IRAN and the North: An Introduction to

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  • Selling your ideas is challenging. First, you must get your listeners to agree with you in principle. Then, you must move them to action. Use the Dale Carnegie Training® Evidence – Action – Benefit formula, and you will deliver a motivational, action-oriented presentation.
  • IRAN and the North: An Introduction to

    1. 1. IRAN and the North: An Introduction to Iran’s Interactions with Caspian, Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus Abbas Maleki Presented in a workshop in Center for Strategic Research, Tehran, August, 2004.
    2. 2. 1-Iran and the Caspian K l e i n e r Ka u k a s u s Donez Volga Volga Ural Ural Emba Torgai Tobol Syrdarja Amudarja K r u a a k m - K a n a l Karakum - Kanal Atrak Murgab Don Chopjor M e d w e d i z a Don Kura Kura Safid Rüd Arax Arax Murat Kuban Kuban Dijla Dijla Dicle Urmiasee Vansee Sewan Aral Sea Kara- Bogas- Gol SEA CASPEAN BLACK SEA ASOV SEA K o p e t d a g K y y l k u m K a r a k u m S O U T H E R N U R A L E l b u r s H i g h l a n d o f I r a n Z a g r o s C u c a a s u s AFGHANISTAN TURKMENISTAN UZBEKISTAN AZER- BAIJAN I R A N I R A Q R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N K A Z A K H S T A N T U R K E Y GEORGIA U K R A I N E ARMENIA Dagestan Republic Kalmyc Republic Astrakhan district TEHERAN ERIWAN TIFLIS BAKU ASHGABAD 0 500 km Z
    3. 3. Caspian Region: Basic Data
    4. 4. Shares of the World
    5. 5. Caspian Oil and Gas Resources <ul><li>OIL Low estimate High estimate </li></ul><ul><li>Azerbaijan 39 billion bbls 44.5 billion bbls </li></ul><ul><li>Kazakhstan 101 billion bbls 109.6 billion bbls </li></ul><ul><li>Turkmenistan 38.5 billion bbls 39.7 billion bbls </li></ul><ul><li>Iran 0.1 billion bbls </li></ul><ul><li>NATURAL GAS </li></ul><ul><li>Azerbaijan 35 Tcf 65 Tcf </li></ul><ul><li>Kazakhstan 88.3 Tcf 153.3 Tcf </li></ul><ul><li>Turkmenistan 158.9 Tcf 229.9 Tcf </li></ul><ul><li>Iran 0 Tcf 10.6 Tcf </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Corel, 2003 </li></ul>
    6. 6. Counties with Oil Reserves > 1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse
    7. 7. Distribution of World Oil Reserves
    8. 8. Distribution of Gas reserves
    9. 9. Giant Fields and the Others: Size is Important <ul><li>Field Size Number of Fields Ave. Production Percent of </li></ul><ul><li>World Total </li></ul><ul><li>--- bbl/day-- --- bbl/day--- ---- pct.-- </li></ul><ul><li>>500,000 14 993,00 20 </li></ul><ul><li>300-500,000 12 342,000 6 </li></ul><ul><li>200-300,000 29 221,000 9 </li></ul><ul><li>100-200,000 61 130,000 12 </li></ul><ul><li><100,000 4,000+ 9,000 53 </li></ul><ul><li>------------------- </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Simmons, 2003. </li></ul>
    10. 10. Giant Fields/Mega Projects Coming On Stream (over 500 MM bbls reserves) <ul><li>Year Number of fields Total production </li></ul><ul><li>2003 9 1.2 million bbls/day </li></ul><ul><li>2004 11 2 million bbls/day </li></ul><ul><li>2005 18 3 million bbls/day </li></ul><ul><li>2006 11 2 million bbls/day </li></ul><ul><li>2007 3 0.320-0.470 million bbls/day </li></ul><ul><li>2008 3 1.270 million bbls/day </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Petroleum Review , January 2004, pp. 18-19 </li></ul>
