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LOTS OF EXAMPLES

30 “EASY STEPS” TO SPOT A BUBBLE
*WARNING: CONTAINS MEMES
Everything* (well, almost) you wanted to know about bubbles, but were too
afraid to ask – stylishly combined in a single n...
NO, NOT
THAT KIND
OF BUBBLE
(well ok …maybe kind off
slightly similar …)

ctdblog.northwestern.edu
WHY SHOULD YOU CARE?
BECAUSE YOU PROBABLY
DON’T WANT THIS TO
HAPPEN TO YOU …
flickr - danielmoyle
OR THIS …
AND MAYBE NOT THIS …
eideard.com – art by Banksy (graffiti artist)
PROBABLY NOT THIS EITHER
…
AND DEFINITELY NOT THIS:
DEFINITION OF 'BUBBLE'

“A surge in (equity) prices, often more than
warranted by the fundamentals and usually in a
partic...
AND ANOTHER
DEFINITION OF 'BUBBLE'

“Speculative or market bubbles occur when
prices rise far higher than can be justified...
FEATURES:
• Chats to your friends when you
don’t want to
• Jabbertalky™ battery – charges
itself each time you talk
• Me-g...
beatlemania culturexchange1.wordpress.com
CONSUMERS START RE-SELLING
P
R
I
C
E

H
Y
P
E

0
TIME

PRICE GOES UP,
HYPE INCREASES
SUPPLY CHAIN
PROBLEMS…

photoblog.nbcnews.com

unitenews.wordpress.com

www.sail3oceans.wordpress.com

reuters
P
R
I
C
E

H
Y
P
E

0
TIME

DUE TO SCARCITY AND DEMAND,
THE PRICE GOES UP, AND UP
onedirectionland2.blogspot.com
P
R
I
C
E

H
Y
P
E

0
TIME

…UP, AND UP, AND UP …
THE NEXT DAY…

Unsplash.Com
ANOTHER NEW

EXCITING
PRODUCT LAUNCHES,
RENDERING THIS
PRODUCT
P
R
I
C
E

H
Y
P
E

0
TIME

PRICE PLUNGES
THROUGH THE FLOOR
THOSE WHO THOUGHT
THAT PRICES WILL KEEP ON
RISING, AND INVESTED
WHEN PRICES ACTUALLY
PEAKED, ARE NOW
PRACTICALLY GIVING AW...
IF YOU THINK MY EXAMPLE WAS A BIT
OTT OR UNREALISTIC …
NOW IMAGINE THE NEXT DAY AFTER
YOU BOUGHT THAT PHONE ON
EBAY….

FLAPPY BIRD
COMES BACK !
IF THIS
HAPPENED TO
YOU …
e.g. Bought Flappy Phone here

P
R
I
C
E

H
Y
P
E

0
TIME
HOW WOULD
YOU FEEL?
THAT WAS A
SIMPLIFIED & MOSTLY
FICTIONAL EXAMPLE
NOW LET’S LOOK AT …

Wing-Chi Poon Wikicommons.com
YOU ARE PROBABLY
WONDERING WHAT CAN YOU
POSSIBLY CAN LEARN FROM THE
PAST …. IT’S HISTORY !?

www.unsplash.com
www.unsplash.com
www.unsplash.com
The following section deals specifically with major historical bubbles. Each separate
bubble is available as a separate pr...
On previous page the orange frame
denotes independent hyperlinked
presentations:
- Viewing on Mobile – clicking the
hyperl...
Click on title below to visit this presentation

Flickr - The shifted librarian
Click on title below to visit this presentation

WIKICOMMONS. -Petar Milošević
Click on title below to visit this presentation

wtf.thebizzare.com
Click on title below to visit this presentation
Click on title below to visit this presentation
Click on title below to visit this presentation

www.dailyfresher.com
www.unsplash.com
THROUGH THE YEARS THERE HAVE BEEN
MANY OTHER BUBBLES - IF YOU WANT,
ALSO LOOK INTO :
• THE SOUTH SEA BUBBLE (1711-1720)
• ...
kingwicked.deviantart.com
flickr Kalexanderson
Unsplash.com
BUBBLES CAN HAPPEN WITH
ALMOST ANY COMMODITY, IN
ALMOST ANY MARKET*, ALL
OVER THE WORLD, WHEN THE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE...
.
graphics.ucsd.edu~iman Soap_bubbles_RGB
SUPPLY &
DEMAND

Markets are affected by
VARIOUS FACTORS e.g. supply
and demand, which can
change over time.
Scarcity, as ...
FEAR &
GREED

When sellers or buyers get
GREEDY or become SCARED,
they may behave differently
from their normal behaviour....
KNOWYOURMEME.COM
BUBBLES CAN BE
VERY COMPLEX

There may be many cocontributing factors leading
to the build-up or blow-off
phase of a marke...
COMPLEX
(Cont.)

