The climate system from a polar perspective  Peter Lemke Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhave...
The complex climate system 3 2 1 4 6 5 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer  </li></u...
1 The climate system: Basic characteristics Rapid atmosphere:  Days Sluggish ocean:  Months-500 years Ice sheets:  Millenn...
1  Variance in the antarctic sea ice boundary Variations in sea ice can also be described with a sea ice model, i.e. throu...
The complex climate system 2 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer  </li></ul><ul><li>...
2 Oceanic surface layer under the sea ice The seasons in the Arctic Ocean Summer Winter 1984 20m 50m Salt content of the s...
The complex climate system 3 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer  </li></ul><ul><li>...
3 Sea ice/ocean interaction Polynya experiment Thickness of the sea ice Salt content of the surface layer Temperature of t...
The complex climate system 4 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer  </li></ul><ul><li>...
4 Sea ice drift and deformation from SAR images RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System.  Due to a large swath width ( ~400 ...
4 SIMIP sea ice model optimization 1997
The complex climate system 5 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer  </li></ul><ul><li>...
5 The sea ice ecosystem
5 Working on sea ice
5 Sampling
5 The sea ice ecosystem Brine channels in the sea ice © J. Weissenberger © R. Kiko © M. Kramer © R. Kiko
The complex climate system <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer  </li></ul><ul><li>Se...
6 Climate report (IPCC) - Chpt. 4 2007 Frequently Asked Question 4.1: Is the Amount of Snow and Ice  on the Earth Decreasi...
Aktualisiert von IPCC AR4 (2007) Sept. 2007 Decline in summer minimum (-8 % per decade) 6 Arctic sea ice - extent in summe...
Measuring sea ice thickness Rabenstein, Hendricks,Leinweber, 2007 AWI sea ice group EM bird 6 km
Significant rise in average global temperatures GISS Data 2009 2008
CO 2  emissions (billion metric tons carbon dioxide/year) Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature...
Thank you! <ul><li>Bayer AG </li></ul><ul><li>Klaus Hasselmann </li></ul><ul><li>Our colleagues at </li></ul><ul><li>MPI f...
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Our challenge: To make sustainable use of  a constantly changing planet
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The climate system from a polar perspective

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Adress by polar researcher Professor Lemke at the awarding ceremony of Bayer Climate Award 2010

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  • Änderungen der atmosphärischen Bestandteile (CO2, andere Gase, Staub) – Changes in atmospheric components (CO2, other gases, dust) Änderungen der Landöberfläche (Rodung, Versteppung, Wüstenbildung) – Changes in land surface (clearance, steppization, desertification) Atmosphäre - Atmosphere Bodenfeuchte - Soil moisture Albedo - Albedo Gasaustausch - Gas exchange Biosphäre - Biosphere Land - Land Schwankungen der solaren Einstrahlung - Fluctuations in solar radiation Infrarotabstrahlung - Infrared radiation Reflektion (Albedo) - Reflection (albedo) Wolken - Clouds Wind - Wind Verdunstung - Evaporation Niederschlag - Precipitation Wärme - Heat Meeresströmung - Sea current Salz - Salt Ozean - Ocean Änderungen des ozeanischen Salzgehalts - Changes in ocean salinity Schmelzen - Melting Schneefall - Snowfall Meereis - Sea ice Landeis - Land ice Schelfeis - Ice shelf Heben und Absinken des Kontinents - Continental rise and fall Geothermaler Wärmefluss - Geothermal heat flow Kontinentaldrift - Continental drift
  • Änderungen der atmosphärischen Bestandteile (CO2, andere Gase, Staub) – Changes in atmospheric components (CO2, other gases, dust) Änderungen der Landöberfläche (Rodung, Versteppung, Wüstenbildung) – Changes in land surface (clearance, steppization, desertification) Atmosphäre - Atmosphere Bodenfeuchte - Soil moisture Albedo - Albedo Gasaustausch - Gas exchange Biosphäre - Biosphere Land - Land Schwankungen der solaren Einstrahlung - Fluctuations in solar radiation Infrarotabstrahlung - Infrared radiation Reflektion (Albedo) - Reflection (albedo) Wolken - Clouds Wind - Wind Verdunstung - Evaporation Niederschlag - Precipitation Wärme - Heat Meeresströmung - Sea current Salz - Salt Ozean - Ocean Änderungen des ozeanischen Salzgehalts - Changes in ocean salinity Schmelzen - Melting Schneefall - Snowfall Meereis - Sea ice Landeis - Land ice Schelfeis - Ice shelf Heben und Absinken des Kontinents - Continental rise and fall Geothermaler Wärmefluss - Geothermal heat flow Kontinentaldrift - Continental drift