    11. 11. The Global Perspective <ul><li>Only six of the 55 projects shown on the last table are Caspian projects, but these account for 51 percent of the increase in world totals in fields in this category </li></ul><ul><li>Looking beyond 2008, the only reasonably certain projects are from the Caspian area </li></ul><ul><li>No other field in the “plug the gap category” has more than 12 percent of the reserves of the Kashagan field </li></ul><ul><li>Saudi fields like Ghawar are aging. </li></ul>
    12. 12. The Caspian Importance for US <ul><li>Caspian was important for US before 11/9: </li></ul><ul><li>-Diversification of energy resources </li></ul><ul><li>-Deterring of Russian domination in Central </li></ul><ul><li>Asia and Caucasus </li></ul><ul><li>-US presence to distance among regional </li></ul><ul><li>powers as Russia, China, Iran and India </li></ul>
    13. 13. The Caspian Importance for US <ul><li>Caspian is not important for US as it was before 11/9: </li></ul><ul><li>-War against terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>-The change in US strategy in the region </li></ul><ul><li>from political-economic to security-military </li></ul><ul><li>approach </li></ul><ul><li>-The importance of countries with strong </li></ul><ul><li>ability to fight against terrorism instead of </li></ul><ul><li>rich energy countries. </li></ul><ul><li>-Russian long-term Cooperation with US in energy </li></ul><ul><li>market </li></ul><ul><li>-New Russian Terminals in Murmansk, Primorsk, … </li></ul>
    14. 14. Iran and Caspian Legal Regime <ul><li>1921 and 1940 accords still are valid </li></ul><ul><li>The best system for Caspian is Condominium </li></ul><ul><li>If other states wishes to divide the Caspian, Iran asks for 20% </li></ul><ul><li>No acceptance on dual regime , division in seabed and common on surface. </li></ul><ul><li>The sectored agreements are appreciated </li></ul>
    15. 15. Demilitarized Caspian <ul><li>No military presence in the Caspian with non littoral states’ flags has been recognized by 1921 and 1940 accords </li></ul><ul><li>Iran has proposed the demilitarization of the Caspian </li></ul><ul><li>Iran also protested to a BP oil exploration ship in July 2001. </li></ul>
    16. 16. Confrontation between Iran and Azerbaijan
    17. 17. Agreements among 5 States <ul><li>The Convention on Environment was signed in November 2003 in Tehran. </li></ul><ul><li>Consensus over transportation as 1940 agreement says </li></ul><ul><li>The different agreement on species of the Caspian, 50% of sturgeon trade is for Iran </li></ul><ul><li>The next summit will be in Iran in 2006?? </li></ul><ul><li>14 round of negotiations among littoral states </li></ul><ul><li>Several bilateral, trilateral discussions. </li></ul>
    18. 18. PIPELINE ROUTES: AN IMPRESSION <ul><li>Bottlenecks and </li></ul><ul><li>Pipelines </li></ul><ul><li>11 oil pipeline projects/ 6 operational </li></ul><ul><li>6 natural gas pipeline projects/2 operational. </li></ul><ul><li>Of particular notice: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CPC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BTC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TCP </li></ul></ul>
    19. 20. Train Transport <ul><li>Very costly/ Petrokazakhstan claims $3-4/bbl to Xingjian </li></ul>
    20. 22. Neka-Ray capacities (barrels per day) <ul><li>First Phase: 40 000 </li></ul><ul><li>Second Phase: 170 000 </li></ul><ul><li>Third Phase: 370 000 </li></ul><ul><li>Fourth Phase: 500 000 </li></ul>
    21. 23. Neka-Ray Pipeline Specification <ul><li>Length: 312 km </li></ul><ul><li>Diameter: 32 inch </li></ul><ul><li>Ecological Situation of the pipeline’s location: </li></ul><ul><li>-Forest regions: 42 km </li></ul><ul><li>-Mountainous regions: 114 km </li></ul><ul><li>-Agricultural regions: 156 km </li></ul>
