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Slides for Chapter 3 of Baldwin's Book

Slides for Chapter 3 of Baldwin's Book

Published in: Business, Education, Technology

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  • The correct answer is “C” – confirmation bias. See next slide.
  • The correct answer is “C” – satisficing. See slide 3-18.
  • There is no one best answer. Decision factors depend on the situation.
  • Transcript

    • 1. 2-1
    • 2. Chapter 3 Problem Solving and Ethics Barbara M Fowler bfowler@chiefoutsiders.comMcGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
    • 3. The Challenge of Problem SolvingProblem Solving Myths – Taking action is better than standing by – Trust your gut – I know when I’m making a poor decision – Dividing an elephant in half makes two small elephants – Ethics is not my problem – Ethical abuses are due to unethical people 3-3
    • 4. Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions• Intuition – represents a collection of what we’ve learned about the world, without knowing that we actually learned it• Common for intuition to be influenced by unconscious biases 3-4
    • 5. Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions• Inference – conclusion drawn about what we don’t know based on things we do know 3-5
    • 6. Ladder of Inference 3-6
    • 7. Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions• Fundamental attribution error – people tend to over attribute behavior to internal rather than external causes• Self-serving bias – people attribute personal success to internal causes and personal failures to external causes 3-7
    • 8. Ways People Exercise Poor Judgment Without Knowing It• Availability• Representativeness• Anchoring and Adjustment• Confirmation• Overconfidence• Escalation of Commitment 3-8
    • 9. Ways People Exercise Poor Judgment Without Knowing It• Availability bias – things that are more readily available to us are likely to be interpreted as more frequent or important 3-9
    • 10. Ways People Exercise Poor Judgment Without Knowing It• Hasty generalization fallacy – people often draw inappropriate general conclusions from specific cases because they do not realize that their specific example is not necessarily so in most cases 3-10
    • 11. Question?What is the tendency is to collect evidence that supports rather than negates our intuition before deciding?A. AnchoringB. AdjustingC. Confirmation biasD. Overconfidence bias 3-11
    • 12. Ways People Exercise Poor Judgment Without Knowing It• Anchoring and adjusting – Different starting points lead to different end results• Confirmation bias – tendency is to collect evidence that supports rather than negates our intuition before deciding 3-12
    • 13. Ways People Exercise Poor Judgment Without Knowing It• Overconfidence bias – we posses some unique trait or ability that allows us to defy odds, whereas others simply don’t have such a trait• Escalation of commitment – people are likely to continue to invest additional resources in failing courses of action even though no foreseeable payoff is evident 3-13
    • 14. Overcoming Judgment Biases1. Confidence estimates2. Trial and error3. Healthy skepticism 3-14
    • 15. Best Defenses for Decision Biases1. Do not jump to conclusions2. Do not assume a relationship is a cause3. Do not base your conclusion only on your own experience4. Do not just look to support your case5. Do not fall prey to overconfidence 3-15
    • 16. Question?What type of decision is made when the most acceptable solution to a problem is chosen rather than the optimal one? A. Bounded rationality B. Satisfying C. Satisficing D. PADIL 3-16
    • 17. Solving Problems Ethically and Effectively• Bounded rationality – thinking and reasoning ability is constrained by the limitations of our minds – It is impossible to consider simultaneously all information relevant to any decision or problem 3-17
    • 18. Solving Problems Ethically and Effectively• Satisficing – determining the most acceptable solution to a problem rather than an optimal one 3-18
    • 19. A Problem Solving FrameworkPADIL 3-19
    • 20. A Problem Solving Framework• Define and Structure the Problem – Be sure you are working on the right problem 3-20
    • 21. A Problem Solving FrameworkHow people solve the wrong problem precisely 1. Picking the wrong stakeholders 2. Framing the problem too narrowly 3. Failure to think systematically 4. Failure to find the facts 3-21
    • 22. A Problem Solving Framework• Assess key stakeholders – Stakeholders – anyone who has a “stake” in the problem or solution 3-22
