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RAO UES Anatoly Chubais, CEO November 14, 2007 Russian Power Sector: Competitive market  and new investment opportunities
Russia: # 4 electricity producer in the world TWh Ten Largest Electricity Markets   in 2006 Sources: BP Statistical Review...
Basics of the Reform:  Separation of Monopolistic and Competitive Sectors Monopolistic sectors  Dispatching Transmission a...
Competitive wholesale market : Supply/Demand Equation Prices Source: Administrator of Trade System (ATS) Average prices (E...
Power Market Development Pace of liberalization: government’s plan and actual progress  All new capacity and consumption ...
Functional unbundling  Legal unbundling  Ownership unbundling  The issue is not settled yet for the majority of EU countri...
Two final chords of the reform Corporate and legal actions taken according to the plan Coordinated Agreed Synchronized UES...
Monopolistic sectors Competitive sectors <ul><li>Thermal Wholesale GenCos (OGKs) </li></ul><ul><li>HydroOGK </li></ul><ul>...
Unlocking the value through unbundling Source: broker reports, Bloomberg. Market data as of November 8, 2007 ¹  As  per RA...
Total: ~ 13,8 bn Euro (average price: ~397 Euro/ kW ) + Other OGKs/TGKs planned share placements and competitive sales: ~ ...
Schedule:  OGKs/TGKs Share Placements and Competitive Sales Schedule for placing additional shares in OGK-6 to be specifie...
Prospects until 2030: Target Concept, General Scheme, Investment Programs 2006 2010 2020 2030 General Scheme for locating ...
Electricity demand growth outlook:  Mid-term and long-term view Mid-term Long-term Source: Ministry of Industry and Energy...
2006-2010  RAO UES Capacity Commissioning Program MW  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006-2010 Thermal generation OGKs, TGKs, RA...
2006-2010  Sources of financing ~28.5  (3 1 %) ~15  (16%) ~4.8  (5%) ~22.8  ( 24 %) Euro, bn ~22.9 ( 24% ) Private investm...
RAO UES Investment Program for 2006-2010:  Higher Demand for Suppliers’ Products and Services * Power Sector Development P...
New Investors, New Market New Opportunities
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  • обеспечить завершение структурных преобразований в отрасли и, таким образом, создать условия для завершения переходного периода реформирования электроэнергетики; распределить между государством и миноритарными акционерами принадлежащие обществу активы, пропорционально долям акционеров в капитале ОАО РАО «ЕЭС России»; обеспечить целевую долю государства в уставном капитале ОАО «ФСК ЕЭС», ОАО «СО-ЦДУ ЕЭС» и ОАО «ГидроОГК» в соответствии с требованиями законодательства РФ; обеспечить привлечение средств в инфраструктурные компании и ОАО «ГидроОГК» в объеме, необходимом для снижения дефицита инвестиционных программ, прежде всего за счет продажи части пакетов акций тепловых генерирующих компаний, приходящихся на долю государства; обеспечить гарантии прав миноритарных акционеров на получение ими акций компаний целевой структуры электроэнергетики пропорционально их доле участия в ОАО РАО «ЕЭС России».
  • Уже сегодня все видят примеры первых крупномасштабных инвестиций в российскую энергетику. Вот примеры - чуть больше месяца назад была осуществлена крупнейшая инвестиционная сделка в истории российской энергетики – Германская компания Е- on приобрела контроль над ОГК-4 почти за 146,5 миллиардов рублей (примерно 5,9 миллиарда долларов). Летом, в июне, итальянская Enel заплатила за блокпакет ОГК-5 39,2 миллиарда рублей (примерно 1,57 миллиарда долларов. РАО «ЕЭС России сейчас, по сути, находится в стадии конвеерного привлечения инвестиций. К настоящему времени завершено размещение акций дополнительной эмиссии уже четырьмя оптовыми генерирующими компаниями – ОГК-2, ОГК-3, ОГК-4 и ОГК-5, и тремя территориальными генерирующими компаниями – ТГК-1, Мосэнерго (ТГК-3) и ТГК-5, а также идет дополнительная эмиссия ТГК-8. Приватизация – не самоцель. Главное – создание конкурентной среды и строительство новых мощностей. Будущее энергетики зависит от нового строительства. Инвестпрограмма ФСК синхронизирована с инвестпрораммой по генерации. Все наши размещения – успешны. Мы понимаем, что наши клиенты – это стратеги. Спрос на наши акции – 80% -стратеги, 20% портфельные инвесторы. Дешево – не будет. Мы верим в тренд. Впервые мы сделали листинг на лондонской бирже. Это компания ОГК-2. Да , честно признаю, состояние финансовых рынков в момент крупного размещения не позволило нам привлечь все необходимые средства. Не беда, мы сделаем это позднее. Скажу так: итоги по ОГК-2 нас не разочаровали. Стратег там есть. Мы его знаем. Он знает нас. Похожая ситуация по ОГК-6. Сроки размещения этой компании сейчас уточняются.
