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  • Renewable Energy in Europe - past and Future First International workshop on oil depletion July 24, 2002 Uppsala Dr. Werner Zittel, L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH, Germany - Present energy situation - Development over the past decade and trend extrapolations - Renewables and transport sector
  • Renewable Energy in Europe - past and Future
    • Most official energy forecasts extrapolate „business as usual scenarios“
    • If no structural problem in conventional energy supply is perceived, there is no need
    • to change to renewable fuels
    • Under present economic conditions renewable energy sources are uneconomic or marginally economic (neglecting external costs and subsidies of fossil and nuclear fuels)
    • However, if climate change is a real issue, if nuclear has serious problems and if
    • oil becomes a scarce commodity, economic conditions will change in favor of renewable energy technologies
  • 80 Mbpd Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2000 Fuel: 2020-share TPES 13500 oil 39 % gas 26 % coal 25 % nuclear 5 % solar 5 % Renewables and the Energy Sector 90 Mbpd 75 Mbpd
  • Renewables and the Energy Sector - a different view
    • If oil production will peak soon, this will have serious consequences on
    • economy and energy prices
    • In contrast to 1980, energy efficiency as well as renewable energy is at
    • a much more sophisticated technological and economic level
    • which allows for market introduction on a broad scale
    • The future will show which perspective is closer to reality.
    • It is not unlikely that future energy supply develops like the following:
  • 80 Mbpd : BP Statistical Review of World Energy : LBST most likely forecast 2020: IEA LBST TPES 13500 12500 oil 39 % 25 % gas 26 % 33 % coal 25 % 14 % nuclear 5 % 5% solar 5 % 23 % Renewables and the Energy Sector - a differentl view! 90 Mbpd 75 Mbpd
  • How much oil is left for Europe
    • If oil production peaks soon, the oil consumption
    • pattern has to balance the supply
    • If any region in the world requests more oil this is on the expense
    • of any other region
    • Concerning the lessons from the 1980ies, Europe has learned to
    • keep its oil consumption almost constant
    • Concerning the last decade, renewable energy has started its market
    • introduction in Europe. Average growth rates were far above
    • 10 percent p.y. for most renewables
  • Mto Average growth 1975-2000: 1 % p.y. World oil consumption ROW North America EU-15 +0.5 % - 2 % +1.6 % +0.8 % +0.8 % +0.4 % How much oil is left for Europe?
  • EU-15 End use energy requirement and oil dependence
    • The industry learned from the 1970ies oil crises
    • to reduce its energy consumption
    • Only the transport sector grew steadily over the last 40 years
    • The share of electricity on final energy supply is rising
    • The transport sector is most vulnerable to oil supply disruptions
    • The whole industry depends on cheap transport („just in time“ is
    • cheaper than large store houses)
  • EU-15 End use energy requirement and oil dependence other Industry transport Source: OECD Mtoe electricity Industry Transport Other renewable other electricity oil
  • EU-15 Electricity Production from Wind energy
    • In the 1980ies, Denmark started to establish a wind energy industry
    • Today the Danish wind energy industry has more employees than the
    • ship building industry
    • In the 1990ies, Germany supported the wind energy industry by feed-in ruels [Renewable Energy Act] which gave marginal earnings (at favorable sites and with good planning the return on investment is reasonable, at poor sites or with poor management the return on investment is negative)
    • Most European Countries have not yet even started to use its wind energy potentials
    • Even under „poor“ economic conditions wind energy has growth rates at about
    • 40 percent p.y. since more than a decade. Even today the share of wind energy in electricity generation is above 1 %.
    • As soon as even pure market economics are in favor of wind energy, the growth
    • rates could enhance and swap over to those countries with vast resources
  • GWh el Growth Rate 1990-2000: ~ 40 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2000: ~ 2500 TWh EU-15 Electricity Production from Wind energy
  • EU-15:Power Plant Capacity - Wind energy vs Nuclear
    • In 2001 Europe added wind capacity which was four times as much as that of an average nuclear plant.
