DEVELOPMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY AND FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLY IN INDIA Anil Kakodkar  a , Placid Rodriguez  b ,  and  Sriram Jayasim...
Top Primary Energy Consuming Countries 2002 Source:  BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2003 Account for 54% of w...
Per Capita Energy Consumption, 2002 India - High potential for growth Source: EIA/BP; population estimates based on 11 yr ...
Per Capita Electricity Consumption & Human Development Index (HDI) Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite index prep...
1953-54  1960-61  1970-71  1980-81  1990-91  2001-02  2006-07  2011-12 Table 1. Trends in Supply of Primary Energy in Indi...
SHARE OF NON-COMMERCIAL ENERGY 1953-54  1980-81  2001-02  2011-12 %SHARE  71  52  32  23..5 MOTE  64.13  108.48  139.02  1...
Sector  Commercial Energy   Sectoral Energy Consumption   consumed as   by fuel  % MTOE  %   Coal  Natural  Petroleum Elec...
GROWTH OF INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY (MW) 107973 79470 63290 42585 28448 16604 9027 4653 2695 1362
Table 3:Contribution of different fuel resources to primary and electrical energy  Primary Energy (EJ), Year 2002-03 ( Est...
Share of electric power consumption <ul><li>Industry  39% </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture  33% </li></ul><ul><li>Transport  ...
1953-54  1960-61  1970-71  1980-81  1990-91  2001-02  2006-07  2011-12 Table 1. Trends in Supply of Primary Energy in Indi...
Table 4: A survey of energy growth rate projections for India  Study  Period  Commercial  Electrical %  % 3.9 3.9 2042- 20...
Major assumptions in Grover-Chandra  study <ul><li>Population of India stabilizes by 2050 at a level of 1.5 billion. </li>...
Major assumptions in Grover-Chandra  study <ul><li>2.  There are two indicators pointing to the fact that India is already...
Energy Intensity  = Ratio  of  Total Primary Energy Supply to GDP   TOE/ 000 95 US $;  MER=MARKET EXCHANGE RATE PPP  =  PU...
Major assumptions in Grover-Chandra  study <ul><li>3.The future GDP growth rates of India WILL FOLLOW  the projections mad...
Table 5. Estimated growth rates of primary and electrical energy in India Based on the growth rates given in the above tab...
Meeting the Increasing Energy Demand in the Coming Decades <ul><li>Energy security means the availability of energy at all...
Table 6.Primary Energy  & Electricity Resources in India Resource  Amount  Thermal Energy  Electricity potential  EJ  TWh ...
The strategies and options for meeting the growth in energy demand in India therefore are multi-pronged  : <ul><li>More ef...
More Efficient Use of Fuels and Energy <ul><li>Reforms to provide an environment that, encourages free and fair competitio...
Exploration for Increasing Fossil Fuel Reserves   <ul><li>New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP), first announced in 1997...
Harnessing Full Potential for Hydro-Generation of Electricity <ul><li>Viable hydro-potential  =  84  GW  at 60%  load fact...
Table 6.Primary Energy  & Electricity Resources in India Resource  Amount  Thermal Energy  Electricity potential  EJ  TWh ...
10 GWe  × 33 Yrs  420 GWe × 100Yrs  500GWe × 300 Yrs
Developed  540 Mwe PHWRs &Construction in progress; Unit size being scaled up to 680 MWe Developed Front End &  Back End T...
Indian Nuclear Power Programme <ul><li>   14 reactors at 6 sites under operation   2,770    2,770 </li></ul><ul><li>Tarap...
Competitive with contemporary coal thermal. Concept of introducing pooled tariff is being tried on regional basis.   UNIT ...
 
Projects Under Construction  U5  – May 07 U6  – Nov 08 On Schedule  2x220 RAPP - 5&6 U1  – Sept 07  U2  – Sept 08 On Sched...
<ul><li>Annual electricity generation would increase from about 638 TWh in 2002-03 to about 7957 TWhr in 2052-53.  </li></...
<ul><li>Total Installed power capacity will go up from about 137 GWe in 2002-03 to about 1344 GWe in 2052-53. </li></ul><u...
Increasing Use of Non-Conventional  Energy <ul><li>Today, India has  perhaps the only Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy ...
Table 7. Renewable energy potential and achievements in India[24] Sources/ Technologies  Units  Potential  Achievements 20...
Co-Generation in India: Status And Prospects for  Renewable Energy Sources <ul><li>The growing gap between energy supply a...
Table 8. Indian UPS market segments and growth   - 4% Other Noise, space, fuel/ lubrication handling Residential - 25% 6% ...
Figure 2. Cash outflow per MWh, for daytime use, @ 7% finance, 5% p.a. fuel price rise, 27% conversion efficiency, 1MWp DG...
Figure 3. Hybrid-source UPS (left), SPV array and wind generator (right)
Table 7. Renewable energy potential and achievements in India[24] Sources/ Technologies  Units  Potential  Achievements 35...
