ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT
• “We need to realize that economic prosperity for a
nation is not about Economics alone. A natio...
ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT
• An economy or economic system refers in which the various
economic activities relating to produ...
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH &
DEVELOPMENT
• Economic growth- refers to increases over time in a country’s real outp...
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH &
DEVELOPMENT
• Economic growth- merely refers to raise in output.
• While Eco.developm...
CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN ECONOMY
An economy of a country consists of three sectors:
1. Primary sector includes agricultur...
CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN ECONOMY
Important features of Indian Economy are:
Rapid growth of population: Over the 50 years,...
CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN
ECONOMY
• Poor quality of Indian working population: compared to advanced
countries the poor qua...
CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN
ECONOMY
• Existence of Dualistic or Dual sector: In India both ancient and
modern sectors exist ...
MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT
• India is an underdeveloped though a developing economy.
Bulk of the population lives in cond...
MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT
The following are the major development issues in India.
1. Low percapita income
2. High propo...
MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT
The following are the major development issues in India.
Low percapita Income: The annual inco...
MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT
The following are the major development issues in India.
High proportion of people below the p...
MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT
Imbalance between population size, resources and capital.
Rate of population Growth was over 2...
DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
• Growth of population :Economic development and population are
inter-connected. Hist...
MAJOR ISSUES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Predominance of Agriculture: About 64.9% of the working
population depend on agricult...
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
MAJOR ISSUES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Inequalities of Income and wealth:
Various studies and sur...
DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Economic development implies the process of securing levels of
productivity in all se...
DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
• Capital output Ratio: refers to the number of units of capital that
are required in...
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
INDIAAS A DEVELOPING ECONOMY
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
INDIA AS A DEVELOPING ECONOMY
Strategy and planning in India – In 1951 economic
planning was ad...
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
INDIA AS A DEVELOPING ECONOMY
SECTOR WISE ANALYSIS
PRIMARY SECTOR
SECONDARY SECTOR
TERTIARY SEC...
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
CONTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURE TO INDIAN ECONOMY
Agricultural sector - reached the stage of develo...
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Contribution of secondary sector
• The share of industrial sectors to NI has increased steadily...
CONTRIBUTIONS OF SECONDARY SECTOR
sectors 1970-71 1980-81 2003-04
Primary 45.8% 39.6% 24.0%
Secondary 22.3% 24.4% 25%
tert...
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Contributions of secondary sector
Year 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Industry 7.0 8.4 8.3 10....
OBJECTIVE OF 11TH PLAN
• The 11th Plan provides an opportunity to restructure policies to
achieve a new vision based on fa...
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
CURRENT ECONOMIC SCENARIO
It was announced recently that India would
be achieving a GDP growth ...
INFLATION
• Inflation refers to a situation when there is a general rise in prices
and a corresponding fall in value of mo...
TYPES OF INFLATION
• Creeping inflation – Price Rise by 2% -PA – not controlled in time –prove
disastrous –economic & poli...
CAUSES OF INFLATION
The basic cause of inflation normally occurs, when aggregate
demand for output tends to be excessive i...
CAUSES OF INFLATION
• 1. Changes in money supply:
• (a) Deficit financing
• (b) Expansion of credit
• (c ) Increase in Gov...
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
CAUSES OF INFLATION
• 3. Changes in Business and Consumer Expenditure :
consumer spends more on...
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
CAUSES OF INFLATION
Inflation may occur due to the following different causes:
Increase in the ...
EFFECTS OF INFLATION
• Effect on Production & Employment: motivates Co’s to expand
its production normally leads to genera...
CONTROL ON INFLATION
• 1. DIRECT MEASURES – control on prices and rationing
• of scarce goods. Ceiling on certain goods an...
CONTROL ON INFLATION
3. MONETARY MEASURES: RBI – Open market operations, & Bank rate policy.
.
4. WAGE CONTROL : money wag...
PRICE INDICES
The numerical value that summarizes price level is called price
indices.
