Countries covered under Asia – Bangladesh, China, China Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.
North America share – 34.7% (1995) to 28.2% (2005) Europe and Eurasia share – 43.2 (1995) to 40.8% (2005)
Forecast rationale for the vehicle fleet projections The vehicle fleet projections used in this document were developed by Segment Y Automotive Intelligence Pvt Ltd taking into consideration a number of criteria for each of the emerging markets in Asia. The expected growth in GDP per capita, in population, vehicle density per capita, vehicle density in relation to the road network, segment shifts driven by income and government policy, and acceleration in vehicle scrappage are all important elements in projecting future in-use vehicle populations. Whilst for short term forecasts, vehicle sales are principally driven by the availability of credit, interest rates and fuel prices, other elements require deeper scrutiny over the longer term: GDP per capita development: While the past may not be the best guide for the future, past performance was analyzed together with the projections presented in Goldman Sachs' &quot;Dreaming with BRICs&quot; report to arrive at plausible rates of GDP growth. Population growth and vehicle density per capita: This GDP growth was combined with population growth forecasts based on UN projections and the assumption that as GDP grows, vehicle sales in emerging markets will follow similar trends to those in more developed markets and will rise for at least the next thirty years. The current vehicle density in these emerging markets is still very low; for example, the vehicle density in India is just 7 vehicles per 1000 persons, compared to 550 in Germany. Taking into account interest rates and retail prices, there is a broad correlation between development in GDP and vehicle populations. This applies both to passenger cars and motorcycles. Vehicle density in relation to the road network: Infrastructure is also a driver, and whilst it is hard to predict changes over the long term there are clear pointers to the future, with countries like India and China investing substantially in comparison to, for example, Indonesia or the Philippines. Better roads promote easy of transit and longer drives, which in turn leads to increased vehicle sales, higher mileages and earlier scrapping. Statistics on road networks were obtained from the United Nations Asian Highway Database. Segment shifts driven by income and government policy: The future will see a number of changes in terms of segment shifts, driven by larger incomes, desire for safety and comfort and government regulations. City dwellers in Thailand are increasingly opting for smaller cars, and hence growth in the pickup segment will be more confined to the rural areas, but a lot of growth will come from those parts as the rural to urban gap narrows. The Thai government is also toying with the idea to develop a second pillar of expertise in small cars, to reduce its dependency on oil imports. This will probably also contribute to a shift from pickups to small cars. Income development also drives the shift from two-wheelers to cars. In most Asian countries, the point at which motorcycle sales start tailing off and cars sales increase is at a GDP per capita of around US$ 3,000 per annum. This point is yet to be reached in India and Indonesia, but China is getting close. What will accelerate this trend in China is the tendency to spend more on status symbols, in comparison to Indians for example, which tend to live more frugally. This information is borne out by the sales statistics from the trade associations in the various countries and confirmed by motorcycle companies such as Yamaha and Honda. Acceleration in scrappage: Another factor that is taken into consideration is the accelerated vehicle scrappage as markets mature. The average age in China is currently quite low, as so many vehicles have been added in recent years. The same applies in Indonesia, where record sales in recent years have substantially rejuvenated the current parc. In comparison, the parc in India is much older, as the sales have developed more gradually, and private vehicle ownership prolongs life through better maintenance. Official scrappage statistics in Asia are generally unreliable, as records are not scrupulously maintained, and registered users generally have no incentive to report scrappage. Scrappage rates have therefore been derived from data from the Center for Transportation Analysis at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the US, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders in the UK (SMMT), the Rijwiel- en Automobiel Instelling in the Netherlands (RAI), which is the Dutch equivalent of the SMMT, and the Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA).
The GOOD NEWS is that ambient air concentrations are generally decreasing. The BAD NEWS is that the levels, especially for TSP and PM10 still exceed WHO guidelines. How this improvement can be sustained will depend on the AQM capabilities of the cities.
Capacity to manage air quality is variable in Asia.