    22. 24. Neka-Ray Old and New Pipeline
    23. 25. Caspian Oil Terminals and Neka
    24. 26. Distance to Baku <ul><li>Astrakhan-Neka: 702 km </li></ul><ul><li>Octavo-Neka: 422 km </li></ul><ul><li>Makhach Kala-Neka: 409 km </li></ul><ul><li>Baku-Neka: 265 km </li></ul><ul><li>Krasnovodsk-Neka: 198 km </li></ul>
    25. 27. Cost of oil transport to Neka $ per ton <ul><li>Astrakhan: $15-16 </li></ul><ul><li>Octavo: $14 </li></ul><ul><li>Makhach Kala: $14 </li></ul><ul><li>Krasnovodsk: $10-12 </li></ul><ul><li>Average: $14 </li></ul>
    26. 28. Pipelines and swaps <ul><li>Situation: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tehran and other major metropolitan areas are in Northern part of Iran. Iranian oil fields are in the South. Transportation to Northern refineries costly </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Azeri, Russian, and Kazakh crude is close at hand, but must be transported to Northern refineries. Iran builds Neka-Tehran pipeline (370,000 bbls/day, 208 miles to Tehran). Iran can buy crude cheaply and transport it to Tehran </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Not necessary to sell South crude to North Iran, sell it at Kharg Island. And charge sellers $2.00/bbl for the ability to sell the crude at a higher price. </li></ul></ul>
    27. 33. A “Bottlenecked” Background <ul><li>Great Power Conflicts/Regional Discord/ILSA </li></ul><ul><li>Property Rights Dispute over Caspian Sea Resources </li></ul>
    28. 34. Pipelines: The “Wave” of the Future <ul><li>Less costly than other forms of transport </li></ul><ul><li>Allow for monopsonid rents </li></ul><ul><li>Pipeline tariffs are a major problem </li></ul><ul><li>As are transit charges </li></ul><ul><li>And vulnerability to sabotage, tapping, and other entrepreneurial activities </li></ul>
    29. 35. Pipelines and Monopsonid Rents <ul><li>Kazakh firm sells to a Russian pipeline owner; assume: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Price of crude at Samara is $26.90/bbl </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Per bbl transport to Samara is $0.67/bbl </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Price in Xinjiang is $20.00/bbl </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost of transport to Xinjiang (tank car) is $4.00/bbl.. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Then Russian owner can purchase Kazakh crude at $16.01/bbl. Sells it in Samara at 26.90/bbl, minus transport costs of $0.67, making a profit of $9.22/bbl. </li></ul><ul><li>Assuming 100,000 bbls./day. Profit per year is $336.5 millions </li></ul>
    30. 36. Pipelines: The Tariff Problem (1) <ul><li>Alternative Caspian Routes: Per Barrel Costs (Tariffs) and </li></ul><ul><li>Pipeline Owner Internal Rates of Return </li></ul><ul><li>Owner IRRs BTC CPC Kazakh- Kazakhstan- China Turkmenistan- </li></ul><ul><li>Kharg Island </li></ul><ul><li>---pct. ------ ----------------------------------US$/bbl/day---------- </li></ul><ul><li>20 1.61 1.78 2.72 0.59 (0.69*) </li></ul><ul><li>15 1.30 1.40 2.14 0.48 (0.55*) </li></ul><ul><li>10 0.98 1.03 1.58 0.38 (0.41*) </li></ul><ul><li>5 0.68 0.70 1.08 0.27 (0.29*) </li></ul><ul><li>____________________________ </li></ul><ul><li>* Maximum Estimation </li></ul>
