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# Oracle Crystall ball

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Crystall is used by customers from a broad range of Industries such as aerospace, financial services, manufacturing, oil and gas, pharmaceutical, utilities, environmental sciences etc.

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• Use the next several slides as a reference tool for users, but highlight two or three points that may be applicable to this particular group or project. A simple physical model could be flying paper airplanes. It has the most basic characteristic of a model for air traffic control… multiple objects are in the air at the same time. However it isn’t a good representative since it fails to recognize the external factors that impact the flight patterns. The main point is that there are lots of types, each with their strengths and weaknesses (paper airplanes are easier for 3-D movement than an Excel spreadsheet after all.) For Monte Carlo simulation to work, we use a model that consists of mathematical and logical relationships.
• Advantages of simulation in a broad sense
• This slide outlines the process that users will go through on the road to better decisions. Points 3 and 4 are the only two points in the process that differentiate this process from one already employed by spreadsheet users. We use these additional steps not with the intention of bringing users the elusive shorter workday, but instead with the intention of providing users with the even more elusive good decision.
• Open the model “DCF Problem.xls” from the Intro Class problems folder. It is a good idea to take a few minutes to get everyone acquainted with the model. The different ways to open Crystal Ball. Basic navigation of Crystal Ball. Understanding the model logic. What sort of questions would you want to answer during the analysis.
• This introduces the different types of variables in Crystal Ball. The benefit of taking time to establish common terminology is it reduces the chance for misinterpretation.
• ### Oracle Crystall ball

1. 1. BINARY SEMANTICS Ltd. <ul><li>we are a client centric global software development company providing software development , research, web development , IT outsourcing services along with optimization and mathematical modeling solutions and consulting services for your mission-critical business challenges. We have global operations across USA, Canada, Europe and India and have over 125 satisfied customers. </li></ul><ul><li>We have very strong software engineering processes and our operations have been certified as ISO 9001 and Q9001:2000 by American Quality Assessor (AQA) for software development and supporting activities. </li></ul>www.crystalball.com
2. 2. <ul><li>Data Mining </li></ul><ul><li>TIBCO Spotfire Miner </li></ul><ul><li>SAS </li></ul><ul><li>Statistical Modelling </li></ul><ul><li>Tibco Spotfire Splus </li></ul><ul><li>SAS </li></ul><ul><li>JMP </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis & Simulation </li></ul><ul><li>Oracle Crystal Ball </li></ul><ul><li>Optmization </li></ul><ul><li>LINDO API </li></ul><ul><li>LINGO </li></ul><ul><li>What’s Best </li></ul>www.binarysemantics.com List of Solutions for Data Analysis <ul><li>Econometrics </li></ul><ul><li>EViews </li></ul><ul><li>LIMDEP </li></ul><ul><li>NLOGIT </li></ul><ul><li>Quality – Six Sigma & CMMI </li></ul><ul><li>SigmaXL </li></ul><ul><li>Pareto Pro </li></ul><ul><li>JMP </li></ul>
3. 3. Oracle crystal ball <ul><li>Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based application suite for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives and gain a competitive edge under even the most uncertain market conditions. </li></ul>www.crystalball.com
4. 4. <ul><li>Its used by customers from a broad range of Industries such as aerospace, financial services, manufacturing, oil and gas, pharmaceutical, utilities, environmental sciences etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Six sigma in manufacturing mainly & to some extent in BPO. CMM is one of the quality area in s/w areas. </li></ul>www.crystalball.com
5. 5. Crystal Ball Training Introduction to Crystal Ball Models and Simulation
6. 6. What is a model? <ul><li>Replication or representation of a real system </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing-production models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Planning-queuing models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial-forecasting models </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Spreadsheet model </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Set of mathematical and logical relationships </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vary conditions and assumptions to test scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Deterministic: data assumed to be known with certainty </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Probabilistic/stochastic </li></ul></ul></ul>www.crystalball.com
7. 7. What is Simulation? <ul><li>Process of experimenting with a model to measure performance and behavior of inputs in a system </li></ul><ul><li>Gain general insight into the nature of a process </li></ul><ul><li>Identify problems with system design </li></ul><ul><li>Manage risk by understanding costs and benefits </li></ul>www.crystalball.com
8. 8. The Five Steps of Model Development <ul><li>Develop the system flow diagram or algorithm. </li></ul><ul><li>Write an Excel spreadsheet to model the system. </li></ul><ul><li>Use Crystal Ball to model assumptions and forecasts. </li></ul><ul><li>Run the simulation and analyze the output. </li></ul><ul><li>Improve the system model and/or make decisions. </li></ul>www.crystalball.com
9. 9. Introduction to Crystal Ball Getting Started with Crystal Ball
10. 10. Getting Started <ul><li>Launching Crystal Ball </li></ul><ul><li>Basic Terminology </li></ul><ul><li>Navigation </li></ul>www.crystalball.com
11. 11. Launching Crystal Ball <ul><li>Launch automatically with Excel after Crystal Ball installation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Start>Programs>Crystal Ball 7>Application Manager </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Check the Crystal Ball box </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Start Manually </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Start menu </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Crystal Ball </li></ul></ul>
12. 12. Basic Terminology www.crystalball.com Crystal Ball Term Common Names Assumption Input, X, independent variable, random variable, probability distribution . Decision Variable Controlled variable Forecast Output, Y, f(X), dependent variable
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19. 19. Introduction to Crystal Ball Analysis and Presentation of Results
20. 20. Analysis and Presentation of Results <ul><li>Running the Simulation </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast Chart </li></ul><ul><li>Overlay Chart </li></ul><ul><li>Trend Chart </li></ul><ul><li>Custom Report Generation </li></ul><ul><li>Extract Data </li></ul><ul><li>Saving Results </li></ul>www.crystalball.com
21. 21. Introduction to Crystal Ball Basic Crystal Ball Tools
22. 22. Basic Crystal Ball Tools <ul><li>Tornado Chart - senstivity of a particularoutput cell. </li></ul><ul><li>Batch Fit - auto fit p. dist. To multiple data </li></ul><ul><li>series. </li></ul><ul><li>Correlation Matrix - view and edit full corr. Matrix for </li></ul><ul><li>a selected set of assumptions. </li></ul>www.crystalball.com
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