Managing the Portfolio,
Realising the Benefits
BPUG Congress, 10th February 2009
Stephen Jenner
Stephen.jenner@cjit.gsi.gov.uk OR stephen.jenner@cabinet-
office.x.gsi.gov.uk

Framing statement
“I love money.
I love money more than the things it can buy.
There’s only one thing I love more than
money.
You know what that is?”

Framing statement
“OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY”
Danny DeVito as ‘Larry the Liquidator’
1991, Warner Bros Films

Change programmes - the rationale
“The fundamental reason for beginning a programme is to
realise the benefits through change.”
Office for Government Commerce (OGC), ‘Managing Successful
Programmes’
“It is only possible to be sure that change has worked if we
can measure the delivery of the benefits it is supposed
to bring.”
UK Cabinet Office, ‘Successful IT: Modernising Government in Action’

But the track record is not good…
“Implementation of IT systems has resulted in
delay, confusion and inconvenience to the
citizen and, in many cases poor value for
money to the taxpayer.”
Public Accounts Committee, 2000
“30-40% of systems to support business
change delivery no benefits whatsoever.”
Office of Government Commerce, 2005
“the committee has no confidence that the
amounts being assessed have any
relationship to the benefits anticipated to be
returned.”
US Senate Appropriations Committee, 2007

And ‘horror’ stories abound…
Cost overruns
• Concorde (1100%)
• Channel Tunnel (80% for construction and 140% for
financing costs)
• Scottish Parliament – 10 times over budget and late
• Jubilee line extension costs underestimated by £1.4bn
Benefits shortfalls
• The Dome visitors down by 5-6 million
• Eurostar passenger forecast in yr1 of full operations =
15.9m, actual = 2.9m
• Bangkok skytrain – demand 2.5 times over-estimated
• Humber Bridge – traffic 25% overestimated in yr1 of full
operation.

And empirical research concludes…
“There is a demonstrated, systemic tendency for project
appraisers to be overly optimistic. This is a worldwide
phenomenon that affects both the private and public
sectors…appraisers tend to overstate benefits, and
underestimate timings and costs.” HM Treasury
“it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that
the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects
should be built are highly and systematically misleading.”
Flyvbjerg
“Delusional optimism: we overemphasise projects’ potential
benefits and underestimate likely costs, spinning success
scenarios while ignoring the possibility of mistakes.”
Lovallo and Kahneman

Four explanations…
1. The technical explanation - our tools are
inadequate.
2. The psychological explanation – Optimism
bias, derived from cognitive biases.
3. The economic explanation – continuing with a
project creates work for project managers,
suppliers etc.
4. The political explanation – “Strategic
misrepresentation”?

Delusion or Deception?
“the planned, systematic, deliberate misstatement of
costs and benefits to get projects approved.” In short,
“that is lying”. And that’s because, “Lying pays off, or at
least economic agents believe it does.”
Flyvbjerg et al
“Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure”
Sharpe and Keelin
38% of respondents in one survey openly admitted to
overstating benefits to get funding with the traditional
investment appraisal process being, “seen as a ritual that
must be overcome before any project can begin”
Ward

The Result - Business Cases contain
‘assumptions masquerading as facts’

The Solutions
1. Be clear about the benefits you are buying.
2. Spend more time doing your homework.
3. Triangulate and Validate project proposals.
4. Appraise ‘Attractiveness’ in the context of
‘Achievability’.
5. ‘Gates with teeth’.
6. Independent review.
7. A ‘Clear line of Sight’ from Strategic Intent
through to Benefits Realisation.

The Solutions:
1. Be clear about the benefits you are buying
Beware staff time savings – they
are vouchers, they only have a
value when they are cashed or the
time is re-deployed to other value
adding activity.

