A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector at giojit pnb paribas ltd
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A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector at giojit pnb paribas ltd

A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector at giojit pnb paribas ltd

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    A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector at giojit pnb paribas ltd A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector at giojit pnb paribas ltd Document Transcript

    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” INDEX1. Executive Summary…………………………………………………1 – 6 2. Company Profile …….………………………………………….......7 • Profile……………………………………………………. 8 -10 • Products and Services…………………………………...11 - 173. Overview of Stock Market…………………………………….......18 - 244. Introduction to Fundamental & Technical Analysis........................25 - 38 5. EIC Analysis………………...………………………………….....39 • Economic Analysis……………………………………...40 - 43 • Industry Analysis………………………………………..44 - 53 • Company analysis……………………………………….54 - 61 6. Technical Analysis……………….………………………………..62 • Relative Strength Index(RSI)…………………………...63 – 76 • Moving Average………………………………………...77 – 90 • Japanese Candlestick Chart……………………………...91 - 927. Findings…………………………………………………………….93 - 95 8. Conclusion………………………………………………………….96 9. Suggestions……………………………………………………......9710. Bibliography……………………………………………………....98 - 99Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 1
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 2
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARYI. TITLE OF THE PROJECT: “ Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector Undertaken atGeojit Financial Services Ltd.”II. ABOUT THE COMPANY:Name & Address of the Company: - “Geojit Financial Services Ltd.” Bhavani Arcade, 2nd floor, No. 127-A, ‘B’ Block, New Cotton Market Hubli – 580029III. SCOPE OF THE STUDY: This study is most important because both fundamental and technical analysishelps investors in better understanding the markets and gauges the direction in whichtheir investments might be headed and it’s utility helps in estimating the future trends ofthe stock prices and to make a decent profit out of it.IV. BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECT: In the recent past, the bank interest rates have been increased steadily. But the rateof Inflation has also been increased. There is no big difference between the interest rateand Inflation rate. Because of inflation, value of money has been decreased and cost ofliving has been increased. This has created panic among lower, middle and upper middleclass families who considered keeping their savings in banks as safe as well asremunerative. So, the invertors are searching for proper investment avenues. Here, anattempt is made to predict the future movement of scrips. This study helps the investorsto invest in shares. The stock exchange comes in the secondary market. Stock exchange performsactivities such as trading in share, securities, bonds, mutual fund & commodities. StockBroking industry is growing at an enormous rate, as more and more people are attractedtowards stock exchanges with the hope of making profits. To quote couple of examples, the Automobile industry in India has consistentlyregistered strong performance. The automobile industry had a growth of 15.4 % duringApril-January 2007, with the average annual growth of 10-15% over the last decade orso. With the incremental investment of $35-40 billion, the growth is expected to doublein the next 10 years. Consistent growth and dedication have made the Indian automobileindustry the second- largest tractor and two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. It is alsoBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 3
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”the fifth-largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the world. The Indian automobilemarket is among the largest in Asia. The Indian automobile industry is going through a phase of rapid change and highgrowth. With new projects coming up on a regular basis, the industry is undergoingtechnological change. The major players are expanding their plants and focusing on masscustomization, mass production, etc. Nearly every automobile company is investing at ahigher rate than ever before to achieve a high growth trajectory. The overall investmentin the sector has been increasing quite rapidly. It is expected that by the end of 2010Indian automobile sector will be investing a huge amount as Rs. 30,000 crores. At presentthe industry is enjoying a growth rate of 14-17% per annum, with domestic sales growthat 12.8%. The growth rate is predicted to double by 2015.V. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY: 1) To analyze individual company scrips by considering the factors relating to the economy, industry and the respective company. 2) To predict investor positions (Buy, sell & hold). 3) To know the future trend of Stock Prices of Tata Motors and Maruti Udyog Ltd. in capital market. 4) To know which securities to be bought and which securities not to be bought. 5) To know which securities to be sold and which securities not to be sold.VI. METHODOLOGY: Primary data is collected through direct interactions with the Branch Manager,Employees and clients of Geojit Financial Services, Ltd. The Secondary data is collected from the annual reports of the company, relevanttext books on the subject matter and company’s official website.TOOLS:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 4
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 1. Moving Average Method. 2. Relative Strength Index (RSI). 3. Candlestick Charting.LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY: 1. The study is limited only to automobile sector and 2 companies 2. I have used only 3 Technical tools to predict the movement of Scrip’s. 3. Fundamental Analysis is used to analyze only financial performance of the companies. 4. Only Technical Analysis is used to predict the stock prices of the companies.FINDINGS OF THE STUDY:• In case of RSI of Maruti Suzuki Scrip, the best time to sell the stock was between 12 th July 07 to 31st July 07 and 9th October 07 to 18th October 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 2 nd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days.• In case of RSI of Tata Motors, the best time to sell the stock was between 27 th Sep 07 to 4th October 07 and 10th December 07 to 12th December 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 8 th August 07 to 23rd August 07 and 23rd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 as well as between 7th March to 18th March 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days.• The 10 days moving average of Maruti Suzuki scrip, provides a message to the investor that it is a right time to buy the Stock and, the trend of the Moving Average line has been decreased, so it is also a right time to buy the stock.• In case of 10 days Moving Average of Tata Motors Ssrip, the actual Stock price is just below its moving average line. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the Stock Price of Tata Motors.• In Japanese Candle Stick Chart of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. we can see that the stock price has been decreased. Simply Share Prices of Maruti Suzuki Ltd is falling down. It indicates that the investors are becoming more bearish than bullish.• In case of Japanese Candle Stick Chart of Tata Motors, we can observe lot of volatility in stock price. Both the Bullish and Bearish trends are taking place. The Bullish trend is following by Bearish Trend• Fundamentally, financial performance of these companies in respect of sales and profit is good.• If an investor opts for long term investment then he will earn huge amount of return. Long term Investment is known to be less risky.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 5
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”• This study may not provide any guidelines to Speculators. It is useful to Long Term Investors.• Technical analysts evaluate securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, past prices and volume.• One of the most basic and easy to use technical analysis indicators is the moving average, which shows the average value of a securitys price over a period of time. The most commonly used moving averages are 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 50 days, 100 days and 200-days moving average..• One of the most important areas for any investor to look when researching a company is the financial statement. Financial reports are required by law and are published both quarterly and annually.• Indian Economy is consistently achieving a tremendous growth in these Sectors.• If we consider RSI then almost all the scrips of these companies are lying between 30 and 70. It means an investor should hold the scrips until it reaches 70 to sell and 30 to buy.• The stock prices always take a correction after a major climb.• Moving average is one of the best methods of predicting future movement of Stock Price. If we use 200 Day Moving Average for Analysis then volatility of stock will be less. It gives clear picture of movement of Stock.CONCLUSION OF THE STUDY: As we all know India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Indiais consistently achieving growth in automobile sector. The automotive industry iswitnessing tremendous and unprecedented changes these days. On a global scale, theassets of the top ten automotive corporations accounts for 28% of the assets of theworld’s top 50 companies, 29% of their employment and 30% of their total sales. The Indian automobile industry is going through a technological change whereeach firm is engaged in changing its processes and technologies to sustain thecompetitive advantage and provide customers with the optimized products and services. The automobile industry had a growth of 15.4 % during April-January 2007, withthe average annual growth of 10-15% over the last decade or so. With the incrementalinvestment of $35-40 billion, the growth is expected to double in the next 10 years. Consistent growth and dedication have made the Indian automobile industry thesecond- largest tractor and two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. It is also the fifth-Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 6
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the world. The Indian automobile market isamong the largest in Asia. The Ministry of Heavy Industries has released the Automotive Plan 2006-2016,with the motive of making India the most popular manufacturing hub for automobiles andits components in Asia. The plan focuses on the removal of all the bottlenecks that areinhibiting its growth in the domestic as well as international arena. With comparatively higher rate of economic growth rate index against that ofgreat global powers, India has become a hub of domestic and exports business. Theautomobile sector has been contributing its share to the shining economic performance ofIndia in the recent years. The Indian automobile industry is going through a phase of rapid change and highgrowth. With new projects coming up on a regular basis, the industry is undergoingtechnological change. The major players are expanding their plants and focusing on masscustomization, mass production, etc Apart from domestic production, the industry is consistently focusing on theautomobile exports. The auto component segment is contributing a lot in the exportarena. The liberalized policies of the government are now making the companies go formore and more exports. Because of these reasons, the shares of automobile industry are performing welland therefore the share market is attracting people to invest their hard earned money andfind fortune. But lack of knowledge about shares and stock market is making themcautious of investing in this market. They need to be educated as well as guided tominimize the risk and to assess the return on their investment.SUGGESTIONS: 1. Before going to invest, an investor should have clear and adequate knowledge of capital market. 2. It is better to go for Long term Investment rather than the Short term Investment. Because it is less risky and also provides sufficient return. 3. The investors should know the value of money. 4. Practically, stock market activities are very risky. So, investors should be careful while investing. 5. In case of half knowledge about stock market is very dangerous. So, whenever a person wants to invest in stock market he should take necessary tips from the experts or Technical Analysts. 6. Investors should also look into global pressure and market movement in order to look for avenues of investing in different stocks and to take position; some of the sources for understanding global pressure are CNBC TV18, News Paper, Economy watch etc.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 7
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” COMPANY PROFILEBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 8
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” CHAPTER 2 PROFILE OF GEOJIT FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD. Geojit, a joint venture with Kerala State Industrial Development Corporation Ltd.is a pioneer in the retail financial services sector. Over two decades the company hasgrown to offering complete management solutions. Today the company has over Rs.20billion in assets under its custody. Geojit’s shares are listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The company is amember of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd., the Bombay Stock Exchange andthe National Securities Depository Ltd., and a charter member of the Association ofFinancial Planners, India. More than 1000 professionals are operating through over 250offices across the country provide services to a growing retail investor base of 200,000.Prominent institutional clients include banks, mutual funds and other institutions such asUTI and insurance companies. Geojit has a large pool of certified professionals who plan, execute and managecustomized investment strategies for clientele. Financial literacy programmes areconducted on a regular basis through the branch network to raise investment awareness. Early application of innovative technology in the industry led to many nationalfirsts such as internet trading, electronic securities settlement on the web and an onlineintegrated trading screen for stocks and derivatives.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 9
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” YEAR EVENTS1988 The company, Geojit Securities Limited (GSL), was a partnership firm, with two partners Mr. C.J. George and Mr. Ranjit, under the name and style of M/s Geojit & Company established on 4th November, to act as stock and share brokers with membership on the Cochin Stock Exchange.1994 - The company was incorporated as a Public Limited Company on 24 th November and obtained its Certificate of commencement of business on 25th January 1995. - The company is at present engaged in the activities of stock and share broking, underwriting, marketing of initial public offering of companies and mutual funds, corporate advisory services, investments in shares, participating in Bought Out Deals, syndication of inter-corporate deposits, debt, bought-outs etc. - The company has at present branches at Trichur, Kottayam, Muvattupuzha and Coimbatore apart from having representative offices at Mumbai.1995 The company has a subsidiary in the name of Geojit Stock and Shares Limited (GSSL) to carry on the activities as a Dealer of Over The Counter Exchange of India.1996 - The company had made a public issue of equity shares aggregating to Rs.95/- lakhs, during the period under report which received an overwhelming support and was oversubscribed over 14 times. - The Company held 100% of the paid up Capital of Rs.30,00,000/- M/s Geojit Stock & Shares Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company as at 31st March.1998 The Company, a joint venture company with Kerala State Industrial Development Corporation (KSIDC), has announced improved working results for 1997-98.1999 - The equity shares of the company are presently listed at five Stock Exchanges viz., Madras, Ahemedabad, Coimbatore, Delhi and Cochin - The Company based in Kochi, to set up a full-fledged office in the UAE, which will not only enable it to deal in Indian shares and securities, but also help it become a licensed stock broking company in that country.2000 - Geojit Securities Ltd, a leading retail share broking firm launched Internet securities trading for the first time in India. - Geojit Securities is a joint venture with Kerala State Industrial Development Corporation (KSIDC) with branches in 40 cities. - ABN Amro Bank is set to pick up an equity stake in Geojit Securities Ltd one of the largest stock brokers and depository participant in the country. - The company is planning to introduce multi-bank, multi-DP interfaces to facilitate and promote Internet trading in the country.Geojit Securities Ltd,Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 10
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” the first company to start online trading services, has signed a MoU with UTI Bank to enable investors to buysell demat stocks through the companys website. - The Company has signed a deal with Centurion Bank to provide payment gateway for Internet trading. - The Company launched its online interface with HDFC Bank for Internet trading. - Geojit Securities Ltd, a leading stock broking company, has decided to issue bonus shares at 1:1 ratio, to capitalize part of general reserve. -2001 - The Kochi-based retail broking firm, Geojit Securities Ltd., is setting up an overseas venture jointly with a UAE partner to provide broking and depository services to NRIs in the Gulf countries. - Geojit Securities has inked a joint venture (JV) with UAE based brokerage house Barjeel Shares & Bonds to set up a 20:80 joint venture with an initial capital of $ 1 million, christened Barjeel Geojit Securities. - Bonus Shares were issued by the company in the ratio 1:1.2002 Sheikh Sultan Bin Saud Al Qasimi appointed as Director of Geojit Securities. Mr. T Koshy appointed as Director of Geojit Securities with effect from October 26, 20022003 The Company has unveiled a new logo and changed its name to Geojit Financial Services Ltd, offering a growing range of new and innovative financial products and services.2004 - Geojit Securities inks pact with Doha Bank - UTI Bank, Geojit in pact for trading platform in Qatar - Delists shares from Cochin Stock Exchange - Shares of Geojit Securities Ltd delisted from Coimbatore Stock Exchange from May 21 and Madras Stock Exchange effective May 31 - Geojit Financial Services Ltd in association with Doha Bank launches India Wealth Management Services for non-resident Indians living in Qatar2005 Geojit has tied up with global financial investments SAOG, Muscat, in the Sultanate of Oman2006 Geojit Financial Services Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on October 22, 2006, has approved the proposal of the Company to issue and allot to BNP Paribas S.A. (the "Investor"), on a preferential allotment basis, equity shares, warrants convertible into equity shares or any combination thereof, such that the total number of equity shares issued (whether as equity shares or upon the conversion of the warrants) shall not exceed 7,96,31,170 equity shares of Re 1, at price of Rs 26 per equity share, which has been determined in accordance with the applicable laws and guidelinesBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 11
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” PRODUCTS AND SERVICESPRODUCTS:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 12
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” • Equity • F & O (Futures and Options) • Margin Trading Funding Scheme • Loan Against Shares • Loan Against Commodity Trading • Depository • Commodity • Portfolio Management Services (PMS)1) Equity: Equity/ordinary share capital, as a long-term source of finance, representsownership capital/securities and its owners – equity-holders/ordinary shareholders –share the reward and risk associated with the ownership of corporate enterprises. Ashareholder can exercise, sell in the market and renounce/forfeit his pre-emptive rightspartially/completely. He does not gain/lose from rights issues. Ordinary share capital is ahigh-risk-high-reward source of finance for corporate. The shareholders share the risk,return and control associated with ownership of companies.2) F & O (Futures and Options): The National Stock Exchange and The Stock Exchange, Mumbai have commencedtrading in Derivatives Market with Index Futures being the first instrument. Now both theexchanges provide trading in Index Futures and Options and Stock Futures and Options. A derivative is a financial contract, between two or more parties, which is derivedfrom the future value of an underlying asset. At any point of time there will always beavailable near three months contract periods. For e.g. in the month of Jan 2006 one canenter into Jan, Feb or Mar contracts. The last Thursday of each month is the expiry dayfor that month’s contract. When one contract expires, a new contract is introduced. Forinstance, on expiry of Jan 2006 contract, April contract shall get activated. Currently, settlements of all Derivatives trades are in cash. There is Daily as well asFinal Settlement. As long as the position is open, the same will be marked to Market atthe Daily Settlement Price, the difference will be credited or debited accordingly and theposition shall be brought forward to the next day at the daily settlement price. Anyposition which remains open at the end of the final settlement day (i.e., last Thursday)shall be closed out by the Exchange at the Final Settlement Price which will be theclosing spot value of the underlying. There are two types of margins collected on the open position, viz., Initial Marginwhich is collected upfront and Mark to Market Margin to be paid on T+1 day. As perSEBI Guidelines it is mandatory for clients to give margin, failing which the outstandingpositions may be closed out.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 13
