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  • Presentations on Food, Carbon and Water can be obtained from: John Ingram, Pep Canadell, Holger Hoff (?)
  • For the Northern hemisphere, by about 2050, the warming projected by the CGCM1 experiment for Central North America and much of Asia exceeds 3ºC, with ice covered waters in the Arctic Ocean warming by more than 5ºC. However, slower ocean circulation reduces the flow of warm water from the tropics northward and causes an area of cooling off Labrador. Similar areas of cooling are apparent in the Southern Ocean, as are areas of minimal warming in the northern Pacific. Source: MSC Climate Research Branch
  • While the summer precipitation by 2080-2100 continues to increase by large amounts over the central Pacific, the increase over western U.S. and central Canada is less than in winter. Much of the Canadian Prairies, central and southeast U.S. are projected to experience a decrease in summer rainfall. On the other hand, the projected increase in summer precipitation over Arctic regions is greater than in winter. There is also a large area of significant decrease in summer rainfall over southern Europe. Source: MSC Climate Research Branch
  • Presentations on Food, Carbon and Water can be obtained from: John Ingram, Pep Canadell, Holger Hoff (?)
  • Presentations on Food, Carbon and Water can be obtained from: Pep Canadell, John Ingram, Holger Hoff (?)

Download Congress PPT Download Congress PPT Presentation Transcript

  •  
  • Meeting the challenges of Earth System Science International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme IGBP in the next decade Guy Brasseur Chair IGBP-SC
  • The Earth is currently operating in a no-analogue state. In terms of key environmental parameters, the Earth System has recently moved well outside the range of natural variability exhibited over at least the last half million years. The nature of changes now occurring simultaneously in the Earth System, their magnitudes and rates of change are unprecedented. From: Steffen et al. 2003 View slide
  • Research Challenges for the Next Decade How dangerous is the unintended human experiment with the functioning of the Earth System? What are the anthropogenic disturbance regimes and teleperturbations that matter at the Earth System level? Which are the vital elements and functions of the Earth System that can actually be transformed by human action? What are the accessible but intolerable (for humans) domains in ’Earth System phase space’? View slide
  • Earth System Questions
    • Analytic Questions :
    • What are the major dynamical patterns, teleconnections and feedback loops in the planetary machinery?
    • What are the characteristic regimes and time-scales of natural planetary variability?
    • Methodological Questions :
    • What are the principles for constructing representations of the Earth System that aggregate away the details while retaining all systems-order items?
    • What are the most appropriate methodologies for integrating natural-science and social-science knowledge?
  • Earth System Questions
    • Normative Questions
    • What is the carrying capacity of the Earth as determined by humanitarian standards?
    • What kind of nature do modern societies want?
    • What are the equity principles that should govern global environmental management?
    • Strategic Questions :
    • What is the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation measures to respond to global change?
    • What is the optimal decomposition of the planetary surface into nature reserves and managed areas?
  • Working in the New IGBP
    • IGBP Core Projects should be regarded as resources, linking different research communities to international cross-cuting initiatives.
    • In the new IGBP, barriers between projects should be minimal, and initiatves should be taken jointly with other groups within ESSP, when appropriate.
  • Major Milestones in Earth System Research
  • The Precursor: Wladimir I. Vernadsky
    • ” The biosphere is a unique region of the Earth’s crust occupied by life.
    • There are no stronger chemical forces at the earth surface [...] than living organisms taken in their totality”.