    31. 37. Pipeline Tariffs (II) <ul><li>Iranian line the least costly </li></ul><ul><li>CPC versus BTC- Results reversed </li></ul><ul><li>Costs not remarkable on a per bbl basis </li></ul><ul><li>Income potential. Difference for BTC line and an IRR of 20 and one of 15 percent is $2.2-2.8 billions </li></ul><ul><li>Incentive for higher tariffs as a means of reducing producer country revenues… </li></ul><ul><li>Could well be a thorn in relationships between Caspian producer governments and the Western oil companies. </li></ul>
    32. 38. Transit Fees and Sabotage: <ul><li>Known transit fees: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CPC line is $3.00/bbl. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BTC line is $0.12-.25/bbl (Georgia), $0.20/bbl (Turkey) and 0.15/bbl (Azerbaijan) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Problem of regional restiveness: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Chechnya closed down N. route to Black Sea </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BTC threats from PKK, and other groups </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pipeline vulnerability (Colombia,Iraq) </li></ul>
    33. 39. Caspian Legal regime (1) <ul><li>Was there ever a Soviet –Iranian Regime? </li></ul><ul><li>Caspian Boundaries and legal effects of the State Succession </li></ul><ul><li>Legal Regime Models and Energy Rights </li></ul><ul><li>United Nations Convention on Law of the Seas and its impacts on the Caspian </li></ul><ul><li>Legal Regime based on Condominium </li></ul><ul><li>Tailor made legal regime for Caspian </li></ul><ul><li>The cloudy legal dimension of Caspian geopolitics </li></ul>
    34. 40. Caspian Legal regime (2) <ul><li>-The Third United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS): </li></ul><ul><li>Equity </li></ul><ul><li>Delimitation </li></ul><ul><li>-Territorial Sea, 12 n. miles </li></ul><ul><li>- Contiguous Zone, 12 n. miles </li></ul><ul><li>- Exclusive Economic Zone, to 200 </li></ul><ul><li>n. miles </li></ul><ul><li>- Continental Shelf, to 200 n. miles </li></ul><ul><li>- High Seas </li></ul>
    35. 41. Caspian Legal regime (3) <ul><li>Applicability of the UNCLOS to the Caspian: </li></ul><ul><li>Lake: </li></ul><ul><li>-Excludes bodies of water have no outlet to </li></ul><ul><li>another sea or ocean (Article 122) </li></ul><ul><li>-None of the littoral states are parties to the UNCLOS </li></ul><ul><li>-Caspian contains Continental Shelf or Depression? </li></ul><ul><li>-Navigation rights to non-littoral states? </li></ul><ul><li>- Transit Passage? </li></ul><ul><li>-But Littoral States can enjoy from equity and </li></ul><ul><li>proportionality consideration in UNCLOS </li></ul><ul><li>-Tools of delimitation by UNCLOS are practical </li></ul><ul><li>- 5 littoral states have full sovereignty, exclusive </li></ul><ul><li>control of air space and subsoil, over 24 miles, an </li></ul><ul><li>EEZ with right of explore hydrocarbon and living </li></ul><ul><li>resources. </li></ul>
    36. 42. Proposed Approaches to the Region <ul><li>Russia: -Collective security, SCO, CSI </li></ul><ul><li>-The coordinated economic </li></ul><ul><li>activities </li></ul><ul><li>-Political activities (CIS) </li></ul><ul><li>West: -Market economy, World Bank, WTO </li></ul><ul><li>-Security cooperation, NATO (PfP), OSCE </li></ul><ul><li>-Life style (Globalization) </li></ul><ul><li>Iran: -Sustainable Development, ECO </li></ul><ul><li>-Political Cooperation, Islamic Conference </li></ul><ul><li>-Orientation on the historical civilization </li></ul><ul><li>and traditions (Now Rouz) </li></ul>
