Transportation in the US and China, Roy Kienitz (June 2012)

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Roy Kienitz, transportation policy trends in US and implications for China.

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Transportation in the US and China, Roy Kienitz (June 2012)

  1. 1. TRANSPORTATION IN THE UNITED STATES New Trends and Implications For China Roy Kienitz Email: roy@roykienitz.com June 2012
  2. 2. MOST PEOPLE’S IDEA OF AMERICA:House in the suburbs and a car
  3. 3. WHEN EVERYONE LIVES THIS WAY IT TAKES UP A LOT OF SPACE
  4. 4. AND ONE CAR IS NOT ENOUGH
  5. 5. THE RESULT: MORE CARS PER HOUSEHOLD AND MORE DRIVING PER PERSONWHAT BEGAN AS A CHOICE BECAME A NECESSITY
  6. 6. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  7. 7. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,500 Average of 2.5% Growth Per Year2,0001,5001,000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  8. 8. ONE RESULT OF BUILDING THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEMConstruction: 45 Years (1956-2001)Length: 47,000 miles (75,000 km)Cost: $500 billion (2010 Dollars)
  9. 9. Rural Highways – “Inter-State” Urban Highways 50 Percent of Funds 50 Percent of Funds
  10. 10. FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDSDID NOT CHANGE FOR ALMOST 30 YEARS
  11. 11. US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000800,000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 - 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  12. 12. US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000800,000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 - 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  13. 13. AIRPORT CONSTRUCTION HELPED AIR TRAVEL GROW
  14. 14. 27,000 FLIGHTS PER DAY
  15. 15. A GROWING PROBLEM:Return on investment for spending on surface transportation has been declining -- law of diminishing returns
  16. 16. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  17. 17. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2012 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  18. 18. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2012 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,5002,000 No growth 2004 to 20121,500 – 8 Years1,000 Decline Began in 2007, Before Financial Crisis of 2008-09 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  19. 19. Driving Per Person, 1985- 2011
  20. 20. Driving Per Person, 1985- 2011 US GDP grew 8 percent during this period while driving per person fell 6 percent
  21. 21. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DRIVING, 1999 - 2011 (GDP in constant 2005 Dollars, VMT in miles driven, 1999 = 100)130%120%110%100% GDP (2005 Dollars) Miles Driven90%80% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
  22. 22. UNTIL 2004 A GROWING ECONOMY = MORE DRIVINGNOW THE ECONOMY CAN GROW WITHOUT MORE DRIVING25 Ratio of Growth in GDP to Growth in Driving (5-Year Average) 1985 - 2008201510 5 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
  23. 23. MORE BICYCLE LANES ARE BEING BUILTMiles of Protected Bikeway Per 100,000 Residents, 9 U.S. Cities, 2000 and 2010 Average Increase of 74% Over 10 Years In These 9 Cities
  24. 24. FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS
  25. 25. FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS
  26. 26. US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000800,000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 - 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  27. 27. US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2011800,000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 - 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  28. 28. HIGH SPEED RAIL INVESTMENT BEGAN IN 2009
  29. 29. IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION1: COST• Transportation is a cost of doing business – cheaper is better• Transportation policy emphasizing public transportation has high cost for government but low cost for families.• Transportation policy emphasizing the car has high cost for both government and families• A system build around public transportation has lower total costs• Difference can be as much as 8% of GDP
  30. 30. IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION2: CITY PLANNING, LARGE SCALE• Public transportation is very effective in serving a well-planned city• This requires directing new jobs and housing to land served by Metro lines• Un-coordinated urban development is very hard to serve with even the best public transportation system• City must learn to say no to development that cannot be served by public transportation• Mixing uses is key – jobs and housing in separate areas requires more trips and longer trips
  31. 31. IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION3: CITY PLANNING: SMALL SCALE• People using public transportation must get to and from stations -- walking and cycling.• For public transportation to work the city must be built for walking and cycling• Super-blocks are the worst kind of design for walking and cycling• Small things add up: parking policy, bike sharing, car sharing, traffic signal priority for buses
  32. 32. IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION4: THE POWER OF THE BUS• Beijing (other Chinese cities?) have wide streets• Changan Jie – 14 lanes?• There is room to create bus-only lanes, the key to good Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)• One expressway lane dedicated to buses in the peak hour has similar theoretical capacity as a new metro – (800 buses per hour, 65 people per bus = 52,000 people per hour for BRT; Metro capacity can reach 60,000 per hour)• Cost is MUCH lower, can be implemented much more quickly• Single BRT lines do not meet their potential until they are part of a connected network
  33. 33. CONCLUSIONS• Recent US experience shows that the economy can grow even as car use falls• Cities do not need to fear measures to reduce car use if they do it thoughtfully• Solving transportation in mega-cities is not possible without addressing land use and property development

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