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”There are three types of Members in the Futures and Options Segment:Trading Members are only eligible to trade, their trades are settled by the ClearingMembers.Trading cum clearing members are members who are eligible to trade and also settletrades on their own behalf and also settle on behalf of other trading members.Professional Clearing Members are members who are only specialized in the clearingand settlement activities. They do not trade on their own behalf or on behalf of othermembersSelf Clearing Members are those who trade and settle only their own trades. GeojitFinancial Services Ltd is trading cum clearing member at NSE.3) Margin Trading Funding Scheme: In Marginal Trading, an Investor buys securities by borrowing a portion of thetransaction value and using the securities in the portfolio as collateral. An investor whopurchases securities may pay for the securities fully in cash or may borrow a part of thetransaction value from the brokerage firm.4) Loan Against Shares: Geojit Credits Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of Geojit Financial Services Ltd, registeredas a Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFC) offers Loans against security of shares. Thefacility is available to all customers of Geojit Financial Services Ltd.Key Features of the Scheme: 1. All securities defined under Group I of NSE are eligible for Loan against Shares 2. Loan is provided against a minimum of two securities and minimum loan amount is Rs.50000/- 3. Loan up to 50% of the current market value of approved shares. 4. Upper ceiling on quantum of loan shall be as determined by Geojit Credits P Ltd on a case to case basis 5. Speedy disbursal through RTGS / direct credit to the customer’s bank account / cheque 6. Hassle free processing and simple documentation 7. Securities are to be transferred to Geojit Credits Pvt. Ltd 8. Fixed charges of 1.00 % of loan amount is charged upfront and is non refundable. 9. Rate of interest is 14 % p.a. for Loans above Rs 3 lacs and 15% pa for Loans upto Rs 3 lacs. This is subject to change from time to time. Interest is charged on Daily Outstanding Balance in Loan account at monthly rests. Interest debited every month should be repaid by chque/DD payable at Kochi with in 7 days of debit.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 14
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 10. The credit is provided as an overdraft facility for a period of One year at a time, renewable by mutual consent. 11. Loan can also be redeemed by instructing Geojit Credits Pvt. Ltd to sell the securities 12. Loans are re-valued daily 13. Margin calls are made if the value of the securities fall by 10% which can be met with either by redeeming the loan partially or placing additional securities 14. Securities may be liquidated if the margins are not furnished in case of a fall of 20% value of the securities5) Loan Against Commodity Trading: Geojit Credits Pvt. Ltd offers loans against Pledge of Warehouse Receipts fordelivery at Commodity Exchanges.Key Features of the Scheme 1. Loans against Pledge of Physical and Demat warehouse receipts 2. Loans up to 80% of sale value price contracted for Futures delivery 3. Loans are also considered against Pledge of warehouse receipts without Futures Sell contract on a case-to-case basis at higher margins ranging from 30% to 50% of the value 4. Loans available till sale proceeds are realised on settlement from the Commodity Exchange else upto a maximum of three months 5. Provision to switch between different future contracts (subject to validity of warehouse receipts) 6. Simple documentation 7. Speedy disbursal of loans through RTGS6) Depository: A depository can be compared to a bank. It holds securities such as shares,debentures, bonds, government securities, units etc. of investors in electronic form. Thereare two depositories in India, The National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) andCentral Depository Services Limited (CDSL). An individual who desires to avail thedepository services can approach a Depository Participant (DP). Banks, financialinstitutions, custodians, brokers or any other entity eligible as per SEBI (Depositories andParticipants) Regulations, 1996 can apply to the Depository to become a DepositoryParticipant. As on 31st March, 2006 there are 526 Depository Participants in India. Geojit, is a depository participant of NSDL & CDSL. Investors can open demataccounts with NSDL & CDSL through Geojit. One can approach the nearest branch ofGeojit for opening an account. Agreement charges (statutory charges) along with AnnualBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 15
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”Maintenance Charge (AMC) are collected upfront while opening an account. It takes twoto three days to open a demat account. Upon activation of the demat account, a WelcomeLetter is sent to the customer along with the Delivery Instruction Slip book.DP facilities offered by Geojit • De-materialization: Consumers can convert their physical shares into electronic form by surrendering the shares for dematerialization at the Geojit branch. • Re-materialization: Re-materialization enables consumers to convert the dematerialized shares into physical form. • Repurchase: This facility helps consumers to submit the units of open-ended Mutual Funds in case of re-purchase. • Pledge: Consumers can pledge securities to avail a loan. • Transfer: Consumers can transfer securities from one demat account to another. • IPOs: In case consumers have applied for an IPO and receive an allotment then the securities are transferred directly to their demat account. The same applies for bonus and rights issues. • Commodity De-mat Account: If consumers are a commodity player, they may need to open a commodity de-mat account with Geojit. • Speed-e: If consumers register for Speed-e services, then transfer instructions can be placed online over the internet to pre-notified Clearing Members Pool a/c. This does away with the need to submit a physical delivery instruction slip. • Internet Services: If consumer have access to Internet then they can register with Geojit to view their demat account over the Internet. This is very beneficial as consumers can avail of a host of services at no extra cost. They will be able to view their holdings,reports,ledgers and will have free access to Geojit’s research reports at any time. • SMS Alert Facility: The alert messages for debits (transfers) and IPO credits would be sent to the account holders who have subscribed to this facility. Depository provides this facility and no charge is levied on DPs for providing this service to investors.7) Commodity: Geojit Commodities, a subsidiary of Geojit Financial Services Limited, is mainlyengaged in the business of Commody Futures Trading. Geojit Commodities is a memberof: • National Multi – Commodity Exchange of India limited (NMCE) • National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) • Multi – Commodity Exchange (MCX) • India Pepper and Spice Trade Association (IPSTA) • Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM) • Dubai Gold Commodity Exchange (DGCX).Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 16
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Geojit provides information on commodity futures, along with technical andfundamental analysis online at its website and also through the companys large branchnetwork. The company conducts Seminars, distributes free in-house literature and holdsinteractive sessions that help raise awareness on the futures market. The number ofparticipants is continuously on the rise thus leading to increased volumes and marketefficiency. Geojit Commodity offers futures trading through multiple exchanges in variedcommodities such as: • Agri commodities: oilseeds, soya, groundnut, pulses, rice, wheat, sugar, spices, rubber, guar, pepper, cardamom, coffee, etc • Precious metals: gold and silver, • Base metals: steel, aluminium, nickel, zinc, copper, etc • Energy products: crude oil and furnace oil Geojits clientele in commodities range from investors, co-operative societies, stateand national institutions to dealers, traders, manufacturers, financiers, speculators,arbitragers,etc. Geojit does not have proprietary interest in any commodity and therefore is priceneutral. Transaction costs are highly affordable attracting a spectrum of investors.Membership in multiple exchanges gives clients the added advantage of arbitrage. Geojithas specialized staff that provide the required guidance, help and enable clients to enter atthe appropriate price.8) PMS (Portfolio Management Services): Geojit, a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager (Reg. No.INP000000316) offersdiscretionary portfolio management services. Geojit has a team of experts who carefullytake investment decisions based on the clients objectives. The Portfolio Managementteam has a successful track record of more than 10 years in the capital market. The teamhas access to Geojits strong Equity Research, and Fundamental & Technical Analysis.Investment Objective: To generate medium to long-term capital growth (2-3 years) byidentifying undervalued stocks and those with growth opportunities from a select list ofwell researched stocks.Strategy: Identifying growth stocks from a select list through extensive research.Minimum Investment: Rs.10 lakhs for resident Indians and Rs.25 lakhs for Non-Resident Indians.Reports: Portfolio and NAV are communicated bi-weekly via e-mail.Risk factors: As the stocks are normally held for medium to long term, the net assetvalue will be affected by market volatility.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 17
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”PMS fee:Option 1: 3% p.a. (charged @0.75% at the end of every quarter on the average ofbeginning and ending NAV).Option 2: 1% p.a. (charged @0.25% at the end of every quarter on the average ofbeginning and ending NAV) and performance fee.Performance fee: 20% on gain in NAV over and above 12% p.a. based on the highwatermark concept charged at the end of the year or on withdrawal. OVERVIEW OF EQUITY MARKETBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 18
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” CHAPTER 3 OVERVIEW OF EQUITY MARKET IN INDIA BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange)SENSEX - THE BAROMETER OF INDIAN CAPITAL MARKETSIntroduction: For the premier Stock Exchange that pioneered the stock broking activity in India,128 years of experience seems to be a proud milestone. A lot has changed since 1875when 318 persons became members of what today is called "The Stock Exchange,Mumbai" by paying a princely amount of Re1. Since then, the countrys capital markets have passed through both good and badperiods. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one. Till the decade ofeighties, there was no scale to measure the ups and downs in the Indian stock market. TheStock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) in 1986 came out with a stock index that subsequentlybecame the barometer of the Indian stock market. SENSEX is not only scientifically designed but also based on globally acceptedconstruction and review methodology. First compiled in 1986, SENSEX is a basket of 30constituent stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representative companies.The base year of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100. The index is widelyBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 19
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”reported in both domestic and international markets through print as well as electronicmedia. The Index was initially calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization"methodology but was shifted to the free-float methodology with effect from September 1,2003. The "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology of index construction isregarded as an industry best practice globally. All major index providers like MSCI,FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the Free-float methodology. Due to its wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors, SENSEX is regarded tobe the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, it provides thetime series data over a fairly long period of time (From 1979 onwards). Small wonder,the SENSEX has over the years become one of the most prominent brands in the country. The growth of equity markets in India has been phenomenal in the decade goneby. Right from early nineties the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms ofvarious bull and bear runs. The SENSEX captured all these events in the most judicialmanner. One can identify the booms and busts of the Indian stock market throughSENSEX.SENSEX MILESTONES: Robust portfolio investments and heavy fund buying lifted the Bombay StockExchanges benchmark 30-share Sensex past the magical 12,000 mark. The Sensexfinally closed at an all-time high of 12,040 points. This is the fastest 1,000-point gain by the Sensex. It only took 15 trading sessionsfor the index to cross from 11,000 to 12,000. Interestingly, the Sensex has taken only 10months to gain 5,000 points! The unprecedented Bull Run started on May 6, 2003 when the Sensex was at3,001.21 level. In took just 67 trading sessions to cross the 4,000-mark and touch4,026.27 points on August 19, 2003. The rally continued and the index gained another 1,000 points in 54 tradingsessions to post 5,068.66 points on November 3, 2003. Thereafter, it pierced through the 6,000 mark on January 2, 2004 in another 43trading sessions. The market then seemed to pause for breath as it took a whopping 370trading sessions to cross the 7,000 mark, at 7001.55 on June 20, 2005. From 7,000-mark, the sentiment turned distinctly firm following good liquiditythat played a significant role to determine the market direction and Sensex crossed 8,000-mark in just 55 trading sessions at 8, 060.26 on September 8, 2005 and 54 trading days tocross 9,000-mark at 9, 005.63 on November 28, 2005.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 20
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” From 9K to 10K, it took just 48 trading sessions. The index crossed 10,000-markon February 6, 2006 at 10,002.83. From 10K to 11K, it only took 29 trading sessions. The Bombay Stock Exchange, the oldest stock exchange in Asia, was establishedin 1875 as the Native Share and Stock Brokers Association at Dalal Street in Mumbai. Alot has changed since then when 318 persons became members upon paying Re 1. In 1956, the BSE obtained permanent recognition from the Government of India-- the first stock exchange to do so -- under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act,1956. The Sensex, first compiled in 1986, is a Market Capitalization-Weighted Indexof 30 component stocks representing a sample of large and financially sound companies.The BSE- Sensex is the benchmark index of the Indian capital markets. The BSE Sensex comprises these 30 stocks: ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Tele,BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddys, Gujarat Ambuja, Grasim, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda,Hindalco, HLL, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Maruti, NTPC, ONGC, Ranbaxy,Reliance, Reliance Energy, Satyam, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Power, TCS, Tata Motorsand Wipro. Heres a timeline on the rise and rise of the Sensex through Indian stockmarket history.• 1000, July 25, 1990- On July 25, 1990, the Sensex touched the magical four-digit figure for the first time and closed at 1,001 in the wake of a good monsoon and excellent corporate results.• 2000, January 15, 1992 -On January 15, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 2,000-mark and closed at 2,020 followed by the liberal economic policy initiatives undertaken by the then finance minister and current Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.• 3000, February 29, 1992 -On February 29, 1992, the Sensex surged past the 3000 mark in the wake of the market-friendly Budget announced by the then Finance Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh.• 4000, March 30, 1992 -On March 30, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 4,000-mark and closed at 4,091 on the expectations of a liberal export-import policy. It was then that the Harshad Mehta scam hit the markets and Sensex witnessed unabated selling.• 5000, October 8, 1999 -On October 8, 1999, the Sensex crossed the 5,000-mark as the BJP-led coalition won the majority in the 13th Lok Sabha election.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 21
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”• 6000, February 11, 2000 -On February 11, 2000, the infotech boom helped the Sensex to cross the 6,000-mark and hit and all time high of 6,006.• 7000, June 20, 2005 -On June 20, 2005, the news of the settlement between the Ambani brothers boosted investor sentiments and the scrips of RIL, Reliance Energy, Reliance Capital and IPCL made huge gains. This helped the Sensex crossed 7,000 points for the first time.• 8000, September 8, 2005 -On September 8, 2005, the Bombay Stock Exchanges benchmark 30-share index -- the Sensex -- crossed the 8000 level following brisk buying by foreign and domestic funds in early trading.• 9000, November 28, 2005 -The Sensex on November 28, 2005 crossed the magical figure of 9000 to touch 9000.32 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange on the back of frantic buying spree by foreign institutional investors and well supported by local operators as well as retail investors.• 10,000, February 7, 2006 - The Sensex on February 6, 2006 touched 10,003 points during mid-session. The Sensex finally closed above the 10K-mark on February 7, 2006.• 11,000, March 27, 2006 - The Sensex on March 21, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 11,000 and touched a life-time peak of 11,001 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange for the first time. However, it was on March 27, 2006 that the Sensex first closed at over 11,000 points.• 12,000, April 20, 2006 - The Sensex on April 20, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 12,000 and closed at a lifetime peak of 12,040 points for the first time.• 13,000, October 30, 2006- The Sensex had touched the 13,000 level on October 30.• 14,000, December 5, 2006- The Bombay Stock Exchanges 30-share benchmark stock index, the Sensex, crossed the 14,000 mark, Tuesday, December 5, opening with a bang at 14,028, up 154 points from its previous close, thanks to a freak trade at the Reliance counter which saw the stock open at Rs. 1,350, up Rs. 90 from the previous days close. With the index completing the last 1,000 point journey in just 26 sessions.• 15,000, July 6, 2007- The Sensex on July 6, 2007 crossed another milestone and reached a magic figure of 15,000. it took almost 7 month and 1 day to touch such a historic milestone.• 16,000, September 19, 2007- The Sensex on September 19, 2007 crossed the 16,000 mark and reached a historic peak of 16322 while closing. The bull hits because of the rate cut of 50 bps in the discount rate by the Fed chief Ben Bernanke in US.• 17,000, September 26, 2007- The Sensex on September 26, 2007 crossed the 17,000 mark for the first time, creating a record for the second fastest 1000 point gain in justBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 22
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 5 trading sessions. It failed however to sustain the momentum and closed below 17000. The Sensex closed above 17000 for the first time on the following day. Reliance group has been the main contributor in this bull run, contributing 256 points. This also helped Mukesh Ambanis net worth to grow to over $50 billion or Rs.2 trillion. It was also during this record bull run that the Sensex for the first time zoomed ahead of the Nikkei of Japan.• 18,000, October 9, 2007- The Sensex crossed the 18k mark for the first time on October 9, 2007. The journey from 17k to 18k took just 8 trading sessions which is the third fastest 1000 point rise in the history of the sensex. The sensex closed at 18,280 at the end of day. This 788 point gain on 9th October was the second biggest single day absolute gains.• 19,000, October 15, 2007- The Sensex crossed the 19k mark for the first time on October 15th 2007. It took just 4 days to reach from 18k to 19k. This is the fastest 1000 points rally ever and also the 640 point rally was the second highest single day rally in absolute terms. This made it a record 3000 point rally in 17 trading sessions overall.• 20,000, October 29, 2007- The Sensex crossed the 20k mark for the first time with a massive 734.5 point gain but closed below the 20k mark. It took 11 days to reach from 19k to 20k. The journey of the last 10,000 points was covered in just 869 sessions as against 7,297 sessions taken to touch the 10,000 mark from 1,000 levels. In 2007 alone, there were six 1,000-point rallies for the Sensex.• 21,000, January 8, 2008 NSE (NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE)The Organization: The National Stock Exchange of India Limited has genesis in the report of theHigh Powered Study Group on Establishment of New Stock Exchanges, whichrecommended promotion of a National Stock Exchange by financial institutions (FIs) toprovide access to investors from all across the country on an equal footing. Based on therecommendations, NSE was promoted by leading Financial Institutions at the behest ofthe Government of India and was incorporated in November 1992 as a tax-payingcompany unlike other stock exchanges in the country. On its recognition as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation)Act, 1956 in April 1993, NSE commenced operations in the Wholesale Debt Market(WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities) segment commencedoperations in November 1994 and operations in Derivatives segment commenced in June2000.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 23
