Peak Oil Models to help understand peak oil
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  • Peak + Hubbert’s predictions

Peak Oil Models to help understand peak oil Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Peak Oil Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006
  • 2. Some Basics Lower 48 +Alaska US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html
  • 3. Many Countries Have Peaked! http://www.bp.com/genericsection.do?categoryId=92&contentId=7005893 US UK Indonesia Iran? Venezuela
  • 4. Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)
  • 5. OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates
  • 6. Gaussian
  • 7. Gaussian Fit to US Production
  • 8. USGS and Cumulative Production
  • 9. Hubbert’s Logistic Curve 1980 Prediction “ Economic” argument: We will always find more and increase ultimate recovered amount = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ ) dQ dt
  • 10. Problem with Logistic Curves At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar. There are too many free fitting parameters
  • 11. The Point Remains …
  • 12. Hubbert Linearization http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568 Q (Gbbl) P = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ )
  • 13. HL - Texas http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/
  • 14. HL – US 48
  • 15. HL – Saudi Arabia
  • 16. HL - World
  • 17. US Geological Survey Estimates Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002) www.ihs.com
  • 18. Rough Outline of the Future
    • USGS published reserve estimates in 1998
    • EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth
    • A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2025
    • Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources
  • 19. Creaming Curves
  • 20. One Prediction (1998) R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8 , 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
  • 21. Duncan and Youngquist Predictions 13 countries Predicted to peak after 2005 11 countries Actually peaked between 1998-2005 2 countries Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peaked 16 countries Predicted to peak 1998-2005 0 countries Recovered from peak after 1997 14 countries Peaked prior to 1997
  • 22. Finding Norways R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
  • 23. Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert” 2/3 !
  • 24. Peak Models BP USGS
  • 25. A Brief History of Oil
  • 26. Keep Watching… http://www.theoildrum.com
  • 27. Peak “Good” Oil OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005