    • The electricity generated in 2002 will be more than that of four nuclear power plants
    • The growth of wind energy is as fast as the growth of nuclear power 30 years ago
    • Planning times of new wind parks are in the range of 2 - 3 years before grid connection is achieved
  • EU-15:Power Plant Capacity - Wind energy vs Nuclear March 1999 MW/a Annual Growth Source: World Watch Institute, 1999 Installed Capacity MW Additon of new wind capacity Installed wind capacity France UK Germany Sweden Spain Installed nuclear capacity in Europe
  • EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast
    • The European Wind Energy Association expects wind energy to contribute
    • about 5 % of EU-15 electricity supply until 2010 and above 10 percent until 2020. This is euqivalent to 20 % annual growth
    • The actual growth rate is even higher
  • MW Growth Rate 1990-2000: ~ 40 % p.a. 20 % p.a. 40 % p.a. EWEA- Forecast 2000 Onshore offshore Share on EU-Electricity Production 5 % EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast
  • EU-15 Electricity Production from Biomass
    • Sweden, Finland and Austria have the largest share of biomass in
    • electricity production
    • The growth rate in Finland was about 10 % annually
    • The share of biomass in electricity generation is about 0.8 percent
  • GWh el Growth Rate 1991-1998: ~ 7 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2000: ~ 2500 TWh Austria Finland (10 % p.a.) Sweden EU-15 Electricity Production from Biomass Source: OECD Statistics 2000
  • GWh el Growth Rate 1991-1998: ~ 7 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2000: ~ 2500 TWh 10 % p.a. 7 % p.a. 20 % p.a. EU-15 Electricity Production from Biomass - Forecast Share on EU-Electricity Production 5 %
  • EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics
    • The growth of PV was largest in Germany over the last decade (~ 30 %) Since the existence of the feed-in law in 1999 the growth rate increased strongly
    • Today, installed PV capacity in Germany is at the same level as wind energy was
    • ten years ago
    • The costs of grid connected PV systems have reduced by a factor of three over the
    • last 15 years and today are close to 0.6 EUR/kWh
    • Presetnly, BP alone employs more than 1000 employees in the PV business
  • GWh el Growth Rate 1991-2000: ~ 20-30 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2000: ~ 2500 TWh Germany PV-Share on Electricity Production in 2001: ~ 0,009 % EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics
  • EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics - Forecast
    • BP expects to reduce costs by another factor of two within next five years
    • Shell expects annual cost reductions by 5 - 6 percent
    • Swiss bank Sarassin expects the growth rate of PV to increase substantially over
    • the next few years (comparable to the cellular phone or PC market in the last years)
    • If the growth rate over the next ten years is the same as the growth rate of wind
    • energy over the past ten years, PV will contribute more than 1 percent to
    • EU electricity in 2010
  • GWh el Growth Rate 1991-2000: ~ 20-30 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2000: ~ 2500 TWh 40 % p.a. 20 % p.a. Share on EU-Electricity Production 5 % 50 % p.a. EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics - Forecast Share on EU-Electricity Production 1 %
  • EU-15 Electricity Production from Geothermal Energy
    • Electricity production from geothermal grew about 3 percent annually
    • Today only Portugal, France and Italy use geothermal electricity
    • New methods (e.g. hot-dry rock; ORC electricity generation) open a huge
    • potential for electricity generation
    • The Geothermal Society expects electricity generation from geothermal
    • sources at 16 TWh in 2010 and between 24 - 64 TWh in 2020 (Ferrara-
    • Declaration 1999)
  • GWh el Growth Rate 1991-2000: ~ 3 % p.a. EU-Electricity Production 2000: ~ 2500 TWh Italy Geothermal-Share on Electricity Production 2000: ~ 0,17 % Portugal Growth Rate 1991-1998: ~ 30 % p.a. 3 % p.a. 5 % p.a. EU-15 Electricity Production from Geothermal Energy
  • EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables
    • Today Renewable Electricity supply has a share of 14 - 15 percent
    • If present trends continue for the next 20 years, this share will increase
    • to more than 20 percent in 2010 and to more than 50 percent in 2020
    • (provided total electricity supply will remain constant; note that this holds even when hydro is kept constant and when wind energy will rise at half of
    • its historical growth rate)
    • If trends of „best practice countries“ apply to all EU countries this share could rise even faster
  • TWh el Hydro 0 % p.a. Wind 20 % p.a. Biomass 7 % p.a. Solar 20 %p.a. Geothermal 3 %p.a. TWh el Hydro 0 % p.a. Wind 20 % p.a. Biomass 10 % p.a. Solar 40 %p.a. Geothermal 30 %p.a. EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables EU-Electricity Production 2000: ~ 2500 TWh Trend extrapolation Trend extrapolation from „best practice“ countries
  • EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Biomass
    • Contribution of biomass to thermal energy supply is about 6 %.
