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LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
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LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…

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  • 1. Dealing with Bus Bunching A control tool, a pilot plan and a pedagogical game Juan Carlos Muñoz, Felipe Delgado, Ricardo GiesenSergio Ariztía, Daniel Hernández, Felipe Ortiz and William Phillips Department of Transport Engineering and Logistics Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
  • 2. Santiago, Chile
  • 3. + - + - + - +
  • 4. + - + - + - +
  • 5. + - + - + - +
  • 6. + - + - + - + And so on so forth. Our challenge: keep buses evenly spaced under an inherently unstable systemNow, if we want to prevent bunching from occurring … when is the right time to intervene?
  • 7. Bus bunching Severe problem if not controlled  Most passengers wait longer than they should for crowded buses  Reduces reliability affecting passengers and operators  Affects Cycle time and capacity  Put pressure in the authority for more busesContribution: Control Mechanism to Avoid Bus Bunching!
  • 8. ApproachBased on real-time information (or estimations) about: Bus position. Bus loads. # of Passengers waiting at each stop.We run a rolling-horizon optimization model each time a busreaches a stop or every certain amount of time (e.g. 2 minutes)The model minimizes:Waiting for first bus + Waiting for subsequent buses + time held
  • 9. Results: Simulation Animation Simulation includes events randomness 2 hours of bus operation. 15 minutes “warm-up” period.
  • 10. Encouraging simulation-based resultsExcess waiting drops in over 60%Excess Waiting for first bus drops in 80%Waiting for second bus drops in 90%Comfort inside buses improve significantlyReliability for users improve significantly: waiting twice the averageinterval drops from 1 out of 11 trips, to 1 out of 1250.Cycle time drops by 4% and its variability by 35%
  • 11. Common disobedience rate across drivers Total Waiting Time [Min] 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 HRT, Beta=0,5 9000 Sin Control 8000 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Obedience rate
  • 12. Full disobedience of a set of drivers 16000 15000 14000 Total Waiting Time [Min] 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Deaf Buses from a total of 15 buses
  • 13. Implementation• The first pilot plan consisted in implemnting our holding tool in buses of line 210 of SuBus from Transantiago (Santiago, Chile) along its full path from 7:00 to 9:30 AM.• We chose 24 out of 130 stops to hold buses• One person in each of these 24 stops received text messages (from a central computer) into their cell phones indicating when each bus should depart from the stop.
  • 14. Plan Description
  • 15. Control Points
  • 16. The results were very promisingeven though the conditions were far from ideal
  • 17. Input Data • Trajectories of given GPS data (on a regular day) Trajectories 60 50Kilometers from Terminal 40 30 20 10 0 6:00:00 6:28:48 6:57:36 7:26:24 7:55:12 8:24:00 8:52:48 9:21:36 9:50:24 Time
  • 18. Input Data • The trajectiories traveled by buses can be inferred as: Corrected Trajectories for a typical day 60 50Kilometers from Terminal 40 30 20 10 0 6:00:00 6:28:48 6:57:36 7:26:24 7:55:12 8:24:00 8:52:48 9:21:36 9:50:24 Time
  • 19. Pilot Analysis • Trajectories of our experiment Pilot Corrected Trajectories 60Kilometers from Terminal 50 40 30 20 10 0 6:00:00 6:28:48 6:57:36 7:26:24 7:55:12 8:24:00 8:52:48 9:21:36 9:50:24 Time
  • 20. Pilot Analysis • Again… versus a regular day Corrected Trajectories 60 50Kilometers from Terminal 40 30 20 10 0 6:00:00 6:28:48 6:57:36 7:26:24 7:55:12 8:24:00 8:52:48 9:21:36 9:50:24 Time
  • 21. Main results• Transantiago computes an indicator for regularity based on intervals exceeding twice the expected headway (and for how much). ICR Aproximado PM y TPM (UF) 14 12 Fines due to regularity on that day 10 dropped around 50% 8 6 4 2 0 Piloto1 Prueba8 Prueba9 Prueba10 Prueba11 Prueba12 Prueba13 Prueba14 Prueba15 Prueba16 Prueba17
  • 22. The demand captured by the line grew! • Line 210 captured an extra 20% demand! 106.000 104.000 102.000Demand on All lines 100.000 (pax) 98.000 96.000 94.000 7.400 7.600 7.800 8.000 8.200 8.400 8.600 8.800 Demand for Line 210 (pax)
  • 23. This pilot plan can improve significantly1) GPS errors can be corrected2) Run the Optimization more often (from 3.5 to 2 min)3) Calibrate speeds and arrival rates4) Check data inputs before feeding the systemAnd more importantly:5) Bypass the person at the stop. Communicate to drivers
  • 24. ConclusionsDeveloped a tool for headway control using Holding in real time reachingtime savings of over 50%Extending it to green time extension and boarding limits savings can reachover 60% with only minor impact on car usersHuge improvements in comfort and reliabilityThe tool is fast enough for real time applications. It had been tested successfully in simulations (for the Insurgentes corridor in Mexico city) and in the streets (line 210 in Santiago, Chile) with very promising results.
  • 25. Publications and working papers• Delgado, F., Muñoz, J.C., Giesen, R., Cipriano, A. (2009) Real-Time Control of Buses in a Transit Corridor Based on Vehicle Holding and Boarding Limits. Transportation Research Record, Vol 2090, 55-67• Munoz, J.C. and Giesen, R. (2010). Optimization of Public Transportation Systems. Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Vol 6, 3886-3896.• Delgado, F., J.C. Muñoz and R. Giesen (2012) How much can holding and limiting boarding improve transit performance? Trans Res Part B, , vol.46 (9), 1202-1217• Muñoz, J.C., C. Cortés, F. Delgado, F. Valencia, R. Giesen, D. Sáez and A. Cipriano (2013) Comparison of dynamic control strategies for transit operations. Forthcoming in Trans Res Part C.
  • 26. Pedagogical game
  • 27. Yesterday we submitted a proposal to an innovation grant for US$500,000 (40% committed by a bus operator).The goal is to turn this experience into a commercial tool.
  • 28. For a detailed talk go to our www.brt.cl Webinar
  • 29. Dealing with Bus Bunching A control tool, a pilot plan and a pedagogical game Juan Carlos Muñoz, Felipe Delgado, Ricardo GiesenSergio Ariztía, Daniel Hernández, Felipe Ortiz and William Phillips Department of Transport Engineering and Logistics Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

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