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”NIFTY: The Nifty is relatively a new comer in the Indian market. S&P CNX Nifty is a 50stock index accounting for 23 sectors of the economy. It is used for purposes such asbenchmarking fund portfolios; index based derivatives and index funds. The base period selected for Nifty is the close of prices on November 3, 1995,which marked the completion of one-year of operations of NSEs capital market segment.The base value of index was set at 1000. S&P CNX Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and ProductsLtd. (IISL), which is a joint venture between NSE and CRISIL. IISL is a specializedcompany focused upon the index as a core product. IISL have a consulting and licensingagreement with Standard & Poors (S&P), who are world leaders in index services.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 24
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHAPTER 4Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 25
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSISFUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: Fundamental analysis is the method of evaluating securities by attempting tomeasure the intrinsic value of a particular stock. It is the study of everything from theoverall economy and industry conditions, to the financial condition and management ofspecific companies (i.e., using real data to evaluate a stock’s value). The method utilizesitems such as revenues, earnings, return on equity and profit margins to determine acompany’s underlying value and potential for future growth. One of the major assumptions under fundamental analysis is that, even thoughthings get mis priced in the market from time to time, the price of an asset will eventuallygravitate toward its true value. This seems to be a reasonable bet considering the longupward march of quality stocks in general despite regular setbacks and periods ofirrational exuberance. The key strategy for the fundamentalist is to buy when prices are ator below this intrinsic value and sell when they got overpriced.Fundamental analysis for identifying industries with growth potential : After the objects of investment portfolio in terms of risk and return have beenspecified, one of the first decisions that an investment manager faces is to identify theindustries, which have a high growth potential. Two approaches are suggested in thisregard: a) Statistical analysis of past performance: A statistical analysis of the immediate past performance of the share price indices of the various industries and changes therein related to the general price index of shares of all industries should be made. The Reserve Bank of India index numbers of security prices published every month in its bulletin may be taken to represent the behavior of share prices of the various industries in the last few years. The relative changes in the price index of each industry as compared with the changes in the average price index of the shares of all industries would show those industries which are having a higher growth potential in the past few years. It may be noted that an industry may not remain a growth industry for all the time. The analysis of share price indices over a number of years will enable the investment manager to identify the industries, which are rated high by the investors at the time of analysis. By this, one can perceive industries having a higher growth in their share prices indices and examine whether the growth potential is still there or not. In other words, the investment manager shall now have to make an assessment of the various characteristics of the industries to finalize a list of industries in which he will try to spread the investments. b) Assessing the intrinsic value of an industry/company: After an investment manager has identified statistically the industries in the share of which the investors show interest, he would assess the various factors, which influence the value of a particular share. These factors generally relate to the strengths andBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 26
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” weaknesses of the company under consideration, characteristics of the industry within which the company falls and the national and international economic scene. It is the job of the investment manager to examine and weigh the various factors and judge the quality of the share or the security under consideration. This approach is known as the intrinsic value approach.TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Technical analysis is the examination of past price movements to forecast futureprice movements. Technical analysts are sometimes referred to as chartists because theyrely almost exclusively on charts for their analysis.Moving Average: A Moving Average is an indicator that shows the average value of a securitysprice over a period of time. When calculating a moving average, a mathematical analysisof the securitys average value over a predetermined time period is made. As thesecurities price changes, its average price moves up or down. There are several popular ways to calculate a moving average. Meta Stock forJava calculates a "simple" moving average--meaning that equal weight is given to eachprice over the calculation period.Interpretation: The most popular method of interpreting a moving average is to compare therelationship between a moving average of the securitys price with the securitys priceitself. A buy signal is generated when the securitys price rises above its moving averageand a sell signal is generated when the securitys price falls below its moving average. This type of moving average trading system is not intended to get you in at theexact bottom nor out at the exact top. Rather, it is designed to keep you in line with thesecuritys price trend by buying shortly after the securitys price bottoms and sellingshortly after it tops. The critical element in a moving average is the number of time periods used incalculating the average. When using hindsight, you can always find a moving averagethat would have been profitable. The key is to find a moving average that will beconsistently profitable. The most popular moving average is the 39-week (or 200-day)moving average. This moving average has an excellent track record in timing the major(long-term) market cycles.Advantages:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 27
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The advantage of moving average system of this type (i.e., buying and sellingwhen prices break through their moving average) is that you will always be on the "right"side of the market: prices cannot rise very much without the price rising above its averageprice. The disadvantage is that you will always buy and sell some late. If the trend doesnot last for a significant period of time, typically twice the length of the moving average,you will lose your money.Support and Resistance: Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply anddemand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) anddemand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand issynonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeablythroughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supplyincreases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways asbulls and bears slug it out for control.What Is Support? Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough toprevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declinestowards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellersbecome less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believedthat demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support. Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bearshave won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to selland/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers havereduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyerscould not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below theprevious low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established ata lower level.Where Is Support Established? Support levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for asecurity to trade at or near support. Technical analysis is not an exact science and it issometimes difficult to set exact support levels. In addition, price movements can bevolatile and dip below support briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider asupport level broken if the price closes 1/8 below the established support level. For thisreason, some traders and investors establish support zones.What Is Resistance? Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough toprevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towardsBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 28
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy.By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcomedemand and prevent the price from rising above resistance. Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that thebulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness tobuy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyershave increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition,sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above theprevious high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to beestablished at a higher level.Where Is Resistance Established? Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for asecurity to trade at or near resistance. In addition, price movements can be volatile andrise above resistance briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistancelevel broken if the price closes 1/8 above the established resistance level. For this reason,some traders and investors establish resistance zones. So, Here, Identification of key support and resistance levels is an essentialingredient to successful technical analysis. Even though it is sometimes difficult toestablish exact support and resistance levels, being aware of their existence and locationcan greatly enhance analysis and forecasting abilities. If a security is approaching animportant support level, it can serve as an alert to be extra vigilant in looking for signs ofincreased buying pressure and a potential reversal. If a security is approaching aresistance level, it can act as an alert to look for signs of increased selling pressure andpotential reversal. If a support or resistance level is broken, it signals that the relationshipbetween supply and demand has changed. A resistance breakout signals that demand(bulls) has gained the upper hand and a support break signals that supply (bears) has wonthe battle.Price Oscillator: The Price Oscillator displays the difference between two moving averages of asecuritys price. The difference between the moving averages can be expressed in eitherpoints or percentages.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 29
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The Price Oscillator is almost identical to the MACD, except that the PriceOscillator can use any two user-specified moving averages. (The MACD always uses 12and 26-day moving averages, and always expresses the difference in points.)Interpretation: Moving average analysis typically generates buy signals when a short-termmoving average (or the securitys price) rises above a longer-term moving average.Conversely, sell signals are generated when a shorter-term moving average (or thesecuritys price) falls below a longer-term moving average. The Price Oscillatorillustrates the cyclical and often profitable signals generated by these one or two movingaverage systems.Price Rate-Of-Change: The Price Rate-of-Change ("ROC") indicator displays the difference between thecurrent price and the price x-time periods ago. The difference can be displayed in eitherpoints or as a percentage. The Momentum indicator displays the same information, butexpresses it as a ratio.Interpretation: It is a well-recognized phenomenon that security prices surge ahead and retract ina cyclical wave-like motion. This cyclical action is the result of the changingexpectations as bulls and bears struggle to control prices. The ROC displays the wave-like motion in an oscillator format by measuring theamount that prices have changed over a given time period. As prices increase, the ROCrises; as prices fall, the ROC falls. The greater the change in prices, the greater thechange in the ROC. The time period used to calculate the ROC may range from 1-day (which resultsin a volatile chart showing the daily price change) to 200-days (or longer). The mostpopular time periods are the 12- and 25-day ROC for short to intermediate-term trading.These time periods were popularized by Gerald Appel and Fred Hitschler in their book,Stock Market Trading Systems. The 12-day ROC is an excellent short- to intermediate-term overbought/oversoldindicator. The higher the ROC, the more overbought the security; the lower the ROC, themore likely a rally. However, as with all overbought/oversold indicators, it is prudent towait for the market to begin to correct (i.e., turn up or down) before placing your trade.A market that appears overbought may remain overbought for some time. In fact,extremely overbought/oversold readings usually imply a continuation of the currenttrend.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 30
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The 12-day ROC tends to be very cyclical, oscillating back and forth in a fairlyregular cycle. Often, price changes can be anticipated by studying the previous cycles ofthe ROC and relating the previous cycles to the current marketRelative Strength Index (RSI): The Relative Strength Index ("RSI") is a popular oscillator. It was firstintroduced by Welles Wilder in an article in Commodities (now known as Futures)Magazine in June, 1978. The name "Relative Strength Index" is slightly misleading as the RelativeStrength Index does not compare the relative strength of two securities, but rather theinternal strength of a single security. A more appropriate name might be "InternalStrength Index."Interpretation: When Wilder introduced the Relative Strength Index, he recommended using a14-day Relative Strength Index. Since then, the 9-day and 25-day Relative StrengthIndexs have also gained popularity. The fewer days used to calculate the RelativeStrength Index, the more volatile the indicator. The Relative Strength Index is a price-following oscillator that ranges between 0and 100. A popular method of analyzing the Relative Strength Index is to look for adivergence in which the security is making a new high, but the Relative Strength Index isfailing to surpass its previous high. This divergence is an indication of an impendingreversal. When the Relative Strength Index then turns down and falls below its mostrecent trough, it is said to have completed a "failure swing." The failure swing isconsidered a confirmation of the impending reversal.In Mr. Wilders book, he discusses five uses of the Relative Strength Index: 1. Tops and Bottoms. The Relative Strength Index usually tops above 70 and bottoms below 30. It usually forms these tops and bottoms before the underlying price chart. 2. Chart Formations. The Relative Strength Index often forms chart patterns such as head and shoulders or triangles that may or may not be visible on the price chart. 3. Failure Swings (also known as support or resistance penetrations or breakouts). This is where the Relative Strength Index surpasses a previous high (peak) or falls below a recent low (trough). 4. Support and Resistance. The Relative Strength Index shows, sometimes more clearly than price themselves, levels of support and resistance.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 31
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 5. Divergences. As discussed above, divergences occur when the price makes a new high (or low) that is not confirmed by a new high (or low) in the Relative Strength Index. Prices usually correct and move in the direction of the Relative Strength Index.Trendlines: In the preceding section, we saw how support and resistance levels can bepenetrated by a change in investor expectations (which results in shifts of thesupply/demand lines). This type of a change is often abrupt and "news based." In this section, well review "trends." A trend represents a consistent change inprices (i.e., a change in investor expectations). Trends differ from support/resistancelevels in that trends represent change, whereas support/resistance levels represent barriersto change. As shown in the following chart, a rising trend is defined by successively higherlow-prices. A rising trend can be thought of as a rising support level--the bulls are incontrol and are pushing prices higher. As shown in the next chart, a falling trend is defined by successively lower high-prices. A falling trend can be thought of as a falling resistance level--the bears are incontrol and are pushing prices lower.The Bar Chart:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 32
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The Bar chart is one of the most popular types of charts used in technical analysis.As illustrated on the left, the top of the vertical line indicates the highest price at which asecurity traded during the day, and the bottom represents the lowest price. The closingprice is displayed on the right side of the bar and the opening price is shown on the leftside of the bar. A single bar like the one to the left represents one day of trading.The chart below is an example of a bar chart for AT&T (T): The advantage of using a bar chart over a straight-line graph is that it shows thehigh, low, open and close for each particular day.Candle stick Charting: Candlestick charts have been around for hundreds of years. They are oftenreferred to as "Japanese candles" because the Japanese would use them to analyze theprice of rice contracts. Similar to a bar chart, candlestick charts also display the open, close, daily highand daily low. The difference is the use of color to show if the stock went up or downover the day.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 33
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The chart below is an example of a candlestick chart for AT&T (T). Green barsindicate the stock price rose, red indicates a decline: Investors seem to have a "love/hate" relationship with candlestick charts. Peopleeither love them and use them frequently or they are completely turned off by them.There are several patterns to look for with candlestick charts - here are a few of thepopular ones and what they mean. This is a bullish pattern - the stock opened at (or near) its low and closed near its high.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 34
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The opposite of the pattern above, this is a bearish pattern. It indicates that the stock opened at (or near) its high and dropped substantially to close near its low. Known as "the hammer", this is a bullish pattern only if it occurs after the stock price has dropped for several days. A small body along with a large range identifies a hammer. This pattern indicates that a reversal in the downtrend is in the works. Known as a "star”. For the most part, stars typically indicate a reversal and or indecision. There is a possibility that after seeing a star there will be a reversal or change in the current trend.Point and Figure Chart: The point & figure (P&F) chart is somewhat rare. In fact, most charting servicesdo not even offer it. This chart plots day-to-day increases and declines in price: increasesare represented by a rising stack of "X"s, while decreases are represented by a decliningstack of "O"s. This type of chart was traditionally used for intraday charting (a stockchart for just one day), mainly because it can be long and tedious to create a P&F chartmanually over a longer period of time.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 35
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The idea behind P&F charts is that they help you to filter out less significant pricemovements and to focus on the most important trends. Below is an example of a P&Fchart for AT&T (T):POPULAR CHARTING PATTERNS: Technical analysts often use proven successful price patterns from great stocks astools to find new great stocks. Lets look at a few examples • Cup and Handle - This is a pattern on a bar chart that can be as short as seven weeks and as long as 65 weeks. The cup is in the shape of a "U". The handle has a slight downward drift. The right-hand side of the pattern has low trading volume. As the stock comes up to test the old highs, the stock will incur selling pressure by the people who bought at or near the old high. This selling pressure will make the stock price trade sideways with a tendency towards a downtrend for anywhere from four days to four weeks, then it will take off. This pattern looks like a pot with a handle. It is one of the easier patterns to detect; and investors have made a lot of money using it.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 36
