Hrcc Curranpresentation

Climate Change the environmental evidence Human Rights and Climate Change: achieving climate justice in Scotland 23 November 2009 Prof James C Curran Director of Environmental Science, SEPA

CO 2 through the ages

Planetary Change over 50 years

Changes in Temperature

Changes in Precipitation Source: A handbook of climate trends across Scotland. SNIFFER 2006

Annual mean global atmospheric CO 2

HADCM3 – Global Projections TEMPERATURE 2090s PRECIPITATION change in temperature (ºC) SUMMER (JJA) WINTER (DJF) change in precipitation (%) SUMMER (JJA) WINTER (DJF) HADCM3 17-Member Ensemble PPE - Perturbed Physics Ensemble 2071-2100 High Emissions Scenario (A1B)

Net Carbon Exchange of all Terrestrial Ecosystems Taken from www.ipcc.ch

2080s HIGH EMISSIONS SCENARIO – MEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGE change in mean temperature (ºC) 67% probability level unlikely to be more than 90% probability level very unlikely to be more than 10% probability level very unlikely to be less than 33% probability level unlikely to be less than 50% probability level central estimate SUMMER 67% probability level unlikely to be more than 90% probability level very unlikely to be more than 10% probability level very unlikely to be less than 33% probability level unlikely to be less than 50% probability level central estimate WINTER

2080s HIGH EMISSIONS SCENARIO – MEAN PRECIPITATION CHANGE 67% probability level unlikely to be more than 90% probability level very unlikely to be more than 10% probability level very unlikely to be less than 33% probability level unlikely to be less than 50% probability level central estimate SUMMER 67% probability level unlikely to be more than 90% probability level very unlikely to be more than 10% probability level very unlikely to be less than 33% probability level unlikely to be less than 50% probability level central estimate WINTER change in precipitation (%)

Compendium of Projected Risks due to Critical Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems for Different Levels of Global Mean Annual Temperature Rise (www.ipcc.ch)

Factors Affecting Vulnerability to Climate Change Taken from SNIFFER Report UKCC22

Direction & Magnitude of Change of Selected Heath Impacts of Climate Change Taken from www.ipcc.ch

Flood Depths in New Orleans on 3 rd Sep 2005 – 5 days after Hurricane Katrina Taken from www.ipcc.ch 27.9 New Orleans City 19.3 Mississipi 18.4 Louisiana Counties hit hardest by Katrina: 12.4 USA average Percentage of popn. classed as poor

The European Heatwave 2003: impacts and adaptation Taken from www.ipcc.ch

% population living within 1km of derelict sites by deprivation decile Taken from SNIFFER Report UE4 (03) 01

% population within 1km of an IPPC site by deprivation decile Taken from SNIFFER Report UE4 (03) 01

% population within 1km of a river with overall water quality classified as ‘C’ or ‘D’ Taken from SNIFFER Report UE4 (03) 01

% population in each deprivation decile living in data zones with the highest value of NO 2 and PM 10 Taken from SNIFFER Report UE4 (03) 01

% population within 600 meters of all woodland by urban deprivation decile Taken from SNIFFER Report UE4 (03) 01

So people living in deprived areas:
are 62% more likely to be living in a high flood risk zone
about half have no building insurance
are less able to access information and warnings
live near poor quality rivers
are susceptible to heat waves due to poor housing
suffer poor air quality
have less access to green spaces and parks

MetOffice – Impacts of global temp rise of 4 degrees (animated) www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk

we have met the enemy, and he is us

Hrcc Curranpresentation

by BTCV on Dec 18, 2009

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

1 Embed 13

Statistics

Hrcc Curranpresentation — Presentation Transcript