<ul><li>Total Installed power capacity will go up from about 137 GWe in 2002-03 to about 1344 GWe in 2052-53. </li></ul><u...
Search for Alternate Energy Sources <ul><li>Th/U-233 cycle  will be the mainstay beyond 2050. </li></ul><ul><li>The other ...
Th/U-233 Cycle <ul><li>Mastery of Th fuel cycle- extraction, fuel fabrication, irradiation to produce  </li></ul><ul><li>U...
Coal Bed Methane (CBM)  <ul><li>India has an estimated 1000 Billion cubic meters of coal bed methane (CBM).  </li></ul><ul...
Gas Hydrates  <ul><li>There is a potential of 6156 cubic meters of gas hydrates and 600 million tons of oil shale in the I...
Hydrogen  <ul><li>A scenario, in which, hydrogen will replace hydrocarbons as the major primary energy source, particularl...
Nuclear Fusion Technology  <ul><li>Both plasma and laser fusion studies are in progress. </li></ul><ul><li>India is also a...
CONCLUSION   <ul><li>The demand for energy is expected to grow significantly in the next five decades, nine-fold to 117 EJ...
CONCLUSION <ul><li>The share of nuclear energy will increase to 25%, hydro to 11%, and non–conventional to 4%.  </li></ul>...
 
 
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

DEVELOPMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY AND FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLY IN INDIA

1,252

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,252
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
57
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • These six countries account for 54% the world energy consumption. While China’s share is 10.5% and India’s 3.5%,
  • Both countries have a per capita consumption that is below the world’s average
  • The correlation between per capita energy consumption and the quality of life is well known. The Human Development Index (HDI), a composite index evolved by the United Nations Development Program(UNDP) on a scale of 0 to 1, measured by three key components – longevity, knowledge and income, reflects the quality of life. kWh&gt;5000,HDI is &gt; 0.9 Current per capita in India : 610 kWh.
  • a five-fold increase in total primary energy supply in India over the five decades since independence. a shift from non- commercial sources of energy to commercial sources of energy . Coal continues to be the major source of commercial energy; however, the share of coal-based energy has declined from a level of 90% in 1953–54 to 58.9% in 1980–81 and to 51.1% in 2001–02. The share of hydro-carbons in the commercial energy consumption of the country has been increasing over the years and in 2001 –02 it was 44.9% as compared to 32.2% in 1980–81. The share of net imports to the commercial energy has been growing and in 2001-02,about 32% of the commercial energy supply in India were dependent on imports. The imports of 87.85 MTOE in 2001–2002 include the import of 75.43 MT of crude and petroleum products, 19.6MT of coal and 1.43 BkWh of electricity from Bhutan.
  • As seen in Table 1, the share of non-commercial energy supply in the total primary energy supply has been decreasing over the last five decades from 71% in 1953- 54 to 52% in 1980 – 81 to 32% in 2001 – 02. However, in absolute values, the primary energy supply has more than doubled in the five decades
  • The industrial sector is the largest consumer of energy, consuming about half of the total energy in 2001–2002. The transport sector is the next biggest consumer at 22% total commercial energy consumption. Agriculture uses only 5% of the commercial energy; 89.2% the commercial energy consumed in the agricultural sector is electricity. Of the total electricity consumption in the country, nearly one third (32.75% to be exact) is Agriculture’s share. In a number of states electricity use is even higher, between 35 to 47%. For a populous country like India, food security is a crucial component of the national policy and the agricultural development strategy of the nation has included, as key components, rapid farm mechanization and under–pricing of power and irrigation facilities for the farmers. Another noteworthy fact is that 98.5% of the energy consumed by the transport sector is from petroleum products. In 2001 – 02, India imported 63.2% of its requirements of crude petroleum and the import component has further increased to 70.8% in the year 2002 – 03
  • In 1947, at the time of independence, total installed electricity generation capacity in India, was 1363 MWe. The capacity addition in the last 57 years have been substantial and rapid, rising to 30, 214 MWe in 1980- 81 to 66088 MWe in 1990 – 91 and to 136973 MWe as on 31st March 2003 . 29000 MWe of captive power capacity and 1,07,973 MWe of electrical utilities . The electricity generation in India in 2002–03 was a total of 630 BkWh per year (532 BkWh from utilities and 104 BkWh from captive power plants) which amounts to 610 kWh per year per capita for a population of 1.05 billion.