    • 1926
  • Svante Arrhenius:The First Climate Prediction
    • Arrhenius quantifies in 1896 the changes in surface temperature (approx. 5 C) to be expected from a doubling in CO 2 , based on the concept of ”glass bowl” effect introduced in 1824 by Joseph Fourier
  • A Century of Successive Milestones
    • 1940’s and 1950’s: development of numerical weather prediction (Smagorinsky, Charney, von Neumann)
    • 1950’s and 1960’s: development of the first comprehensive climate models (Manabe)
    • 1957: Sputnik is launched
    • 1969: The first picture of the Earth is made from space (Apollo)
  •  
  • A Century of Successive Milestones
    • The ocean seen as a dynamical component of the Earth system
    • The conveyor belt (W. Broecker)
    • The thermohaline circulation (W. Munk)
    • Ventilation of the deep ocean (H. Stommel and P. Rhines)
    • The biological pump for carbon
  • After Broecker 1991
  • Change in the strength of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a number of simulations with increases in greenhouse gases Source: Cubasch et al. 2001
  • A Century of Successive Milestones
    • The role of the biosphere and in the Earth system
    • Identification of the missing CO 2 sink as being terrestrial ecosystems (Keeling, Sr and Jr., Tans)
    • Importance of vegetation-albedo feedback (e.g., instability of the Sahara by Charney)
    • The role of the biosphere in controlling the chemical composition of the natural atmosphere
    • The importance of large wildfires
  •  
  • A Century of Successive Milestones
    • The atmosphere as a ”miner’s canary” of global change
    • Increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 (D. Keeling)
    • Stratospheric ozone depletion and the Antarctic ozone hole (Crutzen, Molina, Rowland)
    • The oxidation potential of the atmosphere: the OH radical and tropospheric ozone as a global pollutant (Levy, Weinstock, Crutzen)
  •  
  • Yellow: CO Green: NOx Grey: SO2 Purple: Ozone From H. Akimoto, Frontier Program, Japan
  • A Century of Successive Milestones
    • The Earth as a nonlinear system
    • The Vostock Ice core (Oeschger, Lorius)
    • The Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles
    • The CLAW hypothesis (R. Charlson, M. Andreae, et al.)
    • The Lorenz attractors: the story of predictability.
    • The realization of the importance of the carbon cycle (B. Bolin, R. Revelle)
    • The iron fertilization (J. Martin)
  • Vostok (Antarctica): 4 glacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999)
  • Effects of GEC on terrestrial ecosystems: Multiple nonlinear processes Reynolds et al. submitted Interactions among multiple factors Nonlinear response to individual factors Nonlinear response through time Response thresholds
  •  
  • From the NOAA/CMDL GLOBALVIEW network
    • In nonlinear complex systems, minute actions can cause long term, large scale changes. These changes can be abrupt, devastating, surprising, unmanageable.
  • The Challenges
    • What is the role of the biology in the functioning of the Earth system?
    • How important is chemical and biological complexity in the functioning of the Earth system?
    • How can societies understand, anticipate and adapt to the cascading impacts of multiple interacting stresses?
    • Can human activities inadvertantly trigger abrupt changes in the Earth System, and if so what are the consequences?
    Challenges: Research Issues
  • The Challenges in 2003
    • Addressing the complexity of the Earth System
      • Observing and monitoring
      • Understanding
      • Modeling
    • Introducing the human dynamics
    • Providing stewardship to Planet Earth
  • Observing and Monitoring
  • The way ahead
    • We need to devlop a global Earth monitoring capability that captures the ”heart beat” of the Earth and provides the basis for Earth system stewardship.
    • IGOS and related initiatives should be further supported by IGBP.
    • Data assimilation methodologies applied to the entire Earth system need to be developed.
    • The Earth System Atlas will add value to existing data and facilitate interactions with users.
  •  
  • Mean BrO Columns in Polar Springs 1996 - 2001 Jens Hollwedel et al. Adv. Space Res., submitted, 2003
  • Understanding
  • A balance issue
    • Understanding requires a balance between process studies and integrative initiatives.
    • The foundation of interdisciplinary research remains the information provided by disciplines.
    • IGBP must continue to host a wide spectrum of approaches and studies.
  •  
  • Innovation
    • IGBP needs to acquire a more exploratory character, and define imaginative hypotheses involving potential complex mechanisms.
      • For example, what are the possibilities that we trigger extreme and abrupt changes?
      • What are the limits of adaptability?
  • Modeling
  • Earth System Modeling From the simplest models to explore ideas to the most detailed model to check against obserbational data. Develop data assimilation and inversion schemes. Adapt model to help in the stewardship of the Earth system.