Notes: Italics – under discussion a – gasoline b – Diesel c – Entire country d – Delhi and other cities; Euro 2 introduced in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai in 2001; Euro 2 in Bangalore, Hyderabad, Khampur, Pune and Ahmedabad in 2003, Euro 3 to be introduced e – Beijing has adopted Euro 3; Shanghai and Guangzhou has requested the approval of the State Council for implementation of Euro 3 f – Euro 4 for gasoline vehicles and California ULEV standards for diesel vehicles g – Gasoline vehicles under consideration
Top speed of between 20 – 30kph and a range of 25 – 100 km During operation they emit zero local air pollution, but they do use about 2 kWh of electricity per 100 km Power ranges between 200 - 600 W and they take around 6 – 8 hours to charge
Urban Air Quality and its Management in Asia: Status Report 2006 Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia A CAI-Asia Program Regional Dialogue of Air Quality Management Initiatives and Programs in Asia 12 October 2006 Bangkok, Thailand
Vehicle Growth Forecast in Asian Countries (in Millions of Vehicles) Note: Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y Ltd China, P.R. India Thailand Indonesia
PM10 and CO 2 Forecast for China and India Thousand Tons of PM10 Million Tons of CO 2 China, P.R. India Source: ADB, 2006 *Projected PM10 and CO 2 are based on current plans for emission (Euro) standards and fuel efficiency targets in China and India
Emission inventories remain the weak link in AQM in the majority of Asian countries. Emission inventories are often often conducted as part of donor-funded programs and academic researches, only in few cases it is used for government regulatory purposes such as in PRC and Thailand
With the exception of China and Hong Kong, EIs are usually partial and not covering all sources. Mostly mobile sources are covered, less often stationary and seldom area sources
Criteria pollutants (PM, CO, SO2, NOx, HC) are usually covered in the EIs
Most of the emission inventory studies are ad-hoc meaning that they are not repeated on a regular basis which makes trend analysis difficult
Important study which was started recently is the India Clean Air Program which is the most comprehensive effort to develop emission inventory in India yet. However, also this project is an ad-hoc effort and not part of a regularly repeated effort.
Emission Inventories: Methodology and Accuracy
Compiling emission inventories remains a challenge in Asia due to non-standardized source categorization, operating data not systematically tabulated, inaccurate information and no specific reporting requirements
Most studies have used the WHO and US EPA emission factors, requiring a need to evaluate the applicability and representativeness of these numbers to Asian sources and conditions
Comparisons of emissions between different base years are difficult to assess due to differences in methodology (e.g., one year based on emission factors and the next on actual source testing)
Activity data for many categories are usually incomplete and outdated. Most EIs are based on secondary data where erroneous assumptions are taken into consideration thus decreasing reliability of the estimates
Limited information is available on the quality assurance methods used, except in China and Singapore where validations and evaluation of accuracy/uncertainty are being carried out
What if there would be an international body to develop and implement internationally accepted methodology and reporting protocols for emission inventories (i.e., IPCC guidelines for GHGI) ?
Source Apportionment studies are not carried out regularly. Where they are conducted this is mostly by academic institutions and/or institutions outside the Ministries of Environment and the use for policy formulation is limited.
Fair amount of experience is now available with source-receptor techniques both outside and in Asia, but they are not being applied on a routine basis in Asian countries in support of AQ policy making or the evaluation of AQ policy measures.
Example is the IAEA PM characterization studies which after years of piloting have not been taken up by regulatory agencies in the countries where implemented.
The source apportionment studies that are conducted in Asia for PM show large ranges in the sources (mobile, stationary, area, biomass burning). The ranges are so large that they can not be explained by vehicle fleet data.
Only a few countries such as P.R. China, Philippines and Thailand have published the emissions inventory in full however no information is available on the quality assurance methods being implemented.
Source apportionment techniques are not being utilized for validation and improvement of the emissions inventory and enhancement of understanding of the linkages between particular emission sources and ambient air quality.