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” • Head and Shoulders - This is a chart formation resembling an "M" in which a stocks price: - Rises to a peak and then declines, then - Rises above the former peak and again declines, and then - Rises again but not to the second peak and again declines. The first and third peaks are shoulders, and the second peak forms the head. This pattern is considered a very bearish indicator. • Double Bottom - This pattern resembles a "W" and occurs when a stock price drops to a similar price level twice within a few weeks or months. You should buy when the price passes the highest point in the handle. In a perfect double bottom, the second decline should normally go slightly lower than the first decline to create a shakeout of jittery investors. The middle point of the "W" should not go into new high ground. This is a very Bullish indicator. The belief is that, after two drops in the stock price, the jittery investors will be out and the long-term investors will still be holding on.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 37
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 38
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” EIC ANALYSIS CHAPTER: 5 INDIAN ECONOMY: AN OVERVIEW The economy has moved decisively to a higher growth phase. Till a few yearsago, there was still a debate among informed observers about whether the economy hadmoved above the 5 to 6 per cent average growth seen since the 1980s. There is now nodoubt that the economy has moved to a higher growth plane, with growth in GDP atmarket prices exceeding 8 per cent in every year since 2003-04. The projected economicgrowth of 8.7 per cent for 2007-08 is fully in line with this trend. There was acceleration in domestic investment and saving rates to drive growthand provide the resources for meeting the 9 per cent (average) growth target of theEleventh Five-Year Plan. Macroeconomic fundamentals continue to inspire confidenceand the investment limate is full of optimism. Buoyant growth of government revenuesmade it possible to maintain fiscal consolidation as mandated under the FiscalResponsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBMA). The decisive change in growthtrend also means that the economy was, perhaps, not fully prepared for the different set ofBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 39
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”challenges that accompany fast growth. Inflation flared up in the last half of 2006-07 andwas successfully contained during the current year, despite a global hardening ofcommodity prices and an upsurge in capital inflows. An appreciation of the rupee, aslowdown in the consumer goods segment of industry and infrastructure (both physicaland social) constraints, remained of concern. Raising growth to double digit will therefore require additional reforms. Percapita income and consumption 1.2 Growth is of interest not for its own sake but for theimprovement in public welfare that it brings about. Economic growth, and in particularthe growth in per capita income, is a broad quantitative indicator of the progress made inimproving public welfare. Per capita consumption is another quantitative indicator that isuseful for judging welfare improvement. It is therefore appropriate to start by looking atthe changes in real (i.e. at constant prices) per capita income and consumption 1.3. The pace of economic improvement has moved up considerably during the lastfive years (including 2007-08). The rate of growth of per capita income as measured byper capita GDP at market prices (constant 1999-2000 prices) grew by an annual averagerate of 3.1 per cent during the 12- year period, 1980-81 to 1991-92. It acceleratedmarginally to 3.7 per cent per annum during the next 11 years, 1992-93 to 2002-03. Sincethen there has been a sharp acceleration in the growth of per capita income, almostdoubling to an average of 7.2 per cent per annum (2003-04 to 2007-08). This means thataverage income would now double in a decade, well within one generation, instead ofafter a generation (two decades). The growth rate of per capita income in 2007-08 isprojected to be 7.2 per cent, the same as the average of the five years to the current year.1.4 Per capita private final consumption expenditure has increased in line with per capitaincome. The growth of per capita consumption accelerated from an average of 2.2 percent per year during the 12 years from 1980-81 to 1991-92 to 2.6 per cent per year duringthe next 11 years following the reforms of the 1990s. The growth rate has almost doubledto 5.1 per cent per year during the subsequent five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, withthe current year’s growth expected to be 5.3 per cent, marginally higher than the five yearaverage. The average growth of consumption is slower than the average growth ofincome, primarily because of rising saving rates, though rising tax collection rates canalso widen the gap1. The Gross Domestic Product increased by 7.5 per cent, 9.4 per cent and 9.6 percent in first three years, of the UPA Government resulting in an unprecedented average growth rate of 8.8 per cent. The drivers of growth continue to be services and manufacturing which are estimated to grow at 10.7 per cent and 9.4 per cent respectively.2. Growth rate in agriculture for 2007-08 is estimated at 2.6 per cent.3. Food grain production in 2007-08, estimated at 219.32 million tonnes-an all time record. Rice production at 94.08 million tonnes, maize at 16.78 million tonnes, soya bean at 9.45 million tonnes, cotton at 23.38 million bales each, an all time record.4. Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana launched with an outlay of Rs. 25,000 crore, National Food Security Mission with an outlay of Rs. 4,882 crore under National Policy for Farmers in the Eleventh Five Year Plan.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 40
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”CAPITAL AND COMMODITY MARKETS: The capital and commodity markets remained buoyant during 2007. Relativelystable macroeconomic conditions as reflected in moderate rate of inflation, growth-conducive interest rate situation, improved fiscal conditions and larger investorparticipation augured well for capital and commodity markets as measured in terms ofvolume and value of transactions.Capital Markets: The Indian capital market attained further depth and width in business transactedduring 2007. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex, which had been witnessing anupswing since the latter part of 2003, scaled a high of 20,000 mark at the close ofcalendar year 2007. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Index rose in tandem to closeabove the 6,100 mark at the end of 2007. Both the indices more than tripled between2003 and 2007, giving handsome yearly returns. Alongside the growth of business in theIndian capital market, the regulatory and oversight norms have improved over the years,ensuring a sound and stable market.1. Measures to expand the market for corporate bonds: Exchange-traded currency and interest rate futures to be launched and transparent credit derivatives market to be developed with appropriate safeguards; Tradability of domestic convertible bonds to be enhanced through the mechanism of enabling investors to separate the embedded equity option from the convertible bond, and trade it separately; Development of a market-based system for classifying financial instruments based on their complexity and implicit risks to be encouraged.2. Permanent Account Number (PAN): Requirement of PAN extended to all transactions in the financial market subject to suitable threshold exemption limits.3. National market for securities: Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers to be requested to work with the Central Government to create pan Indian market for securities that will expand the market base and enhance the revenues of the State Governments.Primary Market: The primary capital market grew in 2006 and 2007 after the set back of 2005. Theamounts raised and the number of new issues which entered the market increased in2007. The total amount of capital raised through different market instruments during2007 was 31.5 per cent higher than during 2006, which itself had seen a rebound of 30.6percent over the lows of 2005.Secondary Market:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 41
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” In the secondary market segment, the market activity expanded further during2007-08 with BSE and NSE indices scaling new peaks of 21,000 and 6,300, respectively,in January 2008. Although the indices showed some intermittent fluctuations, reflectingchange in the market sentiments, the indices maintained their northbound trend during theyear. This could be attributed to the larger inflows from Foreign Institutional Investors(FIIs) and wider participation of domestic investors, particularly the institutionalinvestors. During 2007, on a point-to-point basis, Sensex and Nifty Indices rose by 47.1and 54.8 per cent, respectively. The buoyant conditions in the Indian bourses were aidedby, among other things, India posting a relatively higher GDP growth amongst theemerging economies, continued uptrend in the profitability of Indian corporates,persistence of difference in domestic and international levels of interest rates, impressivereturns on equities and a strong Indian rupee on the back of larger capital inflows.Budget Estimates:1. Plan Expenditure estimated at Rs.243,386 crore.2. Non-Plan Expenditure estimated at Rs.507,499 crore.3. Revenue deficit for 2007-08 to be 1.4 per cent (against a BE of 1.5 per cent) and the fiscal deficit to be 3.1 per cent (against a BE of 3.3 per cent); Revenue receipts of Central Government for 2008-09 projected at Rs.602, 935 crore and revenue expenditure at Rs.658,119 crore; Revenue deficit for 2008-09 estimated at Rs.55,184 crore, which amounts to 1.0 per cent of GDP; Fiscal deficit for 2008-09 estimated at Rs.133,287 crore which is 2.5 per cent of GDP; elimination of Revenue Deficit may need one more year; because of the conscious shift in expenditure in favour of health, education and the social sector.4. Thirteenth Finance Commission to be requested to revisit the roadmap for fiscal adjustment and suggest a suitably revised roadmap, after the obligations on account of the Sixth Central Pay Commission becomes clear.Stock markets: Stock markets are an important instrument of financial intermediation. They sawincreased activity in 2007-08. Primary market issue of debt and equity increased alongwith private placement. The secondary market too showed a rising trend, notwithstandingintermittent ups and downs in the stock prices responding mainly to global developments.The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex rose from 13,072 at end-March 2007 to18,048 as on February 18, 2008, while the National Stock Exchange (NSE) index Nifty50 rose from 3,822 to 5,277 during the same period. Both the indices gave a return ofaround 38 per cent during this period. The higher net mobilization of resources by mutualfunds showed that investors were realizing the importance of using intermediaries inrisky markets. All the other indicators of capital market such as market capitalization,turnover and price-earning ratio remained strong. The commodity market also showedsigns of expansion in terms of turnover and number of transactions during the year.Industry and infrastructure:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 42
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The industrial sector witnessed a slowdown in the first nine months of the currentfinancial year. The growth of 9 per cent during April-December 2007, when viewedagainst the back drop of the robust growth witnessed in the preceding four years, suggeststhat there is a certain degree of moderation in the momentum of the industrial sector. Theconsumer durable goods sector in particular has shown a distinct slowdown. This islinked to the hardening of interest rates and therefore to the conditions prevailing in thedomestic credit sector. In contrast, the capital goods industry has sustained strong growthperformance during 2007-08 (April-December). At the product group level, the moderation in growth has been selective.Industries like chemicals, food products, leather, jute textiles, wood products andmiscellaneous manufacturing products witnessed acceleration in growth, while basicmetals, machinery and equipments, rubber, plastic and petroleum products and beveragesand tobacco recorded lower but strong growth during April-December 2007. Otherindustries including textiles (except jute textiles), automotives, paper, non-metallicmineral products and metal products slowed down visibly during the period. Theslowdown in the case of less import-intensive sectors like textiles is coincident with thedecline in the growth of exports arising from the sharp appreciation in the rupee vis-a-visthe dollar. Within automobiles, while passenger cars, scooters and mopeds witnessedbuoyant growth, the production of motor cycles and three wheelers slackened. In anutshell, the industrial sector has produced mixed results in the current fiscal. CHAPTER 6 OVERVIEW OF AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY IN INDIA The global automotive industry is a highly diversified sector that comprises ofmanufacturers, suppliers, dealers, retailers, original equipment manufacturers,aftermarket parts manufacturers, automotive engineers, motor mechanics, autoelectricians, spray painters or body repairers, fuel producers, environmental and transportsafety groups, and trade unions. United States, Japan, China, Germany and South Koreaare the top five automobile manufacturing nations throughout the world. The UnitedStates of America is the world’s largest producer and consumer of motor vehicles andautomobiles accounting for 6.6 million direct and spin-off jobs and represents nearly 10%of the S10 trillion US economy. The automobile is one of the important industries in theworld, which provides employment to 25 million people in the world.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 43
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The Indian automobile industry is going through a technological change whereeach firm is engaged in changing its processes and technologies to sustain thecompetitive advantage and provide customers with the optimized products and services.Starting from the two wheelers, trucks, and tractors to the multi utility vehicles,commercial vehicles and the luxury vehicles, the Indian automobile industry has achievedtremendous amount of success in the recent years. As per Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) the market share ofeach segment of the industry is as follows:The market shares of the segments of the automobile industry The automobile industry had a growth of 15.4 % during April-January 2007, withthe average annual growth of 10-15% over the last decade or so. With the incrementalinvestment of $35-40 billion, the growth is expected to double in the next 10 years.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 44
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Consistent growth and dedication have made the Indian automobile industry thesecond- largest tractor and two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. It is also the fifth-largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the world. The Indian automobile market isamong the largest in Asia. The key players like Hindustan Motors, Maruti Udyog, Fiat India Private Ltd,Tata Motors, Bajaj Motors, Hero Motors, Ashok Leyland, Mahindra & Mahindra havebeen dominating the vehicle industry. A few of the foreign players like Toyota KirloskarMotor Ltd., Skoda India Private Ltd., Honda Siel Cars India Ltd. have also entered themarket and have catered to the customers’ needs to a large extent. Not only the Indian companies but also the international car manufacturingcompanies are focusing on compact cars to be delivered in the Indian market at a muchsmaller price. Moreover, the automobile companies are coming up with financialschemes such as easy EMI repayment systems to boost sales. There have been exhibitions like Auto-expo at Pragati Maidan, New Delhi toshare the technological advancements. Besides, there are many new projects coming upin the automobile industry leading to the growth of the sector. The Government of India has liberalized the foreign exchange and equityregulations and has also reduced the tariff on imports, contributing significantly to thegrowth of the sector. Having firmly established its presence in the domestic markets, theIndian automobile sector is now penetrating the international arena. Vehicle exports fromIndia are at their highest levels. The leaders of the Indian automobile sector, such as TataMotors, Maruti and Mahindra and Mahindra are leading the exports to Europe, MiddleEast and African and Asian markets. The Ministry of Heavy Industries has released the Automotive Plan 2006-2016,with the motive of making India the most popular manufacturing hub for automobiles andits components in Asia. The plan focuses on the removal of all the bottlenecks that areinhibiting its growth in the domestic as well as international arena.Growth in the Sector: At present the industry is enjoying a growth rate of 14-17% per annum, withdomestic sales growth at 12.8%. The growth rate is predicted to double by 2015. As it is seen, the total sales of passenger vehicles - cars, utility vehicles and multi-utility vehicles - in the year 2005 reached the mark of 1.06 million. The current growthrate indicates that by 2012 India will overtake Germany and Japan in sales volumes. Financing schemes have become an important factor in the growth of automobilesales. More and more financial schemes are coming up with easy installment plans to lurethe customers. Apart from domestic production, the industry is consistently focusing on theBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 45
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”automobile exports. The auto component segment is contributing a lot in the exportarena. The liberalized policies of the government are now making the companies go formore and more exports. The automobile exports are increasing year by year. According to the Society ofIndian Automobile Manufactures (SIAM) automobile exports in the last five years are asfollows: SWOT ANALYSIS OF INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY:STRENGTHS: • Globally cost competitive • Adheres to strict quality controls • Has access to latest technology • Provides support to critical infrastructure and metal industriesWEAKNESSES: • Industry has low level of research and development capability • Industry is exposed to cyclical downturns in the automotive industry • Most component companies are dependent on global majors for technologyOPPORTUNITIES: • May serve as sourcing hub for global automobile majorsBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 46
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” • Significant export opportunities may be realised through diversification of export basket • Implementation of Value-Added-Tax (VAT) in FY2004 will negate the cascading impact of pricesTHREATS: • The presence of a large counterfeit components market poses a significant threat • Pressure on prices from OEMs continues • Imports pose price based competition in the replacement market CHAPTER: 7 BUDGET IMPACT ON THESE SECTORSBudget 2008-09: Automobile Industry: The Budget 2008 has finally brought welcome relief to the auto sector, which wasotherwise spinning under a slowdown caused by firm interest rates. Mr. P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister on Friday, has announced a surprise cut inexcise duty for small cars (4,000 mm in length and engines with 1.2 litres capacity, ifpetrol or 1.5 litres capacity, if diesel) from 16% to 12%. With this move, small cars will cost Rs. 7000 to 16000 less. Maruti Suzuki, amajor listed player in the passenger car market, will be the main beneficiary.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 47
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” The company has announced a reduction in prices of some of its modelsfollowing Finance Minister P. Chidambarams proposal. The models are Maruti 800,Omni, Zen, WagonR, Swift Diesel and Alto. Commercial vehicles, too, stand to beneficiated with the budget proposal. Theexcise duty on buses has been reduced to 12% while on trucks it was reduced to 14%. Itis anticipated that the reduction will bring down prices by Rs 20,000-Rs 40,000. Excise duties on hybrid cars have also been reduced by 14% to 24% and on twoand three-wheelers to 16% from 24%. The Players across all segments, be it the two-wheeler, car or commercial vehiclemakers, stand to benefit from the excise duty cuts announced. It is expected that dutyreduction will provide cheer to small carmakers, two wheeler makers and bus makers. However, the budget failed to excite the industry captains, as corporate tax,dividend distribution tax and surcharge were left unchanged, contrary to marketexpectations. In order to encourage clean fuel technology, Mr. Chidambaram also reducedexcise duty by 10% on hybrid cars, which are yet to be launched in the Indian market,from 24%.Budget 2008: Impact on Auto SectorProposal Impact• Excise duty on small cars reduced to Positive: Will be passed on to customers 12% from 16% and help demand growth.• Excise duty on two & three-wheelers Gainers: Maruti, Tata Motors, Hero reduced to 12% from 16% Honda, Bajaj Auto, Ashok Leyland• Excise duty on buses and other transport vehicles reduced to 12% from 16%• Excise duty on hybrid cars reduced to 14% from 24%• Excise duty on electric cars down to zero from 8%• Excise duty on specified electric car parts withdrawn from 16%Budget Measures:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 48
