Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning for Ethanol and Sugar production in Brazil

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Presentation of Celso Manzato for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle" …

Presentation of Celso Manzato for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"

Apresentação de Celso Manzato realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"

Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5

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  • 1. Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning for Ethanol and Sugar production in Brazil Ministry of Agriculture/ EMBRAPA Ministry of Environment Ministry Agrarian Development/ Ministry of Energy Celso Vainer Manzatto Embrapa Environment www.cnpma.embrapa.br Brasília, november 2009
  • 2. Environment Changes and Agroenergy Reduction of emissions andCarbon sequestrations; Regulatory frameworks on theenvironmental benefitsassociated with renewableenergy; Sustainability of productionand non-tariff barriers; Expansion of sugarcaneproduction and risk to foodproduction or to food safety; Expansion of the agriculturalfrontier. IPCC
  • 3. GUIDELINES to guide the expansion of production1. Agricultural Policy  Indication of areas with agricultural suitability (soil and climate) for the sugar cane cultivation, without full irrigation;  Indication of areas with land surface slope less than 12%, allowing environmentally sound production (mechanical harvest);2. Environmental Sustainability  Exclusion of areas with native vegetation (indication of areas currently under agricultural use);  Exclusion of areas for tillage in the Amazon, Pantanal (and the Upper Paraguay River Basin);3. Food Security  Decrease in direct competition with areas of food production;
  • 4. Areas without Environmental Areas with slope restrictions <12% Soil Maps Climate Data Criteria for land Criteria for Climate evaluation evaluation Land suitability Climate PotentialSugar cane climate/ Evaluation of Additional Constrains Validation by soil potential Current State Agricultural Use
  • 5. Areas with low climate risk - Without full irrigation:
  • 6. Knowledge Agricultural suitability for crops palm sugar caneSoil MappingClimate Risk Culture•  EMDS - Ecosystem Management Requirements soy Castor beans Decision Support•  Netweaver•  ArcGis
  • 7. LANDS UNDER AGRICULTURAL USAGE •  Country Total Areas => 851 Million ha. •  Agricultural suitability lands => 789 Million ha - 65% of total •  Land Use in 2002 => 232 Million ha - 27% of total
  • 8. Area Mapped Areas with Forest/ Biome/ Park / Indian Zoning Areas BIOME PROBIO Water Cover Res/ Alt Parag Basin Considered (M ha) (M ha) % (M( ha) % (M ha) %AMAZONIA 423,50 382,86 90,51 423,05 100,00 - -CAATINGA 82,58 52,61 63,72 5,05 5,98 29,96 36,28CERRADO 204,72 124,92 61,02 57,46 28,07 43,65 21,31MATA ATLÂNTICA 105,90 30,77 29,05 7,07 6,32 75,14 70,95PAMPA 17,82 9,15 51,30 0,06 3,51 8,68 48,67PANTANAL 15,12 13,38 88,46 15,12 100,00 - -TOTAL 849,18 * 613,68 72,27 508,36 59,86 157,40 18,54**SOURCE: Adapted from PROBIO, 2006. (*) Area considered in the study. (**) Relative to the area of the country Areas considered in the zoning: 18,5%
  • 9. BRAZIL: ZAE - SUGARCANE
  • 10. Lands with agricultural suitability for sugarcane production under diverse agricultural usage Potential areas in Brazil for suitability and type of use SuitabilityBrazil Classes Areas suitable for type of land use (ha) Ap Ag Ac Ap + Ag Ap + Ag + Ac 11.302.342,95 600.766,55 7.360.310,26 11.903.109,50 19.263.419,76 High (H) 22.863.866,09 2.015.247,91 16.344.644,29 24.879.114,00 41.223.758,29 Medium (M) 3.041.122,07 483.326,14 731.076,97 3.524.448,21 4.255.525,18 Low (L) 34.166.209,05 2.616.014,46 23.704.954,55 36.782.223,51 60.487.178,05 H+M 37.207.331,12 3.099.340,60 24.436.031,52 40.306.671,72 64.742.703,23 Total Areas considered suitable: 7,6 %
  • 11. Summary: ZAE - SUGARCANE Territory or Area Estimate Millions Percentage in Relation (ha) to the National TerritoryBrazilian territory (IBGE) 851,5 100,00%Lands with agricultural suitability 553,5 65,00%Lands in use 2002 (Probio Estimate) 235,5 27,70%Lands with environmental restrictions (including 694,1 81,50%the Amazon biome, Pantanal and Paraguay RiverBasin)Lands considered to the zoning without contrains 157,4 18,50%Lands with agricultural suitability for sugarcane 64,7 7,6%tillage under diverse agricultural usageLands suitable for tillage / expansion used for 34,2 4,02%pasture (high and medium suitability)Land with sugarcane production - 20081 7,1 0,90%Expansion foreseen until 2017 for the sugarcane 7,5 0,91%production²1 – Source Conab, 2009.2 – Adapted from the estimates of Energetic Research Enterprise – EPE, 2008
  • 12. Public Policy ProposalUnion implements two initiatives: 1) AEZ binds credit and establishes guidelines for states and municipalities •  Decree establishing the AEZ; •  Ordinance of the MAPA and MMA; •  Vote of the CMN; 2) AEZ – Policy that guides the sugarcane production expansion •  Bill with restrictions to the licensing of new ethanol/sugar plants and new tasks to the MAPA.
  • 13. Public Policy Proposal1) Decree establishing the AEZ and decree of MAPA and MMA •  Binds the public and private credit •  Sugarcane production: land suitability, limits the credit for areas with environmental constrains; •  Investment: expansion of ethanol plants, new ethanol plants, co-generation.2) Guidance for licensing in UF.3) Bill •  Environmental constrains •  Expansion of planting and installation of ethanol/sugar plants in the Amazon and Pantanal Biome and Upper Paraguay River Basin •  Suppression throughout the national territory of native vegetation to expand the planting of sugar cane for ethanol/sugar productions •  Constrains on the replacement of food crops •  MAPA authorizes the establishment or expansion of ethanol plants. •  Install or expand when there is injury or threat to food production or food security will not be allowed.