Turning these data into useful input for decision-making remains an enormous challenge as EIs and SAs are not being utilized in identifying control strategies (rules, enforceability and compliance, voluntary measures, availability of inputs to evaluate control effectiveness).
Policymaking generally based on no-regret policies and not based on detailed emissions inventories and source apportionment which can effectively focus resources on integrated control measures and requirements for the sources most responsible for the resulting poor air quality. Positive exception is P.R. China where SO2 emission inventories are now being used on a routine basis to formulate SO2 control measures.
Ambient air quality in Asia is still generally improving despite continued increase in motorization and energy use
Average ambient TSP, PM10 and SO 2 trends are improving
Average ambient TSP and PM10, however, continue to exceed WHO and USEPA guidelines
Average ambient SO 2 is in compliance with WHO guideline
NO 2 close to guidelines
Insufficient information on O 3 for reliable trend analysis
It is uncertain whether the observed improvements in air quality will be sustained
Aggregated Annual Ambient AQ Trends, g/m 3 (1993 to 2005) Status of Urban Air Quality in Asia WHO (1979) TSP guideline, 60-90 g/m 3 WHO SO 2 guideline, 50 g/m 3 WHO (2005) PM10 guideline, 20 g/m 3 WHO NO 2 guideline, 40 g/m 3
Ambient Air Quality Standards in Asia Remarks Pollutants Country Hourly limits for NO 2 and CO are more lenient than WHO, no PM10 standards, the rest of the standards are almost same as WHO TSP, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , O 3 , Pb Vietnam TSP twice more lenient than USEPA; SO 2 and CO almost same as USEPA limit, stringent NO 2 compared to WHO TSP, PM10, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , O 3 , Pb Thailand TSP standards twice more lenient than USEPA, No annual standard for SO 2 , 24-hour limit for SO 2, a slightly lenient O 3 and NO 2 compared with USEPA and WHO, respectively TSP, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , O 3 , Pb Sri-Lanka Despite adopting only both WHO guidelines and USEPA limits, Singapore PSI reporting is very efficient PM10, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , O 3 Singapore based and comparable to WHO and USEPA (for PM 10 ). Standards more lenient, selecting the higher/max allowable limits TSP, PM10, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , O 3 , Pb Philippines No legislated ambient air quality standards Pakistan Established only in 2003; standards less stringent than WHO; PM limits less stringent than USEPA TSP, PM10, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , Pb, C 6 H 6 Nepal Comparable and to some extent more stringent than WHO guidelines with the exception of CO limits for an 8-hour exposure. CO, NO 2 , O 3 , SO 2, TSP Japan National and local (Jakarta) standards less stringent that WHO; PM limits less stringent than USEPA TSP, PM10, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , O 3 , Pb Indonesia Established based on different land-use categories i.e. industrial, residential and sensitive areas. TSP, PM10, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , Pb India Standards less stringent than WHO and USEPA limits TSP, PM10, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , Pb, O 3 Hong Kong Standards require cities to comply with Class I, II, or III standards. Class I standards more stringent than the WHO and USEPA limits TSP, PM10, CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , Pb China 1997 standards established for a few pollutants depending on land use category; new standards are pending approval TSP, CO, NOx, and SO 2 Bangladesh
With the exception of few countries, most Asian countries do not have immediate and clear plans to expand or upgrade existing AQ monitoring systems
Pakistan has indicated its plans to establish continuous AQ monitoring stations in five major cities in 2007
CPCB in India has established real-time continuous monitoring of pollutants in four locations in Delhi and is now considering expansion of AQ monitoring capacity
The number and location of existing monitoring stations are generally not representative of the population
Programs to ensure the sustainability of operations of AQ monitoring stations and regular maintenance of equipment have caused degradation and inoperability of several AQ monitoring stations in Asian countries such as Indonesia
Roadside particulate levels are always higher than ambient confirming that vehicles are major PM source
Increased number of policies on mobile sources (e.g. fuel quality and stricter emission standards) can help to close the gap between ambient and roadside levels
Roadside versus Ambient Particulate Matter Concentrations
Benchmarking Air Quality Management Capabilities in Asia
The Benchmarking study involved 20 cities in Asia representing various economic levels and geographic coverage.
