60 YearsBP Statistical Reviewof World Energybp.com/60yearsstatisticalreview1951–2011
What’s inside60 Years 11	 Celebrating 60 years2	 How it all began4 	 The first map of a global trade6 	 Branching out8 	 T...
How it all beganIt all started in April 1952 when the central planningdepartment of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC)ci...
4 60 Years 60 Years 5Another feature that remains today is the speedof compilation. Jamieson released the 1952 statistics ...
6 60 Years 60 Years 7One effect of going public was the disappearance ofpricing information. Back in the old days an outfi...
Like a lot of oil price hikes, the 1973 crisis was mainlyput down to political tensions and the Arab-Israeli War.The Revie...
makers. The BP Statistical Review of World Energysuddenly became required reading in political circles.As former BP direct...
In the mid-1990s, energy was not only in the news forits impact on the economy, but also because of climatechange. With th...
In 2007, Christof Rühl replaced Peter Davies as chiefeconomist and, if anything, expanded the process ofanalysing the data...
It is hardly surprising that Bethan Thomas at the BPArchive at Warwick University gets regular demandsfor copies of the ea...
BP Statistical Review of World Energy - 60 years
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5

BP Statistical Review of World Energy - 60 years


Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

BP Statistical Review of World Energy - 60 years

  1. 1. 60 YearsBP Statistical Reviewof World Energybp.com/60yearsstatisticalreview1951–2011
  2. 2. What’s inside60 Years 11 Celebrating 60 years2 How it all began4 The first map of a global trade6 Branching out8 The impact of 19739 A lesson in numbers10 Fuel diversity11 The editor explains the numbers12 Sustaining objectivity13 Pro bono14 Into the future16 Then and nowBP’s Statistical Review, and the essential databasesthat support it, is one of the fundamental resourcesfor understanding world energy. Rigorous, clear,consistent, wide-ranging – and the product of a greatdeal of hard work and commitment over six decades– the Review is the global ‘go-to’ source for decisionmakers and analysts around the world. Those tablesof numbers, in their myriad units, tell an extraordinarynarrative of how the world has changed – and thechallenges ahead. I not only use it, but I read itregularly because it is such a great story.Daniel YerginChairman, IHS Cambridge Energy Research AssociatesChristof RühlGroup Chief Economist and Vice PresidentThe BP Statistical Review of World Energy is now 60years old. It is the longest running compilation of globalenergy statistics available. Collected down the years, ithas become widely recognized as a key source of dataon energy markets, useful to business, policy, academia,journalists and the public alike. It seems fair to say that ithas become a crucial resource, underpinning with factsdiscussions about energy or the environment. Over the past 60 years, the Review has expandedfrom six typewritten pages plus one page for graphicalillustrations to an internet database that can be used forvery detailed analysis. Behind the published data areabout 300,000 single data entries – at the last count,and growing every day, of course. Yet, in a world evermore concerned with the commercial value of data, it isfreely available to all who wish to use it. Above all, thereis no wishful thinking, no politics and no spin. It is simplya portrait in numbers of global energy production,consumption, trade, reserves and prices. These numbers contain the story of energy inthe last half of the 20th century and the beginning ofthis one. They illustrate global transitions in the fuelswe use and how we use them, and our preoccupationsand concerns about this important element of theglobal economy. I believe it is therefore worth marking theReview’s birthday, to tell the story of how it startedand how it grew. I hope you enjoy the story.Celebrating60 years World crude oil production 1920-1951Reproduced from the 1951 Review