The Solutions:
1. Be clear about the benefits you are buying
Beware ‘Strategic alignment’ as
an investment justification,
“Our CEO defines ‘strategic projects’ as
expensive projects without a business
case.”
Corporate Executive Board paper

The Solutions: 1. Strategic Contribution Analysis
Be clear about the benefits you are buying
Service Transformation Programme – High Level Strategy Map
Vision Strategies Metrics
Learning from citizens and businesses Government will monitor the customer
– Customer Insight, Customer Journey experience through journey mapping
Mapping, Customer Satisfaction and customer satisfaction tracking
To change public Measurement mechanisms at the front line (STA Oct
services so they 07)
more often meet the Grouping services in ways that are
needs of people and meaningful to the customer e.g. Tell Us
Key progress measures 1 - Reduction
Once, Directgov and Businesslink.gov
businesses, rather in the amount of avoidable contact. To
than the needs of achieve a 50% reduction by 31.3.11.
Rationalising services for efficiency and (STA Oct 07).
government, and by service improvement – online
doing so reduce the (Directgov and Businesslink.gov),
phone (contact centre accreditation); Key progress measure 2 - Building
frustration and stress
face to face and helplines better online services – citizen and
of accessing them. business e-services content migrated to
Directgov and Businesslink.gov. More
The result will be Making better use of customer than 95% of websites to have migrated
information public sector already holds: by 31.3.11. (STA Oct 07)
services that are a. Strategic level – Home Office lead on
better for the Identity mgt and MoJ on information
customer, better for sharing Efficiency savings – the value in
b. Tactical level – Tell Us Once recording the level of savings achieved
front line staff and by departments is recognised, and the
better for the CO will track these as this STA is
taxpayer (Service delivered. (STA Oct 07).
Linking local and central government
Transformation
Agreement, October Face-to-Face – The LGDC will develop
2007). a progress measure reflecting the
Engaging front line staff FOSS approach for later inclusion in
this Agreement. (STA Oct 07)

The Solutions:
2. Spend more time doing your homework
“It’s the Business Case,
stupid”
Failing projects don’t have
brilliant business cases

The Solutions:
3. Triangulate and Validate
Use more than one appraisal method, or ‘value
lens’:
• Combine financial metrics with multi-
criteria analysis and decision conferencing.
• Validate/book the benefits with the
recipients – before investment.
• Establish effective accountability for
delivery and benefits realisation.

The Solutions:
4. Appraise ‘Attractiveness’ in the context of ‘Achievability’

The Solutions:
5. ‘Gates with teeth’
• Regularly requiring project teams and
business sponsors to ‘sing for their supper’.
• Presumption – if you exceed tolerance,
funding ceases.
• Concludes with a formal re-commitment to
benefits realisation.
• Challenge and Support.

The Solutions:
6. Independent review
“humans not only are prone to make
biased predictions, we’re also
damnably overconfident about our
predictions and slow to change them in
the face of new evidence. In fact, these
problems of bias and overconfidence
become more severe the more
complicated the prediction.”
Ayers

The Solutions:
6. Independent review
Ayers suggests an, “’Advocatus Diaboli’…
whose job it is to poke holes in pet projects.
These professional “No” men could be an
antidote to overconfidence bias.”
Davidson Frame proposes the use of “murder
boards” to pull a proposal apart to, “make sure
that arguments in support of project ideas do not
have built into them the seeds of their own
destruction.”
Steve Jenner - I suggest a ‘fool’ to ask the
questions others don’t dare to ask and identify
those, ‘assumptions that masquerade as facts’.