Due to the potentially
complex nature and
interrelationships of many
variables, market bubbles do
not nec...
A TICKING
TIME BOMB

It is theoretically possible to
prevent or slow down a
bubble, or maybe even turn
market conditions a...
BUBBLES CAN
BE TOXIC

As can be seen from the
Asian Debt Crisis and Subprime Crisis, even though
bubbles are first observe...
tumblr
like this presentation
so far ?

Tweet a friend.
DURING THE
BUILD UP AND BLOW OFF PHASE
OF A BUBBLE,
MANY OF THE FOLLOWING
(BUT NOT NECESSARILY ALL),
MAY BE OCCUR
STAGES OF A BUBBLE

economist.com
THE S QU NCE MIGHT DIFFER SLIGHTLY
THAN INDICATED HERE, HOWEVER
MORE OR LESS ALL OF THE FOLLOWING
HAPPENS
THE UNDERLYING
BUSINESS IDEA(S) COULD BE A
SOLUTION / APP / CONCEPT FOR:

__________________
E.g. this could be a solution...
2
DEBT
IS PLENTIFUL AND CREDIT
EASILY ATTAINABLE
MONEY FLOWS LIKE WATER

oldgregg.net/bob/halloween2009/themound.jpg
credit
3

THE CONCEPT MAY HOWEVER BE A BIT

COMPLEX AND CANNOT BE
FULLY EXPLAINED OR
EASILY UNDERSTOOD.

IF IT CONTAINS A NEW FIN...
http://www.usagold.com/op-ed/cartoons.html
4

INVESTOR
EXCITEMENT
BUILDS

AND EVERYBODY WANTS TO

JUMP ON THE BAND
WAGON,
MANY WITH EXCESS LEVERAGE
www.myconfinedspa...
5

PRICE STARTS TAKING OFF

LIKE A ROCKET…

WELL ABOVE RECENT MARKET
AVERAGES AND SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
RETURNS, WHICH FUEL ...
6

CENTRAL BANKS, REGULATORY
AGENCIES OR SIMILAR ROLE PLAYERS
MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY IN
COMING TO TERMS WITH THIS SUDDE...
pandawhale.com
bitcoinexaminer.org/18-awesome-bitcoin-memes/
7
6

EXPERTS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
ACADEMICS
PROUDLY ANNOUNCE THE

NEW PARADIGM
AND JUSTIFY ANOMALIES WITH

therealsingapore.c...
8

OLD SCHOOL VALUATION
METHODS ARE

THROWN OUT OF THE WINDOW
IN FAVOUR OF MORE RADICAL AND UNTESTED

“NEW ECONOMY”
VALUAT...
MEMEGENERATOR.NET
9

MEDIA HYPE BUILDS EXCITEMENT
IN THE MARKET
10

SOME
MARKET PLAYERS MAY SEE

EXCITING NEW
OPPORTUNITIES
myblessedwestlife.files.wordpress.com
1
blogspot.com
1

CLONES

OR REASONABLE COPIES MAY
APPEAR, OFFERING BASICALLY THE
SAME VALUE PROPOSITION,
HOPING TO

CASH IN ON THE TREND...
bitcointalk.org
1

NOBODY WANTS TO BE LEFT BEHIND

(FOMO*)
NOVICE INVESTORS ARE SUCKED IN BY THE
PROMISE OF EASY MONEY

INVESTORS START TA...
www.hdwallpapers.org
1
GREED AND OVERLY POSITIVE
MARKET SENTIMENT
PUSHES THE MARKET WAY BEYOND THE
FUNDAMENTALS INTO UNCHARTERED AND
RISKY TERR...
Looney Tunes
1