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”• Reduction in excise duties from 16% to 12% on manufacturing of 2&3 wheelers, buses and small cars.• Agricultural credit outlay increased to Rs 2,80,000 crore.• 10% increase in defence sector allocation to Rs 1,05,600 crore.• Dividend tax paid by parent company allowed to be set off against the same paid by its subsidiary.• Higher allocation towards road development programme such as the NHDPBudget Impact:• Excise duty reductions will help lower prices and stimulate demand for 2&3 wheelers and small cars.• Increased demand for new buses from STUs (State Transport Undertakings) as well as private players.• Higher defence allocation will spur investment in new vehicles.• Higher agricultural credit outlay will help boost demand for tractors.• Increased thrust on road infrastructure is a positive for all the automobile manufacturers especially passenger vehicles and CVs.Company Impact:• 2&3 wheeler makers like Hero Honda, Bajaj and TVS Motors to benefit from reduction in excise duties.• Small car players like Tata Motors and Maruti will reap the benefit from small cars excise duty reductions.• Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors, the leading bus manufacturers will benefit from excise duty reductions on buses.• Suppliers to the defence sector like M&M and Ashok Leyland to benefit from higher defence sector allocation.• Increased agriculture credit outlay will benefit two-wheeler makers as well as tractor manufacturers like M&M and Punjab Tractors.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 49
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”Industry Wish list:• Excise duty of 16% which is applicable currently only on the small cars of certain engine and length specifications should be made applicable to vehicles across all the segments.• The weighted deduction of 150% of the expenses incurred on scientific research should be extended for a further period of at least 10 years even after 2012. Small cars, which attract 16% excise duty, should be defined on the basis of the length of 4,000 mm and the criteria based on engine capacity should be removed.• Definition of capital goods should be amended to treat motor vehicle as capital goods for service providers such as Architect, Chartered Accountant, Cost Accountant, Company Secretary and the like.• No interest shall be charged on differential excise duty paid on finalization of prices. Alternatively this exemption from interest can be given for modvatable inputs or in the situation where gap between provisionally assessed price and finally assessed price is upto 20%.• An appropriate procedure/form etc. should be introduced for exempting goods from levy of CST, which is to be used in manufacture of products to be exported.Budget over the years Budget 2005-06 Budget 2006-07 Budget 2007-08Custom duty on second Agricultural lending target Customs duty on new andhand motorcars andset at Rs 1,750 bn for FY07, second hand motor cars/twomotorcycles reduced to an increase of 32.5%. One wheelers will continue at100% as compared to 105% time grant to farmers who 60% and 100% respectivelyearlier. Custom duty on newhave availed loans fromcars maintained at 60%. scheduled commercial Secondary and higher banks, RRBs and PSCs for education cess @ 1% of theExcise duty on tractors of Kharif and Rabi 2005-06 of aggregate of duties of exciseengine capacity more than a principle amount up to Rs has been imposed onBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 50
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 0.1 m and interest rate of up1800 cc for semi trailers to to 2%. Short-term credit to excisable goods includingattract @ 16%. farmers at 7% for loans up automobiles. This would be to Rs 0.3 m and 0.6 m in addition to existingIntroduction of new income hectors to be brought under education cess of 2%tax brackets. irrigation in FY07. imposed in budget 2004Peak customs duty reduced Excise duty on cars having A weighted deduction offrom 20% to 15%. engine capacity up to 1,200 150% for expenditure cc (petrol based engines) relating to in-house researchExcise duty on tyres, tubes and 1,500 cc (diesel based and development to beand flaps reduced from 24% engines) and length of the extended to five more yearsto 16%. Customs duty on car up to 4,000 mm reducedlead cut to 5%. from 24% to 16%. Hike in the dividend distribution tax from the Budget support for NHDP current 12.5% to 15% enhanced from Rs 93 bn to Rs 99 bn in 2006-07. Farm credit outlay to be Around 1,000 kms of increased by Rs 500 bn and access-controlled 5 m new farmers to be expressways (totaling six) added to the banking system to be developed on BOT basis. Custom duty on alloy steel and non-ferrous (primary and secondary) metals reduced from 10% to 7.5%. Peak customs duty reduced from 15% to 12.5%. Key Positives Key NegativesRising middle class: Expansion of Competition from imports: With Indiapopulation between the age group of 25 to coming under the WTO purview and the50 years, increasing affluence of the Indian increasing free trade agreements (FTAs),middle class and heightened competition competition is expected to rise multifold.amongst automobile manufacturers, Indian companies also have to contend withresulting in improved quality offerings, imports in the future. Already a number ofwill continue to be the key drivers for the global auto companies are introducingindustry in terms of both market size and vehicles through the completely knockedproduction capacities. down (CKD) route.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 51
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”The Nano effect: Penetration of cars in Taxation anomalies: Indian automobileIndia at around 7 per thousand is even industry is amongst the highly taxedbelow countries like Pakistan and Sri industries as not only the final productLanka. However, the launch of Tatas small bears heavy taxes but the cascading effectcar Nano, touted to be the cheapest in the of duties on some key raw materials andworld is likely to change that. The price components also hurts profit margins ofwill make cars affordable to thousands of auto companies. Also, multiple tax rulesfamilies, thus greatly pushing up the that exist in different states are eroding thedensity in the country and giving a big comparative advantage of a large domesticboost to volumes. market thus making the uniform implementation of VAT (Value AddedIncreasing exports: The Indian auto Tax) necessary.industry has emerged as an export hub, onaccount of its low cost technical manpowerand increasing focus on quality. To give aperspective, in the last five years (FY02-FY07), volume exports of Indianautomobiles have increased by 41%CAGR, led by motorcycles (CAGR of57%). This development has led todomestic players increasing their share ofexports in the overall pie.Infrastructure thrust: Improvement inroad infrastructure has led to increasedmovement of goods through roadways.Around 65% of all the goods movement inthe country takes place by roads as opposedto 55% a decade ago. Also, owing to thefact that an estimated 45% of CVs(commercial vehicles) plying on the roadsare more than 10 years old, demand forHCVs (heavy commercial vehicles) isexpected to grow by a steady rate in thelong term.Low interest rate regime: Close to 80%of the new vehicles being purchased in thecountry are financed, thus underlying theimportance of a low interest rate regime tothe fortunes of the industry. Though theinterest rates have risen significantly inrecent times, we believe it is likely to haveonly a small impact over the medium termas there has been a substantial rise inBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 52
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”income levels.Regulation led benefits: Implementationof pollution norms like restriction on theage of the vehicle plying on the road andoverloading of commercial vehicles wouldseemingly aid higher volume growth of thissegment. CHAPTER: 8 COMPANY ANALYSISMARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD. Maruti Suzuki India Limited is a publicly listed automaker in India. It is aleading four-wheeler automobile manufacturer in South Asia. Suzuki Motor Corporationof Japan holds a majority stake in the company. It was the first company in India to mass-produce and sell more than a million cars. It is largely credited for having brought in anautomobile revolution to India. It is the market leader in India. On 17 September, 2007,Maruti Udyog was renamed to Maruti Suzuki India Limited. The companysheadquarters remain in Gurgaon, near Delhi.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 53
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Maruti Suzuki is one of Indias leading automobile manufacturers and the marketleader in the car segment, both in terms of volume of vehicles sold and revenue earned.Until recently, 18.28% of the company was owned by the Indian government, and 54.2%by Suzuki of Japan. The Indian government held an initial public offering of 25% of thecompany in June 2003. As of May 10, 2007, Govt. of India sold its complete share toIndian financial institutions. With this, Govt. of India no longer has stake in MarutiUdyog. Maruti Udyog Limited (MUL) was established in February 1981, though theactual production commenced in 1983. Through 2004, Maruti has produced over 5Million vehicles. Marutis are sold in India and various several other countries,depending upon export orders. Cars similar to Marutis (but not manufactured by MarutiUdyog) are sold by Suzuki in Pakistan and other South Asian countries. The company annually exports more than 30,000 cars and has an extremely largedomestic market in India selling over 500,000 cars annually. Maruti 800, till 2004, wasthe Indias largest selling compact car ever since it was launched in 1983. More than amillion units of this car have been sold worldwide so far. Currently, Maruti Alto tops thesales charts. Due to the large number of Maruti 800s sold in the Indian market, the term"Maruti" is commonly used to refer to this compact car model. Till recently the term"Maruti", in popular Indian culture, was associated to the Maruti 800 model. Maruti Suzuki India Limited, a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corporation of Japan,has been the leader of the Indian car market for over two decades. It’s manufacturing facilities are located at two facilities Gurgaon and Manesarsouth of New Delhi. Maruti’s Gurgaon facility has an installed capacity of 350,000 unitsper annum. The Manesar facilities, launched in February 2007 comprise a vehicleassembly plant with a capacity of 100,000 units per year and a Diesel Engine plant withan annual capacity of 100,000 engines and transmissions. Manesar and Gurgaon facilitieshave a combined capability to produce over 700,000 units annually. More than half the cars sold in India are Maruti cars. The company is a subsidiaryof Suzuki Motor Corporation, Japan, which owns 54.2 per cent of Maruti. The rest isowned by the public and financial institutions. It is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchangeand National Stock Exchange in India. During 2006-07, Maruti Suzuki sold about 675,000 cars, of which 39,000 wereexported. In all, over six million Maruti cars are on Indian roads since the first car wasrolled out on December 14, 1983. Maruti Suzuki offers 10 models, ranging from the people’s car, Maruti 800, forless than Rs 200,000 ($ 5000) ex-showroom to the premium sedan SX 4 and luxury SUV,Grand Vitara.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 54
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Suzuki Motor Corporation, the parent company, is a global leader in mini andcompact cars for three decades. Suzuki’s technical superiority lies in its ability to packpower and performance into a compact, lightweight engine that is clean and fuel efficient. Maruti is clearly an “employer of choice” for automotive engineers and youngmanagers from across the country. Nearly 75,000 people are employed directly by Marutiand its partners. The company vouches for customer satisfaction. For its sincere efforts it has beenrated (by customers)first in customer satisfaction among all car makers in India for sevenyears in a row in annual survey by J D Power Asia Pacific. Maruti Suzuki was born as a government company, with Suzuki as a minorpartner, to make a people’s car for middle class India. Over the years, the product rangehas widened, ownership has changed hands and the customer has evolved. What remainsunchanged, then and now, is Maruti’s mission to motorise India.FINANCIAL SUMMARY: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd has announced the following Audited results for thequarter ended December 31, 2007: The Company has posted profit after tax of Rs 467.04crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 376.41 crores for thequarter ended December 31, 2006 i.e., 24.08% increase in profit after tax in the year2007. Total Income has increased from Rs 4451.47 crores for the quarter endedDecember 31, 2006 to Rs 5651.17 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. Latest Quarterly Results Rs. cr year 2007/12 2006/12 var %Sales Income 5,480.50 4,323.04 26.77Other Income 170.67 128.43 32.89Expenditure 4,867.25 3,815.88 27.55Interest 14.36 15.74 -8.77Gross Profit 769.56 619.85 24.15Depreciation 86.73 75.86 14.33Tax 215.79 167.58 28.77PAT 467.04 376.41 24.08Equity 144.46 144.46 0.00Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 55
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”OPM (%) 11.19 11.73 -0.54GPM (%) 10.93 11.37 -0.44NPM (%) 8.52 8.70 -0.18 Balance Sheet Rs. cr Year 2007/03 2006/03Source of FundsEquity Capital 144.50 144.50Prefrential Capital 0.00 0.00Reserves and Surplus 6,709.40 5,308.10Secured Loans 63.50 71.70Unsecured Loans 567.30 0.00Total 7,484.70 5,524.30Application of FundsGross Block 6,146.80 4,954.60Accumulated Deprecation 3,487.10 3,259.40Net Block 2,659.70 1,695.20NetCurrentAssets 1,176.90 1,685.90Total 7,484.70 5,524.30 Fundamentals of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Particulars 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Return on Equity 0.0473 0.1510 0.1949 0.2181 0.2279Book Value 107.23 124.30 151.56 188.73 237.23Debt Equity 0.14 0.08 0.07 0.01 0.09P/E Ratio 14.58DPS 1.50 1.50 2.00 3.50 4.50EPS 5.07 18.76 29.55 41.16 54.07RONW 3.93 17.10 19.03 23.24 22.63Current Ratio 1.57 1.17 1.68 1.77 1.42Quick Ratio 1.20 0.85 1.25 1.31 1.13Interest Coverage Ratio 11.60 32.32 49.70 104.61 68.23Retention Ratio 16.1755 5.2187 4.1530 3.7969 3.7101Bonus Adjustment 1 1 1 1 1Adjusted EPS 5.07 18.76 29.55 41.16 54.07Price Chart:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 56
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”TATA MOTORS Tata Motors Limited formerly known as TELCO (TATA Engineering andLocomotive Company), (NYSE: TTM) - is Indias largest passenger automobile andcommercial vehicle manufacturing company. It is a part of the Tata Group, and has itsheadquarters in Mumbai, Maharashtra. One of the worlds largest manufacturers ofcommercial vehicles and known for its hatchback passenger vehicle Tata Indica, TataMotors has its manufacturing base in Jamshedpur, Lucknow, Pune and Singur. The OICAranked it as the worlds 21st largest vehicle manufacturer, based on figures for2006. Tata Motors was established in 1945, when the company began making trains.Tata Motors was first listed on the NYSE in 2004. Tata Motors gained Rs. 320 billionduring 2001-2006 which was among the top 10 corporate profits in India. In 2004 it alsobought Daewoos truck manufacturing unit, now known as Tata Daewoo CommercialVehicle, in South Korea. In March 2005, it acquired a 21% stake in Hispano CarroceraSA, giving it controlling rights in the company. On 10 January 2008, Tata Motorslaunched their much awaited Tata Nano, noted for its Rs 100,000 price-tag, at Auto Expo2008 in Pragati Maidan, Delhi. Tata Motors Limited is Indias largest automobile company, with revenues of Rs.32,426 crores (USD 7.2 billion) in 2006-07. It is the leader by far in commercialvehicles in each segment, and the second largest in the passenger vehicles market withwinning products in the compact, midsize car and utility vehicle segments. TheBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 57
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”company is the worlds fifth largest medium and heavy commercial vehiclemanufacturer, and the worlds second largest medium and heavy bus manufacturer. The companys 22,000 employees are guided by the vision to be "best in themanner in which we operate, best in the products we deliver, and best in our valuesystem and ethics." Tata Motors helps its employees realise their potential throughinnovative HR practices. The companys goal is to empower and provide employeeswith dynamic career paths in congruence with corporate objectives. All-round potentialdevelopment and performance improvement is ensured by regular in-house and externaltraining. The company has won several awards recognizing its training programmes. Tata Motors, the first company from Indias engineering sector to be listed in theNew York Stock Exchange (September 2004), has also emerged as an internationalautomobile company. In 2004, it acquired the Daewoo Commercial Vehicles Company,Koreas second largest truck maker. The rechristened Tata Daewoo CommercialVehicles Company has launched several new products in the Korean market, while alsoexporting these products to several international markets. The Tata Group is one of Indias largest and most respected businessconglomerates, with revenues in 2006-07 of $28.8 billion, the equivalent of about 3.2 percent of the countrys GDP, and the international revenues of the Group in 2006-07 wereUS$ 10.8 billion, contributing to 38% of the total Group revenues. Tata companiestogether employ over 300,000 people.FINANCIAL SUMMARY: The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 499.05 crores for the quarter endedDecember 31, 2007 as compared to Rs 513.17 crores for the quarter ended December 31,2006. Total Revenues has increased from Rs 8061.73 crores for the quarter endedDecember 31, 2005 to Rs 8456.18 crores for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. Latest Quarterly Results Rs. cr Year 2007/12 2006/12 var %Sales Income 8,364.37 8,047.41 3.94Other Income 91.81 14.32 541.13Expenditure 7,531.80 7,123.86 5.73Interest 91.77 85.17 7.75Gross Profit 832.61 852.70 -2.36Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 58
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”Depreciation 167.51 143.50 16.73Tax 166.05 195.57 -15.09PAT 499.05 513.17 -2.75Equity 385.54 385.32 0.06OPM (%) 9.95 11.48 -1.53GPM (%) 8.86 10.42 -1.56NPM (%) 5.96 6.37 -0.41 Balance Sheet Rs. cr Year 2007/03 2006/03Source of FundsEquity Capital 385.41 382.87Prefrential Capital 0.00 0.00Reserves and Surplus 6,458.39 5,127.81Secured Loans 2,022.04 822.76Unsecured Loans 1,987.10 2,114.08Total 10,852.94 8,447.52Application of FundsGross Block 8,775.80 7,971.55Accumulated Deprecation 4,894.54 4,401.51Net Block 3,855.31 3,543.65NetCurrentAssets 1,997.22 1,923.41Total 10,852.94 8,447.52 Fundamentals of Tata Motors Particulars 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Return on Equity 0.1156 0.2257 0.3009 0.2774 0.2796Book Value 81.22 101.71 113.65 143.94 177.59Debt Equity 0.56 0.35 0.60 0.53 0.58P/E Ratio 12.67DPS 4.00 8.00 12.50 13.00 15.00EPS 9.38 22.96 34.19 39.94 49.65RONW 12.32 22.98 30.12 24.17 24.67Current Ratio 0.84 0,72 0.99 1.24 1.24Quick Ratio 0.52 0.47 0.76 0.96 0.91Interest Coverage Ratio 3.82 8.69 10.24 8.08 7.62Retention Ratio 0.5192 0.7599 0.8776 0.9986 1.0525Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 59
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”Bonus Adjustment 1 1 1 1 1Adjusted EPS 9.38 22.96 34.19 39.94 49.65Price Chart:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 60
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” TECHNICAL ANALYSISBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 61
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” CHAPTER: 9 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS [By Using RSI Method]Company: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.Sector: Automobile Sector Relative Strength Index Closing Dates Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 2-Apr-07 749.25 - - 3-Apr-07 756.45 7.2 - 4-Apr-07 745.95 - 10.5 5-Apr-07 755.9 9.95 - 9-Apr-07 789.45 33.55 - 10-Apr-07 786.15 - 3.3 11-Apr-07 781.95 - 4.2 12-Apr-07 758.95 - 23 13-Apr-07 771.95 13 - 16-Apr-07 778 6.05 - 17-Apr-07 762.1 - 15.9 18-Apr-07 764.25 2.15 - 19-Apr-07 771.9 7.65 - 0.94738 20-Apr-07 778.6 6.7 - 10.78125 11.38 6 48.64911 0.94296 23-Apr-07 766.9 - 11.7 10.78125 11.43333 6 48.53231 1.18239 24-Apr-07 796 29.1 - 13.51875 11.43333 8 54.17884 25-Apr-07 791 - 5 13.51875 10.51667 1.28546 56.24512 1.24445 26-Apr-07 797.5 6.5 - 13.0875 10.51667 3 55.44572 27-Apr-07 795.9 - 1.6 10.16429 9.242857 1.09969 52.37394Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 62
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 1 0.99368 30-Apr-07 806.1 10.2 - 10.16875 10.23333 9 49.84172 0.87024 3-May-07 814.35 8.25 - 9.955556 11.44 1 46.53095 1.21113 4-May-07 807.45 - 6.9 9.955556 8.22 8 54.77442 1.31766 7-May-07 804.95 - 2.5 9.575 7.266667 1 56.85304 1.47594 8-May-07 800.75 - 4.2 10.07857 6.828571 1 59.61132 1.69514 9-May-07 802.3 1.55 - 9.0125 5.316667 1 62.89619 1.77989 10-May-07 794.9 - 7.4 9.992857 5.614286 8 64.02746 1.60050 11-May-07 795.5 0.6 - 8.985714 5.614286 9 61.54599 1.63867 14-May-07 803.7 8.2 - 9.2 5.614286 7 62.10222 1.82744 15-May-07 806.55 2.85 - 8.40625 4.6 6 64.63239 1.20727 16-May-07 802.55 - 4 5.45 4.514286 8 54.69534 1.47744 17-May-07 816.8 14.25 - 6.55 4.433333 4 59.63581 1.37837 18-May-07 810.1 - 6.7 6.557143 4.757143 8 57.95455 1.34384 21-May-07 821 10.9 - 7.1 5.283333 9 57.33513 Closing Dates Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 1.32965 22-May-07 830.6 9.6 7.025 5.283333 3 57.07515 1.01804 23-May-07 815.2 - 15.4 6.85 6.728571 7 50.44713 1.06555 24-May-07 810.4 - 4.8 6.85 6.428571 6 51.58687 1.12558 25-May-07 810.3 - 0.1 6.85 6.085714 7 52.95417 1.24218 28-May-07 825.95 15.65 - 7.95 6.4 8 55.4007 1.39752 29-May-07 819.95 - 6 8.864286 6.342857 3 58.29028 1.18529 30-May-07 804.6 - 15.35 8.864286 7.478571 1 54.23951 31-May-07 817.1 12.5 - 10.56429 7.478571 1.41260 58.55107Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 63