  • Modeling: A Hierarichal Approach
    • Continue to develop classic models of the Earth system, but at the same time use tools of complex system science which recognize that the interactions between constituents parts of a system lead to the emergence of structures and to self-organization.
    • Open modeling framework in which different modules can be adapted, and different concepts can be tested.
    • The development of future models should involve stakeholders, so that they understand concepts, uncertainties, etc.
  •  
  • The Human Dimension
  • Introducing Human Dynamics
    • The Earth System will have to be viewed as a single system in which interactions between natural and social systems play a crucial role.
    • The research communities involved will have to find a common language
  • COUPLED HUMAN - ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM LAND USE UTILIZATION DECISION MAKING
    • INSTITUTIONS
      • (Banking, judicial,
      • Education)
    • POLICY
      • (Incentives,
      • Conservation,
      • Land tenure)
    • CULTURE
      • (Perception, values,
      • Ethics)
    • ECONOMY
      • (valuation, cost-profit, discounting)
    • DEMOGRAPHICS
      • (Number, gender,
      • Consumption, age)
    • BioGeochemistry
      • (soil fertility,
      • OM levels,
      • Fluxes)
    • BioDiversity
      • (Species,
      • community,
      • Landscape,
      • Genetic,
      • Functional)
    • BioPhysics
      • (albedo,
      • Energy exchange,
      • Structure)
  • The Human Dynamics
    • What is new:
    • Global scale of interactions and their impacts
    • The prospect of irreversible changes
    • The long time horizon for the consequences
    • Departure from equilibrium models to nonlinear dynamic processes with cascades, phase changes, bifurcations, abrupt transitions, etc.
  • Natural and Social Sciences: The Northwestern Passage
    • I am looking for the ”passage” between natural and human sciences. The way is not simple. It is as difficult as traveling through the famous Canadian Northwestern passage.
    • The Nortwestern passage gets open, gets closed, meanders accross the immense fractal Arctic region through an extremely complicated route. Random distribution and strong regular constraints, disorder and laws.
    • R. Amundsen got through the passage at the begining of the 20th century. This had been a dream for 400 years.
    • I am still dreaming of such an accomplishment on the side of knowledge.
            • Adapted from Michel Serres, French Philosopher,
            • Hermes V, The Northwestern Passage, 1980.
  • Stewardship of the Earth System
  • Stewardship in the Haze
    • Human-driven changes are pushing the Earth system into planetary terra incognita
    • Management options include merry ignorance, maximum precaution, judicious avoidance and systemic regularizions. Earth system models can help choising between these options.
            • John Schellnhuber
  • Have our priorities been well chosen?
    • Has research focused on ”reducing uncertainties” provided information needed by decision-makers?
    • Is it possible that such research has actually impeded effective policymaking?
    • Policymakers accept lack of certainty as a condition of life
    • Paper by Pileke, Jr. And D. Sarewitz, 2003
  • Science for curiosity or for policy makers?
    • Has the current research focus distracted the scientific community from addressing more policy relevant questions such as reduction of vulnerability, resilience and adaptation strategies and limits, ecosystem management, decarbonization of our energy system, etc.?
    • How should decisions be made in a world of scientific uncertainties?
  • Two Illustrations
    • Excursion in the intolerable domains caused by exceeding thresholds:
    • Falling water table in the high plains of the US
    • Fisheries
    • The responsability of the scientific community is to provide this type of information to decision-makers.
  • Falling water table: The High Plains Aquifer 1850-1980
  • Temperature patterns will change substantially by 2050 Annual mean
  • In addition to becoming warmer on average, the interior of North America is expected to become drier Summers 2080-2100 Canadian Climate Centre Model
  • and in 2000…. Biomass of table fish in 1900 (Christensen et al. 2003; Fish and Fisheries )
  • New IGBP Initiatives
  • Integrated Regional Studies
    • After the sucessful LBA study, new initiatives
      • South Asian Monsoon
      • West African Monsoon
    • Conceptual frameworks (i.e., integrated simulators) must be developed for drawing information into a coherent global picture
  • AMMA ‘CONTINENTAL’ WINDOW
  • Global Role of Tropical Atmosphere
  • Fast-track Initiatives
    • Fast-track Studies will be initiated to address a specific scientific question in a more integrated fashion than at the Core Project level.
