2009 Bob Costello Presentation

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You are viewing presentations from conferences that I have attended. Please enjoy & if we can help you with any logistics projects in the Americas please contact me at 678.364.3475

Bill was also on the Board of Directors for the St.Vincent DePaul Foodbank in Roseville California helping with the fund raising and meals to the poor program. While based in Northern California he was successful in fund raising programs for the Crusade of Mercy and helped Father Dan Madigan at the Sacramento Food Bank also. For 2008, Bill is a member of the Board for WORKTEC on also an Advisory Board Member for Boys and Girls Club for Metro Atlanta-Clayton County Chapter. See www.worktec.biz or www.bgcma.org . Bill is also on the Board of Directors for the Southeastern Warehouse Association & represents Georgia for 2010-2012.

Regards,

Bill Stankiewicz
Vice President and General Manager
Shippers Warehouse
Email: williams@shipperswarehouse.com
www.shipperswarehousega.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/billstankiewicz2006
http://twitter.com/BillStankiewicz
http://www.topexecutivesnet.com/index.aspx

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2009 Bob Costello Presentation

  1. 1. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update March 3, 2009 Bob CostelloChief Economist & Vice PresidentAmerican Trucking Associations
  2. 2. Macroeconomic View
  3. 3. Worst U.S. Economy in Decades (Real GDP, 2000 dollars) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  4. 4. Worst U.S. Economy in Decades (Real GDP, 2000 dollars) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  5. 5. Fiscal Stimulus Impacts (Real GDP, Annual percent change) 3% 2% 1% Baseline No Stimulus 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2008 2009 2010Source: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  6. 6. U.S. Economic Growth Slips Well Below Potential (Real GDP, Annual percent change, 2000 dollars) 8 Forecast Starts with Q1 2009 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  7. 7. Broad-based Recession (Real GDP, 2000 dollars) Total Consumption Nonresidential Fixed Investment Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government 10.0% State & Local Government 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0% 2008 2009Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  8. 8. Inflation No Longer a Concern, but Deflation is the New Threat (Consumer Prices) 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% First annual drop since 1955 -3% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Sources: IHS Global Insight, Department of Labor, and ATA
  9. 9. Interest Rates to Remain Low in 2009 (Average Quarterly Data; Percentage) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Fed Funds Rate 30-year MortgageSources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  10. 10. Consumer Outlook: Many Headwinds
  11. 11. U.S. Employment Millions; Seasonally Adjusted 139 Through January 2009 137 Unemployment rate will reach 10% before the labor market improves. 135 133 2008 was the largest drop since 1946. 131 129 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Sources: Department of Labor and ATA
  12. 12. Fiscal Stimulus Impacts (Cumulative job losses from the peak, millions) 0-1-2 Baseline No Stimulus-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 Q4:07 Q1:08 Q2:08 Q3:08 Q4:08 Q1:09 Q2:09 Q3:09 Q4:09 Q1:10 Q2:10 Q3:10 Q4:10Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  13. 13. U.S. Unemployment Rate Percent 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Sources: Department of Labor, ATA, IHS Global Insight
  14. 14. Housing Price Index Average Annual Growth Rate: -8.5%200 2006 – 2008175150125100 75 50 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007Sources: S&P/Case-Shiller National Index and ATA
  15. 15. U.S. Housing Starts (Millions of Units) 466,000 in January 2009 2 1 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Sources: IHS Global Insight, Department of Commerce, and ATA
  16. 16. Household Debt Service Ratio Percentage of Disposable Personal Income15.014.013.012.011.010.0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA
  17. 17. Consumer Spending on Durables Is Hit Hard in This Recession (Percent change, chained 2000 dollars) Fact: Households have lost $8 trillion of their net worth since the summer of 2007, which is enough to reduce consumer spending by $400 billion, or 4%. 7 5 3 1 -1 -3 -5 -7 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Durable Goods Nondurable GoodsSources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  18. 18. Industrial Outlook