    • The annual growth rate varies between 2 - 5 percent annually
    • At present growth rate this could increase to 10-20 percent in 2020
  • GWh th Growth Rate 1991-1998: ~ 2 % p.a. Thermal End Use Energy Demand: ~ 6000 TWh Sweden 4-5 % p.a. 5 % p.a. Growth Rate Share on EU Themal Energy Demand 10 % 10 % p.a. Growth Rate 2 % p.a. Growth Rate EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Biomass
  • EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Solar Energy
    • Average growth rate of Solar thermal energy use is about 10 % annually
    • In Greece Solar thermal energy has a much higher share
    • than in Italy, Portugal or Spain with comparable
    • solar isolation. This is mainly due to different political support
    • The contribution in 2020 could rise to between 0.5 - 3 % if present trends continue (lower figure 10 % annual growth rate, upper figure 20 % annually)
  • GWh th Growth Rate 1991-2000: ~ 10 % p.a. Solar Share on Thermal End Use Energy Supply 2001: ~ 0,08 % Thermal End Use Energy Demand EU 2000: ~ 6000 TWh Growth Rate in Germany 1991-2000: ~ 20 % p.a. Growth Rate in Austria 1991-2000: 15 % p.a. Greece 2001-Zahlen: LBST-Schätzung mit BRD-Zahlen aus SW&T1/02 EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Solar Energy
  • The Potential of Renewable Energy in the European Community
    • At the present growth rate, renewable energy will rise to a share of about 10 percent of thermal energy use in 2020
    • At growth rates applicable to „best practice“ countries the share could rise to about 20 - 25 %
    • On the other hand: Thermal energy is mainly used in buildings
    • where in general the highest potential for increased efficiency exists
  • The Potential of Renewable Energy in the European Community Biomasse 5% p.a. Solar 20 %p.a. Geothermie 10 % p.a. TWh th Biomass 2 % p.a. Solar 10 %p.a. Geothermal 3 %p.a. EU-thermal energy demand 2000: ~ 6000 TWh
  • Technical Potentials of Renewable Energy Sou rc e s in the EU
    • The potential for biomass includes only biogenic waste, residues and sludge
    • The wind power potential minimum includes offshore sites up to 10 km distance from cost line and 10 m water depth
    • The wind power potential maximum includes offshore sites up to 30 km
    • distance from cost line and 30 m water depth
    • The PV potential minimum includes only roof mounted solar cells
    • The PV potential maximum includes facade mounted modules
    • The Solar Thermal potential includes only sites south of 40 °
  • Forest Residue Industrial Wood Res. Lower Value Upper Value Wind onshore Wind offshore Straw Residue * * still to tap potential in the EU ** only EU ** Agriculture Bio Waste Sludge conventional Tidal Power Biogas (Methane) Biomass Wind Power TWh/a EU Electricity Consumption 1998: 2.468 TWh (Source: IEA 2000) (Biomass: Thermal Energy; Hydro Power, Wind, PV und SOT: Electric Energy) Technical Potentials of Renewable Energy Sources in the EU Wood Residues, other PV Roof mounted Roof mounted + house fronts with todays technology Technological Progress
  • * still to tap potential in the EU ** only EU Sludge EU- oil consumption in Transport and scenario for future reductions
    • Assumption:
    • Each year ten percent of cars are replaced
    • The average fuel consumption of new cars reduces by x percent with respect to the preceeding year
    • In Germany the average fuel consumption of all passenger cars
    • grew from 8.1 l/100km in 1960 to ~10 l/100km in 1975; it was
    • almost constant until 1985 and reduced to 9.4 l/100 km in 1990
    • and to ~8.5 l/100 km in 2000. However most of this was offset by
    • higher traveling volumes.