  • a five-fold increase in total primary energy supply in India over the five decades since independence. a shift from non- commercial sources of energy to commercial sources of energy . Coal continues to be the major source of commercial energy; however, the share of coal-based energy has declined from a level of 90% in 1953–54 to 58.9% in 1980–81 and to 51.1% in 2001–02. The share of hydro-carbons in the commercial energy consumption of the country has been increasing over the years and in 2001 –02 it was 44.9% as compared to 32.2% in 1980–81. The share of net imports to the commercial energy has been growing and in 2001-02,about 32% of the commercial energy supply in India were dependent on imports. The imports of 87.85 MTOE in 2001–2002 include the import of 75.43 MT of crude and petroleum products, 19.6MT of coal and 1.43 BkWh of electricity from Bhutan. These estimates had assumed an annual growth rate of 4.25% per year
  • International Energy Outlook 2002 (IEO) Energy Information Administration of the United States .Environment Agency of the Government of Japan . Institute of Energy Economics of Japan (IEEJ)
  • According to a study published by the United Nations [1] , depending on the population growth scenario, India’s population will cross 1.88 billions (high variant), 1.57 billions (medium variant) or 1.2billion (Low variant) in the year 2050. For this to happen, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will have to go down from the present 2.9 children per woman to 2.6 by the year 2020 for the high variant, to 2.1 by the year 2020 for the medium variant or to 1.6 by the period 2010-15 for the low variant. In the case of the low variant the population will be passing through a peak of nearly 1.3 billion around the year 2040. The national population policy (NPP), 2000, recently adopted by the Government of India states [1] that ‘the long-term objective is to achieve a stable population by 2045’. The policy document assumes that the medium term objective of bringing down the total fertility rate (TFR) to the replacement level of 2.1 by 2010 will be achieved. In tune with the long term objective of the Government of India, the present study assumes that India’s population will stabilize by the year 2050 at a level of 1.50 billions. [1] Provisional Population Totals, Pg. 31, Census of India 2001, Registrar General &amp; Census Commissioner, India. [1] World Population: Major Trends- A Study by United Nations, (www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/Papers)
  • JAPAN:EI (MER)=0.09,EI(PPP)=0.17 PPP/ M ER= 1,USA,5.5 FOR INDIA 3.8 FOR CHINA , 2.5 FOR RF,1.6 FOR CANADA,0.89 FOR OECD, 0.55 FOR JAPAN,2.52 FOR NONOECD EUROPE
  • The most important point is that the domestic supply of fossil fuels, coal (about 38BT) and hydrocarbon reserves (about 72BT) can provide about 1200EJ of energy, as against the projected cumulative demand of about 2400EJ by the year 2052.
  • The most important point is that the domestic supply of fossil fuels, coal (about 38BT) and hydrocarbon reserves (about 72BT) can provide about 1200EJ of energy, as against the projected cumulative demand of about 2400EJ by the year 2052. The uranium resources of India can give us an electricity generation of ~328 GWe-yr from the 0.7% of U-235 in natural uranium. The energy potential increases to ~42231 GWe-yr through the breeder route (which breeds Pu-239 from the 99.3% of U-238 in natural uranium). India has four times more thorium than uranium and the energy potential from the thorium resources is as high as 155,500 GWe-yr.
  • The scenario of Grover and Chandra [5] discussed earlier, envisages a 7% share for non–conventional sources in the installed power capacity of 1344 GWe in 2002-2003.
  • Assuming that connecting renewable energy sources to UPS is inexpensive, it is appropriate to compare theresidual costs, viz., the renewable energy source’s investment amortization and diesel fuel cost per generated energy unit.
  • The scenario of Grover and Chandra [5] discussed earlier, envisages a 7% share for non–conventional sources in the installed power capacity of 1344 GWe in 2002-2003.
  • Transcript of "DEVELOPMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY AND FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLY IN INDIA"

    1. 1. DEVELOPMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY AND FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLY IN INDIA Anil Kakodkar a , Placid Rodriguez b , and Sriram Jayasimha c a : Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission, Mumbai ,India b: AICTE-INAE Distinguished Visiting Professor, Indian Institute of Technology Madras,Chennai. c: Chairman,  Signion Systems Ltd., Hyderabad, India