The purpose Of PI – helps in explai...
PRICE INDICES
1. Wholesale price Index (WPI): It is an indication of price
movements in all wholesale markets other than t...
TYPES OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
1. Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW)
2. Consumer Price Index for Urban No...
BUSINESS CYCLE
• A business cycle can be defined as wavelike
fluctuations of business activity characterized by
recurring ...
FEATURES OF BUSINESS CYCLE
1. Recurring Fluctuations
2. Period of business cycle is longer than a year.
3. Presence of the...
PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES
• Prosperity – upswing, expansion phase.
• Recession – a turn from prosperity to depression
• De...
PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES
• Prosperity phase
• Income level tends to raise
• Unemployment rate declines
• Industrial growt...
PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES
• RECESSIONARY PHASE
• The prosperity comes to end when the forces favoring expansion
become pro...
PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES
• DEPRESSIONARY PHASE
• Characteristic features of a depression are the reverse of
prosperity
• ...
PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES
RECOVERY /STAGFLATION PHASE
• However depression – can’t be permanent feature of an
economy.
• T...
INDICATORS OF BUSINESS CYCLE
• Gross Domestic Product
• Fixed Investment
• Net exports
• Unemployment rate
• Real earnings...
TYPES OR TIMINGS OF INDICATORS
There are three timings in which these indicators lead to changes
in the business cycle nam...
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Economic environment PPT ON INDIAN BUSINESS ENVIROANMENT MBA

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Economic environment PPT ON INDIAN BUSINESS ENVIROANMENT MBA

  1. 1. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  2. 2. ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT • “We need to realize that economic prosperity for a nation is not about Economics alone. A nation cannot be run like a department store with the only motive of profit maximization. Economic prosperity encompasses social development which is crucial to the soul of nation” »Arindam Chaudhari Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  3. 3. ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT • An economy or economic system refers in which the various economic activities relating to production, distribution, exchange and consumption of goods and services are organized in a country and the way in which the people of a country earn their living. • It comprises the factories, firms, mines, shops, banks, schools, offices, transport systems, theatres, hospitals, public administration, defense etc., which help in the production and distribution of goods and services in the country. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  4. 4. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT • Economic growth- refers to increases over time in a country’s real output of goods and service or more appropriately product per capita. • The term Eco.development refers to the progressive changes in the socio- economic structure of a country. • It involves a steady decline in agriculture share in GDP & a corresponding increase in the share of industries, banking, trade, construction, services. • This change in economic structure is invariably accompanies by a shift in the occupational structure of the labor force. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  5. 5. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT • Economic growth- merely refers to raise in output. • While Eco.development implies changes in technological & institutional organization of production as well as in distributive pattern in income Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  6. 6. CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN ECONOMY An economy of a country consists of three sectors: 1. Primary sector includes agriculture, mining, fishing etc., and it is generally called agricultural sector. 2. The Secondary sector includes all kinds of industries both large as well as small and it is generally called industrial sector. 3. Tertiary sector includes services like transport, banking, insurance Public administration, defense etc., and it is called as service sector. Indian economy is presently characterized as an under developed & developing economy. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  7. 7. CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN ECONOMY Important features of Indian Economy are: Rapid growth of population: Over the 50 years, rate of population Growth was over 2.0 percent per annum This demographic situation is major constraint on the growth of business. Predominance of Agriculture: About 64.9% of the working population depend on agriculture for their livelihood. It is still primitive and is gamble in the monsoons and it is still underdeveloped. Though we have adopted planning for about five Decades we have not achieved much in agriculture. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  8. 8. CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN ECONOMY • Poor quality of Indian working population: compared to advanced countries the poor quality of Indian labor is due to the reason that the laborers of India are poor and under fed. • Low level of technology: technical backwardness in all the fields of production, techniques of production are mostly old and obsolete. • Also lack of quality education and technical training to absorb modern technology. • Inadequate Transport and Communication systems: Even today many of our rural areas are not provided with well developed roadways and power facilities. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  9. 9. CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN ECONOMY • Existence of Dualistic or Dual sector: In India both ancient and modern sectors exist side by side. We find ancient wooden ploughs as well as the modern tractors. Similarly in industries old and obsolete machines and modern sophisticated machines. • Under utilization of resources: though India is rich in natural resources like land, minerals, forests, wild life, power, fisheries etc., but they are not properly utilized due to shortage of capital, low level of technology and technological skill. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  10. 10. MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT • India is an underdeveloped though a developing economy. Bulk of the population lives in conditions of misery. • Poverty is not only acute but also chronic. At the same time , there exist un utilised natural resources. The co-existence of the vicious circle of poverty with the vicious circle of affluence perpetuates misery and foils all attempts at removal of poverty. • It is in this context that an understanding of the major issues of development should be made. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  11. 11. MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT The following are the major development issues in India. 1. Low percapita income 2. High proportion of people below the poverty line. 3. Low level of productive efficiency due to inadequate nutrition and malnutrition. 4. Imbalance between population size, resources and capital. 5. Problem of unemployment 6. Instability of output of agriculture and related sectors. 7. Imbalance in distribution and growing inequalities. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  12. 12. MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT The following are the major development issues in India. Low percapita Income: The annual income per head of the population in India is very low: after independence government wanted to give a big push to the standstill economy. With the efforts of the government some development has indeed taken place during the five decades of planning. But India still remains one of the most underdeveloped countries in terms of per capita income. Low standard of living: Due to low percapita income the standard of living is very low. 39% of the total population of the country live below poverty line and there is mass chronic poverty. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  13. 13. MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT The following are the major development issues in India. High proportion of people below the poverty line & Low level of productive efficiency due to inadequate nutrition and malnutrition. : Defining poverty line on the basis of norms of nutritional requirements, i.e. 2,400 calories PPP- rural areas 2,100 calories PPP- urban areas. The percentage of population below the poverty line is quite high. Alarming situation from the point of view of the business even after 60 years of independence . More than 40 percent of India’s population neither has any capacity to contribute to capital accumulation nor to create any demand for industrial goods.. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  14. 14. MAJOR ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT Imbalance between population size, resources and capital. Rate of population Growth was over 2.1 percent per annum. “the requirement of feeding additional numbers compels the use of resources in low return agriculture rather than higher return manufacturing This demographic situation is major constraint in accumulating capital on the growth of business. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  15. 15. DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT • Growth of population :Economic development and population are inter-connected. History has shown that birth rate only falls significantly when the standard of living rises significantly for the majority of people. • Building Human capital: by focusing on education and health thereby increasing the productivity of the economy. • Harmonization of the objective of expanding production with that of securing full employment is a logical necessity in India. • Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  16. 16. MAJOR ISSUES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Predominance of Agriculture: About 64.9% of the working population depend on agriculture for their livelihood. It is still Primitive and is gamble in the monsoons still underdeveloped. Though we have adopted planning for about five decades we have not achieved much in agriculture. Problem of unemployment: Widespread unemployment is probably the most striking symptom of inadequate development in India. Employment situation did not improve in the period of liberalization. Economic growth was jobless. A large no. of workers lost jobs as a consequence of downsizing of industrial unit. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  17. 17. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com MAJOR ISSUES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Inequalities of Income and wealth: Various studies and surveys have clearly indicated that even the small gains of development over the years have not been equitably distributed.
