Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2
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Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2

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Main presentation slides from the Reed Construction Data Oct 17, 2013 webinar: "The 2014 Outlook: Emerging Opportunities for Construction"

Main presentation slides from the Reed Construction Data Oct 17, 2013 webinar: "The 2014 Outlook: Emerging Opportunities for Construction"

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Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2 Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2 Presentation Transcript

  • Commercial construction turned around in 2012 and is expected to continue to improve
  • Construction spending and its components $ Billions 1,400 History 1,300 Forecast 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 02 03 04 Residential 05 06 07 08 09 Nonresidential Building 10 11 12 13 14 Heavy Construction Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 15
  • Reed total starts (3-month moving average year-over-year) 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Source: Reed Construction Data
  • Total construction spending 1,250 Billion $, SAAR 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 750 700 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • Residential construction continues to improve
  • Residential construction spending components 800 $ Billions History 700 Forecast 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 02 03 04 05 06 Improvements 07 08 09 10 Single-family Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 11 12 13 Multifamily 14 15
  • Reed residential starts (3-month moving average year-over-year) 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Source: Reed Construction Data
  • New residential construction spending Billion $, SAAR 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
  • Residential construction spending components 450 $ Billions 400 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 350 2003 2013 2014 2015 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Single-Family Multifamily Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Improvements
  • Nonresidential building construction has struggled lately, but is expected to improve over the remainder of this year and strengthen further in 2014 and 2015
  • Reed nonresidential building starts (3-month moving average year-over-year) 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Source: Reed Construction Data
  • Nonresidential construction spending Billion $, SAAR 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • Nonresidential spending components 100 90 80 70 $ Billions 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Hotel/Lodging Office Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Commerical
  • Nonresidential spending components 110 $ Billions 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Religious Healthcare Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Education
  • Nonresidential spending components 70 $ Billions 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Public safety Amusement and recreation Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Manufacturing
  • Heavy engineering (non-building) construction held up best over the last few years
  • Despite considerable challenges, the outlook for heavy engineering construction is fairly positive
  • Reed heavy engineering starts (3-month moving average year-over-year) 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Source: Reed Construction Data
  • Heavy engineering construction spending Billion $, SAAR 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • Heavy engineering spending components 130 120 $ Billions 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Transportation Communication Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Power
  • Heavy engineering spending components 110 $ Billions 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Highway Water and Sewer Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Conservation
  • Regional economic performance
  • Economic performance of the states Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
  • Economic performance of the states Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
  • Connect with Reed Construction Data  Twitter twitter.com/Bmarkstein  Twitter twitter.com/ReedConstrData  Facebook www.facebook.com/Reed-Construction-Data  LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/company/reed-construction-data  Web www.reedconstructiondata.com
  • Contact information and links Bernard M. Markstein  Office: 301-588-5190  Mobile: 404-952-3381  b.markstein@reedbusiness.com  U.S. Forecast and Commentary: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/marketintelligence/articles/  Blog: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/marketintelligence/bernie-markstein/