    2. 2. Top Primary Energy Consuming Countries 2002 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2003 Account for 54% of world energy consumption MTOE (10.6%) (3.5%)
    3. 3. Per Capita Energy Consumption, 2002 India - High potential for growth Source: EIA/BP; population estimates based on 11 yr avg gr rate over 2001 (Kg/head/yr)
    4. 4. Per Capita Electricity Consumption & Human Development Index (HDI) Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite index prepared on a scale of 0-1   measured by three key components - longevity, knowledge and income. Source: Human Development Report, 1998, World Bank   World Development Indicators, 1999, World Bank 0.35 39 Nepal 0.37 97 Bangladesh 0.45 333 Pakistan 0.45 347 India 0.65 687 China 0.83 2078 Malaysia 0.89 4453 Korea 0.90 7196 Singapore 0.93 8086 Australia 0.94 11796 USA 0.96 15129 Canada HDI kWh Country
    5. 5. 1953-54 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 Table 1. Trends in Supply of Primary Energy in India MTOE Supply Estimated demand Source: Government of India, Planning Commission, Tenth Five Year Plan, Chapter 7 .3. [1] 1MTOE = 4.2 x 10 4 Tera Joules 723.93 563.21 437.69 305.19 208.30 147.05 117.20 90.38 Total Primary Energy Supply 170.25 151.30 139.02 122.07 108.48 86.72 74.38 64.13 Primary Non Commercial Energy Supply 553.68 411.91 298.67 183.12 99.82 60.33 42.82 26.25 Commercial Energy Supply 87.85 31.69 24.63 12.66 6.04 2.20 Net Imports 210.82 151.43 75.19 47.67 36.78 24.05 <ul><li>Total </li></ul>1.00 0.35 0.14 - - - - - Wind Power 14.16 6.04 5.15 1.60 0.78 0.63 - - Nuclear Power 18.54 12.73 6.37 6.16 4.00 2.17 0.67 0.24 Hydro Power 57.60 42.70 26.72 11.73 1.41 0.60 - - Natural Gas 185.40 144.58 32.03 33.92 10.79 7.01 0.46 0.19 Crude Oil 22.05 15.51 6.52 3.34 1.23 0.81 0.01 - Lignite 254.93 190.00 133.89 94.68 59.96 36.48 35.64 23.62 Coal
    6. 6. SHARE OF NON-COMMERCIAL ENERGY 1953-54 1980-81 2001-02 2011-12 %SHARE 71 52 32 23..5 MOTE 64.13 108.48 139.02 170.25 <ul><li>The decreasing share of non-commercial energy indicates increasing URBANISATION / INDUSTRIALISATION </li></ul><ul><li>The data indicate that the rural population in India continues to rely on traditional biomass-based fuels (fuel wood, crop residues, and animal dung) for meeting its energy needs . </li></ul><ul><li>The rural populace constitutes nearly 70% of the population in India and 96% of the rural households use bio-fuels, primarily for cooking. </li></ul><ul><li>During the year 2001 – 02 the fuel wood consumption in India was 223 million tonnes and the consumption of animal dung and agro-waste was estimated at 130 million tonnes [1] </li></ul>
    7. 7. Sector Commercial Energy Sectoral Energy Consumption consumed as by fuel % MTOE % Coal Natural Petroleum Electric Gas Products Power Source : The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Delhi [2] Table 2 Sectoral Composition of Commercial Energy Consumption in India in 2001 – 2002 33% of electric power use in agriculture, 39% in industry and 20% residential . 100 298.67 Total 100 5.2 60.9 33.9 0 14 41.81 Others 100 27.6 71.3 1.1 0 10 29.87 Residential 100 1.5 98.5 0 0 22 65.71 Transport 100 10.9 13.6 2.4 73.1 49 146.35 Industry 100 89.2 9.5 1.3 0 5 14.93 Agriculture
    8. 8. GROWTH OF INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY (MW) 107973 79470 63290 42585 28448 16604 9027 4653 2695 1362
    9. 9. Table 3:Contribution of different fuel resources to primary and electrical energy Primary Energy (EJ), Year 2002-03 ( Estimated ) Energy Components Coal+ L Crude NG Hydro NUC Non-con Total Electricity (TWh), Year 2002-03 Electricity componenents Thermal Hydro Nuc Non-Con Total 1 Exa Joule = 23.9 MTOE =277.78TWh Sources: Annual Reports of the year 2002-03 of Ministries of Power, Coal, Oil & Natural Gas, Non-Conventional Energy, Central Electricity Authority and Department of Atomic Energy [5] 27.00 0.00 13.0 Neg Neg 70.81 7.97 % of above 3.63 0.00 0.03 Neg Neg 3.42 0.51 Import (EJ) 100.00 0.19 1.72 5.85 8.79 35.92 47.53 % of total 13.46 0.026 0.23 0.79 1.18 4.83 6.40 Contribution in EJ 100.0 0.3 3.0 10.3 86.4 % of above 637.84 2.13 19.24 65.66 550.82 Contribution in TWh
    10. 10. Share of electric power consumption <ul><li>Industry 39% </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture 33% </li></ul><ul><li>Transport 2.5% </li></ul><ul><li>Residential 20% </li></ul><ul><li>Other 5.5% </li></ul>The country has experienced severe shortages in electricity; during 2000–01, there was an average shortage of 7.8% and a peak shortage of 13.0% [6]. It has now increased to 10% and 15% respectively [7].