  3. 3. How it all beganIt all started in April 1952 when the central planningdepartment of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC)circulated a paper entitled The Oil Industry in 1951:Statistical Review. Hammered out on a typewriter,it amounted to six pages of statistics and text plusa further page containing a graph. It was circulatedto only eight people. The first paragraph – to thosein the know – was particularly poignant: ‘There was a record increase of some 70million tons in World Production in 1951 despite thesuspension of Persian supplies in June, equivalent tothe loss of about 20 million tons in the year. This losswas more than made up by the increased productionin Kuwait and Saudi Arabia so that the Middle Eastas a whole showed a rise of nearly 9 million tons.’ For William (Jamie) Jamieson, who put thenumbers together, the reason for the 20 million tonscollapse in output in Iran – the ‘Persian supplies’ –was obvious. AIOC, the precursor of BP, had beenkicked out of the country, losing around 75% of itsrefining capacity and two-thirds of its crude supplies.Jamieson himself had been in Abadan, trying toreconcile the Iranian government’s number of barrelsper day produced with what he figured had actuallygone into the refinery. Now back in London, he wasasked to put together some numbers on global oilproduction and consumption.2 60 Years 60 Years 3We look forward to the BP Statistical Review ofWorld Energy for its insightful analysis and clearlyexpressed data. Like OPEC’s World Oil Outlook,we believe it supports the formation of realisticand objective views of the global energy industry.Abdalla Salem El BadriSecretary General, Organization of the Petroleum ExportingCountriesProved petroleum reservesReproduced from the 1951 ReviewToday, it seems difficult to understand just howlittle data there was about oil production at the time.There was no International Energy Agency and,outside the US government, precious little statisticalmaterial existed at all. For fear of accusations ofcollusion, the big oil companies were reluctant totalk to each other even about something so basic.Nonetheless, aided by the statistician ‘Dusty’ Miller,Jamieson set about finding out as much as he could. What resulted was an estimate that global oilproduction was 607.3 million tons (12.2 millionbarrels per day) and had been rising at the rate of9.7% per annum since 1946. If Iranian productionwas stalled for political reasons, the rest of the worldwas more than making up for it. In fact, as BP’shistorian James Bamburg has pointed out, Iranprobably suffered more from its actions than AIOC,for not only did other companies effectively boycottIran’s oil, but AIOC rather rapidly found alternativesources, notably in Kuwait.BP’s annual Statistical Review of World Energy iswidely used in the Chinese energy sector. Upon its60th anniversary, I would like to extend mywarmest congratulations.Zhang GuobaoFormer Minister and Head of the National EnergyAdministration, China
  4. 4. 4 60 Years 60 Years 5Another feature that remains today is the speedof compilation. Jamieson released the 1952 statistics inMarch 1953. Now the greatly enlarged Review comesout in June of each following year. This is far faster thaneither the United Nations Energy Statistics or the generalreleases of the International Energy Agency. Life in BP was undoubtedly different then. As Inglis,who went on to edit the Review, recalls, you could besent home for failing to wear a suit and tie. And thesurroundings of old Britannic House still bore the scarsof the London blitz. The company was still trying to keep the numbersthe team produced to itself. The 1954 Review statessternly: ‘Information from this review may not bepublished without the express permission of themanager, General Department.’ Yet the Review wasalready being circulated to BP offices worldwide. Thestern notices disappeared in 1955, and the 1956 editionappeared with the BP shield logo. It proudly notes thatthis ‘is the symbol of the world-wide organization of theBritish Petroleum Company Limited’. The Review wasquietly going public.As Ken Inglis – who joined BP in 1954, the year it wasformed – puts it, the crisis in Iran propelled the companyinto the 20th century. No small part of this process wasthat somebody somewhere was actually trying to putnumbers on global oil production and consumption. Indeed, such was the success of Jamieson’s effortsthat AIOC’s senior management demanded a paper for1952 that was double the size. While Miller began tocalculate five-year moving averages of the growingproduction on graphs, Jamieson started to hand draw piecharts, and to show the numbers in columns. The result was surprisingly sophisticated. It includedsupply and demand balances, world refinery capacitiesand yields, the size of the global tanker fleet and even aworld consumption figure of 629 million tons (12.6 millionbarrels per day or Mb/d), admittedly estimated, butgrowing at 4.5% and following a growth in production of30 million tonnes in the year. In spite of Jamieson’s ownexperience in Iran, barrels per day had yet to make anappearance and the numbers used were the imperial orlong tons, equivalent to 1.01604 metric tonnes. Nonetheless, one staple feature of the Review stillfound today first appeared. Jamieson introduced a map ofthe trade in crude, showing in lines of various thicknesseswhat was being shipped around the world. It must havebeen a revelation. North