  19. 19. Industrial Production (Includes Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities; Percent Change) 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  20. 20. U.S. Manufacturing Production Through January 2009; 2000 = 100 115.0 110.0 105.0 Already a 13.0% drop peak-to-trough with more to come 100.0 6.8% drop peak-to-trough 95.0 90.0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Sources: Federal Reserve Board and ATA
  21. 21. Light Vehicle Sales (Millions of Units) 18 16 14 12 10 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA
  22. 22. Total Business Inventories-to- Inventories-to- Sales Ratio 1.6 (Includes retail, wholesale, and manufacturing; Through December 2008) Inventories are bloated 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Sources: Department of Commerce and ATA
  23. 23. U.S. Trucking Industry
  24. 24. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage For- Index125 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100 Through January 2009120115110105 Already a 13.4% drop peak-to-trough100 with more to come 9.3% drop peak-to-trough 95 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Source: ATA
  25. 25. For- For-hire Trucking Employment Millions; Seasonally Adjusted 1.46 Through January 2009 1.44 1.42 1.40 1.38 1.36 Employment fell 75,000 in 2008 and 1.34 25,000 in January 2009 alone. 1.32 1.30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Sources: Department of Labor and ATA
  26. 26. ATA’s For-Hire TL Loads Index For-125 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100120 Through December 2008115110105100 Largest six-month drop since ATA began collecting the data in 1993: 95 -23.2% 90 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: ATA
  27. 27. ATA’s For-Hire TL Dry Van Loads For- Index Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100120 Through December 200811511010510095908580 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: ATA
  28. 28. ATA’s For-Hire TL Refrigerated For- Loads Index125 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100120115 Through December 20081101051009590858075 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: ATA
  29. 29. ATA’s For-Hire TL Flatbed Loads For- Index140 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100130120110100 Through December 20089080 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: ATA
  30. 30. ATA’s For-Hire TL Tank Loads For- Index160 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100150140 Through December 2008130120110100 90 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: ATA
  31. 31. Cumulative Decrease in Loads July 2008 through December 2008 0% -5% Reefer -10% -15% -20% -25% Dry Van Tank -30% Flatbed -35%Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
  32. 32. Cumulative Decrease in Loads July 2008 through December 2008 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Med-Haul -25% Short-Haul -30% Long-Haul -35%Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
  33. 33. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Revenue For- Index150140 2000=100; Through December 200813012011010090 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: ATA
  34. 34. Truck capacity will tighten once a recovery commences, but untilthen it will be difficult for fleets.
  35. 35. Truckload Demand vs Supply Through December 2008; 2000 = 100 120 175 Demand: ATA’s For-Hire TL For- Loads Index (left scale) 165 115 155 110 145 105 135 125 100 Supply: ATA’s For-Hire TL For- 115 95 Tractor Index (right scale) 105 90 95 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
  36. 36. Trucking Failures 1,400 1,200 Failures only includes fleets with at least five trucks 1,000 800 600 400 200 Q1 00 Q1 01 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Trucking FailuresSource: Avondale Partners, LLC
  37. 37. Net Change in TL Fleet 1% 0% -0.4% -1% -2% -2.6% -3% 2007 2008Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
  38. 38. U.S. Used Class 8 Tractor Exports 25,000 20,000 Nigeria Russia 15,000 Rest of the World 10,000 5,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: US Trade Data
  39. 39. In the long-run, trucking long-capacity will remain tight due to the driver shortage.
  40. 40. Line- Line-Haul Driver Turnover 140% Annualized Rates 120% 113% 100% 87% Q3:2007 80% 65% 58% Q3:2008 60% 40% 20% 9% 9% 0% Large TL Small TL LTLSource: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
  41. 41. Energy Price Outlook
  42. 42. On- On-Highway Diesel Prices Price Per Gallon Record: $4.76 $4.90 (07/14/08) $4.40 $3.90 $3.40 $2.90 $2.40 $1.90 $2.13 $1.40 (02/23/09) $0.90 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08Source: Energy Information Administration
  43. 43. Crude Oil Prices WTI, US$ per Barrel$110$100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Source: IHS Global Insight
  44. 44. Retail Diesel Prices US$ per Gallon$4.50$4.00$3.50$3.00$2.50$2.00$1.50$1.00$0.50$0.00 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Source: IHS Global Insight & ATA
  45. 45. Thanks!

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