Dr Luke Warren How Will the EU Power its Future?

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Dr Luke Warren How Will the EU Power its Future?

  1. 1. How Will the EU Power its Future? World Coal Institute Perspective Dr Luke Warren European Voice Conference Brussels, 7 February 2008
  2. 2. World Coal Institute WCI provides > > PT Adaro Indonesia Anglo Coal Coal provides: a voice for coal > > Arch Coal BHP Billiton Energy Coal 25% of world primary > Assocarboni (Italy) > BHP Billiton Mitsubishi > Associacao Brasileira do Carvao Alliance energy Mineral > Carbonnes del Cerrejon Colombia > > Australian Coal Association British Equipment Manufacturers > Carbonnes del Zulia Venezuela 40% of world electricity Association > Coal India Limited > Camara Asomineros > Coal Association of Canada > > Consol Energy Glencore International 66% of world steel > Coal Association of New Zealand > Joy Global > Confederation of UK Coal Producers > Mitsubishi Development > German Hard Coal association > Peabody Energy > Indonesian Coal Mining Association > Rio Tinto Ltd > Solid Energy NZ > National Mining Association (USA) > Store Norske > Philippine Chamber of Coal Mines Spitsbergen > Shaanxi Coalfields Geological Bureau Grupekompant Norway > Svenska Kolinstitutet (Sweden) > TOTAL SA > UGC Partnership Limited > XSTRATA Coal Beilungang Power Station, China
  3. 3. An Integrated Approach to Energy Policy Energy Policy for Europe Objectives: 1. Increasing Security of Supply 2. Ensuring Economic Competitiveness & Affordability of Energy 3. Environmental Sustainability & Climate Change European Council Presidency Conclusions, March 2007
  4. 4. Coal reserves: Abundant and widely distributed COAL LASTS 147 YEARS More than twice as long as gas (63 years) More than three times as long as oil (41 years) (BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007)  Abundant  Globally distributed  Affordable & stable in price  Safe & reliable
  5. 5. Coal: an affordable fuel Energy Price Trends (US$ per tonne of oil equivalent) Oil Gas Coal 600.0 500.0 US$ per tonne of oil equivalent 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 - 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 BP Statistical review 2007
  6. 6. Environmental Sustainability & Climate Change > IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007): “warming of the climate system is unequivocal. It is very likely that anthropogenic GHG increases caused most of the observed increase” Coal 2005 41% 39% 20% Oil Gas 2030 Reference Scenario 45% 34% 21% 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario 40% 37% 23% 2030 High Growth Scenario 46% 33% 21% 0 10 20 30 40 50 billion tonnes Coal remains the biggest contributor to global emissions throughout the projection period OECD/IEA, 2007, World Energy Outlook
  7. 7. Power plant efficiency improvements Supply side efficiency is important… (1% LHV Efficiency = 2 – 3% CO2 emissions) Reduces 1.7 GtCO2 / yr >300 MW 22% coal emissions 5.5% global emissions Replace: < 300 MW …and an essential > 25 years old prerequisite for CCS IEA 2006
  8. 8. Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) IPCC Special Report on CCS;  Power plants with CCS could emit 80-90% less CO2 net;  CCS provides a 30 percent or more reduction in the cost of climate change mitigation;  CCS is compatible with most current energy infrastructures;  The role of CCS increases over the course of the century, providing 15 to 55 percent of the cumulative mitigation effort;  CCS contributes between 220 and 2,200 GtCO2 cumulative Sleipner, storing 1 MtCO2/yr safely since 1996 emissions reductions through 2100.
  9. 9. Geological storage of CO2 Globally at least 2,000 GtCO2 storage capacity in geological formations, potentially much larger Fraction retained in appropriately selected and managed geological reservoirs is very likely to exceed 99% over 100 and is likely to exceed 99% over 1,000 years 9 IPCC Special Report on CCS, 2005
  10. 10. Conclusions > The coal resource is abundant and globally distributed; > Providing a secure and affordable energy supply for the foreseeable future; > Technology enables coal use to be compatible with ambitious climate change mitigation goals; > Coal can meet Europe’s energy policy objectives and will play a key role in powering the EU’s future.
  11. 11. Thank you www.worldcoal.org “The only possible overarching solution to a long-term sustainable future is to develop a global mix that uses all options simultaneously – to combine greater energy efficiency improvements with more renewables, more nuclear energy and more fossil fuels with CCS” Executive Director International Energy Agency

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