America’s growing demand wasthere for all to see. Around 81 million tons (1.6Mb/d) ofthe US’s production of 100 million tons (2.01Mb/d)were staying where they were and another 87 million(1.74Mb/d) were being imported there from theCaribbean and South America. Given that Europe hadpreviously been dependent on US supplies in the 1940s,its growing dependence on Middle Eastern oil could nothave been more graphically portrayed.The first mapReproduced from the 1952 ReviewThe first map of a global tradeThe Excel format is brilliant both for analysis andwhen it comes to putting together presentations,whether on long-term trends in prices, fuel shares,import dependency or the like, coupled with thereassurance that the source provides.David NewberyEmeritus Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge
  5. 5. 6 60 Years 60 Years 7One effect of going public was the disappearance ofpricing information. Back in the old days an outfit calledSocony-Vacuum printed a price list of Arabian crudes.What is now called Saudi Light at 36º went for $1.75 perbarrel in 1951. Meanwhile across the Atlantic, the Officeof Price Stabilization was enforcing an official priceceiling. Yet when the Review went public all referencesto pricing disappeared until 1984, when a list of ‘officialcrude prices’ from 1973–1983 was printed. The unexpected consequence of the industry’sreluctance to talk about prices was the invention ofthe ‘price reporter’. The legendary Wanda Jablonskifounded Petroleum Intelligence Weekly in 1961 andJan Nasmyth founded Petroleum Argus in 1968 to fillthe gap. Pricing was in fact a tricky subject. The officialprices were often misleading, and when the ‘Rotterdamspot market’ emerged in the mid-1970s, it wasimpossible to quote a representative monthly number.Now, of course, there is a daily price in every businesspaper and the Review has a graph of them going backto 1861 in real and nominal numbers. In the last years of the 1950s, the Review hadclearly come to stay. It went into colour in 1957 and, in1959, no doubt to everybody’s relief, started to countin barrels per day. A page of conversion factors wasadded for the perplexed. To show the dramatic increasein demand, the 1960 Review shows the per capitaconsumption of oil for most of the industrializedcountries and takes its first stab at calculating worldenergy demand across the fuels in barrels per dayof oil equivalent. According to Tony Scanlan, who was there at thetime and subsequently edited the Review in the 1970s,the company had started to become much moreinterested in the place of oil in the wider context ofenergy. In the 1961 edition, graphs appeared for theUS, Western Europe, USSR and the Rest of the World,charting gas, solid fuels and electricity defined in milliontons of oil equivalent. By the late 1960s, a primaryenergy section had emerged and there were numbersnot only for solid fuels, but for hydropower and nuclearenergy as well.Yet, in the first years of the 1970s, there was a widerundercurrent of concern for those prepared to look.In 1971, the US produced 469.9 million tons of oil(9.4Mb/d) but only added another 0.7 million in thefollowing year. Consumption, by contrast, hit 719.3million (14.5Mb/d) in 1971 and demand grew by another56.9 million in 1972. US oil output was no longergrowing but demand was increasing at more than 5%per year. In 1973, the gap widened even further withconsumption hitting 814.7 million (16.3Mb/d) and outputfalling to 456.2 million (9.2Mb/d). According to Scanlan, the British governmentrequested information about these potential imbalancesbetween supply and demand from BP in the monthsbuilding up to the 1973 crisis. For the compilers of theReview, the growth in world dependency on the MiddleEast was so obvious that they produced a bar chart inthe 1973 edition that showed not only the increase in‘Arab’-sourced supplies but where it was going. Notonly had such supplies grown from 6Mb/d to more than18Mb/d in the decade, but demand from the Westernhemisphere had tripled. More and more oil was goinginto the US.Branching out Arab sourcesReproduced from the 1973 ReviewI have found the Statistical Review of WorldEnergy to be a valuable source of objective,timely energy market information.Alan GreenspanFormer Chairman of the Board of Governors, FederalReserve System