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 7 1-Jun-07 811.25 - 5.85 10.95833 7.275 1.5063 60.10055 4-Jun-07 806.55 - 4.7 12.58 6.988889 1.8 64.28571 5-Jun-07 799.8 - 6.75 12.58 7.294444 1.7246 63.29737 6-Jun-07 776.6 - 23.2 12.1625 8.885 1.36888 57.78596 1.24360 7-Jun-07 760.95 - 15.65 12.1625 9.78 9 55.42896 1.14205 8-Jun-07 737.55 - 23.4 12.58333 11.01818 2 53.31579 11-Jun-07 733.35 - 4.2 14.075 10.45 1.34689 57.39042 12-Jun-07 719.65 - 13.7 14.075 10.30833 1.3654 57.72386 0.91589 13-Jun-07 721.2 1.55 - 9.9 10.80909 6 47.80509 0.79229 14-Jun-07 729.15 7.95 - 9.4125 11.88 8 44.20571 0.69339 15-Jun-07 740.1 10.95 - 8.2375 11.88 2 40.94694 0.56968 18-Jun-07 742.85 2.75 - 7.14 12.53333 1 36.29278 0.60612 19-Jun-07 751.45 8.6 - 7.383333 12.18125 3 37.73826 0.66016 20-Jun-07 767.9 16.45 - 8.041667 12.18125 8 39.76512 0.64045 21-Jun-07 759.05 - 8.85 8.041667 12.55625 1 39.04117 0.52793 22-Jun-07 761.35 2.3 - 7.221429 13.67857 7 34.55229 0.52086 25-Jun-07 753.3 - 8.05 7.221429 13.86429 6 34.24797 0.55399 26-Jun-07 757.3 4 - 6.81875 12.30833 5 35.64971 0.63726 27-Jun-07 751.3 - 6 6.81875 10.7 6 38.92258 0.94268 28-Jun-07 748.7 - 2.6 6.81875 7.233333 4 48.52483 0.93514 29-Jun-07 744.15 - 4.55 6.81875 7.291667 3 48.32423 1.49750 2-Jul-07 770.6 26.45 - 9 6.01 4 59.96003 3-Jul-07 783.5 12.9 - 10.26111 6.01 1.70734 63.06337 1.70641 4-Jul-07 791.4 7.9 - 10.25556 6.01 5 63.05075 1.75633 5-Jul-07 805.05 13.65 - 10.55556 6.01 2 63.7199 1.81594 6-Jul-07 797 - 8.05 11.53125 6.35 5 64.48794Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 64
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 2.12309 9-Jul-07 795.7 - 1.3 11.95 5.628571 6 67.9805 2.16370 10-Jul-07 813.75 18.05 - 12.17857 5.628571 6 68.3915 2.24342 11-Jul-07 806.3 - 7.45 12.17857 5.428571 1 69.16836 2.76315 12-Jul-07 828.35 22.05 - 15 5.428571 8 73.42657 2.70325 13-Jul-07 831.3 2.95 - 13.49375 4.991667 5 72.99673 16-Jul-07 827.65 - 3.65 14.85 4.8 3.09375 75.57252 3.41940 17-Jul-07 824.85 - 2.8 14.85 4.342857 8 77.37253 3.24843 18-Jul-07 820.65 - 4.2 14.85 4.571429 8 76.46193 3.01502 19-Jul-07 827.05 6.4 - 13.79375 4.575 7 75.09357 Closing Dates Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 3.03985 20-Jul-07 826.9 - 0.15 11.98571 3.942857 5 75.24664 2.68659 23-Jul-07 830.05 3.15 - 10.59286 3.942857 4 72.87469 24-Jul-07 819.55 - 10.5 11.04167 4.7625 2.31846 69.86554 1.98282 25-Jul-07 809.9 - 9.65 10.52 5.305556 7 66.47476 2.75734 26-Jul-07 839.4 29.5 - 13.68333 4.9625 7 73.38547 2.30213 27-Jul-07 830.25 - 9.15 13.68333 5.94375 8 69.71659 2.23343 30-Jul-07 845.85 15.6 - 13.275 5.94375 8 69.07317 2.56521 31-Jul-07 844.55 - 1.3 13.275 5.175 7 71.95122 1.60123 1-Aug-07 821.2 - 23.35 11.52 7.194444 6 61.55673 1.82779 2-Aug-07 832.3 11.1 - 13.15 7.194444 9 64.63681 1.83524 3-Aug-07 850.65 18.35 - 14.01667 7.6375 3 64.72965 1.33412 6-Aug-07 824.9 - 25.75 14.01667 10.50625 7 57.15742 1.40342 7-Aug-07 824.85 - 0.05 14.01667 9.9875 1 58.39264 1.49269 8-Aug-07 836.6 11.75 - 14.90833 9.9875 9 59.88285Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 65
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 1.33258 9-Aug-07 826.85 - 9.75 14.90833 11.1875 8 57.12917 1.45449 10-Aug-07 809.55 - 17.3 17.26 11.86667 4 59.25841 1.51540 13-Aug-07 832.7 23.15 - 18.24167 12.0375 3 60.24494 1.52331 14-Aug-07 823.55 - 9.15 18.24167 11.975 2 60.36955 16-Aug-07 793.45 - 30.1 15.99 13.98889 1.14305 53.33753 1.09395 17-Aug-07 778.65 - 14.8 15.99 14.61667 7 52.24352 0.95028 20-Aug-07 783.75 5.1 - 13.89 14.61667 5 48.72544 0.85331 21-Aug-07 767.5 - 16.25 13.89 16.27778 1 46.0425 1.00128 22-Aug-07 765.8 - 1.7 13.89 13.87222 2 50.03202 0.98758 23-Aug-07 775.95 10.15 - 13.7 13.87222 5 49.68769 0.92631 24-Aug-07 790.05 14.1 - 12.85 13.87222 2 48.08732 1.44836 27-Aug-07 833.45 43.4 - 17.94167 12.3875 9 59.15648 1.43533 28-Aug-07 832.5 - 0.95 17.94167 12.5 3 58.93786 1.29266 29-Aug-07 833.55 1.05 - 16.15833 12.5 7 56.38267 1.10969 30-Aug-07 836.75 3.2 - 14.30714 12.89286 5 52.59979 1.34784 31-Aug-07 867.7 30.95 - 16.3875 12.15833 1 57.40768 1.25325 3-Sep-07 881.65 13.95 - 15.2375 12.15833 6 55.61977 1.16292 4-Sep-07 893.3 11.65 - 14.83889 12.76 2 53.76625 1.39332 5-Sep-07 873.75 - 19.55 14.83889 10.65 3 58.21709 1.46111 6-Sep-07 880.65 6.9 - 14.045 9.6125 8 59.36807 7-Sep-07 873.3 - 7.35 15.03889 9.16 1.6418 62.14702 1.84974 10-Sep-07 874.6 1.3 - 13.665 7.3875 6 64.90916 1.32348 11-Sep-07 861.15 - 13.45 13.665 10.325 7 56.96123 1.63817 12-Sep-07 859.55 - 1.6 14.05556 8.58 7 62.09503Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 66
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 1.87192 13-Sep-07 891.7 32.15 - 16.06111 8.58 4 65.18014 1.11809 14-Sep-07 866.75 - 24.95 12.64375 11.30833 1 52.78768 0.90807 17-Sep-07 874.95 8.2 - 12.15 13.38 2 47.59107 0.90308 18-Sep-07 875.4 0.45 - 12.08333 13.38 9 47.45386 1.27885 19-Sep-07 923.85 48.45 - 17.11111 13.38 7 56.11836 Closing Dates Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 1.14500 20-Sep-07 910.15 13.7 15.38125 13.43333 6 53.38009 1.21293 21-Sep-07 931.4 21.25 - 16.29375 13.43333 4 54.81113 1.56374 24-Sep-07 980.75 49.35 - 21.00625 13.43333 1 60.9945 1.62389 25-Sep-07 991.15 10.4 - 19.82778 12.21 7 61.88874 1.42562 26-Sep-07 961.95 - 29.2 21.44375 15.04167 3 58.77348 1.27161 27-Sep-07 980.15 18.2 - 21.08333 16.58 2 55.97841 1.38754 28-Sep-07 998.75 18.6 - 23.00556 16.58 9 58.11604 1-Oct-07 990.15 - 8.6 23.00556 15.61 1.47377 59.57588 1.23557 3-Oct-07 1019.25 29.1 - 23.615 19.1125 9 55.26885 1.18770 4-Oct-07 1042.25 23 - 22.7 19.1125 4 54.28999 1.54159 5-Oct-07 1034.85 - 7.4 22.7 14.725 6 60.65464 1.77453 8-Oct-07 1025.25 - 9.6 24.31111 13.7 4 63.95791 2.41808 9-Oct-07 1105.05 79.8 - 33.12778 13.7 6 70.74386 2.58310 10-Oct-07 1101.05 - 4 31.2125 12.08333 3 72.09123 2.53212 11-Oct-07 1119.35 18.3 - 29.77778 11.76 4 71.68842 2.27349 12-Oct-07 1096.75 - 22.6 30.84375 13.56667 5 69.45161 2.40801 15-Oct-07 1160.7 63.95 - 32.66875 13.56667 6 70.65741 16-Oct-07 1184.7 24 - 34.36875 13.56667 2.53332 71.69803Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 67
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 3 3.27841 17-Oct-07 1174 - 10.7 34.36875 10.48333 8 76.62688 2.63198 18-Oct-07 1139.35 - 34.65 36.67857 13.93571 4 72.46684 1.98086 19-Oct-07 1076.6 - 62.75 39.69167 20.0375 9 66.45274 1.88839 22-Oct-07 1060.15 - 16.45 39.69167 21.01875 3 65.37868 23-Oct-07 1102.9 42.75 - 41.96667 21.01875 1.99663 66.62918 1.93755 24-Oct-07 1118.45 15.55 - 40.725 21.01875 6 65.95809 1.80466 25-Oct-07 1164.2 45.75 - 41.44286 22.96429 6 64.34513 1.52877 26-Oct-07 1182.2 18 - 38.5125 25.19167 9 60.45523 1.17077 29-Oct-07 1189.85 7.65 - 29.49375 25.19167 4 53.93348 0.70898 30-Oct-07 1087.4 - 102.45 29.49375 41.6 4 41.48571 0.82709 31-Oct-07 1073.85 - 13.55 31.09286 37.59286 5 45.2683 1-Nov-07 1006.55 - 67.3 31.09286 43.97857 0.707 41.4177 0.54685 2-Nov-07 1021.2 14.65 - 24.05 43.97857 7 35.35279 0.57555 5-Nov-07 994.65 - 26.55 24.05833 41.8 8 36.53043 6-Nov-07 972 - 22.65 24.05833 43.29375 0.5557 35.72025 7-Nov-07 999.35 27.35 - 24.52857 44.52857 0.55085 35.51924 0.67651 8-Nov-07 994.5 - 4.85 24.52857 36.25714 7 40.35253 0.71009 9-Nov-07 990.05 - 4.45 24.52857 34.54286 1 41.52358 0.55583 12-Nov-07 995.5 5.45 - 19.2 34.54286 1 35.72568 0.52274 13-Nov-07 1003.05 7.55 - 18.05714 34.54286 6 34.32917 0.47911 14-Nov-07 1038.25 35.2 - 16.55 34.54286 5 32.392 0.53712 15-Nov-07 1037.15 - 1.1 16.30833 30.3625 1 34.94331 0.54892 16-Nov-07 1046.95 9.8 - 16.66667 30.3625 3 35.439 0.76076 19-Nov-07 1053.8 6.85 - 15.26429 20.06429 9 43.20663 20-Nov-07 1007 - 46.8 15.26429 24.81429 0.61514 38.0859Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 68
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 1 Closing Dates Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 0.67137 21-Nov-07 954.25 - 52.75 15.26429 22.73571 9 40.16917 0.64844 22-Nov-07 965.25 11 - 14.74286 22.73571 5 39.33676 23-Nov-07 947.45 - 17.8 14.74286 21.48571 0.68617 40.69401 0.63082 26-Nov-07 951.7 4.25 - 13.43125 21.29167 2 38.68123 0.56408 27-Nov-07 937.45 - 14.25 11.44286 20.28571 5 36.06484 0.60235 28-Nov-07 967.5 30.05 - 13.76875 22.85833 1 37.59172 0.55576 29-Nov-07 990.1 22.6 - 14.75 26.54 5 35.72294 0.63363 30-Nov-07 1014.15 24.05 - 16.81667 26.54 5 38.78681 0.68031 3-Dec-07 1032.85 18.7 - 18.05556 26.54 5 40.48734 0.69385 4-Dec-07 1027.95 - 4.9 15.9125 22.93333 9 40.96321 0.54436 5-Dec-07 1034.4 6.45 - 14.86111 27.3 3 35.24839 0.53052 6-Dec-07 1040.8 6.4 - 14.48333 27.3 5 34.66294 0.50529 7-Dec-07 1041.45 0.65 - 13.79444 27.3 1 33.56766 0.57235 10-Dec-07 1045.65 4.2 - 12.835 22.425 2 36.40102 1.18317 11-Dec-07 1077.6 31.95 - 14.57273 12.31667 1 54.19508 1.44775 12-Dec-07 1073.3 - 4.3 14.93 10.3125 8 59.14628 0.99949 13-Dec-07 1037 - 36.3 14.93 14.9375 8 49.98744 1.00686 14-Dec-07 1042.35 5.35 - 15.04 14.9375 2 50.17096 0.80159 17-Dec-07 1012.8 - 29.55 15.04 18.7625 9 44.49375 0.66915 18-Dec-07 1018 5.2 - 12.555 18.7625 4 40.08941 19-Dec-07 998 - 20 11.43889 19.01 0.60173 37.56751 0.59502 20-Dec-07 993.6 - 4.4 9.8625 16.575 3 37.30496 24-Dec-07 990.25 - 3.35 8.6 14.68571 0.58560 36.93252Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 69
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 3 0.48301 26-Dec-07 993.1 2.85 - 7.88125 16.31667 8 32.56995 0.44969 27-Dec-07 995.2 2.1 - 7.3375 16.31667 4 31.0199 28-Dec-07 986.6 - 8.6 7.471429 15.21429 0.49108 32.93451 0.55915 31-Dec-07 994.5 7.9 - 8.507143 15.21429 5 35.86269 1-Jan-08 991.55 - 2.95 9.225 13.68125 0.67428 40.27285 0.35206 2-Jan-08 997.05 5.5 - 4.816667 13.68125 3 26.03897 0.29870 3-Jan-08 973.2 - 23.85 4.816667 16.125 8 23.0004 0.37870 4-Jan-08 964.15 - 9.05 4.816667 12.71875 6 27.46822 0.41497 7-Jan-08 963.75 - 0.4 4.71 11.35 8 29.32752 0.43904 8-Jan-08 939.8 - 23.95 4.71 10.72778 7 30.50957 0.41106 9-Jan-08 924.75 - 15.05 4.5875 11.16 6 29.13161 0.42813 10-Jan-08 909.2 - 15.55 4.5875 10.715 8 29.97876 0.40868 11-Jan-08 899.7 - 9.5 4.5875 11.225 6 29.01186 0.31605 14-Jan-08 863.45 - 36.25 4.5875 14.515 2 24.01518 0.40303 15-Jan-08 871.35 7.9 - 5.85 14.515 1 28.72575 0.46267 16-Jan-08 847.7 - 23.65 7.1 15.34545 8 31.63224 0.59925 17-Jan-08 864.8 17.1 - 9.6 16.02 1 37.47073 0.61111 18-Jan-08 842 - 22.8 10.16667 16.63636 1 37.93103 0.51100 21-Jan-08 803.2 - 38.8 10.16667 19.89545 4 33.81886 22-Jan-08 807.05 3.85 - 9.616667 19.89545 0.48336 32.58548 Closing Dates Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 0.61474 23-Jan-08 826.15 19.1 - 11.9875 19.5 4 38.07066 0.53671 24-Jan-08 788.75 - 37.4 11.9875 22.335 4 34.92607 0.75003 25-Jan-08 833.7 44.95 - 18.58 24.77222 4 42.85824Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 70
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 0.83015 28-Jan-08 864.7 31 - 20.65 24.875 1 45.35969 0.88984 29-Jan-08 863 - 1.7 20.65 23.20625 6 47.08565 30-Jan-08 844.9 - 18.1 20.65 23.525 0.87779 46.7459 0.72299 31-Jan-08 850.2 5.3 - 18.45714 25.52857 9 41.96168 1-Feb-08 905.75 55.55 - 23.09375 23.74167 0.97271 49.3083 1.17235 4-Feb-08 897.35 - 8.4 25.26429 21.55 7 53.96704 5-Feb-08 872.6 - 24.75 25.26429 21.70714 1.16387 53.7865 1.10764 6-Feb-08 832.25 - 40.35 26.625 24.0375 4 52.55366 1.05576 7-Feb-08 800 - 32.25 26.625 25.21875 2 51.35624 1.01564 8-Feb-08 805.75 5.75 - 23.64286 23.27857 9 50.38819 1.03866 11-Feb-08 813.35 7.6 - 24.17857 23.27857 2 50.94822 1.18742 12-Feb-08 807.7 - 5.65 25.025 21.075 6 54.28416 1.21722 13-Feb-08 817.25 9.55 - 22.81429 18.74286 6 54.89859 0.96570 14-Feb-08 829.2 11.95 - 18.1 18.74286 1 49.12757 0.86245 15-Feb-08 812.45 - 16.75 15.95 18.49375 4 46.30739 0.83672 18-Feb-08 806.2 - 6.25 15.95 19.0625 1 45.55516 0.73586 19-Feb-08 809.4 3.2 - 14.12857 19.2 3 42.39177 0.71682 20-Feb-08 769.7 - 39.7 15.6 21.7625 9 41.75309 0.37913 21-Feb-08 763.15 - 6.55 7.61 20.07222 1 27.49057 0.31930 22-Feb-08 766.35 3.2 - 6.875 21.53125 3 24.20242 0.51152 25-Feb-08 800.55 34.2 - 10.77857 21.07143 5 33.84167 0.61735 26-Feb-08 813.3 12.75 - 11.025 17.85833 9 38.1708 0.79958 27-Feb-08 832.9 19.6 - 11.97778 14.98 5 44.43162 0.78845 28-Feb-08 837.15 4.25 - 11.81111 14.98 9 44.08593 29-Feb-08 868.2 31.05 - 14.41667 14.98 0.96239 49.04184Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 71
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 4 0.77516 3-Mar-08 872.65 4.45 - 13.42 17.3125 2 43.66713 4-Mar-08 904.55 31.9 - 15.655 17.3125 0.90426 47.48616 1.04115 5-Mar-08 940.2 35.65 - 18.025 17.3125 5 51.00814 1.11179 7-Mar-08 927.85 - 12.35 18.025 16.2125 6 52.64695 10-Mar-08 895.05 - 32.8 18.025 22.85 0.78884 44.09786 0.82104 11-Mar-08 866.65 - 28.4 19.67222 23.96 4 45.08645 1.10085 12-Mar-08 857.4 - 9.25 19.67222 17.87 2 52.40026 0.98508 13-Mar-08 840.35 - 17.05 19.67222 19.97 9 49.62442 1.21290 14-Mar-08 832.7 - 7.65 21.73125 17.91667 7 54.81057 1.04489 17-Mar-08 806.55 - 26.15 19.95 19.09286 3 51.09769 1.00037 18-Mar-08 813.35 6.8 - 19.1 19.09286 4 50.00935 0.92181 19-Mar-08 822.45 9.1 - 17.6 19.09286 1 47.96574 1.08704 24-Mar-08 810.2 - 12.25 19.825 18.2375 6 52.08539 1.11080 25-Mar-08 843.85 33.65 - 20.25833 18.2375 6 52.62474 1.08613 26-Mar-08 845.6 1.75 - 19.80833 18.2375 2 52.0644 Closing Dates Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 1.02160 27-Mar-08 838.3 - 7.3 17.39 17.02222 6 50.53437 0.83441 28-Mar-08 837.8 - 0.5 12.825 15.37 8 45.48679 0.84291 31-Mar-08 827 - 10.8 12.825 15.215 8 45.73823 Average 15.662 15.04Relative Strength Index: The RSI compares the magnitude of a stocks recent gains to the magnitude of itsrecent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 72
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” RSI of Maruti Suzuki Scrip 90 80 70 60 50 RSI 40 RSI 30 20 10 0 5/2/2007 1/2/2008 2/2/2008 4/2/2007 6/2/2007 7/2/2007 8/2/2007 9/2/2007 10/2/2007 11/2/2007 12/2/2007 3/2/2008 Dates A 14 day RSI is calculated for stock it is recommended by wilder that a 14 period will be a good indicator. By using the simple formula RSI = {100- [100 / (1+RS)]}.it states that if RSI is below 30 buy & if it crosses above 70 then sell it. From 2nd April 07 to 31st March 08 the RSI is calculated, the best time to sell the stock was between 12th July 07 to 31st July 07 and 9th October 07 to 18th October 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 2nd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days. Company: Tata Motors Sector: Automobile Sector Relative Strength Index Closing Date Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 2-Apr-07 670.9 - - 3-Apr-07 681.4 10.5 - 4-Apr-07 682.8 1.4 - 5-Apr-07 686.1 3.3 - 9-Apr-07 703.7 17.6 -10-Apr-07 721.55 17.85 -11-Apr-07 722.8 1.25 -12-Apr-07 712.4 - 10.4 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 73
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”13-Apr-07 726.3 13.9 -16-Apr-07 750.25 23.95 -17-Apr-07 730.6 - 19.6518-Apr-07 722.5 - 8.119-Apr-07 713.1 - 9.4 0.9304820-Apr-07 722.9 9.8 - 11.06111 11.8875 3 48.19948 1.0574623-Apr-07 718.15 - 4.75 11.06111 10.46 8 51.39656 1.1950224-Apr-07 741.6 23.45 - 12.5 10.46 9 54.44251 1.3655125-Apr-07 759.05 17.45 - 14.28333 10.46 9 57.72599 1.4106626-Apr-07 766.6 7.55 - 14.75556 10.46 5 58.51767 1.2422727-Apr-07 749.35 - 17.25 14.4 11.59167 2 55.40237 1.0756630-Apr-07 751.75 2.4 - 12.46875 11.59167 5 51.822673-May-07 733.1 - 18.65 14.07143 12.6 1.11678 52.75844 1.240554-May-07 731.5 - 1.6 14.07143 11.34286 4 55.36818 1.365617-May-07 728.3 - 3.2 14.1 10.325 7 57.72774 1.272378-May-07 725.1 - 3.2 12.13 9.533333 8 55.99323 1.605449-May-07 723.25 - 1.85 12.13 7.555556 1 61.61878 1.5983810-May-07 714.85 - 8.4 12.13 7.588889 9 61.51462 1.4012411-May-07 716.1 1.25 - 10.31667 7.3625 5 58.35494 1.5682214-May-07 715.2 - 0.9 10.42 6.644444 7 61.06264 1.6776315-May-07 714.35 - 0.85 10.42 6.211111 9 62.65366 1.5762016-May-07 734.65 20.3 - 9.79 6.211111 8 61.18325 1.5279017-May-07 750.6 15.95 - 9.49 6.211111 7 60.44158 1.5417318-May-07 741.8 - 8.8 9.975 6.47 1 60.6567321-May-07 725.45 - 16.35 9.975 6.38 1.56348 60.99052 1.5282122-May-07 726.95 1.5 - 9.75 6.38 3 60.4463723-May-07 708 - 18.95 9.75 6.41 1.52106 60.33416 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 74
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 124-May-07 712.7 4.7 - 8.74 6.944444 1.25856 55.724 1.3029725-May-07 726.95 14.25 - 9.658333 7.4125 9 56.57798 1.1363628-May-07 732.75 5.8 - 9.107143 8.014286 4 53.19149 Closing Date Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 0.9933129-May-07 740.85 8.1 - 8.98125 9.041667 8 49.83239 0.8857330-May-07 742.1 1.25 - 8.122222 9.17 9 46.97038 1.0353831-May-07 755.7 13.6 - 9.494444 9.17 1 50.86915 0.900801-Jun-07 747.95 - 7.75 9.494444 10.54 1 47.39061 0.533694-Jun-07 710.85 - 37.1 9.494444 17.79 6 34.79801 0.547175-Jun-07 710.5 - 0.35 8.14375 14.88333 2 35.36596 0.440076-Jun-07 688 - 22.5 7.028571 15.97143 2 30.55901 0.434827-Jun-07 677.85 - 10.15 7.028571 16.16429 1 30.3049 0.401798-Jun-07 652.2 - 25.65 7.028571 17.49286 7 28.66298 0.3977111-Jun-07 653.2 1 - 6.957143 17.49286 3 28.45457 0.4216412-Jun-07 641.2 - 12 6.957143 16.5 5 29.65895 0.4155813-Jun-07 645.2 4 - 6.857143 16.5 4 29.3578 0.3799014-Jun-07 642.25 - 2.95 5.625 14.80625 7 27.5313615-Jun-07 650.4 8.15 - 6.016667 14.80625 0.40636 28.8944518-Jun-07 644.95 - 5.45 5.6 13.76667 0.40678 28.91566 0.6581119-Jun-07 663.5 18.55 - 9.06 13.76667 1 39.6904220-Jun-07 686.4 22.9 - 10.92 13.76667 0.79322 44.2344 0.6394021-Jun-07 687.5 1.1 - 9.283333 14.51875 3 39.00219 0.9029322-Jun-07 684.3 - 3.2 9.283333 10.28125 8 47.4496925-Jun-07 678.15 - 6.15 9.283333 11.00625 0.84346 45.75418 0.9481326-Jun-07 684.6 6.45 - 8.878571 9.364286 1 48.66875 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 75
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 0.9099527-Jun-07 671.7 - 12.9 8.878571 9.757143 6 47.64278 1.2442428-Jun-07 664.4 - 7.3 8.878571 7.135714 4 55.4415729-Jun-07 670.2 5.8 - 9.564286 7.135714 1.34034 57.27117 1.560272-Jul-07 682.2 12 - 9.86875 6.325 7 60.941723-Jul-07 685.85 3.65 - 9.825 6.325 1.55336 60.83591 1.493654-Jul-07 701.35 15.5 - 10.45556 7 1 59.89815 1.494445-Jul-07 709.55 8.2 - 10.46111 7 4 59.91091 1.296786-Jul-07 711.2 1.65 - 9.58 7.3875 5 56.46088 1.114729-Jul-07 716.3 5.1 - 8.235 7.3875 1 52.71243 1.1695410-Jul-07 743.25 26.95 - 8.64 7.3875 3 53.9073511-Jul-07 736.1 - 7.15 9.477778 7.34 1.29125 56.35571 1.0632812-Jul-07 739.85 3.75 - 8.905 8.375 4 51.53356 1.1592113-Jul-07 767.05 27.2 - 10.56818 9.116667 6 53.68688 1.2584516-Jul-07 759.5 - 7.55 10.98 8.725 3 55.7219 1.3431117-Jul-07 748.8 - 10.7 10.98 8.175 9 57.32185 1.4236618-Jul-07 743.35 - 5.45 10.98 7.7125 3 58.74014 1.7815219-Jul-07 776.75 33.4 - 13.74 7.7125 4 64.04848 1.7416620-Jul-07 767.6 - 9.15 13.93333 8 7 63.52584 2.2271323-Jul-07 766.6 - 1 15.21875 6.833333 4 69.01275 1.7561924-Jul-07 747.1 - 19.5 15.17857 8.642857 8 63.71814 1.6021225-Jul-07 726 - 21.1 16.34167 10.2 4 61.56986 1.6707526-Jul-07 731.85 5.85 - 17.04167 10.2 2 62.55736 Closing Date Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 1.5299227-Jul-07 699.15 - 32.7 19.43 12.7 1 60.4730830-Jul-07 707.25 8.1 - 15.66 12.7 1.23307 55.21862 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 76
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 1 1.2255631-Jul-07 699.4 - 7.85 15.66 12.77778 5 55.06759 1.267851-Aug-07 667.4 - 32 18.6375 14.7 7 55.90551 1.067752-Aug-07 651.8 - 15.6 15.78333 14.78182 3 51.63833 0.836823-Aug-07 656.35 4.55 - 12.975 15.505 7 45.558296-Aug-07 648.8 - 7.55 12.975 15.19 0.85418 46.06781 0.747287-Aug-07 657.7 8.9 - 12.16 16.27222 6 42.76838 0.352138-Aug-07 658.95 1.25 - 5.73 16.27222 4 26.04282 0.322899-Aug-07 663.55 4.6 - 5.541667 17.1625 4 24.40815 0.2868610-Aug-07 669.4 5.85 - 5.585714 19.47143 7 22.2919 0.3997213-Aug-07 692.55 23.15 - 7.78125 19.46667 2 28.55723 0.4808114-Aug-07 691.15 - 1.4 7.78125 16.18333 9 32.46979 0.4414816-Aug-07 660.5 - 30.65 8.057143 18.25 7 30.62721 0.4930017-Aug-07 641.15 - 19.35 8.057143 16.34286 7 33.02108 0.4982520-Aug-07 649.85 8.7 - 8.142857 16.34286 2 33.25554 0.4662521-Aug-07 634.15 - 15.7 8.142857 17.46429 8 31.79916 0.5433722-Aug-07 619.5 - 14.65 8.142857 14.98571 5 35.20692 0.4896423-Aug-07 620.8 1.3 - 7.2875 14.88333 2 32.8697624-Aug-07 656.6 35.8 - 11.19375 14.88333 0.7521 42.92562 0.7363227-Aug-07 675.4 18.8 - 12.03889 16.35 3 42.40705 0.7926428-Aug-07 663.05 - 12.35 12.43125 15.68333 1 44.21638 0.8711429-Aug-07 674.15 11.1 - 13.6625 15.68333 8 46.55686 0.8870830-Aug-07 680.75 6.6 - 13.9125 15.68333 8 47.00831 1.0078331-Aug-07 701.75 21 - 15.80625 15.68333 7 50.19517 3-Sep-07 702.85 1.1 - 13.05 15.68333 0.83209 45.41763 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 77
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 44-Sep-07 691.35 - 11.5 13.05 17.36667 0.75144 42.904115-Sep-07 698.85 7.5 - 12.43333 14.71 0.84523 45.80621 0.923246-Sep-07 712.05 13.2 - 12.51 13.55 7 48.0046 0.909517-Sep-07 695.15 - 16.9 12.93333 14.22 7 47.63074 0.8949410-Sep-07 702.7 7.55 - 12.395 13.85 6 47.22804 0.9130711-Sep-07 689.15 - 13.55 12.395 13.575 6 47.72815 1.1607912-Sep-07 684.75 - 4.4 13.62778 11.74 9 53.72082 0.9189813-Sep-07 695 10.25 - 10.78889 11.74 5 47.88913 0.9795614-Sep-07 693.75 - 1.25 9.7875 9.991667 6 49.48388 0.9255317-Sep-07 694.75 1 - 8.811111 9.52 7 48.06643 0.8117418-Sep-07 696.1 1.35 - 7.727778 9.52 1 44.80448 1.0183219-Sep-07 720.4 24.3 - 9.694444 9.52 4 50.4539420-Sep-07 731.25 10.85 - 8.566667 9.52 0.89986 47.36454 1.0008121-Sep-07 741 9.75 - 9.527778 9.52 7 50.02042 1.0188324-Sep-07 747.2 6.2 - 9.195 9.025 7 50.46652 1.1065225-Sep-07 740.9 - 6.3 9.383333 8.48 5 52.52846 1.2312726-Sep-07 739.9 - 1 8.90625 7.233333 9 55.18265 Closing Date Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 1.7327027-Sep-07 751.3 11.4 - 9.183333 5.3 4 63.40621 2.1111128-Sep-07 776.9 25.6 - 11.18889 5.3 1 67.85714 3.380321-Oct-07 773.3 - 3.6 11.18889 3.31 9 77.17066 3.802463-Oct-07 788.1 14.8 - 11.55 3.0375 9 79.17738 3.838684-Oct-07 799.45 11.35 - 11.66 3.0375 3 79.33322 1.490095-Oct-07 779.05 - 20.4 11.66 7.825 6 59.8409 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 78
