Bill Stankiewicz Copy 2010 Georgia Logistics Summit   Paul Bingham   Ihs Global Insight
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Bill Stankiewicz Copy 2010 Georgia Logistics Summit Paul Bingham Ihs Global Insight

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Best Regards,

Bill Stankiewicz
Vice President and General Manager
Shippers Warehouse of Georgia
Office: 678-364-3475
Williams@shipperswarehouse.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/billstankiewicz2006
http://www.slideshare.net/BillStankiewicz.
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Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail
“Change doesn\'t start on the surface. It\'s generated from consciousness.”
Deepak Chopra

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    Bill Stankiewicz Copy 2010 Georgia Logistics Summit   Paul Bingham   Ihs Global Insight Bill Stankiewicz Copy 2010 Georgia Logistics Summit Paul Bingham Ihs Global Insight Presentation Transcript

    • 2010 GEORGIA LOGISTICS SUMMIT National & International Trade Outlook Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Commerce and Transportation IHS Global Insight Cobb Galleria Center, Atlanta April 29, 2010
    • Trade Demand Follows Recovery from Recession • Trade demand recovery varies across a multi-speed world – Asia in the fast lane, Europe in the slow lane, and the U.S. in between • Debt levels influence the speed and shape of the recovery by region and country, most visible now in Southern Europe • Asia is increasing its role in generating global growth and this is evident in patterns of U.S. and world trade • The long-term downward pressure on the dollar exchange rate remains, even as it appreciates against the euro in the near term • Helps U.S. export competitiveness; dampens import demand • Near-term U.S. trade recovery will moderate after inventories are rebuilt; long-term trade volumes still grow faster than the economy 2 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Trade volumes reflect goods production which is more volatile than the economy as a whole (Percent change) 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Real GDP Industrial Production Source: IHS Global Insight 3 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • In World Economic Growth by Sector, Trade Fell the Most and Comes Back Strongest (Percent change in real value) 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 GDP Private Fixed Government Exports Consumption Investment Consumption 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight 4 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Trade Shifts Vary with Industry Output by Region (Percent change in industrial production) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 NAFTA Western Asia- Other Emerging Mideast-N. Sub- Europe Pacific Americas Europe Africa Saharan Africa 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight 5 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Trade Recovery by Commodity is Not Uniform, as Stage of Recovery Varies By Industry Sector • Manufacturing recovery best for Autos, Metals, Chemicals and Commodities • Output won’t reach pre-recession levels for several years • High commodity prices challenge sectors that use them • Strong recovery for Information, Technology and Communications, recovering to former levels and above • Banking / Finance stabilizes in U.S. (2010) and Europe (2011), but recovery is affected by bad loans and de leveraging • Commercial / consumer credit availability still constrained • Continued, though select, push for infrastructure supports trade related to transportation, communications and utilities • Construction and related trade faces disappointing markets 6 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Global Merchandise Trade Recovers by Next Year (Trillions of U.S. dollars) 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Air Sea Land/Other Source: IHS Global Insight World Trade Service 7 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • The U.S. Recovery: Picking Up Steam • Underlying 2010 U.S. GDP growth forecast near 3.0% • Steep recoveries usually follow steep recessions, but recoveries after financial crises are usually slower • Consumer spending growth faces the headwind of still-high unemployment, but spending is now the strongest in three years • Business spending on equipment (and services) and inventory rebuilding are boosting growth, as seen in freight and trade • Non-residential construction and state-and-local spending will be a drag on the recovery of the economy into 2011 • Housing construction will struggle to get off the bottom • Excess capacity will restrain wage and price inflation 8 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • The U.S. Economic Recovery Advances (Annual percent change) (Percent) 8 11 6 10 4 9 2 8 0 7 -2 6 -4 5 -6 4 -8 3 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Real GDP Growth (Left scale) Unemployment Rate (Right scale) Source: IHS Global Insight 9 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Industrial Production Outpaces Real GDP (Percent change) 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 -2.5 -5.0 -7.5 -10.0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 U.S. Real GDP Industrial Production Source: IHS Global Insight 10 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Recovery Pace Varies by Business Size Cyclical Indicators Rising; Small Business Lagging ISM Diffusion Indexes, 50 = breakeven NFIB Index,1986=100 60 100 98 55 96 50 94 92 45 90 88 40 86 35 84 82 30 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 ISM Manufacturing ISM Non-Manufacturing NFIB Small-Business Source: IHS Global Insight 11 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Among U.S. Economic Growth by Sector Fastest Growth in 2010 is in Trade (Percent change) 2009 2010 2011 2012 Real GDP -2.4 3.0 3.0 3.3 Consumption -0.6 2.4 2.7 2.5 Residential Investment -20.5 0.8 27.5 22.5 Business Fixed Investment -17.8 1.7 7.6 11.9 Federal Government 5.2 3.8 -2.5 -3.4 State & Local Govt. -0.2 -1.2 0.4 0.6 Exports -9.6 11.9 7.8 7.3 Imports -13.9 10.2 7.9 6.6 Source: IHS Global Insight 12 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • U.S. Consumer Spending Growth: Durable Goods Most Volatile, Strong Influence on Trade Volumes (Percent change, chained 2005 dollars) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Services 13 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Inventory Cycle Boosts U.S. Exports and Imports (Percent change annualized rate, volumes) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Real U.S. Exports Real U.S. Imports Source: IHS Global Insight 14 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • U.S. Inventory Cycle Led to the Q4 Growth Spurt (Annualized real rate of growth in U.S., Q/Q, percent) 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP Final Sales Source: IHS Global Insight 15 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Recession Impacts on Logistics Trade recession led to underutilized U.S. logistics system capacity across seaports, airports, terminals, railroads, trucking, warehousing and labor. Providers reduced deployed capacity where they could. Consequences: • Trade recovery faces capacity bottlenecks; vessel and air cargo capacity not back to pre-recession levels, despite size of idled equipment fleet. • Freight captured by truck from intermodal rail during recession likely to shift back again, as rates and relative costs of trucking increase • Still-improving intermodal rail service continues to capture line-haul long-distance trucking, reducing trucking average length of haul. • Continued evolution of trade gateways from shipper demands and carriers optimizing operations and services 16 Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
    • Thank you! Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Commerce and Transportation paul.bingham@ihsglobalinsight.com 202.481.9216