  6. 6. Like a lot of oil price hikes, the 1973 crisis was mainlyput down to political tensions and the Arab-Israeli War.The Review, however, points out additional factors atwork. In fact, faced with rising oil demand and slowingproduction in the US, President Nixon had liftedrestrictions on the importation of Middle Eastern crude,and a tanker shortage rapidly developed as the crudeflowed west. Before long, the cost of shipping a barrelof oil was more than the posted price of the crude. Right from the start the Review had been a littleobsessed with the tanker fleet, listing them by flag, bysize, by age and by ownership. By the early 1960s, therewere even calculations as to availability. Of course, atthe time, BP had a substantial fleet itself. But, if the1973 crisis was exacerbated by a shortage of vessels,anybody who cared to look at the numbers in theReview would realize that it was not going to last.It listed the existing fleet as amounting to 220 milliondeadweight tons (dwt), but also noted that the amounton order amounted to 197.6 million dwt. So the fleet was going to virtually double in lessthan a decade and the market duly crashed. Accordingto Scanlan, owners ended up virtually begging forcargoes by the early 1980s and the Review ceased tocover the issue. The 1973 crisis brought another more importantchange to the 1974 Review, which went unannouncedat the time. It shifted its numbers from the imperiallong ton to the metric ton or tonne. It may have beenunannounced, but it did not go unnoticed, at least bythe compilers of the data. Thousands of past statisticshad to be recalculated! But 1973 also shifted the world’s oil industryperception of itself. If OPEC countries were going todominate production, the international oil companieshad to diversify geographically and start taking moreinterest in alternative sources of energy. And todiversify, they needed a lot more detailed data onother fuels, as well as where to find them.The impact of 1973The new information sought by the energy industrywas initially provided by supplying gas, coal, nuclearand ‘water power’ statistics. These were tucked awayat the back of the Review – which had now reached32 pages – but they were still revealing. For example,between 1968 and 1978, Western Europe’s natural gasconsumption was rising at 16.4% per annum. Over thesame period and until the Three Mile Island accident in1979, the US nuclear industry had expanded 22-fold.Globally, primary energy demand was rising at almost4% per year. If the use of million barrels of oil equivalent forcoal, gas and even nuclear fitted the oil mindset of thecompilers, it did at least start to make it possible tomake direct comparisons. Cubic metres and kilowatthours would have to wait. Perhaps the greatest pointerto the future was the chart of gas versus oil reserves.A pie chart made it obvious that if OPEC had aroundtwo-thirds of the oil, the USSR was sitting on a thirdof the gas. Nonetheless, oil was not neglected. Perhaps themost startling number seemed to suggest to the AIOCretirees that history was repeating itself. With Iran in theturmoil of revolution, its production of crude collapsedfrom 260.4 million tonnes (5.2Mb/d) in 1978 to 155.6million (3.1Mb/d) the following year, a fall of 40.2%.This created a second global price shock and anotherburst of inflation to follow that of 1973. On the exploration front, the compilers tried toanalyse the productivity of individual wells in 1979 andthis highlighted an astonishing difference. With morethan 500,000 wells, the US was getting an average of20 barrels per day from each. By contrast, the outputof an average well in the Middle East was around 5,500barrels per day. Meanwhile, a chart about oil productusage showed that Western Europe and Japan wereusing less and less fuel oil for electricity production,the net decrease between 1973 and 1979 being around50 million tonnes. The lesson for refiners was thatdemand was moving in favour of the lighter barrel andsomething would have to be done to find a use for theheavier fractions. As always, the numbers told the story. The impactof the Iranian revolution on the global economy wasclear. And statistics about well productivity and shiftingpatterns of oil product demand pointed out the need forimproved technology, notably more horizontal drilling,enhanced recovery and greater refinery sophistication.A lesson in numbersProductivity of producing wellsReproduced from the 1979 Review8 60 Years 60 Years 9BP’s Statistical Review is a great tool not onlyfor energy market analysts, but also for macro-economists, finance experts and, rather often,even for politicians. Happy birthday!Alexey KudrinDeputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance,Russian FederationGrowth in tanker sizeReproduced from the 1973 Review