    11. 11. 1953-54 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 Table 1. Trends in Supply of Primary Energy in India MTOE Supply Estimated demand Source: Government of India, Planning Commission, Tenth Five Year Plan, Chapter 7 .3. [1] 1MTOE = 4.2 x 10 4 Tera Joules 723.93 563.21 437.69 305.19 208.30 147.05 117.20 90.38 Total Primary Energy Supply 170.25 151.30 139.02 122.07 108.48 86.72 74.38 64.13 Primary Non Commercial Energy Supply 553.68 411.91 298.67 183.12 99.82 60.33 42.82 26.25 Commercial Energy Supply 87.85 31.69 24.63 12.66 6.04 2.20 Net Imports 210.82 151.43 75.19 47.67 36.78 24.05 <ul><li>Total </li></ul>1.00 0.35 0.14 - - - - - Wind Power 14.16 6.04 5.15 1.60 0.78 0.63 - - Nuclear Power 18.54 12.73 6.37 6.16 4.00 2.17 0.67 0.24 Hydro Power 57.60 42.70 26.72 11.73 1.41 0.60 - - Natural Gas 185.40 144.58 32.03 33.92 10.79 7.01 0.46 0.19 Crude Oil 22.05 15.51 6.52 3.34 1.23 0.81 0.01 - Lignite 254.93 190.00 133.89 94.68 59.96 36.48 35.64 23.62 Coal
    12. 12. Table 4: A survey of energy growth rate projections for India Study Period Commercial Electrical % % 3.9 3.9 2042- 2052 4.6 4.5 2032-2042 4.9 4.5 2022-2032 6.3 4.6 2002- 2022 Grover and Chandra [ 5] 8 6.5 … . 1997- 2012 CEA-India [15] 7 2.0 … . 2051-2100 3.0 … . until 2050 4.0 … . until 2026 RS&RAE-UK [14] 6 5.4 5.2 1999-2020 IEEJ-Japan [13] 5 … . 1.8 2051-2100 … . 2.4 2026- 2050 … . 3.9 1990- 2025 EAGJ-Japan [12] 4 4.5 4.5 1997- 2020 IEO-USA [11] 3 3.9 3.7 2020- 2047 5.7 4.5 1997-2019 TERI-India [10] 2   4.3 2002-2012 SCE-India [1] 1
    13. 13. Major assumptions in Grover-Chandra study <ul><li>Population of India stabilizes by 2050 at a level of 1.5 billion. </li></ul><ul><li>Population growth Period </li></ul><ul><li>1.5 % 2001-2010 </li></ul><ul><li>1.2 % 2011-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>0.7 % 2021-2030 </li></ul><ul><li>0.4 % 2031-2040 </li></ul><ul><li>0.2 % 2041-2050 </li></ul><ul><li>0 % > 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>Population growth rate during 1991-2000 was 1.99% </li></ul>
    14. 14. Major assumptions in Grover-Chandra study <ul><li>2. There are two indicators pointing to the fact that India is already on a path of growth and development: </li></ul><ul><li>One is that the energy intensity of India (for the year 2001) is the same as in OECD Countries, when GDP is calculated in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). </li></ul><ul><li>Energy – GDP elasticity, which is the ratio of the growth rate in energy to the growth rate in GDP has been continuously decreasing since the mid-seventies from the steady value of 1.3 for the previous two decades. Electricity-GDP elasticity which was as high as 3.0 in the mid sixties has also been decreasing and in 1991-2000 was ~1.213; for the same period the primary energy–GDP elasticity has come down to 0.907. </li></ul>
    15. 15. Energy Intensity = Ratio of Total Primary Energy Supply to GDP TOE/ 000 95 US $; MER=MARKET EXCHANGE RATE PPP = PURCHASING POWER PARITY FOR CANADA,USA, INDIA,CHINA, OECD, NON-OECD EUROPE, RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND MIDDLE EAST CHART PREPARED FROM Key World Energy Statistics, Selected energy indicators for 2001, International Energy Agency, 2003 edition
    16. 16. Major assumptions in Grover-Chandra study <ul><li>3.The future GDP growth rates of India WILL FOLLOW the projections made by Dominic Wilson and Roopa Prushothamn, ‘Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050’ Global Economics Paper No. 99, Goldman Sachs, 1st Oct. 2003 ( https:// www.gs.com ) </li></ul><ul><li>4. The primary energy intensity fall in India will be 1.2 %/yr , extrapolating the electricity intensity fall from past data till 2022 and subsequently a constant fall of 1.2 %/yr, the growth rates of the primary energy and electrical energy have been estimated as follows. </li></ul>
    17. 17. Table 5. Estimated growth rates of primary and electrical energy in India Based on the growth rates given in the above table, the total electricity generation would reach about 8000 TWhr in the year 2052 with a per capita electricity consumption of 5300 kWhr per year. The installed capacity for electricity generation would be 1344GWe. By then, the cumulative energy expenditure will be about 2400 EJ. 3.9 3.9 2042 – 2052 4.6 4.5 2032 – 2042 4.9 4.5 2022 – 2032 6.3 4.6 2002 – 2022 Electricity Growth % per year Primary Energy Growth % per year Period
    18. 18. Meeting the Increasing Energy Demand in the Coming Decades <ul><li>Energy security means the availability of energy at all times in several forms, in sufficient quantities and at affordable prices. These conditions must prevail over the long term, if energy is to contribute to sustainable development. </li></ul><ul><li>However, it is a fact, that except for renewable energy sources, all other sources of energy, fossil and nuclear fuel, are unevenly distributed among countries. Import is therefore inevitable in the current globalized world environment. </li></ul><ul><li>Nevertheless every county has to evolve a strategy for energy security that ensures that a major portion of the energy is derived from indigenous sources. </li></ul>
