BP Energy Outlook 2035 - Brazil country insights 2014

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Country insights for Brazil from BP's Energy Outlook 2035 published in 2014. …

Country insights for Brazil from BP's Energy Outlook 2035 published in 2014.

We project that by 2035 Brazil will transform itself from an energy importer to an exporter as rising production manages to outpace strong demand growth.

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  • 1. BP Energy Outlook 2035 Brazil We project that by 2035 Brazil will transform itself from an energy importer to an exporter as rising production manages to outpace strong demand growth. Here are a few reasons why: • Brazil energy production rises by 98% while consumption grows by 71%. • Demand for all fossil fuels expand led gas (+144%), oil (+51%), and coal (+21%) while renewables in power expand by 227% and hydro by 55%. • • Brazil’s energy mix continues to evolve as biofuels take market share from oil in transport and gas replaces coal and hydro in power generation. However, oil (37%) still remains the most dominant fuel followed by hydro (31%) in 2035. Fossil fuels will account for 54% of Brazilian energy consumption in 2035, compared to a global average of 81% as renewables in power rises to 8%, hydro maintains its 30% market share, and biofuels account for 6%. • Brazil’s share of global demand rises slightly to 3% in 2035, accounting for the smallest share of the BRIC countries compared to China (27%), India (7%), and Russia (5%). • Brazil’s demand growth of 71% does outpace Russia (+20%), matches that of China (+71%), but lags behind India (+132%). It is, however, near the nonOECD average of 69%. • Brazil’s energy production as a share of consumption rises from 92% today to 106% by 2035, switching the country from an importer to an exporter. • Brazil increases production of every fuel with oil (+109%), gas (+178%), hydro (+55%), renewables in power (+227%), and biofuels (+127%) all growing significantly. • With increases in oil and biofuels production Brazil will become an exporter and the largest producer in South America. Natural gas imports, however, will nearly double from today’s levels. • Energy consumption in power generation will rise by 80% and while hydro remains the dominant fuel source, its market share drops from 77% today to 66% in 3035. • Energy in transport grows by 72% and while oil remains the dominant fuel it loses market share to biofuels, dropping from 84% to 78%. Biofuels’ 20% market share remains by far the highest in the world. • Brazil’s energy intensity is 18% lower than today’s level compared to a BRIC average decline of 45%. Despite slower intensity improvement, per capita demand is 5% below the BRIC average. www.bp.com/energyoutlook