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Transportation in the US and China, Roy Kienitz (June 2012)
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Transportation in the US and China, Roy Kienitz (June 2012)

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Roy Kienitz, transportation policy trends in US and implications for China.

Roy Kienitz, transportation policy trends in US and implications for China.

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  • 1. TRANSPORTATION IN THE UNITED STATES New Trends and Implications For China Roy Kienitz Email: roy@roykienitz.com June 2012
  • 2. MOST PEOPLE’S IDEA OF AMERICA:House in the suburbs and a car
  • 3. WHEN EVERYONE LIVES THIS WAY IT TAKES UP A LOT OF SPACE
  • 4. AND ONE CAR IS NOT ENOUGH
  • 5. THE RESULT: MORE CARS PER HOUSEHOLD AND MORE DRIVING PER PERSONWHAT BEGAN AS A CHOICE BECAME A NECESSITY
  • 6. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • 7. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,500 Average of 2.5% Growth Per Year2,0001,5001,000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • 8. ONE RESULT OF BUILDING THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEMConstruction: 45 Years (1956-2001)Length: 47,000 miles (75,000 km)Cost: $500 billion (2010 Dollars)
  • 9. Rural Highways – “Inter-State” Urban Highways 50 Percent of Funds 50 Percent of Funds
  • 10. FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDSDID NOT CHANGE FOR ALMOST 30 YEARS
  • 11. US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000800,000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 - 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 12. US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000800,000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 - 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 13. AIRPORT CONSTRUCTION HELPED AIR TRAVEL GROW
  • 14. 27,000 FLIGHTS PER DAY
  • 15. A GROWING PROBLEM:Return on investment for spending on surface transportation has been declining -- law of diminishing returns
  • 16. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • 17. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2012 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • 18. Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2012 (Billions of Miles Per Year)3,5003,0002,5002,000 No growth 2004 to 20121,500 – 8 Years1,000 Decline Began in 2007, Before Financial Crisis of 2008-09 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • 19. Driving Per Person, 1985- 2011
  • 20. Driving Per Person, 1985- 2011 US GDP grew 8 percent during this period while driving per person fell 6 percent
  • 21. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DRIVING, 1999 - 2011 (GDP in constant 2005 Dollars, VMT in miles driven, 1999 = 100)130%120%110%100% GDP (2005 Dollars) Miles Driven90%80% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
  • 22. UNTIL 2004 A GROWING ECONOMY = MORE DRIVINGNOW THE ECONOMY CAN GROW WITHOUT MORE DRIVING25 Ratio of Growth in GDP to Growth in Driving (5-Year Average) 1985 - 2008201510 5 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
  • 23. MORE BICYCLE LANES ARE BEING BUILTMiles of Protected Bikeway Per 100,000 Residents, 9 U.S. Cities, 2000 and 2010 Average Increase of 74% Over 10 Years In These 9 Cities
  • 24. FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS
  • 25. FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS
  • 26. US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000800,000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 - 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 27. US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2011800,000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 - 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 28. HIGH SPEED RAIL INVESTMENT BEGAN IN 2009
  • 29. IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION1: COST• Transportation is a cost of doing business – cheaper is better• Transportation policy emphasizing public transportation has high cost for government but low cost for families.• Transportation policy emphasizing the car has high cost for both government and families• A system build around public transportation has lower total costs• Difference can be as much as 8% of GDP
  • 30. IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION2: CITY PLANNING, LARGE SCALE• Public transportation is very effective in serving a well-planned city• This requires directing new jobs and housing to land served by Metro lines• Un-coordinated urban development is very hard to serve with even the best public transportation system• City must learn to say no to development that cannot be served by public transportation• Mixing uses is key – jobs and housing in separate areas requires more trips and longer trips
  • 31. IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION3: CITY PLANNING: SMALL SCALE• People using public transportation must get to and from stations -- walking and cycling.• For public transportation to work the city must be built for walking and cycling• Super-blocks are the worst kind of design for walking and cycling• Small things add up: parking policy, bike sharing, car sharing, traffic signal priority for buses
  • 32. IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION4: THE POWER OF THE BUS• Beijing (other Chinese cities?) have wide streets• Changan Jie – 14 lanes?• There is room to create bus-only lanes, the key to good Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)• One expressway lane dedicated to buses in the peak hour has similar theoretical capacity as a new metro – (800 buses per hour, 65 people per bus = 52,000 people per hour for BRT; Metro capacity can reach 60,000 per hour)• Cost is MUCH lower, can be implemented much more quickly• Single BRT lines do not meet their potential until they are part of a connected network
  • 33. CONCLUSIONS• Recent US experience shows that the economy can grow even as car use falls• Cities do not need to fear measures to reduce car use if they do it thoughtfully• Solving transportation in mega-cities is not possible without addressing land use and property development

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