    19. 19. Table 6.Primary Energy & Electricity Resources in India Resource Amount Thermal Energy Electricity potential EJ TWh GWYr GWeYr 20 56 487 1.8 100 -GWe Non –conventional 69 192 1,679 6.0 150 -GWe Hydro           Renewable 155,502 431,950 3,783,886 13,622   In Breeders         2,25,000 -T Thorium-Metal 42,231 117,308 1,027,616 3,699   In Fast breeders 328 913 7,992 28.9   In PHWR         61,000 -T Uranium-Metal           Nuclear:           Non-Fossil: 5,833 16,204 141,946 511 12 -BT Hydrocarbon 7,614 21,151 185,279 667 38 -BT Coal           Fossil:
    20. 20. The strategies and options for meeting the growth in energy demand in India therefore are multi-pronged : <ul><li>More efficient use of fuels and energy . </li></ul><ul><li>Exploration for increasing fossil fuel reserves. </li></ul><ul><li>Harnessing full potential for hydro-generation of electricity. </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing use of non-fossil resources : nuclear and non–conventional. </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive import of energy and energy resources–whenever and wherever possible based on geo-political considerations and feasibility from techno–economical consideration. </li></ul><ul><li>Search for alternate energy sources. </li></ul>
    21. 21. More Efficient Use of Fuels and Energy <ul><li>Reforms to provide an environment that, encourages free and fair competition in each element of the energy value chain and would attract capital from all sources – Public,Private,Domestic and Foreign. </li></ul><ul><li>The 2001 Energy Conservation Act which makes it mandatory, through a Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) to practice stringent energy conservation norms for energy generation, supply and consumption. </li></ul><ul><li>Bring down the average transmission and distribution losses to the range 8 – 15%. </li></ul><ul><li>There is also considerable scope for improving the energy efficiency in industry as well as in the Agriculture and Transport sectors . </li></ul><ul><li>There is also a move to reduce subsidies. Although subsidies cannot be completely eliminated, greater transparency and equity can be achieved by transferring all subsidies to Central/ State Government Budgets and ensuring that the benefits of subsidies reach the targeted beneficiaries. </li></ul>
    22. 22. Exploration for Increasing Fossil Fuel Reserves <ul><li>New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP), first announced in 1997, which permits foreign involvement in exploration, an activity long restricted to Indian state-owned firms. </li></ul><ul><li>Between 1999 and 2003, through four rounds of bidding, more than 100 blocks have been awarded to joint ventures between Indian and foreign companies and Indian Public Sector Consortiums. </li></ul><ul><li>Another strategy is to encourage Indian companies to tap opportunities available for exploration rights abroad. The major Indian Company ONGC has acquired such rights from Russia (Sakhalin-I) and Vietnam. </li></ul><ul><li>Other actions include increasing the refining capacity, improved/ enhanced oil recovery, strategic storing of crude and minimizing the oil intensity of the economy without compromising on the pace of economic development. </li></ul>
    23. 23. Harnessing Full Potential for Hydro-Generation of Electricity <ul><li>Viable hydro-potential = 84 GW at 60% load factor </li></ul><ul><li>( 1,48,700 MW installed capacity) . </li></ul><ul><li>Only about 18% of this potential is installed; another 11% is under various stages of development . </li></ul><ul><li>It is planned to exploit all possible hydro-energy sources. </li></ul><ul><li>An initiative for addition of 50000MW hydro-capacity has been launched in May 2003 . </li></ul><ul><li>It is further envisaged that the full hydro- potential of 150GW would be installed by the year 2026. </li></ul>
    24. 24. Table 6.Primary Energy & Electricity Resources in India Resource Amount Thermal Energy Electricity potential EJ TWh GWYr GWeYr 20 56 487 1.8 100 -GWe Non –conventional 69 192 1,679 6.0 150 -GWe Hydro           Renewable 155,502 431,950 3,783,886 13,622   In Breeders         2,25,000 -T Thorium-Metal 42,231 117,308 1,027,616 3,699   In Fast breeders 328 913 7,992 28.9   In PHWR         61,000 -T Uranium-Metal           Nuclear:           Non-Fossil: 5,833 16,204 141,946 511 12 -BT Hydrocarbon 7,614 21,151 185,279 667 38 -BT Coal           Fossil:
    25. 25. 10 GWe × 33 Yrs 420 GWe × 100Yrs 500GWe × 300 Yrs