    37. 43. What Iran could do <ul><li>1-Caspian Summit on legal regime </li></ul><ul><li>2-Sustianable activities in various fields: </li></ul><ul><li>Oil and gas </li></ul><ul><li>Fishery </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Aviation </li></ul><ul><li>3-Demilitarization </li></ul><ul><li>4-Public Awareness </li></ul><ul><li>5-International Cooperation </li></ul>
    38. 44. 2-Iran and Russia
    39. 45. Russia: The Biggest Country in the World
    40. 46. Russia
    41. 47. Russia and its Neighbors
    42. 48. Russia at a glance <ul><li>Population: 143.2 million (UN, 2003) </li></ul><ul><li>Capital: Moscow </li></ul><ul><li>Major language: Russian </li></ul><ul><li>Major religions: Christianity, Islam </li></ul><ul><li>Life expectancy: 61 years (men), 73 years (women) (UN) </li></ul><ul><li>Monetary unit: 1 rouble = 100 kopecks </li></ul><ul><li>Main exports: Oil and oil products, natural gas, wood and wood products, metals, chemicals, weapons and military equipment </li></ul><ul><li>GNI per capita: US $2,130 (World Bank, 2002) </li></ul>
    43. 49. Key Decision Makers <ul><li>President: Vladimir Putin </li></ul><ul><li>Prime Minister: Mikhail Fradkov </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign Minister: Sergei Lavrov </li></ul><ul><li>Finance Minister: Alexei Kudrin </li></ul><ul><li>Defence Minister: Sergei Ivanov </li></ul><ul><li>Security Advisor: Igor Ivanov </li></ul>
    44. 50. Soviet’s Foreign Policy <ul><li>Soviet’s Foreign Policy was the conclusion of interaction between national interests and Communism ideology </li></ul><ul><li>Marx: Proletariat doesn’t have the country. </li></ul><ul><li>From 1947, Soviet competition with US: </li></ul><ul><li>-Cold War </li></ul><ul><li>-Peaceful Coexistence </li></ul><ul><li>-Detent </li></ul><ul><li>-Deterrence </li></ul><ul><li>Gorbachev and Regan meeting in Iceland, 1986: </li></ul><ul><li>2 superpowers nuclear weapons reduction </li></ul><ul><li>Soviet economic deterioration </li></ul>
    45. 51. Russia’s Foreign Policy (1) <ul><li>1992-1996: Full coordination with US, idealism and democracy </li></ul><ul><li>1996-2000: Strategic alliance with China and India, focus to Asia, ME </li></ul><ul><li>2000-Sep. 20001: Eurasianism </li></ul><ul><li>Sep. 2001-now: acceptance of unipolar system </li></ul>
    46. 52. Russia’s Foreign Policy (2) Schools of Thoughts <ul><li>Westerners (Atlanticism): </li></ul><ul><li>Andrea Kozyrov (Aug. 1991-Dec. 1992) </li></ul><ul><li>Jion to Democratic Club, </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperation with EU, NATO, IMF, WB, OECD, G7 </li></ul><ul><li>Reduction of relations with Near Abroad </li></ul><ul><li>TWO GROUPS: </li></ul><ul><li>Kozyrov’s Followers: Assertive to the West </li></ul><ul><li>Liberal Politicians: Civilized dialogue both with the West and CIS </li></ul>
    47. 53. Russia’s Foreign Policy (3) Schools of Thoughts <ul><li>Eurasianists </li></ul><ul><li>Response to the Westerners. </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on Russian’s Geopolitics </li></ul><ul><li>TWO GROUPS: </li></ul><ul><li>-The Democratic Version (Reformists) </li></ul><ul><li>-The Slavophil Version </li></ul><ul><li>Derzhavniki (National Power) </li></ul>