  7. 7. makers. The BP Statistical Review of World Energysuddenly became required reading in political circles.As former BP director John Buchanan puts it: “Havinga quantative base to stand on makes for a very powerfulweapon for analysis.” This was in tune with the times and the Reviewwas thus in demand. While BP’s education team hadpreviously created a simple version for schools oncomputer diskette, the first comprehensive versionon disk for governments, academia and the rest of theoil industry came out in 1987 – one of the very firstexperiments in this kind of data distribution. By 1991,virtually all of the existing data was available on disk inboth Lotus and Excel formats for a fee of £120. If thissounds simple, it wasn’t. The data in this new formatwent all the way back to 1965, a formidable task giventhat it required finding and filling in the numbers for anever wider selection of countries.numbers was not so difficult; indeed BP Gas hadbeen collecting its own in another publication, whichwas subsequently merged with the Review in 1996. Coal was another matter. At the back of the bookfor some years there had been a chart of calorific values.This pointed out that to get to a million tonnes of oilequivalent it was necessary to multiply a million tonnesof coal by 0.67, a million tonnes of lignite by 0.33 anda million tonnes of peat by 0.20. In short, in terms ofheating, ‘coal’ was very difficult to define. Leaving aside the fact that coal statistics werein roughly the same state as crude oil statistics in the1940s, there was another problem. Coal divides itselfinto metallurgical for steel production and steam coal forpower production. Making the distinction was far fromeasy and some government numbers looked ratherdubious. Annual production figures seem to fluctuate ina way that the compilers found terrifying, each bearinglittle relation to the previous year. To make sense of itmeant endlessly adjusting previous numbers in theseries, a problem that remains to this day. But theauthors drew the line at low-grade lignite and peat,thereby removing much of East Germany’s andIreland’s primary energy supply.The shift towards providing data about fuels other thanoil was recognized in the Review’s title in 1981. The BPStatistical Review of the World Oil Industry becamethe BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Yet, as if toconfirm the shift of emphasis, the very last oil reviewin 1980 did something that still resonates today. Itproduced a beautiful chart entitled ‘Total Discovered Oil’.This took cumulative production since 1859 to 1980 inthousand million tonnes and matched it with reserves.The lesson was graphic. The US and Western Europehad used far more than their reserves could possiblysupply in the future. Yet the real astonishment was thatif the US had used up some 20 million tonnes since1859, the Middle East had added up to 50 million tonnessince 1971. Oil reserves were not running out globally,just shifting geographically. Ironically, for all the talk ofscarcity, this is still true today. Nevertheless fuel diversification was on the cardsin the West and it started with natural gas. Undauntedby the large numbers it produced, the billion cubicfoot was introduced to match the million tonnes of oilequivalent. And if oil was going to have a map of worldtrade, so was gas, even if the import-export numbersby today’s standards were rather small. Collecting theUp until this point, the Review had been a pretty low-key affair. It did not have any kind of introduction oranalysis, just the numbers, the graphs and some usefuldefinitions and conversion factors. Sure enough, it hada telephone number for Tony Scanlan, but that wasabout all. This started to change in June 1984, whenthe anonymous editor wrote a foreword to explain to‘regular readers’ about changes in the design. PeterBrigg, the unnamed editor, was finally allowed toactually say something in the following year. Instead of remarks about pagination, the 1985Review began with the arresting words: ‘In 1984, theworld consumed more energy than in any previous yearin its history.’ They gave him just 500 words. Analysis ofthe data had arrived and its first sentence was truefor every year between 1982 and 2008. The expansion in demand for energy as a wholedid not mean that the oil price could not fall. Althoughoil priced at $29 per barrel was flying high in 1987 andOPEC seemed in control, the data in the Reviewsuggested a fall could occur and it duly crashed to a lowof $12 per barrel. It came as a big surprise to most policyFuel diversity The editor explainsthe numbers10 60 Years 60 Years 11International gas tradeReproduced from the 1981 ReviewAmount of oil used and reservesReproduced from the 1980 ReviewHaving reliable data is essential for energyplanners, and the Statistical Review is wellestablished as a highly respected energy datasource in the industry.Khalid al FalehCEO, Saudi AramcoI believe the Statistical Review is one of the mostuseful sources of information and analysis aboutthe global energy industry.Rajendra K PachauriChairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  8. 