    26. 26. Developed 540 Mwe PHWRs &Construction in progress; Unit size being scaled up to 680 MWe Developed Front End & Back End Technologies of Complete Fuel Cycle FIRST STAGE Design for 500 MWe PFBR developed. Construction to commence in June 2004 . SECOND STAGE Fast Breeder Test Reactor (40 MWt ) Set up Indian Nuclear Power Programme: Current Status THIRD STAGE Experimental reactor with U233 fuel in operation. Thorium Bundles in PHWRs. AHWR-300 Mwe being developed in BARC. Technology Demonstration for electricity generation from Thourium. Bridge between the I & III Stages to be Launched in X plan Established ComprehensiveIndigenous Capabilities for Designing, Equipment Manufacturing, Constructing, Commissioning, O&Mof 220 MWe PHWRs
    27. 27. Indian Nuclear Power Programme <ul><li> 14 reactors at 6 sites under operation 2,770 2,770 </li></ul><ul><li>Tarapur, Rawatbhata, Kalpakkam, </li></ul><ul><li>Narora, Kakrapar and Kaiga </li></ul><ul><li>6 PHWRs under construction at 1,960 4,730 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tarapur (2x540 MWe),Kaiga (2x220 MWe), </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RAPS-5&6(2x220 MWe) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2 LWRs under construction at 2,000 6,730 Kudankulam(2x1000 MWe) </li></ul><ul><li>PFBR at Kalpakkam ( 1 X 500 MWe) 500 7,230 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(Pre-project activity in progress) </li></ul></ul><ul><li> Projects planned till 2020 13,900 21,130 </li></ul><ul><li>PHWRs(8x700 MWe), FBRs(4x500 MWe), </li></ul><ul><li>LWRs(6x1000 MWe), AHWR(1x300 MWe) </li></ul><ul><li> TOTAL by 2020 21,180 MWe </li></ul>CAPACITY (MWe) CUMULATIVE CAPACITY (MWe) REACTOR TYPE AND CAPACITIES
    28. 28. Competitive with contemporary coal thermal. Concept of introducing pooled tariff is being tried on regional basis. UNIT TAPS MAPS NAPS KAPS TARIFF (P / kWh) 91.96 201.26 236.13 280.19 NUCLEAR POWER - TARIFFS (Apr 2002) KAIGA - 1&2 RAPS - 3 &4 RAPS - 2 225 310/325 296/310 Year of start Commercial Operation 1969 1981 1984/86 1991/92 1993/95 2000 2000 245 Wtd . Average
    29. 30. Projects Under Construction U5 – May 07 U6 – Nov 08 On Schedule 2x220 RAPP - 5&6 U1 – Sept 07 U2 – Sept 08 On Schedule 2x1000 KK - 1&2 U3 – Dec 06 U4 – June 07 On Schedule 2x220 Kaiga - 3&4 U4 – Oct 05 U3 - July 06 On Schedule. 2x540 TAPP - 3&4 Scheduled Commercial Operation Physical Progress Capacity MWe Project
    30. 31. <ul><li>Annual electricity generation would increase from about 638 TWh in 2002-03 to about 7957 TWhr in 2052-53. </li></ul><ul><li>Approximate percentage contributions of various resources towards electricity generation in the year 2052-53 will be coal-47%, hydrocarbon-16%, hydro-8%, non-conventional renewable-4 % and nuclear-26 %. </li></ul><ul><li>Annual primary energy consumption would increase from about 13.5 EJ in 2002-03 to about 117 EJ in 2052-53. </li></ul>
    31. 32. <ul><li>Total Installed power capacity will go up from about 137 GWe in 2002-03 to about 1344 GWe in 2052-53. </li></ul><ul><li>Installed capacity distribution will be coal-46%, hydrocarbon-15%, gas-10%, hydro-11%, non-conventional renewable-7%, and nuclear-20%. </li></ul>
    32. 33. Increasing Use of Non-Conventional Energy <ul><li>Today, India has perhaps the only Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources in the world . </li></ul><ul><li>The country has the largest solar energy program, the second largest biogas and improved cook stoves program and the fifth largest wind power program in the world. </li></ul><ul><li>The renewable energy sources have begun to emerge as an attractive option, sometimes the only one, to provide light and power to areas too remote for grid electrification. </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion of renewable energy sources is an integral component of the country’s strategy for sustainable development . </li></ul>
    33. 34. Table 7. Renewable energy potential and achievements in India[24] Sources/ Technologies Units Potential Achievements 2002-03 35.2 120 million Improved biomass chulhas (cookstoves) 3.5 12 million Biogas plants 0.70 140 million m 2 collector area Solar water heating 121 (MW) 20 MW/km 2 Solar photovoltaics(SPV) 26 1,700 MW Urban and Industrial waste based power 350 3,500   MW Biomass cogeneration 53 16,000   MW Biomass gasifiers 483 19,500 MW Biomass power 1,510 15,000 MW Small hydro power (upto 25 MW) 1870 45,000 MW Wind Power
    34. 35. Co-Generation in India: Status And Prospects for Renewable Energy Sources <ul><li>The growing gap between energy supply and energy demand, has led to widespread co-generation . </li></ul><ul><li>Indian households and firms are increasingly reliant on diesel generators (DG) and, for certain applications, inverters and uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), for energy security/backup. </li></ul><ul><li>The total installed capacity today of 136973 MWe includes 29000 MWe of captive power capacity and 1,07,973 MWe of electrical utilities; the captive power capacity is nearly 27% 0f the capacity of utilities . </li></ul><ul><li>The Indian UPS market size is also growing at about 300MW/ year (Table 8). </li></ul>