    • 23. Vroom’s Problem Solving Approaches• Decide• Consult individually• Consult group• Facilitate group• Delegate group 3-23
    • 24. Vroom Decision Factors• Decision significance• Importance of commitment• Leader’s expertise• Likelihood of commitment• Employee support• Employee expertise• Employee competence 3-24
    • 25. Discussion Question?Which is the most important decision factor?A. Decision significanceB. Importance of commitmentC. Leader’s expertiseD. Likelihood of commitment 3-25
    • 26. A Problem Solving FrameworkFraming the problem correctly – Black or white fallacy • assumes that our choices are clear and limited to two when in reality there may be many other choices 3-26
    • 27. A Problem Solving FrameworkThinking systematically – System • perceived whole whose elements “hang together” because they continually affect each other over time and operate toward a common purpose 3-27
    • 28. Systems Approach• Events• Patterns of behavior or trends• Systemic structure 3-28
    • 29. Systems Approach• Mental models – prevailing assumptions, beliefs and values that sustain the current systems• Inquiry skills – understanding how to ask the right questions about a problem 3-29
    • 30. Tools for Understanding the Problem Scope• Affinity diagram• Is-Is not• Graphic displays• Generate creative alternatives 3-30
    • 31. Tools for Understanding the Problem ScopeAffinity Diagram 1. Write the problem statement 2. Allow each person to write as many potential causes as possible 3. Look for similarities in the ideas 3-31
    • 32. Tools for Understanding the Problem ScopeGraphic Displays – Histogram bar chart • allows for the display of data categories tracked against some important standard – Behavior over time chart (BOT) 3-32
    • 33. Generate Creative Alternatives• Brainstorming• Brainwriting• Diversify participants• Use metaphors and analogies• Performance standards and feedback• Assume a “Perfect World”• Benchmarking 3-33
    • 34. Generate Creative Alternatives• Benchmarking – organizational representatives trying to solve a problem go to visit other organizations that are thought to have solved the problem successfully 3-34
    • 35. Characteristics of Good Alternatives• Postponed evaluation• Stakeholder involvement• Organizational focus• Time implications• Effective 3-35
    • 36. Paralyzed by Choices• Equifinality – condition in which different initial conditions lead to similar effects• Devil’s advocate – method for increasing debate and exploring a problem from all the angles 3-36
    • 37. Implementing the Solution• Implementing a solution involves others• Does not have to happen all at once• Often the scope of the problem is underestimated or the problem is defined incorrectly 3-37
    • 38. Ethics: Making the Tough Choices• Ethical commitment – level of desire to do what is right even in the face of potential personal implications• Ethical consciousness – developing an ability to understand the ramifications of choosing less ethical courses of action• Ethical competency – involves a thoughtful consideration of ethics in each stage of the problem solving process 3-38
    • 39. Right vs. Right Scenarios• Truth vs. loyalty• Individual vs. community• Short-term vs. long-term• Justice vs. mercy 3-39
    • 40. Fairness in Decision-Making• Economics• Equality• Justice 3-40
    • 41. Justice• Distributive justice – perceived when people view fairness of a particular outcome• Procedural justice – perceived when the process used to make decisions is fair• Interactional justice – perceived when people treat others respectfully and explain decisions adequately 3-41
    • 42. Intensity of Ethical Issues• Magnitude of consequences• Social consensus of good/evil• Probability of harm/benefit• Temporal immediacy• Proximity• Concentration of effect 3-42
    • 43. Making the Tough ChoicesMoral imagination is the ability to:1. Step out of one’s situation and see the possible ethical problems present2. Imagine other possibilities and alternatives3. Evaluate from an ethical new possibility one has envisioned 3-43
    • 44. Rationalizations and Ethical Traps• If it’s legal, it’s ethical• I was only trying to help• Everyone else does it• It’s owed to me• As long as I don’t gain 3-44
    • 45. Quick Tests of Your Actions1. Is my action legal?2. Am I behaving fairly?3. Is my decision in line with my own values?4. Will others be negatively impacted? 3-45
    • 46. Test Your Ethics• Use the self assessment at to test your business ethics 3-46