8. In the mid-1990s, energy was not only in the news forits impact on the economy, but also because of climatechange. With the Kyoto conference coming up, some ofthe oil companies started to join in an exercise of muchneeded public education. The Review played its ownpart in this process. In the 1996 edition, BP chiefexecutive John Browne wrote a foreword pointing outthat the Review had become an industry ‘bible’, whichwas, by this time, perfectly true. The printed versionproudly pointed out that the Review could now bedownloaded from the internet and that journalists weremore than free to use the numbers with attribution. By 1998, there was more information availableon the internet than in the printed version. By this timea kind of reciprocal arrangement between BP andgovernments had come into being. Governmentsresponded to an annual questionnaire because theyrecognized the value of the publication. Local BPoffices were told to request the data from the relevantministries. In this respect things were different from theearly years, when most of the numbers came from oilcompanies on the basis, as Scanlan recalls, of “I’ll showyou mine, if you show me yours!”The central point here was that while BP collected thedata, whether on reserves, production or consumption,it was not in the business of changing it. The economicsteam had enough experience to notice if a numbersuddenly increased exponentially from the previousyear and could query it at source, but if a governmentsomewhere insisted that it really was the case, thenin went the data. Coal continued its nuisance role inthis regard. As Peter Davies, by now BP chief economist,recalls, the whole production process was a kind ofhighly influential ‘pro bono’ exercise for the world’spolicy makers and energy producers: “My job was totell the story.” To emphasize the objectivity of theReview, it was firmly his responsibility and came fromhis office and not from public affairs or the press office.As the 20th century faded away and the 21st began,Davies gradually started on a series of journeys thatwould take him all over the world. The analysis of thedata was now an increasingly large part of the workof his office and demand for it was growing fast, aswould be his air miles.Sustaining objectivity Pro bonoOil movements mapReproduced from the 1998 Review12 60 Years 60 Years 13BP’s Statistical Review plays an important role inseparating fact from fiction in the energy debate.Fatih BirolChief Economist, International Energy AgencyFossil fuel reserves-to-productionReproduced from the 2009 ReviewThe Review had always made a point of thanking thosewho had provided the data. Now those who provided thatdata wanted to know what it meant. While the Reviewhad been launched with a road show since the early1990s, this now went into overdrive. In 1998, it firstlaunched in New York as well as London, but the chiefeconomist and his staff were soon airborne at theinvitation of governments from Abu Dhabi to Russia andthe Far East. The internet and its programmes enabled thenumbers to be analysed in many different ways. If thegathering of the data was a kind of ‘pro bono’ exercise,it did provide a potential mountain of presentation slidesfor BP conference speakers around the world. ‘Want toprovide a comparison between Chinese and US primaryenergy growth to make a point?’ ‘Here it is!’ It couldreduce the complexity of varying demand for oil productsinto a series of simple graphs or columns. In that sensethe Review moulded the arguments and clarified thediscussion of BP’s own policies as much as anyone’s. The Review and its internet sections provided auseful way for BP executives to explain the energy worldto a global audience, but they were also open to anyonewith a laptop connection. Economics professors,journalists, government ministers and executives fromother companies could use it for free. There was nothingexclusive about it. Furthermore, there was now so much data,which far outstripped the printed version, that it createdan opportunity for much wider discussions. In 2002, thecompany held a major press conference to reveal thenumbers. This gave the press access to the interpretiveviews of both the chief executive and the chiefeconomist. Yet the presentations as well as the Reviewremained strictly the responsibility of BP’s economists.They still let the numbers do the talking, whateverthe outcome.WorldEMEs excl. Former Soviet UnionFormer Soviet UnionOECD 0500400300200100Coal remains the world’s most abundant fuel, with a global R/P ratio of more than 120 years. Among fossil fuels, coal reserves remain the most closely co-located withkey consuming centres in Asia Pacific and North America. Oil’s global R/P ratio has tended to rise over time, and has remained above 40 years since 1998.
