NAPF Annual Meeting
February 28, 2014
Outlook for the Economy and
Construction
Presented by: Bernard M. Markstein
Reed U.S. Chief Economist
3
4
5
6
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
7
The U.S.
Economy
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
8
State of the U.S. Economy
 Economy improving, but weather muddles the numbers....
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
9
Risks to the Economy
 The Fed and interest rates
 Significant cuts in governm...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
10
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3-Month Moving Average, Year...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
02 03 04 0...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
12
Residential construction is
recovering, but from a low level
 Single-family h...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
13
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 20...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
14
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 7...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
17
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Yea...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
18
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Im...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
19
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Single-Family Multifamily Improvements
$ ...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
20
Nonresidential
Building
Construction
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
21
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Ye...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
22
275 269
283
302
340
404
438
376
290
284
298 299
317
343
0
50
100
150
200
250
3...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
23
Heavy engineering
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
24
Reed Heavy Engineering Starts
(3-Mo MA YoY)
Source: Reed Construction Data
-40...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
25
171 171 169
185
208
248
272 274
265
251
272
263
278
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
3...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Transportation Communication Power
$ ...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Highway Water and Sewer Conservation
$ Billio...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
28
Regional economic
performance
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
29Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
30Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
31
Connect with Reed Construction Data
 Twitter
twitter.com/Bmarkstein
 Twitter...
Outlook for the Economy and Construction
32
Contact Information and Links
Bernard M. Markstein
 Office: 301-588-5190
 Mo...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Construction Charts from National Association of Pipe Fabricators Annual Meeting Feb 2014

130

Published on

Charts from a presentation I made to the National Association of Pipe Fabricators (NAPF) Annual Meeting Feb 28, 2014 on the outlook for construction with an emphasis on residential and water & sewer

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
130
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Construction Charts from National Association of Pipe Fabricators Annual Meeting Feb 2014

  1. 1. NAPF Annual Meeting February 28, 2014
  2. 2. Outlook for the Economy and Construction Presented by: Bernard M. Markstein Reed U.S. Chief Economist
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. 4
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. 6
  7. 7. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 7 The U.S. Economy
  8. 8. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 8 State of the U.S. Economy  Economy improving, but weather muddles the numbers. What is really going on?  Employment growing, but should be faster  Inflation moderate (too low?)  The Fed has started to taper  Housing/residential construction a positive
  9. 9. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 9 Risks to the Economy  The Fed and interest rates  Significant cuts in government spending in the near term  Europe  European government debt default  The euro  Energy (oil) prices
  10. 10. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 10 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change Reed Total Starts (3-Mo MA YoY) Source: Reed Construction Data
  11. 11. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 11 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction $ Billions History Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Forecast Forecast: Construction to improve Construction Spending and its Components
  12. 12. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 12 Residential construction is recovering, but from a low level  Single-family housing market is on the mend, but much further to go before it is back to normal  Multifamily market has largely recovered, but still some room for growth
  13. 13. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 13 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Thousands of Units, SAAR Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade Low Estimate (1.4 million starts per year) Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade High Estimate (1.8 million starts per year) Total Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average) Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  14. 14. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 14 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Thousands of Units, SAAR Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade Low Estimate (1.15 million starts per year) Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade High Estimate (1.45 million starts per year) Single-Family Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average) Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  15. 15. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 15 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Thousands of Units, SAAR Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade Low Estimate (250,000 starts per year) Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade High Estimate (350,000 starts per year) Multifamily Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average) Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  16. 16. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 16 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Thousands of Units, SAAR Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade High Estimate (350,000 starts per year) Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade Low Estimate (250,000 starts per year) Multifamily Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average) Source: U.S. Census -Bureau
  17. 17. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 17 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change Reed Residential Starts (3-Mo MA YoY) Source: Reed Construction Data
  18. 18. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 18 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Improvements Single-family Multifamily $ Billions Residential Spending Components Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data History Forecast
  19. 19. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 19 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Single-Family Multifamily Improvements $ Billions 2006 to 2013 ’14 ’15 Residential Construction Spending Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
  20. 20. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 20 Nonresidential Building Construction
  21. 21. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 21 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change Reed Nonresidential Starts (3-Mo MA YoY) Source: Reed Construction Data
  22. 22. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 22 275 269 283 302 340 404 438 376 290 284 298 299 317 343 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 $ Billions History Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Forecast Nonresidential Construction Spending
  23. 23. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 23 Heavy engineering
  24. 24. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 24 Reed Heavy Engineering Starts (3-Mo MA YoY) Source: Reed Construction Data -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
  25. 25. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 25 171 171 169 185 208 248 272 274 265 251 272 263 278 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 $ Billions History Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Forecast Heavy Engineering Construction Spending
  26. 26. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 26 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Transportation Communication Power $ Billions 2006 to 2013 ’14 ’15 Heavy Engineering Construction Spending Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
  27. 27. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 27 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Highway Water and Sewer Conservation $ Billions 2006 to 2013 ’14 ’15 Heavy Engineering Construction Spending Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
  28. 28. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 28 Regional economic performance
  29. 29. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 29Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
  30. 30. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 30Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
  31. 31. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 31 Connect with Reed Construction Data  Twitter twitter.com/Bmarkstein  Twitter twitter.com/ReedConstrData  Facebook www.facebook.com/Reed-Construction-Data  LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/company/reed-construction-data  web www.reedconstructiondata.com
  32. 32. Outlook for the Economy and Construction 32 Contact Information and Links Bernard M. Markstein  Office: 301-588-5190  Mobile: 404-952-3381  b.markstein@reedbusiness.com  U.S. Forecast and Commentary: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/market- intelligence/articles/  Blog: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/market- intelligence/bernie-markstein/
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×