  18. 18. DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Economic development implies the process of securing levels of productivity in all sectors of economy. • Capital Formation • Capital output Ration • Curb the Growth of population • Create Human capital Capital formation – to the full extent by domestic savings is of crucial importance in the process of economic Development. It is quite necessary to step up the rate of capital formation that the community accumulates a large stock of machine tools and equipment which can be geared into production. Technological framework implicit high rate of capital formation. • Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  19. 19. DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT • Capital output Ratio: refers to the number of units of capital that are required in order to produce one unit of output . • In certain sectors of the economy out put can be increased with comparatively small additions to capital. • For instance, in Japan between 1885 and 1915 labour productivity in agriculture was doubled by a comparatively small quantum of investment in the form of better seeds, improvement in water supply, control of crop diseases and the use of fertilizers. • Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  20. 20. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com INDIAAS A DEVELOPING ECONOMY
  21. 21. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com INDIA AS A DEVELOPING ECONOMY Strategy and planning in India – In 1951 economic planning was adopted as an instrument of development. Over the past 6 decades the country has completed 10th five year plans. National income has increased & also considerable improvement has taken in the various sectors. An Approach to the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-2012) – towards developing economy
  22. 22. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com INDIA AS A DEVELOPING ECONOMY SECTOR WISE ANALYSIS PRIMARY SECTOR SECONDARY SECTOR TERTIARY SECTOR India started marching towards economic progress – India as a developing country . During past 60 years, the country has made Progress in Agriculture, Industry, science & technology, health & education and various other fields. 1850-1950 – Indian economy was stagnant for 100 years, but now the economy is progressing also with the recent LPG of Indian economy.
  23. 23. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com CONTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURE TO INDIAN ECONOMY Agricultural sector - reached the stage of development and maturity. Share of agriculture in NI – taken as an indicator of economic development. Continuous increase in agricultural production and productivity in India.. Total production of food grains has increased 1950 -51 - 50.8 million tones During seventh plan - 187 million tones Eighth plan 209.8 million tonnes Considerable improvement in non food grains like oilseeds – reached a recorded level of 24.7 million tonnes . During mid 1960s – Green revolution due to the adoption of New agricultural strategy.
  24. 24. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Contribution of secondary sector • The share of industrial sectors to NI has increased steadily. • Several Industrial policy resolutions were introduced to develop industrial sector of our country. • New Industrial policy of 1991 has enabled the industrial sector to develop to a greater extent • 1951-1965 foundation for Industrial development in the country • Basic industries like iron and steel, heavy engineering and machine building industry registered significant increase in their growth.
  25. 25. CONTRIBUTIONS OF SECONDARY SECTOR sectors 1970-71 1980-81 2003-04 Primary 45.8% 39.6% 24.0% Secondary 22.3% 24.4% 25% tertiary 31.9% 40% 51.4% Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  26. 26. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Contributions of secondary sector Year 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Industry 7.0 8.4 8.3 10.6 Mfrg. 7.4 9.2 9.1 11.5 Services 8.5 9.6 9.8 11.2 •Annual growth rate of Industrial Production TOTAL GDPAT FACTOR COST
  27. 27. OBJECTIVE OF 11TH PLAN • The 11th Plan provides an opportunity to restructure policies to achieve a new vision based on faster, more broad-based and inclusive growth. • It is designed to reduce poverty and focus on bridging the various divides that continue to fragment our society. • The 11th Plan must aim at putting the economy on a sustainable growth with a growth rate of approximately 10per cent by the end of the Plan period. • It will create productive employment at a faster pace than before, and target robust agriculture growth at 4% • per year. It must seek to reduce disparities across Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  28. 28. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  29. 29. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com CURRENT ECONOMIC SCENARIO It was announced recently that India would be achieving a GDP growth of 9.2% against project figure of 8.5%,all members of ruling party at Delhi complemented each other. this was possible due to a very good performance of manufacturing, IT, pharmaceutical and service sector. 10% planned growth in the next 5 years of 11th five year plan.