The cities were categorized according to four AQM capability indices – 1) AQ measurement; 2) data availability and assessment; 3) emission estimates; and 4) AQ management enabling capacity.
Cities with high levels of economic development tend to have well-developed AQM systems
Benchmarking of AQM capability can assist cities in setting priorities and developing strategies for strengthening their AQM capability
Increased urbanisation, mobilization and industrialisation. Only ad hoc AQM.
Deterioration of air quality through rising levels of air pollution
Urbanisation, industrialisation and mobilisation continued. Initial systematic AQM procedures applied
High but stabilising levels of air pollution. Serious health and environmental impacts
Cleaner processes developed. Systematic AQM procedures developed
Air pollution decreasing from high levels
Maturing of cleaner processes, use of cleaner fuels and mature emission controls.
Further improvement of air quality
High technology applied
Low air pollution
Level of Economic Development/ Trends of Air Pollution - 0-20 Minimal Dhaka, Kathmandu 21-30 Limited II Hanoi, Surabaya 31-40 Limited I Colombo 41-50 Moderate II Ho Chi Minh, Jakarta, Kolkata, Manila, Mumbai 51-60 Moderate I New Delhi 61-70 Good II Beijing, Busan 71-80 Good I Bangkok, Seoul, Shanghai 81-90 Excellent II Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei, Tokyo 91-100 Excellent I Cities AQM Capability Scoring AQM Capability
Compared to five years ago, more Asian countries have now adopted or have legislated plans to adopt stricter vehicle emissions standards as well as fuel standards
Emphasis has been on institutionalizing new vehicle emissions standards and not enough attention has been given in addressing emissions from in-use vehicles
More attention has been given as well to light-duty vehicles compared to heavy duty vehicles
One of the most pressing problem of Asian countries is the rapid increase in the motorcycle fleet but not enough attention has been given towards appropriate regulatory measures to control the associated emissions
Vehicle Emissions Standards
Vehicle Emissions Standards (new light duty vehicles) Source: CAI-Asia, 2006 Italics – under discussion a – gasoline b – diesel c – Entire country d – Delhi and other cities; Euro 2 introduced in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai in 2001; Euro 2 in Bangalore, Hyderabad, Khampur, Pune and Ahmedabad in 2003, Euro 3 to be introduced e – Beijing and Guangzhou (as of 01 September 2006) have adopted Euro 3 standards; Shanghai has requested the approval of the State Council for implementation of Euro 3 f – Euro 4 for gasoline vehicles and California ULEV standards for diesel vehicles g – Gasoline vehicles under consideration
Land-use planning, perhaps the most powerful regulatory tool that can be used to address vehicular emissions, is still seldom used by most Asian countries
Governments and development institutions have started to place an increasing emphasis on urban transportation issues, particularly on public transportation
International organizations have acknowledged the direct relationship between climate change mitigation and the promotion of public transportation and have initiated several projects on this
Several countries in Asia have now started to develop sustainable urban transportation policies promoting public transportation, i.e. Bus-rapid transit
In China, the Vice Minister of Construction, Qui Baoxing, has ordered city authorities to improve and maintain cycling facilities and in to order to restore the country’s title as the "kingdom of bicycles"
Paradigm shift in urban & transportation planning (1) The 6-lane Cheonggyecheon highway will soon be transformed into a riverscape Seoul - Asia’s Big Dig
Nihonbashi, one of the main historic areas in Tokyo sits oppressed under an eight-lane expressway
It was once the point from which distances in Japan were measured
A government project is now looking at ways to restore Nihonbashi’s old look
The recommendation is to transfer 2km of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway underground and create space along the river for waterside life
The committee looking at this issue believe that restoring the Nihonbashi area's cityscape to its original state serves as a basic guideline for urban renewal plans to be put together in the future
Paradigm shift in urban & transportation planning (2)