TRADITIONALLY CAUTIOUS
AND CONSERVATIVE FUND

MANAGERS START THROWING

CAUTION TO THE WIND

dilbert.com © Scott Adams
1

INVESTORS AND
MARKET PARTICIPANTS
LIVE THE HIGH LIFE

http://www.fandango.com
EXCITED BY ALL THE HYPE, EVERYBODY
AND HIS DOG START INVESTING
THE ROOKIE INVESTORS LOVE TO
SHARE THEIR HOT TIPS ON WHERE TO
INVEST FOR A QUICK PROFIT
1

CENTRAL BANKS MAY GO
THROUGH VARIOUS ROUNDS OF

CREDIT TIGHTENING IN ORDER TO
CURB SPENDING AND LENDING
1
1

EVEN THE CAUTIOUS
INVESTORS ARE PULLED IN

dilbert.com – © Scott Adams
mattsouthern.com
2

GOVERNMENTS MAY
ATTEMPT TO
IMPLEMENT

ADDITIONAL
INDUSTRY
REGULATIONS AT
THIS LATE STAGE.
THIS MAY HAVE

UNINTENDED
CON...
1

THE MARKET STALLS, EVERYBODY
HOLDS ON TO THEIR RICHES.
NOBODY WANTS TO BUY

BECAUSE THEY DON’T THINK THE
PRICE WILL INCREASE FURTHER.
2

BUT THEN THE

UNTHINKABLE
HAPPENS…
Pinterest – Heroikx
www.pinterest.com
3

VOLUME INCREASES
AND

PRICES START
DROPPING
looney tunes
4

DESPERATE SELLERS MAY AT FIRST
TRY TO CONTAIN LOSSES

Jerry Maguire (1996) TriStar Pictures
INVESTORS SOON DO ANYTHING TO

5

GET RID OFF SHARES
LOSSES ARE
SUBSTANTIAL

6

AND GROWING BY THE DAY –
THE AVERAGE INVESTOR LOSES HIS …

Deviant art Propaganda_Panda
COMMISSIONS OF ENQUIRY
ARE LAUNCHED TO DETERMINE POSSIBLE
CAUSES OF THE CRASH.

7

ON OPENING THE CAN, THEY MIGHT

FIND AL...
NON-DISCLOSURES, CONFLICTS OF
INTEREST, INSUFFICIENT REGULATORY
OVERSIGHT, VIOLATIONS OF
ACCOUNTING POLICY, AND POSSIBLY
E...
8

SOME MAY FEEL STRONG URGES OF
SPONTANEOUS CREATIVITY
SOMEBODY
HAS TO TAKE THE BLAME

lgsquirrel.files.wordpress.com
Southparkstudios.com
9

SCEPTICS AND DISSENTERS FIND THEIR VOICE
AGAIN AND SPEAK OUT

MOSTLY TO SAY

“TOLD YOU SO”
LIFE SLOWLY
RETURNS TO NORMAL.
MEANWHILE
SOMEWHERE …
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
SPIKE PUBLIC INTEREST
AND SPIKE SOME MORE

www.businessofbitcoin.com
Meme- reddit.com
http://www.kulfoto.com
Contact details: benjaminv.za@gmail.com
This presentation is provided in the sake of public interest and for broad consume...
The following section contains a list of information sources and suggested reading material.
Tulip Bubble:
http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/
crashes2.asp
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/
2013...
Railway Bubble
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/1929-crash/
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket-crash-1929.asp
h...
1929 Wall Street Crash
http://globaltrehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall
_Street_Crash_of_1929
http://www.thebubblebubble....
Asia Debt and Currency Crisis
http://www.ifg.org/khor.html
http://www.tradingeconomics.com
http://internationalinvest.abou...
Dot.com bubble
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/dot-combubble/
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dotcombubble.asp
http://w...
Sub-prime crisis / housing bubble
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-FCIC/pdf/GPO-FCIC.pdf
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pd...
30 Criteria
Condensed and adjusted from Sources of the various
aforementioned sections, in addition to the following:
http...
Bubble Spotting Omnibus 2014
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Bubble Spotting Omnibus 2014

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The Bubble Spotting Omnibus presentation takes you through some of the significant financial investment bubbles of the past, and identifies some of the key characteristics and commonalities between these bubbles.

This presentation provides an easy-to-understand explanation on a serious and often difficult-to-understand topic. It covers many attributes that typically are exhibited or may happen in the process of building-up, and bust of a financial bubble. This is explained with practical examples and some memes.

Hope you find it interesting. Feedback appreciated.

