to generate alternatives.  Brainstorming can be done individually or in a group. Brainstorming requires an environment in which the participants (individuals or group members) are free to “think out loud.” Participants blurt out as many ideas as possible within a specified time period. No evaluation of ideas is permitted so as to encourage the free flow of creative ideas. These ideas are recorded. When the specified time period ends, then evaluation of the ideas begins.  Surveys economically tap the ideas of a large group of respondents. Surveys present respondents with the problem and a series of alternative solutions.  Discussion groups should consist of those who are directly involved in decision making. In generating alternatives, the group members should:  Be comprehensive.  Avoid initial judgments (as in brainstorming).  Focus on the problem, not on the personalities of the people involved in the decision-making process. (But be sensitive to the impact of personalities on the process.) Criteria for Evaluating Alternatives After you have generated alternative solutions, you must have some means of evaluating them. Step 2 Job Aid lists criteria by which you can evaluate alternatives. Another part of evaluation is identifying contingencies—what could go wrong. Think in terms of Murphy’s Law (“If anything can go wrong, it will.”) and identify what could get in the way of solving the problem you are facing.Decision Making and Problem Solving Page 2.18

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