Bus Rapid Transit in Asia Systems in operation (16): Systems in planning or under construction (25): “ Overall, more cities are now planning or building BRT systems in Asia than cities planning or constructing subway or light rail lines” Note: List as of October 2006 Jakarta, Indonesia Kanazuwa, Japan Kunming, China Miyazaki, Japan Nagaoka, Japan Nagoya, Japan Nigata, Japan Seoul, South Korea Shijiazhuang, China Taipei,China Akita, Japan Ankara, Turkey Beijing, China Fukuoka, Japan Gifu, Japan Hangzhou, China Huai’an, China Hyderabad, India Incheon, South Korea Jinan, China Karachi, Pakistan Makati City, Philippines Metro Manila, Philippines Pune, India Shanghai, China Shengyan, China Surabaya, Indonesia T’aichung, China T’ainan, China Tienjing, China Wuhan, China Xi’an, China Xiamen, China Ahmedabad, India Bangalore, India Bangkok, Thailand Chengdu, China Chongqing, China Colombo, Sri-Lanka Delhi, India Guangzhou, China
Both China, P.R. and India have developed policies that call for the integration of transport system plans with urban development, equitable allocation of road space and increased investments on public transportation, including BRT, rail and non-motorized transportation:
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Guideline states that the 11th Five-Year Plan of China, P.R. which started in 2006 will prioritize the development of public transportation with mass rapid transit (MRT) as a key transport mode in mega cities.
The 2006 Indian National Urban Transport Policy vision is to “recognize that people occupy center-stage in our (Indian) cities and all plans would be for their common benefit and well being” i.e., invest on more on transport systems that encourage greater use of public transport and non-motorized modes instead of personal motor vehicles
Emphasis have been on gasoline vehicle conversions to run on CNG in the past
A trend towards replacing diesel-fed public transportation modes with CNG is being adopted by several Asian countries
Several Asian countries, like Pakistan, India, and Indonesia have aggressively adopted measures to convert their existing 2-stroke rickshaws to CNG
Number of NGVs in selected Asian countries Source: Asian NGV Communications, Vol 1 Num 6, August 2006 223 140 14,433 14,796 Thailand 18,300 18,300 Malaysia 14,507 1,205 10,984 27,605 Japan 3 1023 22,178 42,178 Bangladesh 32,369 10,146 Buses 100 66,440 127,120 China 207,000 248,000 India 1,000,000 Pakistan Trucks Cars Total Country
China and India are now the world’s third and fourth producers of ethanol in the world and accounted for a combined 5.4 billion liters in 2004
As of July 2006, gasohol use in Thailand (E10) reached 3.5 million liters daily and available at 3,000 pump stations nationwide– a government mandate in 2007 will require the complete replacement of benzene octane 95 (petrol 95) with E10 and E20 blend will be introduced in 2009
The Philippines is considering to mandate E5 gasoline by 2007 and to E10 by 2010
Biodiesel production have increased in Asia, particularly in Southeast Asia in the past years, with Malaysia and Indonesia leading the production of palm oils worldwide
The Philippines and Thailand have adopted policies that could lead to mandating as much as 10% of biodiesel blend in marketed fuel
The Philippines have already mandated a 1% blend of coco-methyl ester in diesel for government vehicles
Sources: ADB, 2006; and http://thailand.prd.go.th/the_pm_view.php?id=1621
Although countries in Asia have Industrial Emission Standards in place, their implementation and monitoring is generally weak and needs to be strengthened
Compliance to stationary standards is hindered by lack of access to resources allowing for investments in pollution control, low level of technology, non-availability of trained personnel, and the unwillingness of management to invest in environmental protection
Many countries have substantial number of small and medium-sized industries interspersed in residential areas making it more difficult to monitor and regulate these sources
The Philippine Outsourcing Sampling Project showed:
49% of the 795 stacks reported failed the CAA standard for at least one parameter
Sources firing heavy bunker fuel oil are exceeding the SO2 and PM emission limits
Gensets (compression engines) are exceeding the NOx emission limit
Solid fuel-fired units are exceeding the CO emission limit
% distribution of parameters failed by the sources sampled
While international roadmaps for vehicular emissions are in place, stationary sources standards are not readily available for comparison thus absence of roadmaps makes it difficult to promote stricter standards.