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    1. 1. RAO UES Anatoly Chubais, CEO November 14, 2007 Russian Power Sector: Competitive market and new investment opportunities
    2. 2. Russia: # 4 electricity producer in the world TWh Ten Largest Electricity Markets in 2006 Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2007), CIA World Factbook (2007) 22.4% Share of Total 14.9% 6.0% 5.2% 3.8% 3.3% 3.0% 3.1% 2.2% 2.2% GDP Real growth rate (2006 est.) 4,254 2,834.4 1,150.3 981 726.7 635.8 584.4 571.1 419.1 415.9 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 US China Japan Russia India Germany Canada France Brazil South Korea 2.9% 11.1% 2.2% 6.7% 9.4% 2.8% 2.2% 2.8% 3.7% 5.0%
    3. 3. Basics of the Reform: Separation of Monopolistic and Competitive Sectors Monopolistic sectors Dispatching Transmission and Distribution grids Competitive sectors Supply Generation Private property and market Government property and Government regulation
    4. 4. Competitive wholesale market : Supply/Demand Equation Prices Source: Administrator of Trade System (ATS) Average prices (Europe+Urals and Siberia), Rb/MWh Day (Apr 07) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 01.10.07 08.10.07 15.10.07 22.10.07 29.10.07 Week and month 200 300 400 500 600 200 300 400 500 600 700 Sept 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sept 07 Oct 07 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Year
    5. 5. Power Market Development Pace of liberalization: government’s plan and actual progress  All new capacity and consumption commissioned after 2007 go to the free market 0% 5% 10% 15% 25% 30% 50% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Excluding electricity consumption by households actual pace of liberalization (facts and estimates) mandatory increase of the liberalized market share ~ 25 % ~ 35 % ~ 40 % ~ 60 % ~ 70 % ~ 90 % 100 % Jan 1, 2007 Jul 1, 2007 Jan 1, 2008 Jul 1, 2008 Jan 1, 2009 Jul 1, 2009 Jan 1, 2010 Jul 1, 2010 Jan 1, 2011 Sept 1, 2006 ~18% (Sept 06) ~19% (Sept 07)
    6. 6. Functional unbundling Legal unbundling Ownership unbundling The issue is not settled yet for the majority of EU countries: Ownership unbundling of VICs and spin-off of distribution grids EU countries Deadline for ownership unbundling of RAO UES (Federal Law No. 250, November 4, 2007) Russia July 1, 2008 ?? Power Sector: Functional , Legal and Ownership Unbundling
    7. 7. Two final chords of the reform Corporate and legal actions taken according to the plan Coordinated Agreed Synchronized UES Extraordinary General Meeting (October 26, 2007) RAO UES EGM approved the final reorganization (more than 95.43% of the attending shareholders voted for). Deadline for reorganization: UES ownership unbundling by July 1, 2008. UES shareholders will receive shares in all target companies on a pro rata basis Federal Law No. 250 to adjust power sector laws in connection with RAO UES reorganization. Transitional period of the power sector reform will end by July 1, 2008 (date of completion of the RAO UES reorganization). Federal Law No. 250 (November 4, 2007)
    8. 8. Monopolistic sectors Competitive sectors <ul><li>Thermal Wholesale GenCos (OGKs) </li></ul><ul><li>HydroOGK </li></ul><ul><li>Territorial GenCos (TGKs) </li></ul><ul><li>INTER RAO </li></ul><ul><li>Federal Grid Company </li></ul><ul><li>System Operator </li></ul><ul><li>Interregional Distribution Companies </li></ul><ul><li>(IDC Holding) </li></ul><ul><li>Far East Energy Systems </li></ul>Competitive and Monopolistic Sectors: Target Structure Companies Private property and market Government property and Government regulation
