BP Energy Outlook 2035
We project that by 2035 India becomes increasingly import dependent despite
increases in non-fossil fuel production. Here are a few reasons why:
India’s energy production rises by 112%
while consumption grows by 132%.
Oil imports will rise by 169% and account
for over 60% of the net increase in imports,
followed by increasing imports of gas
(+573%) and coal (+85%).
India’s energy production as a share of
consumption drops from 61% today to just
56% by 2035 as imports rise by 163%.
Declines in oil production (-25%) is made up
by increases in gas (+44%) and coal
Demand for all fossil fuels expands led gas
(+183%), oil (+121%), and coal (+108%)
while renewables in power expand by
539% as does nuclear (+366%) and hydro
Coal remains the dominant fuel produced in
India with a 66% market share in 2035.
Renewables in power overtakes oil as the
second largest, increasing from 3% to 10%
in 2035 as oil drops from 12% to 4%.
India’s energy mix evolves very slowly over
the next 20 years with fossil fuels
accounting for 87% of demand in 2035,
compared to a global average of 81%. This
is down from 92% today.
Energy consumption in power generation
increases by 129% and while coal remains
the dominant fuel source, its market share
drops from 76% today to 70% in 3035.
Energy in transport grows by 215% and oil
remains the dominant fuel source with a
93% market share in 2035.
CO2 emissions from energy demand
increases by 117%.
India’s energy intensity is 32% lower than
today’s level compared to a BRIC average
decline of 46%. Despite slower intensity
improvement, per capita demand is 60%
below the BRIC average.
India’s share of global demand rises to 7%
in 2035, accounting for the second largest
share of the BRIC countries compard to
China (27%), Russia (5%), and Brazil (3%).
India’s demand growth of 132% outpaces
each of the BRIC countries as Russia
(+20%), China (+71%), and Brazil (+71%)
all expand slower. India’s growth is almost
double the non-OECD aggregate of 69%.