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 1.396138-Oct-07 764.35 - 14.7 12.84444 9.2 5 58.26613 1.763889-Oct-07 796.15 31.8 - 16.22778 9.2 9 63.8191 1.5978210-Oct-07 806.7 10.55 - 14.7 9.2 6 61.50628 1.7548311-Oct-07 830.55 23.85 - 16.14444 9.2 1 63.70013 1.3888312-Oct-07 803.35 - 27.2 16.94375 12.2 2 58.13854 1.4784815-Oct-07 818.3 14.95 - 18.0375 12.2 4 59.65275 1.2190616-Oct-07 820.8 2.5 - 16.31111 13.38 7 54.9360117-Oct-07 806.95 - 13.85 16.31111 15.95 1.02264 50.55967 1.0650218-Oct-07 791.35 - 15.6 16.925 15.89167 4 51.5744 1.0812419-Oct-07 785.15 - 6.2 15.68571 14.50714 1 51.9517422-Oct-07 772.9 - 12.25 15.68571 15.74286 0.99637 49.90909 1.0680523-Oct-07 795.6 22.7 - 16.81429 15.74286 8 51.64546 1.0807924-Oct-07 774.6 - 21 17.725 16.4 3 51.94139 1.1944925-Oct-07 800.6 26 - 18.90714 15.82857 5 54.43142 1.0656826-Oct-07 804.8 4.2 - 17.06875 16.01667 7 51.58995 0.8366229-Oct-07 807.25 2.45 - 13.4 16.01667 9 45.55241 0.7127530-Oct-07 767.75 - 39.5 13.80714 19.37143 8 41.61464 0.6671231-Oct-07 757.85 - 9.9 12.13333 18.1875 5 40.016491-Nov-07 746.95 - 10.9 12.13333 16.15 0.75129 42.89923 0.678012-Nov-07 754.8 7.85 - 10.95 16.15 9 40.4059 0.790825-Nov-07 740.15 - 14.65 12.64 15.98333 4 44.15978 0.754876-Nov-07 719.45 - 20.7 12.64 16.74444 7 43.01596 0.632127-Nov-07 720.3 0.85 - 10.675 16.8875 4 38.73016 0.602898-Nov-07 707.55 - 12.75 10.675 17.70625 4 37.612869-Nov-07 694.8 - 12.75 10.675 17.76875 0.60077 37.53021 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 79
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 4 0.4877412-Nov-07 684.35 - 10.45 8.27 16.95556 6 32.78421 0.5096213-Nov-07 693.3 8.95 - 8.383333 16.45 5 33.75839 0.3915914-Nov-07 707.65 14.35 - 6.441667 16.45 1 28.13979 0.4419815-Nov-07 698.95 - 8.7 6.89 15.58889 1 30.65098 0.5627816-Nov-07 697.1 - 1.85 8 14.215 6 36.0117 0.6663419-Nov-07 703.1 6 - 7.6 11.40556 2 39.98831 0.6231820-Nov-07 708.45 5.35 - 7.225 11.59375 1 38.39256 0.5838321-Nov-07 691.3 - 17.15 7.225 12.375 8 36.86224 0.5212122-Nov-07 694.5 3.2 - 6.45 12.375 2 34.26295 0.6941323-Nov-07 714.35 19.85 - 8.364286 12.05 2 40.97271 0.8837726-Nov-07 711.75 - 2.6 8.364286 9.464286 4 46.91506 0.9916927-Nov-07 719.75 8 - 9.385714 9.464286 8 49.79159 Closing Date Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 0.9420528-Nov-07 721.25 1.5 - 8.4 8.916667 6 48.50818 1.1506829-Nov-07 718.2 - 3.05 8.4 7.3 5 53.50318 1.3568230-Nov-07 732.45 14.25 - 9.05 6.67 2 57.56997 1.269363-Dec-07 736.15 3.7 - 8.466667 6.67 5 55.93482 1.116104-Dec-07 741.3 5.15 - 7.444444 6.67 9 52.74345 1.591885-Dec-07 772.4 31.1 - 9.81 6.1625 6 61.41806 1.209926-Dec-07 775.45 3.05 - 9.195455 7.6 8 54.74966 1.229727-Dec-07 767.3 - 8.15 9.515 7.7375 5 55.15143 1.5688310-Dec-07 766.45 - 0.85 9.977778 6.36 3 61.0718211-Dec-07 775.2 8.75 - 9.855 3.6625 2.69078 72.90549 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 80
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 5 2.6753612-Dec-07 770.05 - 5.15 10.59444 3.96 5 72.79182 2.1207813-Dec-07 763.15 - 6.9 9.4375 4.45 7 67.9568 1.3354914-Dec-07 744.85 - 18.3 9.4375 7.066667 5 57.18253 0.7894717-Dec-07 701.75 - 43.1 9.642857 12.21429 4 44.11765 0.7771918-Dec-07 702.2 0.45 - 9.492857 12.21429 3 43.73149 0.7072919-Dec-07 690.7 - 11.5 9.492857 13.42143 1 41.4276820-Dec-07 710.15 19.45 - 10.23571 13.42143 0.76264 43.26691 0.9387924-Dec-07 730.4 20.25 - 12.6 13.42143 7 48.42163 1.1149526-Dec-07 752.1 21.7 - 14.96429 13.42143 5 52.71766 0.8984427-Dec-07 736.75 - 15.35 12.275 13.6625 5 47.3253 1.0889428-Dec-07 729.35 - 7.4 14.12 12.96667 6 52.12897 1.0213431-Dec-07 741.9 12.55 - 13.85833 13.56875 2 50.52791 0.961931-Jan-08 762.35 20.45 - 14.8 15.38571 1 49.02982 1.170382-Jan-08 793.55 31.2 - 18.00714 15.38571 1 53.925133-Jan-08 791.6 - 1.95 18.00714 14.92857 1.20622 54.67361 1.172014-Jan-08 781.65 - 9.95 18.00714 15.36429 3 53.95976 1.090757-Jan-08 785.4 3.75 - 16.225 14.875 6 52.17042 1.718448-Jan-08 774.9 - 10.5 16.225 9.441667 7 63.21429 2.108399-Jan-08 770.2 - 4.7 18.47857 8.764286 4 67.82905 1.8256810-Jan-08 749.2 - 21 18.47857 10.12143 8 64.61039 1.7473511-Jan-08 763.1 13.9 - 17.68571 10.12143 4 63.60134 1.4968214-Jan-08 765.6 2.5 - 15.15 10.12143 4 59.94912 1.2385315-Jan-08 769 3.4 - 12.53571 10.12143 2 55.3278716-Jan-08 749.95 - 19.05 12.53571 10.65 1.17706 54.06654 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 81
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 217-Jan-08 736.65 - 13.3 12.53571 11.49286 1.09074 52.17004 0.9753518-Jan-08 714.3 - 22.35 12.53333 12.85 7 49.37623 0.6029321-Jan-08 653.65 - 60.65 10.95 18.16111 7 37.6145 0.3542422-Jan-08 650.9 - 2.75 5.8875 16.62 2 26.15795 0.3452023-Jan-08 658.85 7.95 - 6.3 18.25 5 25.66191 0.3667524-Jan-08 658.55 - 0.3 6.3 17.17778 3 26.83389 0.9273625-Jan-08 710.45 51.9 - 15.93 17.17778 1 48.1155828-Jan-08 712.75 2.3 - 13.65833 18.0125 0.75827 43.1259 0.6097529-Jan-08 715.8 3.05 - 12.14286 19.91429 6 37.87879 Closing Date Price Gain Loss Avg.Gain Avg.Loss RS RSI 0.6193030-Jan-08 696.95 - 18.85 12.14286 19.60714 8 38.24522 0.5362431-Jan-08 699.45 2.5 - 10.51429 19.60714 8 34.906331-Feb-08 753.5 54.05 - 17.87857 19.60714 0.91184 47.69436 1.007284-Feb-08 770 16.5 - 19.75 19.60714 6 50.18149 1.030175-Feb-08 754 - 16 19.75 19.17143 9 50.74326 0.994966-Feb-08 735.95 - 18.05 19.75 19.85 2 49.873747-Feb-08 715.1 - 20.85 19.75 19.63571 1.00582 50.14509 1.707848-Feb-08 710.95 - 4.15 19.75 11.56429 4 63.07026 1.5656811-Feb-08 700.85 - 10.1 19.75 12.61429 5 61.02406 1.8239712-Feb-08 693.9 - 6.95 21.71667 11.90625 2 64.58888 1.5924113-Feb-08 714.8 20.9 - 21.6 13.56429 7 61.42596 1.2390714-Feb-08 733.15 18.35 - 16.80714 13.56429 3 55.33866 1.4117915-Feb-08 751.85 18.7 - 19.15 13.56429 6 58.53712 1.5308218-Feb-08 732.7 - 19.15 21.83333 14.2625 1 60.4871319-Feb-08 739.65 6.95 - 19.70714 13.60714 1.44829 59.15523 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 82
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 4 1.4494320-Feb-08 710.3 - 29.35 22.575 15.575 8 59.17431 1.1550621-Feb-08 708.05 - 2.25 16.28 14.09444 5 53.59769 1.1685222-Feb-08 696.05 - 12 16.225 13.885 7 53.88575 1.0945025-Feb-08 705.85 9.8 - 14.94 13.65 5 52.25603 1.2625326-Feb-08 704.15 - 1.7 14.94 11.83333 5 55.80179 1.2204727-Feb-08 707.85 3.7 - 13.06667 10.70625 1 54.9645128-Feb-08 709.8 1.95 - 11.47857 11.64286 0.98589 49.64473 0.9938129-Feb-08 700.35 - 9.45 11.47857 11.55 6 49.84491 1.015163-Mar-08 695.1 - 5.25 11.47857 11.30714 1 50.37618 0.840804-Mar-08 702.2 7.1 - 9.507143 11.30714 9 45.67605 0.636135-Mar-08 704.35 2.15 - 7.192857 11.30714 4 38.88031 0.377797-Mar-08 671.8 - 32.55 5.275 13.9625 8 27.4204 0.3743910-Mar-08 674.8 3 - 4.95 13.22143 2 27.24057 0.3238311-Mar-08 653.3 - 21.5 4.616667 14.25625 5 24.4618612-Mar-08 645.1 - 8.2 4.616667 11.6125 0.39756 28.44673 0.3228413-Mar-08 621.35 - 23.75 4.616667 14.3 4 24.40529 0.4296814-Mar-08 637.65 16.3 - 6.285714 14.62857 8 30.05464 0.3490217-Mar-08 609.4 - 28.25 5.7 16.33125 4 25.87234 0.3431518-Mar-08 619.45 10.05 - 6.321429 18.42143 6 25.5485 0.5564119-Mar-08 650.65 31.2 - 10.25 18.42143 7 35.7498824-Mar-08 663.2 12.55 - 11.76429 18.42143 0.63862 38.97302 0.6229025-Mar-08 680.1 16.9 - 12.40625 19.91667 8 38.38221 0.6439226-Mar-08 678.75 - 1.35 12.40625 19.26667 3 39.169927-Mar-08 655.35 - 23.4 13.16429 19.85714 0.66295 39.8658928-Mar-08 646.05 - 9.3 15 18.5375 0.80917 44.72605 Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 83
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 1 0.8626831-Mar-08 622.7 - 23.35 15 17.3875 9 46.31416 12.8987 Average 11.72519 6 Relative Strength Index: The RSI compares the magnitude of a stocks recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100 RSI of Tata Motors Scrip 90 80 70 60 50 RSI RSI 40 30 20 10 0 4/2/2007 5/2/2007 8/2/2007 9/2/2007 1/2/2008 6/2/2007 7/2/2007 11/2/2007 12/2/2007 2/2/2008 3/2/2008 10/2/2007 Dates A 14 day RSI is calculated for stock it is recommended by wilder that a 14 period will be a good indicator. By using the simple formula RSI = {100- [100 / (1+RS)]}.It states that if RSI is below 30 buy & if it crosses above 70 then sell it. From 2nd April 07 to 31st March 08 the RSI is calculated, the best time to sell the stock was between 27th Sep 07 to 4th October 07 and 10th December 07 to 12th December 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 8th August 07 to 23rd August 07 and 23rd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 as well as between 7th March to 18th March 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days. Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 84
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: [By using Moving Average]Company: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.Sector: Automobile Sector 10 Days Moving Average of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Scrip Open Close 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 2-Apr-07 795 795 741.35 749.25 #N/A 3-Apr-07 745 765.8 745 756.45 #N/A 4-Apr-07 765 768 743.55 745.95 #N/A 5-Apr-07 746 763.9 741 755.9 #N/A 9-Apr-07 754 795.9 754 789.45 #N/A 10-Apr-07 790 801 785 786.15 #N/A 11-Apr-07 790 790 777.35 781.95 #N/A 12-Apr-07 770 778 750.55 758.95 #N/A 13-Apr-07 760 777 755 771.95 #N/A 16-Apr-07 777.1 786 775.1 778 767.4 17-Apr-07 781.15 784.5 760.15 762.1 768.685 18-Apr-07 765 774.35 761.25 764.25 769.465 19-Apr-07 764 780 746 771.9 772.06 20-Apr-07 778.1 791.8 772 778.6 774.33 23-Apr-07 798.7 798.7 764 766.9 772.075 24-Apr-07 770 810 762 796 773.06 25-Apr-07 800 815 783 791 773.965 26-Apr-07 840 840 785.55 797.5 777.82 27-Apr-07 794.2 810 789.25 795.9 780.215 30-Apr-07 798.5 808.75 783 806.1 783.025 3-May-07 817.5 824.6 811 814.35 788.25 4-May-07 821 822 803 807.45 792.57 7-May-07 820 824 801.1 804.95 795.875 8-May-07 811 814.9 782.5 800.75 798.09 9-May-07 801 814.45 791.1 802.3 801.63 10-May-07 848.7 848.7 790.1 794.9 801.52 11-May-07 795 806.5 751.25 795.5 801.97 14-May-07 820 820 800.1 803.7 802.59 15-May-07 801.1 808.9 791 806.55 803.655 16-May-07 807 810 792.2 802.55 803.3 17-May-07 803 820 803 816.8 803.545Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 85
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 18-May-07 815 825 799 810.1 803.81 21-May-07 810.1 825 800.25 821 805.415 22-May-07 823 844 796 830.6 808.4 Open Close 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 23-May-07 840 840 811.25 815.2 809.69 24-May-07 805.55 818 805.55 810.4 811.24 25-May-07 805 819.5 795 810.3 812.72 28-May-07 819.4 831.7 812 825.95 814.945 29-May-07 826.5 833 815.1 819.95 816.285 30-May-07 825 826 802 804.6 816.49 31-May-07 808 820 805 817.1 816.52 1-Jun-07 820 829.95 808.15 811.25 816.635 4-Jun-07 876 876 804 806.55 815.19 5-Jun-07 839.8 839.8 796 799.8 812.11 6-Jun-07 823.75 823.75 772.65 776.6 808.25 7-Jun-07 774 784 740.3 760.95 803.305 8-Jun-07 751.55 758 731 737.55 796.03 11-Jun-07 740.1 748.8 728.1 733.35 786.77 12-Jun-07 735 739.9 717 719.65 776.74 13-Jun-07 721 734 715.05 721.2 768.4 14-Jun-07 729 733 724.7 729.15 759.605 15-Jun-07 734.9 747 729.25 740.1 752.49 18-Jun-07 741 749.9 738.15 742.85 746.12 19-Jun-07 742.05 753.9 735.5 751.45 741.285 20-Jun-07 751.45 772.4 751.45 767.9 740.415 21-Jun-07 771 772 756 759.05 740.225 22-Jun-07 753.1 763.75 750 761.35 742.605 25-Jun-07 769 769 751 753.3 744.6 26-Jun-07 749 759.9 747.15 757.3 748.365 27-Jun-07 760 760 746.1 751.3 751.375 28-Jun-07 748 758.9 738.95 748.7 753.33 29-Jun-07 758 758 740.1 744.15 753.735 2-Jul-07 745 786.6 745 770.6 756.51 3-Jul-07 777 785 772 783.5 759.715 4-Jul-07 790 799 776.25 791.4 762.065 5-Jul-07 792.05 810.1 792 805.05 766.665 6-Jul-07 760.3 808.9 760.3 797 770.23 9-Jul-07 802 805 790 795.7 774.47 10-Jul-07 795.7 819 786.15 813.75 780.115 11-Jul-07 810 814.8 795.2 806.3 785.615 12-Jul-07 806.3 830.75 804 828.35 793.58 13-Jul-07 830 839 824 831.3 802.295 16-Jul-07 833 843.5 820.3 827.65 808 17-Jul-07 829.85 841.1 818 824.85 812.135 18-Jul-07 824.9 826 808.2 820.65 815.06 19-Jul-07 824 830.4 812.35 827.05 817.26 20-Jul-07 834.4 845 821 826.9 820.25 23-Jul-07 821 839.3 815.1 830.05 823.685 24-Jul-07 831 837.8 815.25 819.55 824.265 25-Jul-07 819.55 826.8 808 809.9 824.625Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 86
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 26-Jul-07 812 857.35 810 839.4 825.73 Open Close 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 27-Jul-07 835 845 808 830.25 825.625 30-Jul-07 860 860 806.5 845.85 827.445 31-Jul-07 848 854.95 820 844.55 829.415 1-Aug-07 831.1 835 806.1 821.2 829.47 2-Aug-07 825.2 851 821 832.3 829.995 3-Aug-07 834 856 828.8 850.65 832.37 6-Aug-07 845 847 819.5 824.9 831.855 7-Aug-07 847 847 821 824.85 832.385 8-Aug-07 832 841 825.1 836.6 835.055 9-Aug-07 844 869 817 826.85 833.8 10-Aug-07 810 816 795.5 809.55 831.73 13-Aug-07 815 836.9 813.05 832.7 830.415 14-Aug-07 843 843 817.15 823.55 828.315 16-Aug-07 829.95 829.95 780 793.45 825.54 17-Aug-07 793.8 793.8 715 778.65 820.175 20-Aug-07 800 815.9 780.2 783.75 813.485 21-Aug-07 790 791 761 767.5 807.745 22-Aug-07 765 789 749 765.8 801.84 23-Aug-07 795 804.05 760.15 775.95 795.775 24-Aug-07 789 802.9 766.1 790.05 792.095 27-Aug-07 804 848 802.25 833.45 794.485 28-Aug-07 834 838 815.3 832.5 794.465 29-Aug-07 820 838 810.3 833.55 795.465 30-Aug-07 845 849.75 831 836.75 799.795 31-Aug-07 825 872.9 825 867.7 808.7 3-Sep-07 876.7 901 875.3 881.65 818.49 4-Sep-07 889.95 898.8 870 893.3 831.07 5-Sep-07 893.5 900 868.1 873.75 841.865 6-Sep-07 839.7 883 839.7 880.65 852.335 7-Sep-07 884.9 887.9 870 873.3 860.66 10-Sep-07 837 880.9 837 874.6 864.775 11-Sep-07 879 881.8 856 861.15 867.64 12-Sep-07 869.8 869.8 854.6 859.55 870.24 13-Sep-07 803.55 894 803.55 891.7 875.735 14-Sep-07 895 904.8 863.5 866.75 875.64 17-Sep-07 865 880.9 863.2 874.95 874.97 18-Sep-07 876 884 868 875.4 873.18 19-Sep-07 889 934 889 923.85 878.19 20-Sep-07 930 930 907.2 910.15 881.14 21-Sep-07 909 935.5 909 931.4 886.95 24-Sep-07 931.4 1001.2 931.4 980.75 897.565 25-Sep-07 980 1001 950.3 991.15 910.565 26-Sep-07 992 1000 955 961.95 920.805 27-Sep-07 970.2 984.8 956.6 980.15 929.65 28-Sep-07 980.25 1028 971.25 998.75 942.85 1-Oct-07 1008.8 1010 978.75 990.15 954.37 3-Oct-07 985 1034.7 960.25 1019.25 968.755 Date Open High Price Low Price Close 10 days movingBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 87
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Price Price average 4-Oct-07 1020 1048 1011 1042.25 980.595 5-Oct-07 1045 1053.7 1020 1034.85 993.065 8-Oct-07 1051 1051 1001.05 1025.25 1002.45 9-Oct-07 1023.8 1114.7 1010 1105.05 1014.88 10-Oct-07 1105 1135 1076 1101.05 1025.87 11-Oct-07 1107 1134.05 1084.25 1119.35 1041.61 12-Oct-07 1119.9 1119.9 1084 1096.75 1053.27 15-Oct-07 1095 1177.4 1095 1160.7 1069.465 16-Oct-07 1161 1190 1123.1 1184.7 1088.92 17-Oct-07 1075.55 1224 1075.55 1174 1104.395 18-Oct-07 1175 1210 1125 1139.35 1114.105 19-Oct-07 1160 1180 1048 1076.6 1118.28 22-Oct-07 1059.9 1094.9 1025 1060.15 1121.77 23-Oct-07 1061 1116.85 1061 1102.9 1121.555 24-Oct-07 1112 1139 1088 1118.45 1123.295 25-Oct-07 1110 1184.9 1090 1164.2 1127.78 26-Oct-07 1140.1 1199 1130 1182.2 1136.325 29-Oct-07 1194.4 1248 1175.55 1189.85 1139.24 30-Oct-07 1189.85 1203 1080 1087.4 1129.51 31-Oct-07 1090 1128.9 1045 1073.85 1119.495 1-Nov-07 1100 1100 997.05 1006.55 1106.215 2-Nov-07 1000 1033 969 1021.2 1100.675 5-Nov-07 1026.15 1036.5 970.3 994.65 1094.125 6-Nov-07 1010 1023.8 962.8 972 1081.035 7-Nov-07 995 1011.9 960 999.35 1069.125 8-Nov-07 990 1010 961.25 994.5 1052.155 9-Nov-07 1010 1010.4 980 990.05 1032.94 12-Nov-07 972 1001 957.05 995.5 1013.505 13-Nov-07 997.95 1020 981 1003.05 1005.07 14-Nov-07 1010 1046 1010 1038.25 1001.51 15-Nov-07 1037.5 1065.5 1025 1037.15 1004.57 16-Nov-07 1020 1059.9 1007 1046.95 1007.145 19-Nov-07 1051 1065.4 1051 1053.8 1013.06 20-Nov-07 1048 1048 995.7 1007 1016.56 21-Nov-07 1016 1016 945 954.25 1012.05 22-Nov-07 954.25 986 940 965.25 1009.125 23-Nov-07 970 986 938.05 947.45 1004.865 26-Nov-07 950.1 974 948 951.7 1000.485 27-Nov-07 951.7 954 930.25 937.45 993.925 28-Nov-07 945.5 974.8 945.05 967.5 986.85 29-Nov-07 984.35 1008.8 975.05 990.1 982.145 30-Nov-07 1000 1024.95 996.4 1014.15 978.865 3-Dec-07 1030 1049 1021.5 1032.85 976.77 4-Dec-07 1020 1035 973.45 1027.95 978.865 5-Dec-07 1012 1044 1012 1034.4 986.88 6-Dec-07 1040 1064.8 1035 1040.8 994.435 7-Dec-07 1050 1056 1004.3 1041.45 1003.835 Open Close 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 10-Dec-07 1059.9 1059.9 1034.75 1045.65 1013.23Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 88
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 11-Dec-07 1050 1085 1040 1077.6 1027.245 12-Dec-07 1080 1098 1058.05 1073.3 1037.825 13-Dec-07 1083 1089.8 1026.2 1037 1042.515 14-Dec-07 1045 1048.95 1021.1 1042.35 1045.335 17-Dec-07 1042 1044 1006.75 1012.8 1043.33 18-Dec-07 1000 1042.7 1000 1018 1042.335 19-Dec-07 1037.8 1042 980 998 1038.695 20-Dec-07 1005 1028 981.1 993.6 1033.975 24-Dec-07 1000 1012.5 982.3 990.25 1028.855 26-Dec-07 994.7 1007 988.7 993.1 1023.6 27-Dec-07 999 1014.8 992.25 995.2 1015.36 28-Dec-07 992 1010 978.5 986.6 1006.69 31-Dec-07 1000 1009.9 985.1 994.5 1002.44 1-Jan-08 1000 1000 986 991.55 997.36 2-Jan-08 1005 1009.95 978.6 997.05 995.785 3-Jan-08 999 999 969.95 973.2 991.305 4-Jan-08 975 982.5 959 964.15 987.92 7-Jan-08 952 970 952 963.75 984.935 8-Jan-08 965 970 936 939.8 979.89 9-Jan-08 944.9 1055 912.5 924.75 973.055 10-Jan-08 931 941.75 905.05 909.2 964.455 11-Jan-08 927 927 888 899.7 955.765 14-Jan-08 899.7 909 840 863.45 942.66 15-Jan-08 873.95 881.35 852 871.35 930.64 16-Jan-08 868 868 827 847.7 915.705 17-Jan-08 855 894.9 842.15 864.8 904.865 18-Jan-08 860 865.55 835.1 842 892.65 21-Jan-08 824 834.5 755.05 803.2 876.595 22-Jan-08 780 840 700 807.05 863.32 23-Jan-08 835 859 785 826.15 853.46 24-Jan-08 850 850 761 788.75 841.415 25-Jan-08 823 845 794 833.7 834.815 28-Jan-08 775.05 874 775.05 864.7 834.94 29-Jan-08 870 881 816.3 863 834.105 30-Jan-08 870 870 833 844.9 833.825 31-Jan-08 843 864.8 825 850.2 832.365 1-Feb-08 833.15 918 826 905.75 838.74 4-Feb-08 920 923.9 891.2 897.35 848.155 5-Feb-08 912 920 869 872.6 854.71 6-Feb-08 855.1 860 827 832.25 855.32 7-Feb-08 845 845 790 800 856.445 8-Feb-08 802 814 780.1 805.75 853.65 11-Feb-08 805.75 850 775 813.35 848.515 12-Feb-08 815.4 827 796.25 807.7 842.985 13-Feb-08 812 824.95 802.15 817.25 840.22 14-Feb-08 821.1 845 820 829.2 838.12 Open Close 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 15-Feb-08 825 829 805 812.45 828.79 18-Feb-08 830 830 801 806.2 819.675Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 89
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 19-Feb-08 813 819 805.15 809.4 813.355 20-Feb-08 808 808 763 769.7 807.1 21-Feb-08 777 790 754.45 763.15 803.415 22-Feb-08 765 774.8 750.1 766.35 799.475 25-Feb-08 775 805.5 768.25 800.55 798.195 26-Feb-08 811.3 816 791 813.3 798.755 27-Feb-08 815 840 815 832.9 800.32 28-Feb-08 830 843 816.7 837.15 801.115 29-Feb-08 830 875 825 868.2 806.69 3-Mar-08 859.7 909 847.5 872.65 813.335 4-Mar-08 875 915 875 904.55 822.85 5-Mar-08 907 944.5 902 940.2 839.9 7-Mar-08 921.25 938.1 873.55 927.85 856.37 10-Mar-08 919 938 883 895.05 869.24 11-Mar-08 885 892 852 866.65 875.85 12-Mar-08 876 884.9 851.1 857.4 880.26 13-Mar-08 850 874.9 806 840.35 881.005 14-Mar-08 840 849.8 805 832.7 880.56 17-Mar-08 810 829.9 800 806.55 874.395 18-Mar-08 810 824.85 805.15 813.35 868.465 19-Mar-08 830 836.25 801.6 822.45 860.255 24-Mar-08 863.55 863.55 790 810.2 847.255 25-Mar-08 825 863.95 816 843.85 838.855 26-Mar-08 850 856 835.05 845.6 833.91 27-Mar-08 840.25 848.5 831 838.3 831.075 28-Mar-08 834.75 855 822 837.8 829.115 31-Mar-08 840 840 811 827 827.78Chart:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 90
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 10 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE OF MARUTI SCRIP 1400 1200 1000 STOCK PRICE 800 Actual 600 Forecast 400 200 0 7/2/2007 1/2/2008 4/2/2007 5/2/2007 6/2/2007 8/2/2007 9/2/2007 2/2/2008 3/2/2008 10/2/2007 11/2/2007 DATES 12/2/2007Interpretation: Here, the Moving Average is almost equal to the Actual line. So it indicates that itis a right time to buy the security. In this Graph, we can observe that moving Average ofMaruti Suzuki Ltd. Stock has been decreased. So, it is giving clear picture of futuremovement of the scrip. This Graph provides a message to the investor that it is a righttime to buy the Stock of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. And, if we observe the trend of this graphthen we can also notice that Moving Average line has been decreased, so it is also a righttime to buy the stock. Here, in this case, the Stock price of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. is just equal to its movingaverage line. But if we see the trend of Moving Average then it indicates that investorsare becoming increasingly bullish from bearish pattern on the Stock Price of MarutiSuzuki Ltd.Company: Tata Motors.Sector: AutomobileBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 91