    • A Fast-track study is established for a defined period (often 2-3 years) and produces a seminal paper or 'milestone' book on the topic, something that really advances the field.
  • Fast Track Initiatives
    • Global nitrogen cycle
    • The role of fires in the global environment
    • Iron fertilization
    • Chemical Contaminants
    • Global Emission inventories
    • The Global Change Atlas
  • Atmosphere Terrestrial Ecosystems Aquatic Ecosystems Human Activities Groundwater Effects Surface water Effects Coastal Effects Stratospheric Effects Energy Production PM & Visibility Effects Ozone Effects Agroecosystem Effects NH x Food Production NO x NO x Crop Animal People (Food; Fiber) Soil NO 3 The Nitrogen Cascade NH 3 --Indicates denitrification potential N org Forests & Grassland Soil Ocean Effects N 2 O GH Effects N 2 O
  • Integration
    • Through links between IGBP Core Projects
    • Through ESSP Joint Projects
    • Through Integrated Refional Studies
    • Through Fast Track Initiatives
    • Through a new IGBP Science Coordinator
    • Through a new ESSP Task Force for Earth System Modeling
  • Integration: ESSAI
    • The integration conducted by GAIM within IGBP will be elevated to the ESSP level.
    • This new E arth S ystem S ynthesis, A nalysis and I ntegration (ESSAI) will consider
      • The development of a hierarchy of coupled climate and earth system models (with WCRP)
      • The development of more explorative studies, especially on the coupled human/natural dynamical systems (with IHDP).
  • The Earth System Atlas
    • The Earth System Atlas will provide through an open process a web-based interactive product accessible to the scientific community, which will be able to interact with peer-evaluated products of relevance for earth system science at the global and regional scales.
  • Capacity Building
    • Capacity building is inextricably linked to achieving success in any Earth System Science endeavour.
    • Enhance scientist-scientist, group-to-group, and institution-to-institution collaboration, as well as collaboration of developing country scientists in international programs
    • Consider new sources of funding including those provided by development agencies
  • How do we measure success?
    • How much ignorance have turned into knowledge by IGBP activities?
    • What is the structure of our ”knowledge space”?
  • Thanks
    • Thanks to all of you for coming from far away
    • Wendy Broadgate for the overall organization of the Congress
    • Joao Morais for the organization of the meeting of the National Committees
  • Thanks
    • The Stockholm Secretariat
      • Elise Wannman
      • Charlotte Wilson-Boss
      • Clemencia Widlund
      • Suzanne Nash
    • Assistance from Canberre
      • Rowena Foster
      • Margo Davies
  • Thanks
    • Will Steffen for his overall leadership and inspiration over the last 5 years.
    • We had great discussions, we started working towards new initiatives.
    • The new IGBP is definitely different from the first phase of the Program.
    • It will be a very exciting and high quality program.
  • The End
  •  
  •  
  •  
  • From Phase I to Phase II of IGBP
    • 1999-2003 : integration and synthesis, transition and new structure
    2003-2012: IGBP II : new scientific questions, new structure
  • CHARACTERISTICS OF IGBP II
    • More integrative, more interdisciplinary
    • Global change versus climate change
    • Strong base in biogeochemical sciences
    • More emphasis on issues of societal concern
    • More emphasis on the regional scale
    • Strategic partnerships via the Earth System Science Partnership (ESS-P)
  •  
  • Earth System Science Partnership
  • Aerosol Climate Interactions Hydrologic Cycle Chemistry Transport Aerosols Surface Climate Surface Shading Atm Heating J.T. Kiehl
  • Aerosol Biosphere Interactions Aerosols Marine Biosphere Terrestrial Biosphere Mineral Dust Nitrates C S Hydrologic Cycle J.T. Kiehl