    35. 36. Table 8. Indian UPS market segments and growth - 4% Other Noise, space, fuel/ lubrication handling Residential - 25% 6% Online Transactions Processing (e.g., finance and transportation) Remote locations, criticality of service 30% 10% Hospitals/ Clinics Noise,space, inconvenience of handling fuel/lubrication 10% 75% IT and Telecom Factors favoring RGs over DGs Annual growth % share Segment
    36. 37. Figure 2. Cash outflow per MWh, for daytime use, @ 7% finance, 5% p.a. fuel price rise, 27% conversion efficiency, 1MWp DG and RG at $200,000 and $2,500,000 capital cost, 60% and 30% utilization and 3.5% and 1.25% p.a. maintenance (DG: overhaul, RG: batteries ) RG compare favorably with DG over a 20-year horizon as shown in
    37. 38. Figure 3. Hybrid-source UPS (left), SPV array and wind generator (right)
    38. 39. Table 7. Renewable energy potential and achievements in India[24] Sources/ Technologies Units Potential Achievements 35.2 120 million Improved biomass chulhas (cookstoves) 3.5 12 million Biogas plants 0.70 140 million m 2 collector area Solar water heating 121 (MW) 20 MW/km 2 Solar photovoltaics(SPV) 26 1,700 MW Urban and Industrial waste based power 350 3,500   MW Biomass cogeneration 53 16,000   MW Biomass gasifiers 483 19,500 MW Biomass power 1,510 15,000 MW Small hydro power (upto 25 MW) 1870 45,000 MW Wind Power
    39. 40. <ul><li>Total Installed power capacity will go up from about 137 GWe in 2002-03 to about 1344 GWe in 2052-53. </li></ul><ul><li>Installed capacity distribution will be coal-46%, hydrocarbon-15%, gas-10%, hydro-11%, non-conventional renewable-7%, and nuclear-20%. </li></ul>
    40. 41. Search for Alternate Energy Sources <ul><li>Th/U-233 cycle will be the mainstay beyond 2050. </li></ul><ul><li>The other alternate energy sources relevant for the future are: </li></ul><ul><li>Coal bed methane, </li></ul><ul><li>Gas hydrates, </li></ul><ul><li>Hydrogen and </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear fusion. </li></ul>
    41. 42. Th/U-233 Cycle <ul><li>Mastery of Th fuel cycle- extraction, fuel fabrication, irradiation to produce </li></ul><ul><li>U-233,reprocessing,refabrication. </li></ul><ul><li>1984:PURNIMA 2, Reactor experiment . </li></ul><ul><li>1996:KAMINI 30 kW Reactor at Kalpakkam . </li></ul><ul><li>Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AWHR), which extends the technology of PHWR for Th/U-233cycle . </li></ul><ul><li>Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) in which high energy neutrons from a spallation reaction are directed to a sub-critical reactor containing thorium to produce U-233. </li></ul>
    42. 43. Coal Bed Methane (CBM) <ul><li>India has an estimated 1000 Billion cubic meters of coal bed methane (CBM). </li></ul><ul><li>A demonstration project is under implementation with UNDP support. </li></ul><ul><li>Exploration and production activities are in progress. </li></ul><ul><li>Development of CBM is important as it is a potential source of clean energy. </li></ul>
    43. 44. Gas Hydrates <ul><li>There is a potential of 6156 cubic meters of gas hydrates and 600 million tons of oil shale in the Indian seabed. </li></ul><ul><li>There is a program to exploit these in the future. </li></ul><ul><li>For developing the technology of gas hydrates the Department of Ocean Development has a collaborative venture with the Russian Federation. </li></ul>
    44. 45. Hydrogen <ul><li>A scenario, in which, hydrogen will replace hydrocarbons as the major primary energy source, particularly for automobiles. </li></ul><ul><li>While hydrogen (in water) is so abundant in the earth, we need energy to produce it. </li></ul><ul><li>Role for nuclear energy in the hydrogen economy. </li></ul><ul><li>- Dissociation of water </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear radiation </li></ul><ul><li>Thermal </li></ul><ul><li>Electrochemical </li></ul>
    45. 46. Nuclear Fusion Technology <ul><li>Both plasma and laser fusion studies are in progress. </li></ul><ul><li>India is also assessing the advantages of joining the international cooperative program. </li></ul>
    46. 47. CONCLUSION <ul><li>The demand for energy is expected to grow significantly in the next five decades, nine-fold to 117 EJ in the case of primary energy and twelve and half times to 8000 TWhe in the case of electricity. </li></ul><ul><li>The concern for energy security will bring in an increasing share for hydro, non-conventional and nuclear energy in the primary commercial and electrical energy by 2052. </li></ul>
    47. 48. CONCLUSION <ul><li>The share of nuclear energy will increase to 25%, hydro to 11%, and non–conventional to 4%. </li></ul><ul><li>The full potential of hydro, 6EJ would be reached by 2026. </li></ul><ul><li>The Th/U-233 cycle, when successfully developed can give India energy security for five or more centuries. </li></ul><ul><li>At the same time there is a need to look for new and alternate energy sources like coal bed methane, gas hydrates, hydrogen and nuclear fusion. </li></ul>
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×