  • Änderungen der atmosphärischen Bestandteile (CO2, andere Gase, Staub) – Changes in atmospheric components (CO2, other gases, dust) Änderungen der Landöberfläche (Rodung, Versteppung, Wüstenbildung) – Changes in land surface (clearance, steppization, desertification) Atmosphäre - Atmosphere Bodenfeuchte - Soil moisture Albedo - Albedo Gasaustausch - Gas exchange Biosphäre - Biosphere Land - Land Schwankungen der solaren Einstrahlung - Fluctuations in solar radiation Infrarotabstrahlung - Infrared radiation Reflektion (Albedo) - Reflection (albedo) Wolken - Clouds Wind - Wind Verdunstung - Evaporation Niederschlag - Precipitation Wärme - Heat Meeresströmung - Sea current Salz - Salt Ozean - Ocean Änderungen des ozeanischen Salzgehalts - Changes in ocean salinity Schmelzen - Melting Schneefall - Snowfall Meereis - Sea ice Landeis - Land ice Schelfeis - Ice shelf Heben und Absinken des Kontinents - Continental rise and fall Geothermaler Wärmefluss - Geothermal heat flow Kontinentaldrift - Continental drift
  • Änderungen der atmosphärischen Bestandteile (CO2, andere Gase, Staub) – Changes in atmospheric components (CO2, other gases, dust) Änderungen der Landöberfläche (Rodung, Versteppung, Wüstenbildung) – Changes in land surface (clearance, steppization, desertification) Atmosphäre - Atmosphere Bodenfeuchte - Soil moisture Albedo - Albedo Gasaustausch - Gas exchange Biosphäre - Biosphere Land - Land Schwankungen der solaren Einstrahlung - Fluctuations in solar radiation Infrarotabstrahlung - Infrared radiation Reflektion (Albedo) - Reflection (albedo) Wolken - Clouds Wind - Wind Verdunstung - Evaporation Niederschlag - Precipitation Wärme - Heat Meeresströmung - Sea current Salz - Salt Ozean - Ocean Änderungen des ozeanischen Salzgehalts - Changes in ocean salinity Schmelzen - Melting Schneefall - Snowfall Meereis - Sea ice Landeis - Land ice Schelfeis - Ice shelf Heben und Absinken des Kontinents - Continental rise and fall Geothermaler Wärmefluss - Geothermal heat flow Kontinentaldrift - Continental drift
  • Änderungen der atmosphärischen Bestandteile (CO2, andere Gase, Staub) – Changes in atmospheric components (CO2, other gases, dust) Änderungen der Landöberfläche (Rodung, Versteppung, Wüstenbildung) – Changes in land surface (clearance, steppization, desertification) Atmosphäre - Atmosphere Bodenfeuchte - Soil moisture Albedo - Albedo Gasaustausch - Gas exchange Biosphäre - Biosphere Land - Land Schwankungen der solaren Einstrahlung - Fluctuations in solar radiation Infrarotabstrahlung - Infrared radiation Reflektion (Albedo) - Reflection (albedo) Wolken - Clouds Wind - Wind Verdunstung - Evaporation Niederschlag - Precipitation Wärme - Heat Meeresströmung - Sea current Salz - Salt Ozean - Ocean Änderungen des ozeanischen Salzgehalts - Changes in ocean salinity Schmelzen - Melting Schneefall - Snowfall Meereis - Sea ice Landeis - Land ice Schelfeis - Ice shelf Heben und Absinken des Kontinents - Continental rise and fall Geothermaler Wärmefluss - Geothermal heat flow Kontinentaldrift - Continental drift
  • A more detailed view, here for example of sea ice, can be obtained by high resolution sensors such as the radar with synthetic aperture. Called SAR. The price to pay for a high spatial resolution is that the temporal frequency of image acquisition cannot be as large as sometimes necessary. Such images are useful for validating the data products of the global-view sensors we have looked at before. They are aslo useful for studying local phenomena, here for example the ice deformation and formation of leads. The knowledge about the frequency of occurrence of open water leads and thin ice areas is important for estimating the heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere and the salt flux from the ice into the upper ocean layers.