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Transcript of "Bubble Spotting Omnibus 2014"

  1. 1. LOTS OF EXAMPLES 30 “EASY STEPS” TO SPOT A BUBBLE *WARNING: CONTAINS MEMES
  2. 2. Everything* (well, almost) you wanted to know about bubbles, but were too afraid to ask – stylishly combined in a single nifty presentation. *Obviously one presentation cannot cover everything Cover page art: Minions –”Despicable me” © Universal Pictures – (wallpaper)
  3. 3. NO, NOT THAT KIND OF BUBBLE (well ok …maybe kind off slightly similar …) ctdblog.northwestern.edu
  4. 4. WHY SHOULD YOU CARE? BECAUSE YOU PROBABLY DON’T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN TO YOU … flickr - danielmoyle
  5. 5. OR THIS …
  6. 6. AND MAYBE NOT THIS … eideard.com – art by Banksy (graffiti artist)
  7. 7. PROBABLY NOT THIS EITHER …
  8. 8. AND DEFINITELY NOT THIS:
  9. 9. DEFINITION OF 'BUBBLE' “A surge in (equity) prices, often more than warranted by the fundamentals and usually in a particular sector, followed by a drastic drop in prices as a massive sell-off occurs.” Investopedia.com pixabay.com - adriana7_9
  10. 10. AND ANOTHER DEFINITION OF 'BUBBLE' “Speculative or market bubbles occur when prices rise far higher than can be justified by fundamentals and for no other reason than that investors believe that something bought today can be sold at a higher price in the future. Bubbles can occur in any tradeable item or instrument, from tech stocks to tulips.” Reuters.com pixabay.com - adriana7_9
  11. 11. FEATURES: • Chats to your friends when you don’t want to • Jabbertalky™ battery – charges itself each time you talk • Me-gination ™ (32 patents pending) - codes and sells THE apps YOU DREAM ABOUT • NETIZEN © reports your neighbours for not paying tax – free airtime reward ! • Solves unemployment and brings about world peace Terms and conditions apply: • Max 1 X unit per customer • Accessories and world peace-beta sold separately The-Window-Phone-Concept www.shutupandtakemymoney.org
  12. 12. beatlemania culturexchange1.wordpress.com
  13. 13. CONSUMERS START RE-SELLING P R I C E H Y P E 0 TIME PRICE GOES UP, HYPE INCREASES
  14. 14. SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS… photoblog.nbcnews.com unitenews.wordpress.com www.sail3oceans.wordpress.com reuters
  15. 15. P R I C E H Y P E 0 TIME DUE TO SCARCITY AND DEMAND, THE PRICE GOES UP, AND UP
  16. 16. onedirectionland2.blogspot.com
  17. 17. P R I C E H Y P E 0 TIME …UP, AND UP, AND UP …
  18. 18. THE NEXT DAY… Unsplash.Com
  19. 19. ANOTHER NEW EXCITING PRODUCT LAUNCHES, RENDERING THIS PRODUCT
  20. 20. P R I C E H Y P E 0 TIME PRICE PLUNGES THROUGH THE FLOOR
  21. 21. THOSE WHO THOUGHT THAT PRICES WILL KEEP ON RISING, AND INVESTED WHEN PRICES ACTUALLY PEAKED, ARE NOW PRACTICALLY GIVING AWAY THE PHONE FOR FREE JUST TO GET LITTLE MONEY BACK (ASSUMING SHORT SELLING IS NOT POSSIBLE) www.kamagrashop.uk.com
  22. 22. IF YOU THINK MY EXAMPLE WAS A BIT OTT OR UNREALISTIC …
  23. 23. NOW IMAGINE THE NEXT DAY AFTER YOU BOUGHT THAT PHONE ON EBAY…. FLAPPY BIRD COMES BACK !
  24. 24. IF THIS HAPPENED TO YOU …
  25. 25. e.g. Bought Flappy Phone here P R I C E H Y P E 0 TIME
  26. 26. HOW WOULD YOU FEEL?
  27. 27. THAT WAS A SIMPLIFIED & MOSTLY FICTIONAL EXAMPLE NOW LET’S LOOK AT … Wing-Chi Poon Wikicommons.com
  28. 28. YOU ARE PROBABLY WONDERING WHAT CAN YOU POSSIBLY CAN LEARN FROM THE PAST …. IT’S HISTORY !? www.unsplash.com
  29. 29. www.unsplash.com
  30. 30. www.unsplash.com
  31. 31. The following section deals specifically with major historical bubbles. Each separate bubble is available as a separate presentation, and has been hyper-linked to this presentation. It is highly recommended to read each of these quick summaries.
  32. 32. On previous page the orange frame denotes independent hyperlinked presentations: - Viewing on Mobile – clicking the hyperlink will connect you to the next presentation - Viewing on PC – clicking on the hyperlink should open a new window