  • 14. BILL – SCOPE OF APPLICATION  Restrictive measures provided by the Bill, reach only the expansion of sugar cane for the production of sugar and alcohol  Areas currently planted with sugar cane are not affected  Expansion of the area of sugar cane for the production of “cachaça”, brown sugar, animal feed, and other products than sugar and alcohol are not included in the constrains  Suppression in all the national territory of native vegetation to expand the planting of sugar cane, even with the planting of crops after deforestation.
  • 15. AEZ – Sugarcane Proposal•  Exclusion of areas with native vegetationWith the validity of the act, it is prohibited the native vegetation suppression for thesugarcane culture expansion in all Brazilian territory. Areas with the predomination ofnative original vegetation will be protected, being part of restricted areas, wheresugarcane cannot be cultivated.•  Exclusion of areas for the cultivation at the biomes Amazônia, Pantanal andat the High Paraguay BasinThe ZAE Cana prohibits the sugarcane production expansion at the biomes Amazônia,Pantanal and at the High Paraguay Basin. To protect the environment, to conserve thebiodiversity and to use all the natural resources in a rational manner, new ethanolproduction units will not be able to be installed in these areas.•  Indication of areas with agricultural potential without full irrigationThe ZAE Cana has considered the climate, soil conditions and varieties of sugarcaneto select areas where the sugarcane production uses the least quantity of waterpossible.
  • 16. AEZ – Sugarcane Proposal•  Indication of areas with slope inferior to 12%Areas with surface slope up to 12% allow the use of machines at the tilling. This way it isguaranteed an adequate environmental production expansion, avoiding new clearancesof ground by fire and the emission of CO2. With the mechanical harvesting the expansionwill happen without sugarcane manual cut.•  Respect to the safe nourishingThe Bill foresees that the Ministry of Agriculture guides the sugarcane productionexpansion. This will avoid any risk to food production or for the safe nourishing.(•  Prioritize degraded or pasture areasThe ZAE Cana is an important instrument to guide public policies and credit to prioritizethe sugarcane expansion to areas already used for pasture. More than 34 millionhectares of land, which today are underused or occupied by cattle breeding anddegraded pasture, are identified at the ZAE as fit for sugarcane production. The increasein the cattle breeding productivity in Brazil (relation of bovine per hectare), todayconsidered low, can provide new spaces for sugarcane production.
  • 17. Elimination of Burning Proposal YEAR AREA MECANIZATION 2012 20% of harvest area 2014 40% of harvest area 2017 100% of harvest area Schedule similar to the one established by law in SPThese measures will allow the reduction of greenhouse gases effects in a measurement that corresponds to the emission of 6 million tons of CO2 equivalent in relation to the year of 2008.
  • 18. Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Spontaneous Expansion   414 ethanol/sugar plants in operation, 47 power plants being implanted and 23 under study;  Ethanol Plants in production and deployment meet demand by 2010;   Expansion Planning with reflections from 2010;
  • 19. Ethanol Plants: Spontaneous Expansion Ethanol Plants:   Planning   Deployment   Operating
  • 20. Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure  South Central Region: currently single integrated multimodal system of highways, railroads, pipelines and terminals for the sale of ethanol. FONTE: EPE, 2008
  • 21. Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure   Infrastructure outlets for export / domestic supply more concentrated in the Center- South States;  Spontaneous expansion of ethanol plants attached to the main location of existing infrastructure / projected (SP, MS, PR, GO, MG, MT);  Possibility to export the Project Northeast: future expansion (MA, PI, TO);  For other regions of the country, the possibility of expansion in order to regional suplement.FONTE: EPE, 2008
  • 22. Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure  Possibility to export the Project Northeast: future expansion (MA, PI, TO);  Integrating North-South Railway and Carajás to the Port of Itaqui;  Asia Market Access through the Panama Canal;  For other regions of the country, the possibility of expansion in order to regional supplement.
  • 23. Prioritization of Land for Expansion:SOURCE: EPE, 2008 Projections of Demand for Ethanol
  • 24. Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Projections of Demand for Ethanol and SugarYEAR Producti Sugar Cane Cultivated Planted Planted on of Productio Productio area (M area area Alcohol n (M ton) n (M ton) ha) alcohol sugar (B (2) (M ha) (M ha)   Projected demand of Liters) (1) 63.91 billion liters of 2008 25,6 31,8 553 7,9 4,2 3,8 ethanol by 2017; 2009 29,2 33,2 609 8,7 4,7 3,9  7.5 million hectares of 2010 33,5 34,6 677 9,6 5,5 4,1 additional land are necessary to achieve the 2011 37,6 36,0 734 10,3 6,1 4,2 future demands of 2012 42,3 37,4 800 11,2 6,8 4,4 ethanol and sugar until 2013 47,3 38,8 871 12,1 7,6 4,5 2017; 2014 51,5 40,1 929 12,8 8,2 4,6 2015 55,7 41,5 985 13,5 8,8 4,8 2016 59,8 42,9 1.029 14,1 9,2 4,8 2017 63,9 44,3 1.075 14,6 9,7 4,9Source : Adapted from EPE, 2008. Estimates of demand: (1) EPE, (2) MAPA.
  • 25. Thank you! Embrapa Environment cmanzatto@cnpma.embrapa.br www.cnpma.embrapa.br