  9. 9. In 2007, Christof Rühl replaced Peter Davies as chiefeconomist and, if anything, expanded the process ofanalysing the data and explaining it in speeches. Onesuch was a 33-page document, which introducedanalysis of carbon emissions, the EU emission-tradingscheme, the growth of ethanol production and a pictureof inter-fuel substitution in the US. The followingyear, another presentation drew on the impact ofsynchronized commodity cycles, the relationshipbetween GDP and energy consumption, the financialinvestment in energy and even the impact of renewableenergy on German electricity production. Three years later, maybe the ghost of thestatistician Dusty Miller was tapping his slide rule on awindow of BP’s St James’s Square office. He had, afterall, started to calculate the trend lines of oil productionway back in 1953. According to his graphs, the 8.5%rising line pointed to a demand for more than one billiontonnes by 1959 and he was short by just 15 milliontonnes. Either way, it was thought that if the databasecould tell us where we were now, it might also helpus to project into the future. In January 2011, new BPchief executive, Bob Dudley, wrote a foreword to a newproject called BP Energy Outlook 2030. As he pointedout, it reflected ‘a to-the-best-of-our-knowledgeassessment of the world’s likely path from today’svantage point’. Jamie Jamieson would have been interested.After all, way back in 1952, he calculated that out of agrand total of 629 million long tons (12.6Mb/d) of globalconsumption, 458 million (9.5Mb/d), or 73%, was usedin what became the OECD. Beyond those regions, datawas harder to come by, although Jamieson reckonedthat the demand for oil in Africa was around 385,700barrels per day (by 2010, it had grown to 3.291Mb/d).Today, OECD demand is believed to have peaked, whileall the growth now comes from those parts of the worldwhere Jamieson could find little data. Collecting and correcting that data was andremains a huge task. Jamieson himself revised his own1951 production figures downward in 1952 and, as theReview got bigger, so did the task. By 1992, the sheervolume of information was so large that outside helpwas needed. Alan and Judy Clarke started to help inthe compilation. Had they known it, they might havethought twice about the deal: the USSR had broken upand Yugoslavia disintegrated in the previous year, so15 more countries were added to the list. They startedwith 700 ‘time series’ and ended up with 1,100. Furthermore, digging for the data requiredknowledge of some pretty obscure phrases in amultitude of languages, not to mention Arabic numerals.Refinery throughput is not an obvious term in Thai.Equally, some government bureaucracies are notas efficient as they like to think. One country onceadded the date of the year to the numbers for its oilconsumption so that its demand appeared to go throughthe roof. In addition, some countries persisted, and stillpersist, in translating their numbers into the thermalequivalent of fuel oil. Others number natural gas inkilowatt hours. In 2007, after 14 years of the task, of which theyare justifiable proud, the Clarkes handed over to MarkSchaffer, professor of economics at Heriot-WattUniversity in Edinburgh. Heriot-Watt was a good choice,partly because of its close relationship with the oilindustry. But Schaffer could add computer firepower,not least a visualization tool specifically designed toanalyse complex statistics. Schaffer is, in his ownwords, “good at ferreting about in spreadsheets”,a talent increasingly needed to spot anomalies in thenumbers. Yet even with 10 graduate students involvedin the process, they still hit some of the problemsfamiliar to the Clarkes: the team has to face some95 different units, with a few out there still usingJamieson’s imperial tonne, while Japan loves thekilolitre. The words ‘net’ and ‘gross’ need interpretationin many places. His staff has become more specialized over theyears but, as Schaffer puts it, “it is not just aboutcollecting the data, it is managing it as well”. There arenow many duplicate sources for comparison and thedatabase now