  33. 33. Click on title below to visit this presentation Flickr - The shifted librarian
  34. 34. Click on title below to visit this presentation WIKICOMMONS. -Petar Milošević
  35. 35. Click on title below to visit this presentation wtf.thebizzare.com
  36. 36. Click on title below to visit this presentation
  37. 37. Click on title below to visit this presentation
  38. 38. Click on title below to visit this presentation www.dailyfresher.com
  39. 39. www.unsplash.com
  40. 40. THROUGH THE YEARS THERE HAVE BEEN MANY OTHER BUBBLES - IF YOU WANT, ALSO LOOK INTO : • THE SOUTH SEA BUBBLE (1711-1720) • THE MISSISSIPPI BUBBLE (1716-1720) • THE FLORIDA PROPERTY BUBBLE OF THE 1920S • KUWAIT’S SOUK AL-MANAKH STOCK BUBBLE & CRASH 1982 • STOCK MARKET CRASH OF 1987 • JAPAN’S BUBBLE ECONOMY OF THE 1980S Unsplash.com
  41. 41. kingwicked.deviantart.com
  42. 42. flickr Kalexanderson
  43. 43. Unsplash.com
  44. 44. BUBBLES CAN HAPPEN WITH ALMOST ANY COMMODITY, IN ALMOST ANY MARKET*, ALL OVER THE WORLD, WHEN THE CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE. * MORE LIKELY IN ACTIVELY TRADED MARKETS
  45. 45. . graphics.ucsd.edu~iman Soap_bubbles_RGB
  46. 46. SUPPLY & DEMAND Markets are affected by VARIOUS FACTORS e.g. supply and demand, which can change over time. Scarcity, as well as supply vs, demand (and many other factors) can have a direct impact on the price.
  47. 47. FEAR & GREED When sellers or buyers get GREEDY or become SCARED, they may behave differently from their normal behaviour. This behaviour can have a SIGNIFICANT and sometimes UNEXPECTED impact on the markets, and on prices. http://www.4shared.com Deviantart - krizeii
  48. 48. KNOWYOURMEME.COM
  49. 49. BUBBLES CAN BE VERY COMPLEX There may be many cocontributing factors leading to the build-up or blow-off phase of a market bubble. These factors may behave either directly or indirectly proportional, independently or lag one another. E.g. the initial low interest rates (which contributed to an increase in demand), may already have increased significantly, however the net effect is that demand has not yet cooled down and is still increasing. http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/may/10/getting-to-the-bottom-of-foamy-physics
  50. 50. COMPLEX (Cont.) Due to the potentially complex nature and interrelationships of many variables, market bubbles do not necessarily end with a single “pop” or “big bang” event. Contributing factors may peak and “pop” independently, and not all necessarily have an equal effect. Using the analogy of a complex bubble rising in the air (similar to picture indicated above), once a sufficient number of the independent (but connected) bubbles cease to exist or reduce in size, the complex bubble as a whole will lose momentum, and will begin to drop, ultimately ceasing to exist.
  51. 51. A TICKING TIME BOMB It is theoretically possible to prevent or slow down a bubble, or maybe even turn market conditions around back to normal. But the process is complex and difficult. Too much or too little of the right or wrong thing, at the wrong time, invariably leads to unintended consequences.
  52. 52. BUBBLES CAN BE TOXIC As can be seen from the Asian Debt Crisis and Subprime Crisis, even though bubbles are first observed in one product (or market), the possibility exists that CONTAGION can spread to other products or markets. (due to complex underlying financial transactions or the instruments involved and their interrelationships).
  53. 53. tumblr
  54. 54. like this presentation so far ? Tweet a friend.
  55. 55. DURING THE BUILD UP AND BLOW OFF PHASE OF A BUBBLE, MANY OF THE FOLLOWING (BUT NOT NECESSARILY ALL), MAY BE OCCUR
  56. 56. STAGES OF A BUBBLE economist.com
  57. 57. THE S QU NCE MIGHT DIFFER SLIGHTLY THAN INDICATED HERE, HOWEVER MORE OR LESS ALL OF THE FOLLOWING HAPPENS