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 10 days Moving Average of Tata Motors Scrip Opening Closing 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 2-Apr-07 711 711 661.05 670.9 #N/A 3-Apr-07 679.7 685.85 671 681.4 #N/A 4-Apr-07 686.1 690.95 669.1 682.8 #N/A 5-Apr-07 680 694.75 679.1 686.1 #N/A 9-Apr-07 690 709.75 690 703.7 #N/A 10-Apr-07 711.5 725.6 708.2 721.55 #N/A 11-Apr-07 721.55 731 713.65 722.8 #N/A 12-Apr-07 718.8 719 707.05 712.4 #N/A 13-Apr-07 714.1 727.5 704 726.3 #N/A 16-Apr-07 735 754.9 730 750.25 705.82 17-Apr-07 751 761.5 728 730.6 711.79 18-Apr-07 711.25 741 711.25 722.5 715.9 19-Apr-07 717 722.2 704.2 713.1 718.93 20-Apr-07 722 733.45 720.1 722.9 722.61 23-Apr-07 729.7 733.7 715 718.15 724.055 24-Apr-07 728.8 754 725.1 741.6 726.06 25-Apr-07 750.1 767.45 750.05 759.05 729.685 26-Apr-07 777 789.85 747.5 766.6 735.105 27-Apr-07 768.15 774.4 739 749.35 737.41 30-Apr-07 740.15 761 732 751.75 737.56 3-May-07 780 780 729.1 733.1 737.81 4-May-07 734 744.7 726 731.5 738.71 7-May-07 735 743 718.6 728.3 740.23 8-May-07 728.3 735 720.05 725.1 740.45 9-May-07 730 731.5 713 723.25 740.96 10-May-07 728.1 733.75 712 714.85 738.285 11-May-07 713 720.85 690 716.1 733.99 14-May-07 728.7 729.8 709.1 715.2 728.85 15-May-07 717.9 719.9 713 714.35 725.35 16-May-07 715 737.9 715 734.65 723.64 17-May-07 754.7 756.8 737 750.6 725.39 18-May-07 752 757 740 741.8 726.42 21-May-07 741 745 723 725.45 726.135 22-May-07 727 743.65 724.3 726.95 726.32 23-May-07 647.9 733.85 647.9 708 724.795 24-May-07 706.85 717 705.25 712.7 724.58 25-May-07 708 729 703.05 726.95 725.665 28-May-07 730 740.9 728.2 732.75 727.42 29-May-07 735 743.9 730.15 740.85 730.07 30-May-07 745.9 745.9 736 742.1 730.815 Opening Closing 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 31-May-07 744 764.4 742 755.7 731.325 1-Jun-07 753.35 759.7 742.2 747.95 731.94 4-Jun-07 745 745 707.55 710.85 730.48 5-Jun-07 714.8 721.3 707.7 710.5 728.835Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 92
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 6-Jun-07 705 710 656.1 688 726.835 7-Jun-07 676 709.7 672.4 677.85 723.35 8-Jun-07 677.85 677.85 646.55 652.2 715.875 11-Jun-07 676.1 676.1 646 653.2 707.92 12-Jun-07 575 659 575 641.2 697.955 13-Jun-07 645 657.3 642 645.2 688.265 14-Jun-07 665.15 665.15 638.3 642.25 676.92 15-Jun-07 647 685 645 650.4 667.165 18-Jun-07 658 658 642.9 644.95 660.575 19-Jun-07 644 664.95 644 663.5 655.875 20-Jun-07 666.15 690.05 666.15 686.4 655.715 21-Jun-07 695 698 682.1 687.5 656.68 22-Jun-07 682 687.5 663.15 684.3 659.89 25-Jun-07 685 690.5 673.15 678.15 662.385 26-Jun-07 678 688 671.05 684.6 666.725 27-Jun-07 683.5 685.5 666 671.7 669.375 28-Jun-07 673.7 675.85 659.75 664.4 671.59 29-Jun-07 666.05 675 666 670.2 673.57 2-Jul-07 669.5 687.4 666.2 682.2 677.295 3-Jul-07 684 694.9 676.2 685.85 679.53 4-Jul-07 693.9 707.5 687 701.35 681.025 5-Jul-07 700 712.9 695.35 709.55 683.23 6-Jul-07 709 718 695.65 711.2 685.92 9-Jul-07 711.05 722.5 711.05 716.3 689.735 10-Jul-07 720 746.6 720 743.25 695.6 11-Jul-07 742 743.25 727.15 736.1 702.04 12-Jul-07 736.1 745 727 739.85 709.585 13-Jul-07 749 772.1 743.05 767.05 719.27 16-Jul-07 786 786 751.3 759.5 727 17-Jul-07 759.5 767 745.1 748.8 733.295 18-Jul-07 750 755 731.5 743.35 737.495 19-Jul-07 750 785 743 776.75 744.215 20-Jul-07 830 830 760 767.6 749.855 23-Jul-07 770 780 756 766.6 754.885 24-Jul-07 769 779 745 747.1 755.27 25-Jul-07 747.1 747.1 722.5 726 754.26 26-Jul-07 730.9 762.25 718.2 731.85 753.46 27-Jul-07 735 735 695 699.15 746.67 30-Jul-07 720.5 720.5 696 707.25 741.445 31-Jul-07 706 718.8 685.55 699.4 736.505 1-Aug-07 699 699 660.6 667.4 728.91 2-Aug-07 665 677.6 646.6 651.8 716.415 3-Aug-07 660.4 673 653.25 656.35 705.29 Opening Closing 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 6-Aug-07 650 655 631.2 648.8 693.51 7-Aug-07 655 667 655 657.7 684.57 8-Aug-07 665 670.45 657 658.95 677.865 9-Aug-07 664 680 659.2 663.55 671.035 10-Aug-07 648.65 672.5 648.65 669.4 668.06 13-Aug-07 675 696 670.15 692.55 666.59Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 93
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 14-Aug-07 696 698.5 681 691.15 665.765 16-Aug-07 661 673.8 650 660.5 665.075 17-Aug-07 660.5 669 638.4 641.15 664.01 20-Aug-07 660 667 644.1 649.85 663.36 21-Aug-07 650 655 628.15 634.15 661.895 22-Aug-07 633 642.5 616.1 619.5 658.075 23-Aug-07 629.9 642 613 620.8 654.26 24-Aug-07 628.1 664 628.1 656.6 653.565 27-Aug-07 665.35 682 665.35 675.4 654.165 28-Aug-07 679 679 656.4 663.05 651.215 29-Aug-07 660 677.6 645 674.15 649.515 30-Aug-07 680.2 699 674 680.75 651.54 31-Aug-07 680 711 680 701.75 657.6 3-Sep-07 704 709 692.2 702.85 662.9 4-Sep-07 700.05 707.9 682.05 691.35 668.62 5-Sep-07 700 712.9 687 698.85 676.555 6-Sep-07 701 716.9 690 712.05 685.68 7-Sep-07 714 718 692.15 695.15 689.535 10-Sep-07 686.5 704.85 681.2 702.7 692.265 11-Sep-07 704 704.5 686.3 689.15 694.875 12-Sep-07 692 698.9 681 684.75 695.935 13-Sep-07 684.75 699 684.4 695 697.36 14-Sep-07 701 704.9 689.25 693.75 696.56 17-Sep-07 698 698 688.55 694.75 695.75 18-Sep-07 698 701 692.15 696.1 696.225 19-Sep-07 703 734.95 700 720.4 698.38 20-Sep-07 728.9 747.8 724 731.25 700.3 21-Sep-07 729.05 747.45 720 741 704.885 24-Sep-07 749.8 755 737.35 747.2 709.335 25-Sep-07 747.2 747.9 733.1 740.9 714.51 26-Sep-07 740.9 747 721.5 739.9 720.025 27-Sep-07 747 760.7 740 751.3 725.655 28-Sep-07 755 822 742.1 776.9 733.97 1-Oct-07 807 807 765 773.3 741.825 3-Oct-07 778 809.6 752.1 788.1 751.025 4-Oct-07 800 807.4 777.4 799.45 758.93 5-Oct-07 799.45 800.05 770 779.05 763.71 8-Oct-07 780.15 787 745 764.35 766.045 9-Oct-07 745 800 745 796.15 770.94 10-Oct-07 773.65 818.9 773.65 806.7 777.52 11-Oct-07 811 841.9 800.1 830.55 786.585 Opening Closing 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 12-Oct-07 830 838.9 789.05 803.35 791.79 15-Oct-07 807 825 807 818.3 795.93 16-Oct-07 837.1 837.1 805 820.8 800.68 17-Oct-07 776.65 814.8 741 806.95 802.565 18-Oct-07 801.25 821.7 755 791.35 801.755 19-Oct-07 779.6 801 758.25 785.15 802.365 22-Oct-07 779 784 760 772.9 803.22 23-Oct-07 781 808.4 781 795.6 803.165Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 94
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 24-Oct-07 798.9 805 770 774.6 799.955 25-Oct-07 784 816.8 775 800.6 796.96 26-Oct-07 799.8 815 775.2 804.8 797.105 29-Oct-07 816.8 836.8 801 807.25 796 30-Oct-07 810 816.9 756.05 767.75 790.695 31-Oct-07 767.3 805.95 750.05 757.85 785.785 1-Nov-07 770 771.9 739 746.95 781.345 2-Nov-07 730 759 725 754.8 778.31 5-Nov-07 750 750 735 740.15 775.035 6-Nov-07 740.15 744.8 716.3 719.45 767.42 7-Nov-07 720 734.5 710.2 720.3 761.99 8-Nov-07 715 724.7 704.6 707.55 752.685 9-Nov-07 718.4 718.4 687 694.8 741.685 12-Nov-07 687 694.35 675 684.35 729.395 13-Nov-07 690 705.2 673.1 693.3 721.95 14-Nov-07 700 731.8 700 707.65 716.93 15-Nov-07 705 718.5 695.55 698.95 712.13 16-Nov-07 685 711 685 697.1 706.36 19-Nov-07 705 715.9 697 703.1 702.655 20-Nov-07 700 718 691 708.45 701.555 21-Nov-07 739.2 739.2 686.1 691.3 698.655 22-Nov-07 702 709.8 678.15 694.5 697.35 23-Nov-07 700 723.7 698.3 714.35 699.305 26-Nov-07 720.1 728 705 711.75 702.045 27-Nov-07 710 722.5 706 719.75 704.69 28-Nov-07 720 725.95 714 721.25 706.05 29-Nov-07 722 744 714 718.2 707.975 30-Nov-07 724 744 714 732.45 711.51 3-Dec-07 736 749 733.35 736.15 714.815 4-Dec-07 737 746 728.35 741.3 718.1 5-Dec-07 744 783.9 744 772.4 726.21 6-Dec-07 775.5 782 763.25 775.45 734.305 7-Dec-07 775 781.7 760.55 767.3 739.6 10-Dec-07 772 777.7 745.05 766.45 745.07 11-Dec-07 770 777.3 761 775.2 750.615 12-Dec-07 776.9 780 762 770.05 755.495 13-Dec-07 770 787.8 747.1 763.15 759.99 14-Dec-07 760 764 738 744.85 761.23 17-Dec-07 743.8 749.7 690 701.75 757.79 Opening Closing 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 18-Dec-07 709.1 720 697 702.2 753.88 19-Dec-07 716 717.4 681.2 690.7 745.71 20-Dec-07 692 714.9 692 710.15 739.18 24-Dec-07 727 733.7 717 730.4 735.49 26-Dec-07 736 755.5 730 752.1 734.055 27-Dec-07 756 760 731.4 736.75 730.21 28-Dec-07 732 739.7 688 729.35 726.14 31-Dec-07 744 745 733 741.9 724.015 1-Jan-08 742 766.5 737 762.35 725.765 2-Jan-08 766.85 797 753 793.55 734.945Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 95
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 3-Jan-08 800 816 780.05 791.6 743.885 4-Jan-08 800 824.1 771.15 781.65 752.98 7-Jan-08 783 807.8 763 785.4 760.505 8-Jan-08 790 799.5 765.4 774.9 764.955 9-Jan-08 767 787 754 770.2 766.765 10-Jan-08 783 802 744.1 749.2 768.01 11-Jan-08 779.95 779.95 736.15 763.1 771.385 14-Jan-08 764.9 779.5 758.9 765.6 773.755 15-Jan-08 777.7 790 758.65 769 774.42 16-Jan-08 750 755 730.3 749.95 770.06 17-Jan-08 750 755 730.35 736.65 764.565 18-Jan-08 736.65 737.7 706.3 714.3 757.83 21-Jan-08 714 716 637.15 653.65 744.655 22-Jan-08 635 690 530.5 650.9 732.255 23-Jan-08 680 710 639 658.85 721.12 24-Jan-08 673 693.4 645 658.55 712.055 25-Jan-08 667.1 718 667 710.45 706.79 28-Jan-08 705 739.7 670 712.75 701.505 29-Jan-08 720.1 737.5 701 715.8 696.185 30-Jan-08 723.9 723.9 686.25 696.95 690.885 31-Jan-08 709 720 686.6 699.45 687.165 1-Feb-08 708 760 706 753.5 691.085 4-Feb-08 765 787.8 754 770 702.72 5-Feb-08 770 774 745 754 713.03 6-Feb-08 733.95 743 702.6 735.95 720.74 7-Feb-08 740 748.9 698.05 715.1 726.395 8-Feb-08 717 730 697.05 710.95 726.445 11-Feb-08 707.3 723.8 685 700.85 725.255 12-Feb-08 700.85 710.4 688.65 693.9 723.065 13-Feb-08 700 719.9 700 714.8 724.85 14-Feb-08 724.1 743.8 721.55 733.15 728.22 15-Feb-08 725 756 715 751.85 728.055 18-Feb-08 724.05 755 724.05 732.7 724.325 19-Feb-08 740 750.8 735.1 739.65 722.89 20-Feb-08 738.8 738.8 700 710.3 720.325 21-Feb-08 715 729 703.2 708.05 719.62 22-Feb-08 708.5 708.5 690 696.05 718.13 Opening Closing 10 days moving Date High Price Low Price Price Price average 25-Feb-08 700.1 715 695 705.85 718.63 26-Feb-08 710 714 700.15 704.15 719.655 27-Feb-08 705.1 717.95 705 707.85 718.96 28-Feb-08 705 714.9 703.35 709.8 716.625 29-Feb-08 709.8 715 686.3 700.35 711.475 3-Mar-08 700.35 709.95 685 695.1 707.715 4-Mar-08 703 706.95 688.4 702.2 703.97 5-Mar-08 703 711.95 700 704.35 703.375 7-Mar-08 701.1 701.1 658 671.8 699.75 10-Mar-08 672.5 699.7 611.65 674.8 697.625 11-Mar-08 675 675 650.1 653.3 692.37 12-Mar-08 669 669 638.3 645.1 686.465Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 96
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 13-Mar-08 640 675 614.15 621.35 677.815 14-Mar-08 624 645 624 637.65 670.6 17-Mar-08 625 629.7 597.1 609.4 661.505 18-Mar-08 609.4 625 597 619.45 653.94 19-Mar-08 633.1 655 632 650.65 648.785 24-Mar-08 651.95 669.95 651.95 663.2 644.67 25-Mar-08 670 685 670 680.1 645.5 26-Mar-08 690 694 651.05 678.75 645.895 27-Mar-08 670 673.6 628.35 655.35 646.1 28-Mar-08 654 654 633.1 646.05 646.195 31-Mar-08 641 645 617.35 622.7 646.33Chart:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 97
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” 10 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE OF TATA SCRIP 900 800 700 600 STOCK PRICE 500 Actual 400 Forecast 300 200 100 0 4/2/2007 6/2/2007 7/2/2007 9/2/2007 2/2/2008 5/2/2007 8/2/2007 1/2/2008 3/2/2008 10/2/2007 11/2/2007 12/2/2007 DATESInterpretation: Here, In this case, Moving Average is above the Actual line. So it indicates that itis a right time to buy the security. In this Graph, we can see that the moving average ofTata Motors Stock has been decreased. So, it is giving clear picture of future movementof the scrip. This Graph provides a message to the investor that it is a right time to buythe Stock of Tata Motors. Here, in this case, the actual Stock price of Tata Motors is just below its movingaverage line. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the StockPrice of Tata Motors. Moreover, Stock price and moving Average of Tata Motors has been decreased. Itindicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish from bearish pattern on theStock Price of Tata Motors.TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: [By Using Candle Stick Charting]Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 98
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”Company Name: Maruti Suzuki Ltd. Candle Stick of Maruti Suzuki scrip 1400 1200 1000 Stock Prices 800 Opening Price High Price 600 Low Price Closing Price 400 200 0 4/2/2007 3/2/2008 5/2/2007 6/2/2007 7/2/2007 8/2/2007 9/2/2007 1/2/2008 2/2/2008 10/2/2007 11/2/2007 12/2/2007 DatesInterpretation: Japanese Candle Stick is used to analyze the pattern of stock movement. Candle issame as bar chart but the color is different red candle is used to indicate the bearish trendand green candle is a indicator of bullish trend Japanese candle use historical prices of a stock in the prescribed manner i.e.Open, High, Low, Close. The size of the candle is known by its magnitude of open andclose, and the size of the shadow is known by high and close. In the above Candle Stick Chart it is clear that Stock Price of Maruti Suzuki Ltd.has been decreased. Simply Share Prices of Maruti Suzuki Ltd is falling down. Itindicates that the investors are becoming more bearish than bullish. Here, as far as MarutiSuzuki is concerned, bearish market trend is taking place. It is a right time to buy theScrip.Company: Tata MotorsBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 99
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” Candle Stick for TATA Motors Scrip 900 800 700 600 Stock Prices 500 Opening Price High Price 400 Low Price 300 Closing Price 200 100 0 2/2/2008 4/2/2007 5/2/2007 6/2/2007 7/2/2007 8/2/2007 9/2/2007 1/2/2008 3/2/2008 10/2/2007 11/2/2007 12/2/2007 DatesInterpretation: From the above Candle Stick Chart it is clear that Stock Price of Tata Motors isfalling down. Here, we can observe lot of volatility in stock price. Both the Bullish andBearish trends are taking place. The Bullish trend is following by Bearish Trend. Itindicates that the investors are becoming more bearish than bullish. At present SituationBearish Trend is going on. It is a right time to buy the Scrip.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 100
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” FINDINGS, SUGGESTIONS & CONCLUSION CHAPTER: 10 FINDINGS, SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSIONFindings of the study:Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 101
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”• In case of RSI of Maruti Suzuki Scrip, the best time to sell the stock was between 12 th July 07 to 31st July 07 and 9th October 07 to 18th October 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 2 nd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days.• In case of RSI of Tata Motors, the best time to sell the stock was between 27 th Sep 07 to 4th October 07 and 10th December 07 to 12th December 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 8 th August 07 to 23rd August 07 and 23rd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 as well as between 7th March to 18th March 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days.• The 10 days moving average of Maruti Suzuki scrip, provides a message to the investor that it is a right time to buy the Stock and, the trend of the Moving Average line has been decreased, so it is also a right time to buy the stock.• In case of 10 days Moving Average of Tata Motors Ssrip, the actual Stock price is just below its moving average line. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the Stock Price of Tata Motors.• In Japanese Candle Stick Chart of Maruti Suzuki Ltd. we can see that the stock price has been decreased. Simply Share Prices of Maruti Suzuki Ltd is falling down. It indicates that the investors are becoming more bearish than bullish.• In case of Japanese Candle Stick Chart of Tata Motors, we can observe lot of volatility in stock price. Both the Bullish and Bearish trends are taking place. The Bullish trend is following by Bearish Trend• Fundamentally, financial performance of these companies in respect of sales and profit is good.• If an investor opts for long term investment then he will earn huge amount of return. Long term Investment is known to be less risky.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 102
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”• This study may not provide any guidelines to Speculators. It is useful to Long Term Investors.• Technical analysts evaluate securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, past prices and volume.• One of the most basic and easy to use technical analysis indicators is the moving average, which shows the average value of a securitys price over a period of time. The most commonly used moving averages are 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 50 days, 100 days and 200-days moving average..• One of the most important areas for any investor to look when researching a company is the financial statement. Financial reports are required by law and are published both quarterly and annually.• Indian Economy is consistently achieving a tremendous growth in these Sectors.• If we consider RSI then almost all the scrips of these companies are lying between 30 and 70. It means an investor should hold the scrips until it reaches 70 to sell and 30 to buy.• The stock prices always take a correction after a major climb.• Moving average is one of the best methods of predicting future movement of Stock Price. If we use 200 Day Moving Average for Analysis then volatility of stock will be less. It gives clear picture of movement of Stock.Conclusion of the study: As we all know India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Indiais consistently achieving growth in automobile sector. The automotive industry iswitnessing tremendous and unprecedented changes these days. On a global scale, theBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 103
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”assets of the top ten automotive corporations accounts for 28% of the assets of theworld’s top 50 companies, 29% of their employment and 30% of their total sales. The Indian automobile industry is going through a technological change whereeach firm is engaged in changing its processes and technologies to sustain thecompetitive advantage and provide customers with the optimized products and services. The automobile industry had a growth of 15.4 % during April-January 2007, withthe average annual growth of 10-15% over the last decade or so. With the incrementalinvestment of $35-40 billion, the growth is expected to double in the next 10 years. Consistent growth and dedication have made the Indian automobile industry thesecond- largest tractor and two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. It is also the fifth-largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the world. The Indian automobile market isamong the largest in Asia. The Ministry of Heavy Industries has released the Automotive Plan 2006-2016,with the motive of making India the most popular manufacturing hub for automobiles andits components in Asia. The plan focuses on the removal of all the bottlenecks that areinhibiting its growth in the domestic as well as international arena. With comparatively higher rate of economic growth rate index against that ofgreat global powers, India has become a hub of domestic and exports business. Theautomobile sector has been contributing its share to the shining economic performance ofIndia in the recent years. The Indian automobile industry is going through a phase of rapid change and highgrowth. With new projects coming up on a regular basis, the industry is undergoingtechnological change. The major players are expanding their plants and focusing on masscustomization, mass production, etc Apart from domestic production, the industry is consistently focusing on theautomobile exports. The auto component segment is contributing a lot in the exportarena. The liberalized policies of the government are now making the companies go formore and more exports. Because of these reasons, the shares of automobile industry are performing welland therefore the share market is attracting people to invest their hard earned money andfind fortune. But lack of knowledge about shares and stock market is making themBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 104
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”cautious of investing in this market. They need to be educated as well as guided tominimize the risk and to assess the return on their investment.Suggestions:1. Before going to invest, an investor should have clear and adequate knowledge of capital market.2. It is better to go for Long term Investment rather than the Short term Investment. Because it is less risky and also provides sufficient return.3. The investors should know the value of money.4. Practically, stock market activities are very risky. So, investors should be careful while investing.5. In case of half knowledge about stock market is very dangerous. So, whenever a person wants to invest in stock market he should take necessary tips from the experts or Technical Analysts.6. Investors should also look into global pressure and market movement in order to look for avenues of investing in different stocks and to take position; some of the sources for understanding global pressure are CNBC TV18, News Paper, Economy watch etc.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 105
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector” BIBLIOGRAPHY CHAPTER 11 BIBLIOGRAPHYBabasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 106
    • “Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Automobile Sector”BOOKS REFERRED:1. Security Analysis & Portfolio Management, By, Punithavathy Pandian.2. Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management, By Prasanna Chandra3. Financial Markets & Institutions, By, Dr. S. Guruswamy4. Security Analysis And Portfolio Management, By, Donald E.Fisher And Ronald J. Jordan,WEB SITES: 1. www.bseindia.com 2. www.nseindia.com 3. www.stockchart.com 4. www.icicidirect.com 5. www.marutisuzuki.com 6. www.tatamotors.com 7. www.investopedia.com 8. www.moneycontrol.com 9. www.equitymaster.comMAGZINES AND JOURNALS: 1. Annual Reports of Companies. 2. Factsheet of Geojit Securities.Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com Page 107