    9. 9. Unlocking the value through unbundling Source: broker reports, Bloomberg. Market data as of November 8, 2007 ¹ As per RAO 2006 full year consolidated IFRS financials (bn Euro net to RAO UES) 36 Thermal GenCos Misc ellaneous assets 54 RAO S um Of P arts Current market cap. OGK TGK 14 14 9 Hydro GenCo 5 Federal Grid Co. 1 Inter RAO 8 Distr'n 1 Supply 2
    10. 10. Total: ~ 13,8 bn Euro (average price: ~397 Euro/ kW ) + Other OGKs/TGKs planned share placements and competitive sales: ~ 14 billion Euro by April 2008 Funds raised From share placements and competitive sales to strategic investors Euro in billions OGK-5 OGK-3 TGK-5 TGK-3 OGK-5 OGK-4 TGK-1 OGK-2 TGK-8 OGK-3
    11. 11. Schedule: OGKs/TGKs Share Placements and Competitive Sales Schedule for placing additional shares in OGK-6 to be specified TGK-13 TGK-7 Apr 08 Mar 08 Feb 08 Jan 08 Dec 07 Nov 07 34 % TGK-14 25 % TGK-3 (LSE) 76 % TGK-10 53 % TGK-11 32% 47% 52 % TGK-6 50 % TGK-2 68 % OGK-1 56 % TGK-4 34 % TGK-12 55 % Stake offered, % Apr 08 Mar 08 Feb 08 Jan 08 Dec 07 Nov 07 2008 2007 TGK-9
    12. 12. Prospects until 2030: Target Concept, General Scheme, Investment Programs 2006 2010 2020 2030 General Scheme for locating power capacity until 2020 Target Concept for Development of the Russian Electricity Power Sector until 2030 2006-2010 Investment Program of UES Holding Company 5-year investment programs of energy companies from 2008 2006 2010 2020 2030
    13. 13. Electricity demand growth outlook: Mid-term and long-term view Mid-term Long-term Source: Ministry of Industry and Energy (Minpromenergo) ; UES estimates 5% 5,6 % 3,7 % 5,3 % 3,9 % 5 % 0 2 4 6 2006-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 kWh, bln 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 981 1,030 1,082 1,133 1,197 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average annual increase in 2006-10: 5% (basic scenario) Basic scenario Optimistic scenario
    14. 14. 2006-2010 RAO UES Capacity Commissioning Program MW 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006-2010 Thermal generation OGKs, TGKs, RAO UES 1 186 1 545 2 050 5 788 14 364 24 934 Hydro OGK 67 690 420 1 224 1 612 4 013 Total commissioning 1 253 2 235 2 470 7 089 15 919 28 947 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 MW 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
    15. 15. 2006-2010 Sources of financing ~28.5 (3 1 %) ~15 (16%) ~4.8 (5%) ~22.8 ( 24 %) Euro, bn ~22.9 ( 24% ) Private investments State b udget financing Credits and loans Companies’ funds Other
    16. 16. RAO UES Investment Program for 2006-2010: Higher Demand for Suppliers’ Products and Services * Power Sector Development Program Construction materials (Solely cement expenses of TPPs and HPPs): ~ 0.3 bn Euro R&D (Solely in thermal power sector): ~ 2 bn Euro Construction and installation (Solely in thermal power sector): ~ 9 bn Euro 4.5-fold 4-fold 8-fold 2010 vs. 2006 Generation equipment (Procurements of solely primary generation equipment for OGKs and TGKs): ~ 21.6 bn Euro 8-fold Electrical equipment (Procurements solely for FGC): ~ 7.6 bn Euro 4-fold Coal: ~ 731 million tonnes of coal 40% Gas: ~ 848 billion cub.m. of gas 30% * Expert estimates
    17. 17. New Investors, New Market New Opportunities
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