  58. 58. THE UNDERLYING BUSINESS IDEA(S) COULD BE A SOLUTION / APP / CONCEPT FOR: __________________ E.g. this could be a solution / app for a) taking notes, b) Booking taxis, c) Alternative currency, d) Or …. flickr -nhuisman
  59. 59. 2 DEBT IS PLENTIFUL AND CREDIT EASILY ATTAINABLE MONEY FLOWS LIKE WATER oldgregg.net/bob/halloween2009/themound.jpg
  60. 60. credit
  61. 61. 3 THE CONCEPT MAY HOWEVER BE A BIT COMPLEX AND CANNOT BE FULLY EXPLAINED OR EASILY UNDERSTOOD. IF IT CONTAINS A NEW FINANCIAL DERIVATIVE, BE EXTRA CAREFUL
  62. 62. http://www.usagold.com/op-ed/cartoons.html
  63. 63. 4 INVESTOR EXCITEMENT BUILDS AND EVERYBODY WANTS TO JUMP ON THE BAND WAGON, MANY WITH EXCESS LEVERAGE www.myconfinedspace.com/2010/07/18/overloaded-train/overloaded-train-2/
  64. 64. 5 PRICE STARTS TAKING OFF LIKE A ROCKET… WELL ABOVE RECENT MARKET AVERAGES AND SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE RETURNS, WHICH FUEL EXPECTATIONS OF EVEN HIGHER PRICE INCREASES. VOLUME STARTS SPIKING TOO commoditiesman.files.wordpress.com
  65. 65. 6 CENTRAL BANKS, REGULATORY AGENCIES OR SIMILAR ROLE PLAYERS MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY IN COMING TO TERMS WITH THIS SUDDEN NEW MARKET PHENOMENON (OR WARN AGAINST IT, OR CHOOSE TO IGNORE IT)
  66. 66. pandawhale.com
  67. 67. bitcoinexaminer.org/18-awesome-bitcoin-memes/
  68. 68. 7 6 EXPERTS AND POSSIBLY EVEN ACADEMICS PROUDLY ANNOUNCE THE NEW PARADIGM AND JUSTIFY ANOMALIES WITH therealsingapore.com NEW ERA THEORIES
  69. 69. 8 OLD SCHOOL VALUATION METHODS ARE THROWN OUT OF THE WINDOW IN FAVOUR OF MORE RADICAL AND UNTESTED “NEW ECONOMY” VALUATION APPROACHES
  70. 70. MEMEGENERATOR.NET
  71. 71. 9 MEDIA HYPE BUILDS EXCITEMENT IN THE MARKET
  72. 72. 10 SOME MARKET PLAYERS MAY SEE EXCITING NEW OPPORTUNITIES
  73. 73. myblessedwestlife.files.wordpress.com
  74. 74. 1 blogspot.com
  75. 75. 1 CLONES OR REASONABLE COPIES MAY APPEAR, OFFERING BASICALLY THE SAME VALUE PROPOSITION, HOPING TO CASH IN ON THE TREND onlyhdwallpapers.com the matrix agent smith
  76. 76. bitcointalk.org
  77. 77. 1 NOBODY WANTS TO BE LEFT BEHIND (FOMO*) NOVICE INVESTORS ARE SUCKED IN BY THE PROMISE OF EASY MONEY INVESTORS START TAKING ON MORE RISK THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD *FEAR OF MISSING OUT
  78. 78. www.hdwallpapers.org
  79. 79. 1 GREED AND OVERLY POSITIVE MARKET SENTIMENT PUSHES THE MARKET WAY BEYOND THE FUNDAMENTALS INTO UNCHARTERED AND RISKY TERRITORY Looney Tunes
  80. 80. Looney Tunes
  81. 81. 1 TRADITIONALLY CAUTIOUS AND CONSERVATIVE FUND MANAGERS START THROWING CAUTION TO THE WIND dilbert.com © Scott Adams
  82. 82. 1 INVESTORS AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS LIVE THE HIGH LIFE http://www.fandango.com
  83. 83. EXCITED BY ALL THE HYPE, EVERYBODY AND HIS DOG START INVESTING
  84. 84. THE ROOKIE INVESTORS LOVE TO SHARE THEIR HOT TIPS ON WHERE TO INVEST FOR A QUICK PROFIT
  85. 85. 1 CENTRAL BANKS MAY GO THROUGH VARIOUS ROUNDS OF CREDIT TIGHTENING IN ORDER TO CURB SPENDING AND LENDING
  86. 86. 1
  87. 87. 1 EVEN THE CAUTIOUS INVESTORS ARE PULLED IN dilbert.com – © Scott Adams
  88. 88. mattsouthern.com
  89. 89. 2 GOVERNMENTS MAY ATTEMPT TO IMPLEMENT ADDITIONAL INDUSTRY REGULATIONS AT THIS LATE STAGE. THIS MAY HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. Far-Side – © Gary Larson
  90. 90. 1 THE MARKET STALLS, EVERYBODY HOLDS ON TO THEIR RICHES.
  91. 91. NOBODY WANTS TO BUY BECAUSE THEY DON’T THINK THE PRICE WILL INCREASE FURTHER.
  92. 92. 2 BUT THEN THE UNTHINKABLE HAPPENS…
  93. 93. Pinterest – Heroikx
  94. 94. www.pinterest.com
  95. 95. 3 VOLUME INCREASES AND PRICES START DROPPING looney tunes
  96. 96. 4 DESPERATE SELLERS MAY AT FIRST TRY TO CONTAIN LOSSES Jerry Maguire (1996) TriStar Pictures
  97. 97. INVESTORS SOON DO ANYTHING TO 5 GET RID OFF SHARES