With the exception of the UNEP GERIAP (which has ended), there are very few regional initiatives and programs on stationary sources compared to mobile sources which have resulted in lesser exchanges and policy-dialogues
Reduction of air pollution from stationary sources in Asia are still mostly "end-of-pipe" treatments:
tightening emission standards for stationary sources,
Mandatory use of clean fuel
Monitoring and inspection systems
Relocation of polluting industries
There is no comprehensive policy on fuels for stationary sources but there is an emerging trend on use of low-sulfur coal, specifically in China, but actions to reduce sulfur content of bunker oil are still largely absent and there are few regulatory or financial incentives for industry to invest in sulfur-emissions abatement
Emissions trading – pilot projects have been implemented in China but there are no indications that this will be a major control instruments for stationary sources in the next 5-10 years in Asia
The availability of carbon financing through the CDM has created especially in for stationary sources a new opportunity to accelerate industries’ acceptance of efficiency investments. This has sparked off:
Improved (base-line) monitoring of emissions
Structural shifts to new, less energy-intensive industrial products
Reducing the energy intensity of existing industrial production through process changes and optimizing industrial energy systems.
Although China, India, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia all increasingly rely on coal and oil for electricity, they have also all established national goals to increase renewable energy and improve energy efficiency.
In the 11th Five-year plan, SO2 emission reduction is the emphasis of air pollution prevention and control and states that the emissions of sulfur dioxide should be reduced by 10% by 2010
The three principal components of existing SO2 emissions control policy are:
Pollution Levy System (PLS), which is based on the polluter pays principle
Two Control Areas (TCA), is not an instrument like the pollution levy for affecting abatement behavior, but rather a means for prioritizing SO2 control efforts, designating the standards, and identifying cities and regions that should receive extra attention and resources from the national government
Total Emissions Control (TEC) limits the polluters to discharge under a specified level and levies the charge when any pollution is discharged
China has been engaged in sweeping energy policy reforms over the last two decades to promote energy efficiency and conservation. Measures taken include the following: reductions in fossil fuel subsidies; research, development and demonstration projects; a national information network with efficiency service and training centers; tax reforms; equipment standards; and special loan programs, among other initiatives. These measures represent emission savings equal to nearly the entire U.S. transportation sector, about 400 million tons per year.
There are promising areas for application of cobenefits in Asia (e.g. power generation, industrial energy use, sustainable transport and household energy use)
Countries have started to acknowledge that the cobenefits approach to urban air quality management and climate change mitigation will provide substantial local and global benefits in the long and short-term
There is an emerging consortium of organization working on cobenefits – (e.g. IGES, OECC, USEPA, CARB, etc) and develop joint programs and activities to further develop and apply the co-benefits framework in Asia
Finally: ……. Court Case in Lahore for AQ Improvement
A public interest environmental litigation was filed against vehicular air pollution at the Lahore High Court in 1997 and in 2003, the case was re-opened by Justice Sair Ali of the Lahore High Court and took it as a high priority concern
The LAHORE CLEAN AIR COMMISSION (LCAC) was subsequently created, composed of lawyers, EPD, City Government, Punjab Government, City Mayor (Nazim), environmental scientists and civil society members, and tasked to prepare a report to control emissions from mobile sources
A national workshop on UAQM was organized in December 2004 that included international experts from all over the world to assist in the formulation of the solutions and measures called for by the Court
The set of measures identified in the workshop was submitted to the High Court and scheduled for implementation
2-stroke rickshaws have now been banned in several areas in the city and air quality is reported to have improved
Diesel fuelled public transport vehicles are to be banned