contains even more raw data than canpossibly be put on the internet. There are some 290,000entries at last count and this does not include theReview’s unique collection of trading figures down theyears. And each year, of course, it grows still bigger.Into the future World gas tradeReproduced from the 2009 ReviewMiller’s oil consumption graphReproduced from the 1952 Review14 60 Years 60 Years 15If you work on anything related to the economics ofenergy, keep this on your desk. It is the authoritativesource, and it has all the numbers.Olivier BlanchardChief Economist, International Monetary Fund5.0103.215.910.310.946.06.55.823.65.525.3130.945. gasLNG3.267.59.0USCanadaMexicoS. & Cent. AmericaEurope & EurasiaMiddle EastAfricaAsia Pacific
  10. 10. It is hardly surprising that Bethan Thomas at the BPArchive at Warwick University gets regular demandsfor copies of the early Review. What began as a simpleseven pages about crude oil and oil products hasbecome a compendium of statistics about natural gas,nuclear energy, hydropower, coal, biofuels and, morerecently, solar power and wind. As such, it has becomean analytical tool of vast importance to current debatesabout energy scarcity and the environment. Yet energy supply and demand is never static.The world economy has evolved in ways quite beyondthe perceptions of those in the old Britannic House whostarted looking at numbers as a way to understand theimplications of lost Iranian crude. The average very largecrude carrier can now ship around 20 of the cargoescarried in tankers in their day. Back in 1952, Jamieson and Miller would havecooked their suppers on ‘town gas’ manufactured bythe local municipal utility. Natural gas was not seen asan international business at all and staggering amountswere being flared in Saudi Arabia. Even by 1981, whenthe Review first produced its gas trade map of theworld, the amount flowing across borders was a mere116 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe). In 2010 itwas 803 mtoe, adjusted for trade within the formerSoviet Union to be comparable. The early statisticiansmight also have been surprised to find that coal nowsupplies 29.6% of global primary energy, the highestproportion since 1970. Although the Review remains objective andindependent, both its contents and the analysis thatgoes with it, naturally grew with the preoccupations ofBP itself. The previous fascination with tankers and theMiddle East show this but, as the company grew trulyglobal through mergers with Amoco and Arco, the datacollection has grown with it. Places about which weformerly knew nothing have been added. Azerbaijan isan example, for despite its illustrious oil history, littlewas known about it in the West. Yet if the Review reflects the preoccupations ofoil companies down six decades, it also charts issuesthat have little to do with those companies except in thewidest sense. That China has expanded its hydropowercapacity threefold since 1999 comes to mind, as doesthe stuttering growth of nuclear power. Also, as theReview makes plain, our primary energy consumptionhas almost doubled since 1980. In that sense alone theReview is truly ‘for the public good’. For this energywriter, who was just one day short of a year old whenit first appeared, it has been quite invaluable. Long mayit continue.Chris CraggChris Cragg is a correspondent for European EnergyReview and a regular contributor to Platts. He editedFT Energy Economist for 14 years and was BP editor-in-chief shortly after the merger with Amoco.Then and now16 60 YearsAcknowledgementsDesign saslondon.comPrinting Pureprint Group Limited,UK ISO 14001, FSC®certified andCarbonNeutral®Paper This publication is printed onFSC-certified Mohawk Options 100%.This paper has been independentlycertified according to the rules of theForest Stewardship Council (FSC) andwas manufactured at a mill that holdsISO 14001 accreditation. The inks usedare all vegetable oil based.© BP p.l.c. 2011Projections to 2030Reproduced from Energy Outlook 2030The clear and concise maps, charts andtables provide an excellent guide througha complex subject.The Economist