  98. 98. LOSSES ARE SUBSTANTIAL 6 AND GROWING BY THE DAY – THE AVERAGE INVESTOR LOSES HIS … Deviant art Propaganda_Panda
  99. 99. COMMISSIONS OF ENQUIRY ARE LAUNCHED TO DETERMINE POSSIBLE CAUSES OF THE CRASH. 7 ON OPENING THE CAN, THEY MIGHT FIND ALL KINDS OF WORMS. deviantart.- in-tays-head
  100. 100. NON-DISCLOSURES, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, INSUFFICIENT REGULATORY OVERSIGHT, VIOLATIONS OF ACCOUNTING POLICY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN WORSE www.addletters.com
  101. 101. 8 SOME MAY FEEL STRONG URGES OF SPONTANEOUS CREATIVITY
  102. 102. SOMEBODY HAS TO TAKE THE BLAME lgsquirrel.files.wordpress.com
  103. 103. Southparkstudios.com
  104. 104. 9 SCEPTICS AND DISSENTERS FIND THEIR VOICE AGAIN AND SPEAK OUT MOSTLY TO SAY “TOLD YOU SO”
  105. 105. LIFE SLOWLY RETURNS TO NORMAL. MEANWHILE SOMEWHERE …
  106. 106. NEW DEVELOPMENTS SPIKE PUBLIC INTEREST
  107. 107. AND SPIKE SOME MORE www.businessofbitcoin.com Meme- reddit.com
  108. 108. http://www.kulfoto.com
  109. 109. Contact details: benjaminv.za@gmail.com This presentation is provided in the sake of public interest and for broad consumer educational non-profit purposes, and has been compiled based on publically available information sources on the web. While great care has been taken in the preparation and compilation of information indicated here, the author does not accept any legal or other liability for any inaccuracy, mistake, misstatement or any other error of whatsoever nature contained herein. This presentation is not investment advice, not a solicitation for any type of investment, financial or otherwise, nor is this presentation an opinion expressed on, nor endorsement of markets, commodities or investments. Any names, trademarks and images are copyright their respective owners and rights in the graphic artwork and photos used in this presentation belongs to, and are courtesy of the respective owners thereof. Unless where otherwise indicated, I don’t claim to have any rights therein.
  110. 110. The following section contains a list of information sources and suggested reading material.
  111. 111. Tulip Bubble: http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/ crashes2.asp http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/ 2013/10/economic-history http://www.thebubblebubble.com/tulip-mania/ http://www.damninteresting.com/the-dutch-tulipbubble-of-1637/ http://www.thetulipomania.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
  112. 112. Railway Bubble http://www.thebubblebubble.com/1929-crash/ http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket-crash-1929.asp http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/01/21/usmarket-crashes-idUSL2126592320080121 http://www3.nd.edu/~jstiver/FIN462/US%20Mar ket%20Crashes.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_o f_1929
  113. 113. 1929 Wall Street Crash http://globaltrehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall _Street_Crash_of_1929 http://www.thebubblebubble.com/1929-crash/ http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket-crash-1929.asp http://www3.nd.edu/~jstiver/FIN462/US%20Mar ket%20Crashes.pdf http://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/blog/2013/0 6/28/fridays-not-so-fun-fact-the-1929-stockmarket-crash/ http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/01/21/usmarket-crashes-idUSL2126592320080121 http://globaltrendtraders.com/stock-marketcrash/learning-from-the-stock-market-crash-of1929/
