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  • Commercial! BP Solar is the world’s largest fully-integrated solar electric company BP Solar is positioned for growth Combination of the world’s leading solar companies in July last year - $170 Million turnover last year and will be into $200s this year Manufacturing plants in US, Spain, India, Australia Module assembly plants in Saudi, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Hong Kong Product sold in 160 countries 20% of global market share Solar important business stream within BP Easy to see why – growth rates which other energy sectors can only dream of!
  • Transcript

    • 1. Photovoltaic Technology: Status and Trends Presentation to the First NREL Energy Analysis Forum Golden, CO August 13, 2001
    • 2. BP Solar Locations Manufacturing & Sales Sales Modules & Sales
    • 3. Solar Electricity Now
      • Economically driven global off-grid market
      • Policy driven grid markets in Europe, Asia, and California; residential applications dominate.
      • Catalog modules – glass and aluminum
      • High reliability, long life well established
      • Well known systems art – still relatively few practitioners in many countries and most US states
      • Visually differentiated BIPV applications
      • First wave of distributed generation revolution
      • First tier manufacturers concerned with mega-plants and silicon supply issues
      • Sales network evolution driven by emerging grid markets
      • Crystalline remains the workhorse of the industry
    • 4. Solar Electricity 2010
      • High market entry barriers
      • Economically driven global market structured to exploit value of renewables and distributed generation
      • Solar is implicit element of building design
      • Catalog solar electric building materials
      • Element of roofing, glazing and building electrical systems, with visual impact optional
      • On-site electricity properly valued and traded in competitive electricity markets
      • Front end manufacturing concentrated in small number of companies
      • Sales network includes energy solutions companies
      • Thin film becoming the workhorse of the industry
    • 5. The Global Solar Electricity Market Grid Connected Relies on government support Remote Industrial Fully commercial Remote Rural Depends on government policy Consumer Power Fully commercial Source Strategies Unlimited, April 2000
    • 6. PV Market Growth Expectations
    • 7. US Market Status and Trends
      • Positive
        • Public acceptance/demand for solar remains high.
        • Off-grid markets remain strong.
        • Resistance to net metering is waning.
        • Increasing PV industry recognition of need for more complete offers including kitting, system level warranty, performance information,and financing.
      • Negative
        • Share of global market is shrinking.
        • Lack of retail sales infrastructure
        • Lack of trained and interested installers in many regions
        • Dream of holistic national program strategy is dying
    • 8. US Regional Characteristics & Drivers
      • California is the best near-term opportunity due to rising power costs, reduced power availability, good sun, and aggressive incentives
      • US Electricity Marketplace
        • Deregulation – Consumer Choice, Green Energy Marketing
        • Increasing Demand led by Telecom and Computers
        • Electric Rate Inflation over next 10 years (California, Arizona)
        • Compensation for Power at Retail Electric Rates (Net Metering)
      • Federal Incentives
        • 10% Federal Tax Credit
        • 5-year Accelerated Depreciation
        • 42% capital tax benefit over first 5 years
      • Aggressive state government, regulatory, and utility incentives
        • 17 State Renewable Energy Funds – $2 billion from 2001-2012
        • Arizona, California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
        • Source: Jigar Shah, BP Solar
    • 9. Cumulative Installed PV in the US
    • 10. Opportunities
      • Rooftop Solar Electricity:
      • Off-sets high cost peak and intermediate power
      • Off-sets need for transmission and distribution upgrades.
      • Off-sets emissions from existing fuel based power plants
      • Provides high “R” value equivalent insulating effect vs. solar heat gain.
      • Shields roof from UV exposure, extending roof life (1kW of solar typically requires 125 to 250 square feet of roof space).
      • Has zero price risk (cf. price volatility of traditional fuels used to generate electricity).
      • Requires minimal maintenance over a 20-30 year design life.
      • Modules have high resale value, up to 70% after 5 years and 50% after 10 years.
      • Creates in-state jobs vs. balance of trade deficits
    • 11. Rooftop Solar Economics
    • 12. Barriers (and Recommended Policy Response)
      • Policies that make it happen:
      • Net metering for all system sizes with no standby charges
      • Simple, uniform and convenient interconnection standards
      • Encourage development of retail sales, installation and service infrastructure via:
        • Rebates, financing and/or value-based power purchase offers to consumers and companies investing in solar
        • Education, training, and other assistance.
      • Enhance public awareness and education.
      • Regulatory permission to aggregate rooftop solar electricity for resale to other consumers
      • Purchase of solar electricity and/or on-site solar generation for state facilities.
      • Exemption from sales and use taxes.
    • 13. Immediate Issues
      • US market
        • California electricity crisis – aberration or preview?
        • Opportunistic vs. strategic attention by major players
      • US Technology Opportunities
        • Thin film
        • Building materials
      • US Program
        • One dimensional (R&D).
          • Option 1. Understand and communicate relationship between kWh price and value (to US, state, community, utility and consumer).
          • Option 2. Incentivize currently cost-effective markets.