2009-nelson2.ppt

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  • 08/06/10
  • 08/06/10
  • 08/06/10
  • 08/06/10
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  • 08/06/10 2006% 39.1% 31.2% 21.3% 6.5% 1.1% 2007% 36.2% 31.8% 22.8% 7.0% 1.3% 2007 as % of 2006 117% 129% 136% 137% 149%
  • 08/06/10
  • 08/06/10
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  • 2009-nelson2.ppt

    1. 1. Rod Nelson Schlumberger Erice
    2. 2. Technical Innovation – A Constant Wild Card
    3. 3. 1. Industry Macro
    4. 4. Oil Supply and Demand—The Macro View Source: BP Statistical Review, IEA Oil Annual Summary, Monthly Oil Market Report, Medium-Term Oil Market Report, Lehman/Barclays. Revised 0309 E&P Expenditures ($ billion) Spare Capacity Oil Production (million bopd) Oil Price $/bbl World Capacity Projected Growth in Supply and Demand World Demand Oil Price ($/bbl) E&P Expenditure
    5. 5. 4-7% Production Decline IEO 2008 Demand Range 2015 30 – 45 MBOE/D 2030 70-100 MBOE/D Existing Production Capacity Conventional OPEC Conventional non OPEC Unconventional and biofuels 2007 2015 2030 Required New Capacity Increasing demand and natural production decline create growing need for significant new production capacity MILLION BARRELS PER DAY Source: NPC 2008
    6. 6. Proven Reserves versus Production Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 Non OPEC OPEC
    7. 7. Drilling Intensity in the United States1954-2007 Source: EIA, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
    8. 8. Drilling Intensity in Libya Source: Includes Data Supplied by IHS—Copyright 2008 All Rights Reserved Drilling Intensity Oil Production
    9. 9. Long-Term Oil Supply Cost Curve Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 Source: IEA Resources, Billion Barrels 20 0 40 60 80 100 120 140 Production Cost, $ 2008 Produced MENA Other Conven-tional Oil CO 2 EOR EOR Arctic Heavy Oil & Bitumen Oil Shales Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater 1,000 0 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Gas to Liquids Coal to Liquids
    10. 10. Natural Gas—A Global Issue <ul><li>Average annual growth in demand for natural gas greater than that for oil </li></ul><ul><li>Largest increases in demand in OECD and the Middle East, as well as in China, India, and Africa </li></ul><ul><li>Largest market in North America where unconventional resources have been unlocked by intensity of technology </li></ul><ul><li>LNG supplies and trade grow with increasing global interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Total investment of $5.5 trillion required from 2007 to 2030 </li></ul>Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
    11. 11. Why Gas? <ul><li>Significant Untapped Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Developing global LNG market </li></ul><ul><li>Geographically / Politically Dispersed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Cleaner” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lead time for Power Generation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear 10 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Coal 5 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gas 1-2 years </li></ul></ul>280 260 170 2,550 500 2,000 400 <ul><li>Natural Gas Worldwide Proved Reserves (Tcf) </li></ul><ul><li>(Oil & Gas Journal) </li></ul>
    12. 12. Significant Unconventional Gas Resources <ul><li>Worldwide Gas In Place </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Conventional” 12,000 Tcf </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tight 14,000 Tcf </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shale 15,000 Tcf </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Coal Bed 6,000 Tcf </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrates >100,000sTcf </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Worldwide consumed to date 3,000 Tcf </li></ul>3,800 2,100 550 1,300 650 1,550 5,800 <ul><li>Estimate of Shale Gas in Place (Tcf) </li></ul><ul><li>(Rogner 1997) </li></ul>
    13. 13. Summary—Energy is a Long-Term Industry <ul><li>World energy demand forecast to increase by about 45% by 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Fossil fuels will supply 80% of this as alternative energies lack scale and investment within this timeframe </li></ul><ul><li>Oil demand growth strongest in the developing economies and weakest in the OECD. Natural gas a global issue </li></ul><ul><li>OPEC production increases as non-OPEC production peaks but increasing production hinges on adequate and timely investment and new technology </li></ul><ul><li>Non-conventional resources will play a greater role in the energy mix </li></ul><ul><li>Energy and the environment are inextricably linked with global energy-related CO2 emissions increasing 45% by 2030 </li></ul>Source: IEA WEO 2008
    14. 14. 2. Technology