  • Mto Assumptions - Average life time of cars 10 years - each year fossil fuel consumption of all new cars decreases by x % X=0.5 % X=1 % X=5 % X=2 % Fuel consumption of new cars in 2020 with respect to 2000 fuel consumption 37 % 67 % 82 % 90 % Oil consumption of Traffic EU- oil consumption in Transport and scenario for future reductions
  • Future fuels for cars Renewable Fuel: - hydrogen - electricity - Biofuels Future Challanges: - reduction of demand - change of mode (modal split) - downsizing of cars - hybrid vehicles - switch to renewable fuel
  • TWh/a (Transport) 1998 * Road Transport Aviation Rail Transport Inland Navigation Wood and Straw Residues *Source: IEA-Statistics 1997-1998 Via Biogas Biogas (Methane) Hydrogen (pressurized) Methanol Synfuel Plant Oil Ethanol from Lignocellulose Cultivation (fast growing plants) Potentials show possible alternatives and cannot be added. Available area for cultivation of energy plants in the EU: 3,3 - 26,4 Mio ha Technical Potentials: Fuels derived from Biomass in the EU - range
    • Comments on the available area for cultivation for the growing of energy plants:
    • The upper value (26.4 Mio ha) assumes an increased intensification of agricultural production (FfE 1998).
    • A further intensification of agricultural production is not sustainable. Therefore the EU aims at extensification.
    • Oil plants: The share of rape seed may not exceeed 25% within the rotation cycle of a given crop. With biological agriculture method this limit is lower.
    • An assignment of 26.4 Mio ha to the growing of energy plants would represent 30% of the arable land in the EU
    • The area not cultivated (laid off) at present has a size of about 7.2 Mio ha (FfE 1998).
    Technical Potentials: Fuels Derived from Biomass in the EU
  • TWh/a (Transport) 1998 * Road transport Aviation Rail transport Inland navigation Wood and straw residues *Source: IEA-Statistics 1997-1998 Via Biogas Biogas (Methane) Hydrogen (pressurized) Methanol Synfuel Plant Oil Ethanol from Lignocellulose Cultivation (fast growing plants) Potentials show possible alternatives and cannot be added. Cultivable area for energy plants in the EU: 7.2 Mio ha Technical Potentials: Fuels Derived from Biomass in the EU - probable
  • Technical Potentials: Fuels Derived from Renewable Electricity (EU) Warning: The folowing technical potential does not take care of alternative use of the renewable source.
  • Technical Potentials: Fuels Derived from Renewable Electricity (EU) Wind on-shore Wind off-shore 1) Source: IEA-Statistics 1997-1998 2) still to tap potential 3) within the EU Road transport Aviation Inland navigation Rail transport Hydro power 2) PV (roofs) Solar thermal power stations 3) Consumption (Transport) 1998 1) CGH 2 LH 2 Methanol
  • Hydrogen / Methanol: Green-House-Gas Emissions (CO 2 -Equivalents)
  • Hydrogen / Methanol: Fuel Costs
  • Fuel Costs and GHG Emissions of Compressed Gaseous Hydrogen (EU) 0 100 200 300 0 1 2 3 4 Costs [EUR/ l gasoline equivalent ] CO 2 - equivalent [g/kWh] gasoline / diesel without With tax CGH 2 from ... Biomass Hydro Windpower offshore Solarthermal Source: LBST, 2001 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
  • Summary
    • The growth of renewables in Europe was different in all countries due to
    • different political support
    • Simple trend extrapolation exhibits that at present growth rates
    • more than 20 percent of electricity will be renewable in 2010.
    • This share would rise to about 50 percent in 2020
    • Even in countries supporting renewables they are still close to
    • „ being marginally economic“. As soon as market economics change (e.g. by passing oil peak production) the growth rates could enhance
    • The potential is sufficient to ensure a 100 percent renewable energy supply
    • The transport sector will be hit strongest by oil scarcity. Introduction of
    • new fuels is most difficult here
    • The future will show which growth rates will be realised and which energy
    • mix will be achieved
    • Detailled strategies exist how to substitute fossil and nuclear fuels completely
    • by 2050 [e.g. EU financed LTI-Study 1998]