  • Bojentrajektorien = Buoy trajectories Modell = Model Beobachtung = Observation Weicheres Eis = softer ice Eishärte = Ice hardness Härteres Eis = harder ice
  • Änderungen der atmosphärischen Bestandteile (CO2, andere Gase, Staub) – Changes in atmospheric components (CO2, other gases, dust) Änderungen der Landöberfläche (Rodung, Versteppung, Wüstenbildung) – Changes in land surface (clearance, steppization, desertification) Atmosphäre - Atmosphere Bodenfeuchte - Soil moisture Albedo - Albedo Gasaustausch - Gas exchange Biosphäre - Biosphere Land - Land Schwankungen der solaren Einstrahlung - Fluctuations in solar radiation Infrarotabstrahlung - Infrared radiation Reflektion (Albedo) - Reflection (albedo) Wolken - Clouds Wind - Wind Verdunstung - Evaporation Niederschlag - Precipitation Wärme - Heat Meeresströmung - Sea current Salz - Salt Ozean - Ocean Änderungen des ozeanischen Salzgehalts - Changes in ocean salinity Schmelzen - Melting Schneefall - Snowfall Meereis - Sea ice Landeis - Land ice Schelfeis - Ice shelf Heben und Absinken des Kontinents - Continental rise and fall Geothermaler Wärmefluss - Geothermal heat flow Kontinentaldrift - Continental drift
  • Änderungen der atmosphärischen Bestandteile (CO2, andere Gase, Staub) – Changes in atmospheric components (CO2, other gases, dust) Änderungen der Landöberfläche (Rodung, Versteppung, Wüstenbildung) – Changes in land surface (clearance, steppization, desertification) Atmosphäre - Atmosphere Bodenfeuchte - Soil moisture Albedo - Albedo Gasaustausch - Gas exchange Biosphäre - Biosphere Land - Land Schwankungen der solaren Einstrahlung - Fluctuations in solar radiation Infrarotabstrahlung - Infrared radiation Reflektion (Albedo) - Reflection (albedo) Wolken - Clouds Wind - Wind Verdunstung - Evaporation Niederschlag - Precipitation Wärme - Heat Meeresströmung - Sea current Salz - Salt Ozean - Ocean Änderungen des ozeanischen Salzgehalts - Changes in ocean salinity Schmelzen - Melting Schneefall - Snowfall Meereis - Sea ice Landeis - Land ice Schelfeis - Ice shelf Heben und Absinken des Kontinents - Continental rise and fall Geothermaler Wärmefluss - Geothermal heat flow Kontinentaldrift - Continental drift
  • Globale Anomalien der Lufttemperatur von 1880 bis 2009 (im Vergleich zu 1951-1980) - Global anomalies in air temperature from 1880 to 2009 (compared to 1951-1980) Temperaturanomalien - Temperature anomalies Jahr - Year
  • Stippled areas &gt;1 sd. More agreement than in TAR, but less agreement than for temperature.