    15. 15. Technology Challenges <ul><li>Deepwater exploration will need a changing technology mix. The priority will be on mitigating risk and on service execution </li></ul><ul><li>Enhancing production from existing fields will require improved workflows, faster well construction, improved completions and better efficiency. The focus will be on increasing performance </li></ul><ul><li>Technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon production will become more important. Service intensity will increase </li></ul><ul><li>Technology development is a long-term commitment that must be maintained through the cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental footprint is increasingly important and must be reduced </li></ul>
    16. 16. R&E Investment and Hydrocarbon Resources Yet to be Explored Known Reserves Deep and Harsh Environments Unconventional Hydrocarbons
    17. 17. R&E Spend versus Hydrocarbon Resources Source: Company Data
    18. 18. The Value of Technology Integration Pre-Drill Prognosis Integrated Drilling Update Data Acquisition While Drilling MWD telemetry Seismic Reflector Sea Floor Seismic Reflector Seismic Reflector Drilling Operations Support Center
    19. 19. Technology Deployed—Productive Drilling Actual Trajectory Planned Trajectory
    20. 20. Int Technology for Maximum Reservoir Contact <ul><ul><li>Stemming decline and maximizing recovery requires increased reservoir contact—in old wells and new fields </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Applies in North American shale gas, fields in Western Siberia and in Saudi Arabia for maximized drainage efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Planning and accuracy of modeled and executed processes are vital. Data integration must be done in real time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plays to the strengths of Wireline, Drilling & Measurements, Completions and Well Services enabled by Schlumberger real-time capabilities </li></ul></ul>
    21. 21. Waterflood and Recovery Monitoring Down-hole permanent pressure gauge, electrical array and production logging tool continually measure pressure, resistivity and injection rate 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Depth, m 0 5 10 15 20 Radius, m Open-hole completion Slotted tubing Current Return Potential Reference
    22. 22. Technology Development—InSitu Downhole Fluid Analysis 80 Revenue Patents Publications First patents, publications on fluid ID First DFA patent Revenue 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Number of Patents/Publications <ul><li>Fluid Identification </li></ul><ul><li>Oil/Water ratio </li></ul><ul><li>Fluid Color </li></ul><ul><li>Gas Detection </li></ul>Optical Fluid Analysis C1 C2-C5 C6+ Compositional Fluid Analysis 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
    23. 23. What’s Unconventional - Heavy Oil Technology
    24. 24. US Gas Rig Activity and Production 2009
    25. 25. Fracturing Technology in the Barnett Shale Time, days Gas Rate, MMcf/month Water fraccing in horizontal wells (after 6/1/2003) Slickwater fraccing in vertical wells (after 1/1/1998) Large crosslinked fraccing in vertical wells (after 1/1/1991 and 1/1/1998) Small crosslinked or foam fraccing in vertical wells (before 1/1/1991) Data source: Schlumberger Oilfield Review 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
    26. 26. Integration of Resources & Data <ul><li>Maximizing Reservoir Contact – </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-Stage Frac with Microseismic Monitoring </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major enabler for Unconventional Gas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Greater understanding of Frac Treatments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fracture length </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fracture orientation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Zonal differences </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Asymmetry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real-time interpretation and control </li></ul></ul>
    27. 27. Summary <ul><li>The world is endowed with significantly more conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources than most realize </li></ul><ul><li>Short-term risk of under investment, both in hydrocarbon supplies and in renewable energy technology </li></ul><ul><li>The world’s need to increase production capacity, improve recovery, and exploit reserves, while mitigating carbon dioxide emissions creates an environment where technology development and deployment will be key </li></ul><ul><li>Technology will continue to evolve and enable economic development of what is today unconventional and uneconomic, the US shale gas case is a good example of this </li></ul>

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