    48. 54. Relations with China <ul><li>China’s Asymmetric Deterrence: China with modernized military is ready to fight along its border without permit the third party to intervene. </li></ul><ul><li>Instability inside China: Socio-economic crisis in Northern part of China causes vast emigration to Russia </li></ul><ul><li>Islamic Fundamentalism: Xinjiang independence should be a bed for Islamic fundamentalism and a copy for Central Asia. </li></ul><ul><li>Future of Relations: Russians don’t know Chinese tendency after economic growth and solving Taiwan problem: </li></ul><ul><li>-Shift to the South, no threats on Russian borders </li></ul><ul><li>-Shift to the North, tension increases in China-CIS borders. </li></ul>
    49. 55. 3-Central Asia
    50. 56. Roof of the World
    51. 57. Farghana Valley
    52. 58. Aral Sea Region
    53. 59. Turkmenistan
    54. 60. Turkmenistan (2) <ul><li>Population: 4.8 million (UN, 2003) </li></ul><ul><li>Capital: Ashgabat </li></ul><ul><li>Major language: Turkmen, Russian </li></ul><ul><li>Major religion: Islam </li></ul><ul><li>Life expectancy: 64 years (men), 70 years (women) (UN) </li></ul><ul><li>Monetary unit: 1 Turkmen manat = 100 tenge </li></ul><ul><li>Main exports: Oil, gas, textiles, raw cotton </li></ul><ul><li>GNI per capita: US $1,090 (World Bank, 2001) </li></ul>
    55. 61. Uzbekistan (1)
    56. 62. Uzbekistan (2) <ul><li>Population: 25 million </li></ul><ul><li>Capital: Tashkent </li></ul><ul><li>Area: 447,400 sq km (172,700 sq miles) </li></ul><ul><li>Major language: Uzbek, Russian, Tajik </li></ul><ul><li>Major religion: Islam </li></ul><ul><li>Life expectancy: 66 years (men), 72 years (women) </li></ul><ul><li>Monetary unit: 1 Uzbek som = 100 tiyins </li></ul><ul><li>Main exports: Cotton, gold, natural gas, mineral fertilizers, ferrous metals, textiles, motor vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>GNI per capita: US $310 (World Bank, 2002) </li></ul>
    57. 63. Tajikistan (1)
    58. 64. Tajikistan (2) <ul><li>Population: 6.2 million (UN, 2003) </li></ul><ul><li>Capital: Dushanbe </li></ul><ul><li>Major languages: Tajik, Russian </li></ul><ul><li>Major religion: Islam </li></ul><ul><li>Life expectancy: 66 years (men), 71 years (women) (UN) </li></ul><ul><li>Monetary unit: 1 Tajik somoni = 100 dirams </li></ul><ul><li>Main exports: Aluminium, electricity, cotton, fruit, textiles </li></ul><ul><li>GNI per capita: US $180 (World Bank, 2002) </li></ul>
    59. 65. Kazakhstan (1)
    60. 66. Kazakhstan (2) <ul><li>Population: 15.4 million (UN, 2003) </li></ul><ul><li>Capital: Astana </li></ul><ul><li>Major languages: Kazakh, Russian </li></ul><ul><li>Major religions: Islam, Christianity </li></ul><ul><li>Life expectancy: 61 years (men), 72 years (women) (UN) </li></ul><ul><li>Monetary unit: 1 Kazakh tenge = 100 tiyn </li></ul><ul><li>Main exports: Oil, ferrous and nonferrous metals, machinery, chemicals, grain, wool, meat, coal </li></ul><ul><li>GNI per capita: US $1,520 (World Bank, 2002) </li></ul>
    61. 67. Kyrgyzstan (1)
    62. 68. Kyrgyzstan (2) <ul><li>Population: 5.1 million (UN, 2003) </li></ul><ul><li>Capital: Bishkek </li></ul><ul><li>Major languages: Kyrgyz, Russian </li></ul><ul><li>Major religions: Islam, Christianity </li></ul><ul><li>Life expectancy: 65 years (men), 72 years (women) (UN) </li></ul><ul><li>Monetary unit: 1 som = 100 tyiyns </li></ul><ul><li>Main exports: Fruit, vegetables, gold, tobacco </li></ul><ul><li>GNI per capita: US $290 (World Bank, 2002) </li></ul>