  • The climate system from a polar perspective

    1. 1. The climate system from a polar perspective Peter Lemke Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Institute for Environmental Physics University of Bremen
    2. 2. The complex climate system 3 2 1 4 6 5 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice/ocean interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice ecosystem </li></ul><ul><li>Cryosphere (IPCC) </li></ul>
    3. 3. 1 The climate system: Basic characteristics Rapid atmosphere: Days Sluggish ocean: Months-500 years Ice sheets: Millennia Energy balance climate model (Lemke, 1977) Hasselmann, 1976
    4. 4. 1 Variance in the antarctic sea ice boundary Variations in sea ice can also be described with a sea ice model, i.e. through the Brownian motion approach. 1980 Frequency Period Variance in sea ice boundary
    5. 5. The complex climate system 2 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice/ocean interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice ecosystem </li></ul><ul><li>Cryosphere (IPCC) </li></ul>
    6. 6. 2 Oceanic surface layer under the sea ice The seasons in the Arctic Ocean Summer Winter 1984 20m 50m Salt content of the surface layer Depth of the surface layer Summer Winter
    7. 7. The complex climate system 3 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice/ocean interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice ecosystem </li></ul><ul><li>Cryosphere (IPCC) </li></ul>
    8. 8. 3 Sea ice/ocean interaction Polynya experiment Thickness of the sea ice Salt content of the surface layer Temperature of the surface layer Depth of the surface layer 1987
    9. 9. The complex climate system 4 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice/ocean interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice ecosystem </li></ul><ul><li>Cryosphere (IPCC) </li></ul>
    10. 10. 4 Sea ice drift and deformation from SAR images RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System. Due to a large swath width ( ~400 km) in ScanSAR mode, an image is obtained at least every 7 th day (by courtesy of Ron Kwok).
    11. 11. 4 SIMIP sea ice model optimization 1997
    12. 12. The complex climate system 5 <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice/ocean interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice ecosystem </li></ul><ul><li>Cryosphere (IPCC) </li></ul>
    13. 13. 5 The sea ice ecosystem
    14. 14. 5 Working on sea ice
    15. 15. 5 Sampling
    16. 16. 5 The sea ice ecosystem Brine channels in the sea ice © J. Weissenberger © R. Kiko © M. Kramer © R. Kiko
    17. 17. The complex climate system <ul><li>Stochastic climate models </li></ul><ul><li>Oceanic surface layer </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice/ocean interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Sea ice ecosystem </li></ul><ul><li>Cryosphere (IPCC) </li></ul>6
    18. 18. 6 Climate report (IPCC) - Chpt. 4 2007 Frequently Asked Question 4.1: Is the Amount of Snow and Ice on the Earth Decreasing? Yes. <ul><li>Snowfields in the northern hemisphere shrinking </li></ul><ul><li>Glacial retreat worldwide </li></ul><ul><li>Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets shrinking </li></ul><ul><li>Permafrost thawing in many areas </li></ul><ul><li>Significant reduction in Arctic sea ice </li></ul>
    19. 19. Aktualisiert von IPCC AR4 (2007) Sept. 2007 Decline in summer minimum (-8 % per decade) 6 Arctic sea ice - extent in summer 2070 Arctic ice-free in summer
    20. 20. Measuring sea ice thickness Rabenstein, Hendricks,Leinweber, 2007 AWI sea ice group EM bird 6 km
    21. 21. Significant rise in average global temperatures GISS Data 2009 2008
    22. 22. CO 2 emissions (billion metric tons carbon dioxide/year) Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009 ... are far higher than the IPCC's worst-case scenarios 2100: ΔT ~ 4°C
    23. 23. Thank you! <ul><li>Bayer AG </li></ul><ul><li>Klaus Hasselmann </li></ul><ul><li>Our colleagues at </li></ul><ul><li>MPI for Meteorology, </li></ul><ul><li>Hamburg </li></ul><ul><li>Princeton University </li></ul><ul><li>Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel </li></ul><ul><li>Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven </li></ul><ul><li>IUP, University of Bremen </li></ul><ul><li>Hildegard, Saskia, Mark, Stefan </li></ul>
    24. 24. Nature's sculptures
    25. 25. Our challenge: To make sustainable use of a constantly changing planet
    26. 26. Thank you for your attention.
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