  114. 114. Asia Debt and Currency Crisis http://www.ifg.org/khor.html http://www.tradingeconomics.com http://internationalinvest.about.com/od/gettingst arted/a/What-Was-The-Asian-Financial-Crisis.htm http://www.wright.edu/~tdung/asiancrisishill.htm http://www.fes.de/ipg/ipg2_98/debschulmeister. html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial _crisis http://pendientedemigracion.ucm.es/info/eid/pb /ICEIwp10.pdf http://www.uv.es/~mperezs/intpoleco/Lecturco mp/Geoeconomia%20y%20Globalizacion/Asian% 20crisis%20de%20King.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2012/0 31312.pdf http://www.ucm.es/info/icei/asia/Bustweb1.htm HTtp://www.newyorkfed.org/research/economist s/pesenti/whatjapwor.pdf http://www.twnside.org.sg/title/fire-cn.htm https://www.mtholyoke.edu/courses/sgabriel/ile ne_grabel.htm http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/ 2006/cpem/pdf/kihwan.pdf
  115. 115. Dot.com bubble http://www.thebubblebubble.com/dot-combubble/ http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dotcombubble.asp http://www.moneycrashers.com/dot-combubble-burst/ http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-thedot-com-bubble-began-and-why-it-popped-2010-12 http://www.scaruffi.com/politics/sv.html http://www.cnet.com/1990-11136_1-62783871.html http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/ 2012/fincrises/pdf/ch12.pdf http://www.cnet.com/1990-11136_1-62783871.html http://www.cnet.com/1990-11136_1-62783871.html http://thenextweb.com/entrepreneur/2011/10/2 7/17-dot-com-failures-and-their-moderncounterparts/#!qzNFE http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble Also See Irrational Exuberance - Robert Shiller Extraordinary Delusions and the Popular Madness of Crowds - Charles Mackay
  116. 116. Sub-prime crisis / housing bubble http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-FCIC/pdf/GPO-FCIC.pdf http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/riseandfallexcerpt.pdf http://www.oecd.org/finance/financial-markets/40451721.pdf http://www.slideshare.net/robinthieu/subprime-mortgage-crisis2008-presentation-646026 http://www.slideshare.net/amarranu/sl-vs-subprime-final http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttr acker/ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZc hK__XUF84 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/02/04/business/200 90205-bailout-totals-graphic.html?_r=0 http://www.conservapedia.com/Financial_Crisis_of_2008 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142412788732405970 4578473310943230002 http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttr acker/ http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/housing_bubble.asp http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009 /07/what-caused-the-housing-bubble.html The Journal of Business Inquiry http://www.uvu.edu/woodbury/jbi/volume8/journals/Sum maryofthePrimaryCauseoftheHousingBubble.pdf http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB12381122571645324 3 http://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctorecon/2002/january/federal-funds-discount-rate-2001 http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2012/finc rises/pdf/ch12.pdf http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/bailout-total-29616-trillion-dollars/ http://www.conservapedia.com/Financial_Crisis_of_2008 http://topinfopost.com/2013/12/18/700-billion-bankbailout-was-a-lie-it-was-secretly-7-trillion
  117. 117. 30 Criteria Condensed and adjusted from Sources of the various aforementioned sections, in addition to the following: http://www.solerinvestments.com/Online-Trading/Stock-MarketCrash.html http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~%20adamodar/New_Home_Page/inv fables/bubbles.htm http://sandyyadav.com/2013/11/18/stock-market-bubbles-laws/ http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/markets/five-criteria-toidentify-asset-bubbles.html http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/26/market-panic-vinesmarkets-equities-asia.html http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1209/5-ways-tospot-the-next-stock-bubble---and-avoid-it.aspx http://sabew.org/2009/08/how-to-spot-the-next-investmentbubble-2/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble flickr Kalexanderson

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