    63. 69. TABLE 1: CENTRAL ASIA SIZE AND ECONOMY Source: World Bank statistical data base           4200      2.0    4.0   147   158.8   38.7   0.3       Poland           1660      5.0    8.3    66   251.1 145.5 17.1       Russia               Comparators           38.5 55.6   4.0 C.A. Total             170      5.0    8.3    38      1.0   6.3   0.1 Tajikistan             270      5.3    5.0    66     1.3   4.9   0.2 Kyrgyz Rep.             840    16.0   17.6    76     4.4 **   4.8   0.5 Turkmenistan             610      3.8    4.0    96   13.5 * 24.7   0.5 Uzbekistan           1190    10.0    9.6    66   18.3 14.9   2.7 Kazakhstan GDP/ Capita 2000 (atlas method)   GDP Growth 2000           2001          GDP -2000 Current      % of ($B) Real GDP Pop. (#M) Size (SqKm Millions)  
    64. 70. TABLE 2:  INDICATORS OF CENTRAL ASIA MACRO STABILITY – 2000 Source: World Bank statistical data base na 10 -6.3 -2.2       Poland 65 21 16.7   2.9       Russia         Comparators 93 33 -6.2 -0.6 Tajikistan 131 19 -5.9 -10.2 Kyrgyz Rep. a/     52** 8      9.4 **   1.2 Turkmenistan     59** 28      2.4 ** -2.2 Uzbekistan 34 13 5.9 -1.0 Kazakhstan Debt to GDP (%) Inflation (%) Current Account Balance (% GDP) Fiscal Balance (% GDP)    
    65. 71. TABLE 3 THE LEVEL OF REFORM IN CENTRAL ASIA – 2000 (rated on a scale of 1 to 4.3, with 4.3 being the highest level of reform) Source:  EBRD Transition Report, 2001 3.3 3.0 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.3       Poland 1.7 2.0 3.3 4.0 2.3 3.0       Russia             Comparators 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.3 3.3 3. 0 Tajikistan 2.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 Kyrgyz Rep. 1.0 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.0 2.0 Turkmenistan 1.7 1.7 2.7 3.0 1.0 2.0 Uzbekistan 2.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 Kazakhstan Banking Sector Reform Enterprise Reform    Privatization Small   Large FX and trade Prices  
    66. 72. 4-Caucasia
    67. 73. Georgia and Armenia
    68. 74. Azerbaijan Republic
    69. 75. Nagorno-Karabakh
    70. 76. Paul Gobel proposal
    71. 77. Bibliography <ul><li>Corel,D. (2003) Caspian Sea Region:Key Oil and Gas Statistics, August, Energy Information Administration, USDE, http://eia.doe.gov/cabs/caspstats.html </li></ul><ul><li>Dimitroff, T.J.(2003). “The Legal Implications of BTC,” Presentation to the IEA Round Table on Caspian Oil and Gas (Florence, April 14) http://www.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/textbase/work/2003/caspian/DIMITROFF.PDF </li></ul><ul><li>“ Export Routes and Options” (2002), July http://iea.org.html </li></ul><ul><li>Heslin,S. N. (1998).”Key Constraints to Caspian Pipeline:Status,Significance and Outlook”Unlocking the Asets:Energy and the Future of Central Asia and the Caucasus(James Baker III Institute of Public Policy, Rice University, April http://www.rice.edu/energy/unlockingtheassets.html </li></ul><ul><li>Simmons, M. R(2003). “The Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle” ppt presentation to CSIS, Washington D.C. February 24 .http://www.csis.org/energy </li></ul><ul><li>Soligo, R.(2002).”The Economics of Transport Routes for Caspian Oil” http://denizhukuku.bilgi.edu.tr/caspian%20conference%oilgi-Soligo.doc </li></ul>
    72. 78. Bibliography II <ul><li>Map Credit: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Oil, the Taliban and the Political Balance of Central Asia” A Worldpress.org.special report http://www.worldpress.orgg/specials/pp/frnt.htm </li></ul><ul><li>Pictures Credit: </li></ul><ul><li>Caspian World http://caspianworld.com/en/90/1311370470/1603766208/553748694/1489428647 </li></ul>

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