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Prof Cunningham Prof Cunningham Presentation Transcript

  • Building the Knowledge Economy Patrick Cunningham Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government Ballyhoura Development Ltd, Nov12, 2010 1
  • Lisbon Agenda (2000) “to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion.” 3% of GDP on R&D 1/3 public; 2/3 business 2
  • SSTI vision (2006) “Ireland by 2013 will be internationally renowned for the excellence of its research, and will be to the forefront in generating and using new knowledge for economic and social progress, within an innovation driven culture.” 3
  • 2006 2007 1776 4 4
  • The Wealth of Nations: capital per person Rich: $439k Poor: $7k Source: Where is the Wealth of Nations? 5 World Bank , 2006.
  • Ireland’s Wealth Natural 3% Produced 14% Human & Social 83% Source: Where is the Wealth of Nations? World Bank , 2006. 6
  • % of 25-34 Age Group with Tertiary Education 45 40 Ireland 35 30 OECD 25 % 20 15 10 5 0 1976 55-64 1986 45-54 1996 35-44 2006 25-34 Age Group Source: Education at a Glance, OECD, 2008. 7
  • The Tiger Years Modern Manufacturing €60Bn Roots: Sales €40Bn Internationally-traded EU / Euro Services Tax Education Traditional €20Bn Manufacturing 1990 1995 2000 2007 Source: Forfás, 2008 8
  • Depth of Global Recession 2% 0% Global US EU Ireland -2% Economy Decline in -4% GDP(GNP) for 2009 -6% -8% -10% -12% Sources: International Monetary Fund; Central Bank of Ireland 9
  • Business Public People Money Ideas People Money Ideas Research & Collaboration Development Research Publications, Citations Patents Patents Capital Investment, Start-ups New/Improved Processes, New/Improved Processes, Products, Services. Products, Services. Benefits to Society: Employment, Health, Quality of Life 10
  • GDP per capita Source: International Monetary Fund, 2009
  • GDP per capita and Human Development Index Correlation = 0.90 Sources: International Monetary Fund, 2009, Human Development Report, UN Development Programme
  • GDP per capita and Satisfaction with Life Index Correlation = 0.85 Sources: International Monetary Fund, 2009; White, A. (2007). A Global Projection of Subjective Well-being: A Challenge To Positive Psychology? Psychtalk 56, 17-20
  • GDP per capita and Happy Planet Index Correlation = 0.35 Sources: International Monetary Fund, 2009, Happy Planet Index 2.0 from the New Economic Foundation (nef)
  • GDP per capita and GINI Coefficient Correlation = 0.22 Sources: International Monetary Fund, 2009, Human Development Report, UN Development Programme
  • Investment in R&D (GERD) 3,000 1.66% GNP 2,500 current €m 2,000 Private 1,500 1.41% GNP 1,000 Public 500 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: derived from Forfás data 16
  • Public Investment in R&D* 1,400 €m constant prices (2007) 1,200 ? 1,000 -15%** -4%** 800 600 400 NDP 2000-2006 NDP 2007-2013 Total = €4B Total = €8.2B 200 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 * GBAORD - Government budget appropriations or outlays on R&D. ** Indicative only: SSTI relative to 2008, 2009 (nominal), respectively. Source: Forfás, DETE, 2009 17
  • Exchequer Expenditure 2009 (~€60 bn) Investment Enterprise for the future Agriculture 2% 2% Other 9% Capital 12% Justice 4% Seedcorn Education 13% SSTI 1% Health 24% Social Welfare 33% Spending for today 18 Sources: Revised Estimates for Public Services, DF, April 2009; SSTI Finances, DETE, May 2009
  • Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D as % GDP Ireland ranks 18th out of OECD 28 19 Source: Annual Competitiveness Report Vol. 1, NCC, August 2009
  • European Innovation Scoreboard - Inputs Firm Investments  Business R&D Expenditure Human Resources  IT Expenditure  S&E, SSH Primary Graduates  Non-R&D Innovation Expenditure  S&E, SSH PhD Graduates  Pop. with Tertiary Education  Life-long Learning  Youth Education Attainment Linkages & Entrepreneurship  SMEs Innovating In-house  Innovative SMEs Collaborating  Firm Renewal  Public-Private Co-publications Finance & Support  Public R&D Expenditure  Venture Capital Throughputs  Private Credit  EPO Patents  Firms with Broadband  Community Trademarks  Community Designs  Technology Balance of Payments 20
  • European Innovation Scoreboard - Outputs Economic Effects Innovators  High-tech Manuf. Employment  SME Product / Process Innovation  Knowledge-Intensive Serv. Employment  SME Marketing / Organ. Innovation  High-tech Manuf. Exports  Resource Efficiency Innovators  Knowledge-Intensive Serv. Exports  New-to-market Sales  New-to-firm Sales 21
  • Summary Innovation Index 2008 (29 Indicators) EU-15 Followers Leaders Source: European Innovation Scoreboard 2008, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht , Jan 2009 22
  • EIS (“2008 methodology”) Time Series 0.7 Switzerland 0.65 Sweden 0.6 Denmark 0.55 Finland 0.5 Ireland 0.45 EU-27 0.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: European Innovation Scoreboard 2008, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht , Jan 2009 23
  • Summary  Metrics now show Ireland close to EU-15 average i.e. among the “followers”.  Target peer group includes FI, SE, DK, CH & AT. 24
  • Challenges  Monitoring Delivery against Correct Indicators  Effective Linkages to Dual Business Sectors  Close attention to needs of foreign-owned firms  Special efforts to lift indigenous firms  Keeping on Track to Target  To match leading countries  Achievable in ~10 years 25
  • Dublin: European City of Science 2012