  30. 30. INFLATION • Inflation refers to a situation when there is a general rise in prices and a corresponding fall in value of money. • Inflation occurs when the volume of money in circulation increases faster than the volume of goods and services. • Prof. Coulbourn defines inflation as ………too much of money chasing too few goods. • Modern definition by Crowther… • “Inflation is a state in which the value of money is falling, i.e prices are rising. Inflation is usually associated with rising activity and employment”. • Inflation - excess purchasing power in the hands of the people. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  31. 31. TYPES OF INFLATION • Creeping inflation – Price Rise by 2% -PA – not controlled in time –prove disastrous –economic & political stability of the economy • Walking inflation – mild & tolerable > 10% PA –moderate –stable inflation- people expectations remain more or less stable. • Running inflation – rises rapidly < 10% ranges 10-20%-exceeds “Galloping inflation. Causes economic distortions and disturbances in the economy. • Hyper inflation: 1000% PA . Low purchasing power, real wages fall and inequalities increases – serious distortions – overall economic condition. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  32. 32. CAUSES OF INFLATION The basic cause of inflation normally occurs, when aggregate demand for output tends to be excessive in relative to the supply of output. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com CAUSES OF INFLATIONS 1.CHANGES IN MONEY SUPPLY 2. Change in disposable income 3. Changes in business & consumer expenditure 4. Changes in foreign demand
  33. 33. CAUSES OF INFLATION • 1. Changes in money supply: • (a) Deficit financing • (b) Expansion of credit • (c ) Increase in Govt Expenditure on large development • project. • 2. Disposable income: due to fall in the level of taxation, • increase in national income, a fall in the savings ratio, rise in • the income corresponding rise in savings. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  34. 34. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com CAUSES OF INFLATION • 3. Changes in Business and Consumer Expenditure : consumer spends more on goods & services the demand also increase business activity. – Higher purchase & installment schemes. 4. Foreign demand: inflation may also be caused due to changes in supply of goods and services, when it does not keep pace with the increased demand for goods and service
  35. 35. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com CAUSES OF INFLATION Inflation may occur due to the following different causes: Increase in the money circulation Increase in the disposable income Increase in community's aggregarate spending on consumption & investment or in goods. Excessive speculation and the tendency to hoarding & profiteering Increase in population as the widening gap between demand & supply. Drought, famine, earthquake , storm, volcano eruption and other natural calaminities adversely affecting agricultural production and output of other industries. Prolonged industrial unrest industry or industries, nationwide truck strike that would cause stagnation of goods that would not ensure the match in demand and supply)
  36. 36. EFFECTS OF INFLATION • Effect on Production & Employment: motivates Co’s to expand its production normally leads to generation of Employment opportunities. • Effect on Distribution of national income • Effect on producers • Effect on wage and salary earners • Effect on fixed income groups • Effect on debtors (gain)and creditors suffer badly) • Effect on farmers-benefit due to increase in prices of crops Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  37. 37. CONTROL ON INFLATION • 1. DIRECT MEASURES – control on prices and rationing • of scarce goods. Ceiling on certain goods and should • not allow to it to rise further. • 2. FISCAL MEASURES: deployed to check inflationary • pressures. An increase in Govt’s revenue and decrease in its expenditure can successfully check inflationary • pressures. in the economy Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  38. 38. CONTROL ON INFLATION 3. MONETARY MEASURES: RBI – Open market operations, & Bank rate policy. . 4. WAGE CONTROL : money wage rate rises faster than the productivity of labor. However wage controls difficult to implement. 5. PRICE CONTROL: fixation of maximum prices at which commodities are to be sold. 6. OTHER MEASURES: diverting funds only towards production of necessary commodities, instead of luxury items. Exports can be increased and imports restrictions can be relaxed. – Govt. – try to restrict the growth rate of population – increase production levels in the economy Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  39. 39. PRICE INDICES The numerical value that summarizes price level is called price indices. The purpose Of PI – helps in explaining the purchasing power or inflation/Deflation from one period to another. Types of Price Indices: 1. Wholesale price Index (WPI) 2. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  40. 40. PRICE INDICES 1. Wholesale price Index (WPI): It is an indication of price movements in all wholesale markets other than the retail market. It is worked out for a whole country or for a very large area. Here the prices are collected from the wholesale dealers. 2. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-PI with special reference to a class or category for whom it is meant. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  41. 41. TYPES OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 1. Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) 2. Consumer Price Index for Urban Non-manual Employees (CPI- UNME) 3. Consumer Price Index for agricultural laborers (CPI-AL) Relationship between Price Indices & Inflation Inflation is estimated through Price Indices. Earlier it was estimated in terms of wholesale price. However from the point of view of consumers, retail prices are far more relevant and thus today inflation is measures in terms of CPI. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  42. 42. BUSINESS CYCLE • A business cycle can be defined as wavelike fluctuations of business activity characterized by recurring phases of expansion and contraction in periods varying from three to four years. • Fluctuation rather than stability is the rule in every business record. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  43. 43. FEATURES OF BUSINESS CYCLE 1. Recurring Fluctuations 2. Period of business cycle is longer than a year. 3. Presence of the alternating forces of expansion and contraction – Prosperity & depression. 4. Phenomenon of the crisis: this implies that peak & trough are asymmetrical. Normally, the prosperity phase of business comes to an end abruptly, whereas, recovery after the depression isBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  44. 44. PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES • Prosperity – upswing, expansion phase. • Recession – a turn from prosperity to depression • Depression – contraction or downswing • Recovery – turn from depression to prosperity Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  45. 45. PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES • Prosperity phase • Income level tends to raise • Unemployment rate declines • Industrial growth rate accelerates • Actual output level exceeds the potential output level • Investment increases • Investors become more optimistic and more enthusiastic • Consumer demand for goods and services in the market tend to increase, even at the rising prices • Prices tend to raise and provide greater incentives for business expansion. • Interest rates rise • Money supply increases • There is a risk of ‘over –heating’ of the economy • The prosperity phase comes to an end when the forces favouring expansion become progressively weak. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  46. 46. PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES • RECESSIONARY PHASE • The prosperity comes to end when the forces favoring expansion become progressively weak. • Bottlenecks begin to appear at the peak of prosperity. • In fact profit inflation and over optimism which increase the tempo, carry with them the seeds of self destruction. • In view of high profits and business optimism, entrepreneurs invest more and expand further. But scarcity of resources, particularly , shortage of raw materials and labor, causes bottlenecks and business calculations go wrong, • Over optimism pave the way to over –pessimism. • Thus, prosperity digs its own grave.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  47. 47. PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES • DEPRESSIONARY PHASE • Characteristic features of a depression are the reverse of prosperity • Shrinkage in the volume of output, trade and transactions • Rise in the level of unemployment • Price deflation • Fall in aggregate income of the community • Fall in the structure of interest rates. • Contraction of bank credit Prosperity - economic activity will be at its peak Depression – economic activity is at its trough. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  48. 48. PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES RECOVERY /STAGFLATION PHASE • However depression – can’t be permanent feature of an economy. • The revival or recovery phase refers to the lower turning point – undergoes change from depression to prosperity. • Improvement in demand for capital goods, new investment will be induced, such investment will cause rise in employment and income. Increased income in turn will lead to rise in consumption – pushup demand – rise in prices, profits further investment. • Thus during recovery, expansionary process will be self reinforcing. • Revival or recovery phase slowly turns into prosperity and the cycle repeats itself.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  49. 49. INDICATORS OF BUSINESS CYCLE • Gross Domestic Product • Fixed Investment • Net exports • Unemployment rate • Real earnings • CPI Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
  50. 50. TYPES OR TIMINGS OF INDICATORS There are three timings in which these indicators lead to changes in the business cycle namely: 1. Leading: are those indicators due to operation of which, changes in Business cycle happens. Change in leading indicators bring immediate change in the business cycle. E.g. The consumer confidence Index, Industrial new order, personnel consumption of Mfg. goods etc., 2. Coincidental : are those indicators wherein the changes in indicators simultaneously bring changes in the business cycle : e.g. GDP 3. Lagging: are those indicators wherein there is a time lag between indicators change and Business cycle change e.g. Unemployment as it increases after trough of the business & bottom after peak of the business cycle. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
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