The Solutions:
7. A Clear line of sight from strategic intent
to benefits realisation
• Contributor project benefits • Recipient Organisation Benefits • Benefits Scorecard
report Realisation Report CJS IT BENEFITS SCORECARD June 2006
This table shows the full CJS IT Programme benefits picture, including ring fence benefits and benefits enabled by the ring fence infrastructure (£m) CJS IT Benefits Realisation Plans
Forecast Benefit Values Self assessment of RAG status Strand Board Alignment1 Police Benefits Realisation Plan
Relative
CJS IT Projects Quality of Scale of Quality of Victims and Contribution to
SR2004 CSR07 10 Year Total Benefit Benefits Realisation Likelihood of Confidence OBTJ Enforcement Re-offending Strategic Q1 03/04 - Q4
Witnesses
Forecast Forecast Planning Realisation Drivers2 05/06 2006/07 Q1 2006/07 2007/08
NSPIS Custody & Case Prep 79.08 199.82 348.06 AMBER AMBER AMBER AMBER Realised Plan Actual Forecast
PentiP - 5.08 14.06 GREEN GREEN AMBER AMBER Efficiency Cashable - - 0.39 0.71
CJS IT BENEFITS PROGRESS REPORT - QUARTER 4 2004-05 FOR CJS EXCHANGE XHIBIT PORTAL
COMPASS CMS (50%) 10.95 20.79 52.74 GREEN AMBER GREEN AMBER HD=1 Efficiency Opportunity 4.95 2.69 26.136 50.59
10 Year Analysis NWNJ IT tool (WMS) 5.70 9.66 25.02 GREEN GREEN GREEN AMBER D=2 HD=1 NK=1 HD=1 Effectiveness 0.26 0.24 0.94 1.12
Cumulative Cost and Benefit Forecast 2003-2013
Recipient Efficiency £M Effectiveness
Cost
Avoidance Total
SOCA 0.61 1.21 3.43 GREEN GREEN GREEN GREEN M=1 Total 5.21 2.93 - 27.473 52.42
Cumulative Benefits Cumulative Costs
Self Assessment Cashable Opportunity Cashable Opportunity £ % Libra application (includes benefits jointly delivered with 3a) 18.15 81.70 154.31 GREEN RED AMBER AMBER M=1 NK=1 CPS Benefits Realisation Plan
A p p lic a tio ns
Q3 Q3 Forecast Q4 Q4 forecast Crown
Assessment for Q4 Assessment for Q1 Courts 12.700 35.620 0.000 25.920 0.000 74.240 6.7%
1,200 Q1 03/04 - Q4
Quality of Benefits Forecast Other CJOs 0.000 117.820 0.000 52.760 0.000 170.580 15.3%
1,000 OASys 79.52 93.18 239.12 GREEN GREEN GREEN GREEN MC=2 05/06 2006/07 Q1 2006/07 2007/08
Scale of Benefits Forecast Cross CJS 0.000 0.000 0.000 173.710 0.000 173.710 15.6% 800
NOMIS (70%) 5.06 50.00 162.33 GREEN GREEN GREEN GREEN MC=1 HD=1 Realised Plan Actual Forecast
£'m
Quality of Realisation Planning Outside CJS 0.000 0.000 0.000 694.860 0.000 694.860 62.4%
ViSOR 0.93 2.21 6.08
600
Likelihood of Realisation Total £ 12.700 153.440 0.000 947.250 0.000 1113.390 100.0%
GREEN GREEN GREEN GREEN Efficiency Cashable - - - -
400
200
CJSE Release 1a (NSPIS-CMS) 1.63 9.76 17.88 GREEN GREEN GREEN AMBER Efficiency Opportunity 31.40 8.88 35.50 39.04
Benefits Realised this financial year £m Last report Now
Monetary Value of Benefits Realised YTD 0.01 NPV £m* 154.301 -
- CJSE Release 1b (NSPIS - Libra) 0.87 19.08 37.29 AMBER GREEN AMBER AMBER Effectiveness 0.13 0.39 1.56 2.83
4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3
Forecast in latest published Delivery Plan 4.1 200
3-0
200
4-0
200
5-0
200
6-0
200
7-0
200
8-0
200
9-1
201
0-1
201
1-1
201
2-1
XHIBIT/CJSE Release 2a&b (XHIBIT Portal) 9.29 7.11 21.15 AMBER RED GREEN AMBER M=1 D=1 M=1 Total 31.53 9.27 - 37.06 41.87
YTD IRR % 94.2 0.0% Year
Variance -4.09 *NPV discounted at 3.5%
PROGRESS 1.88 12.02 26.04 GREEN GREEN GREEN GREEN M=4 HD=1 D=2 HMCS Benefits Realisation Plan
Q1 03/04 - Q4
Secure Email/Emailing Securely 1.49 1.90 4.78 AMBER RED AMBER AMBER D=2 05/06 2006/07 Q1 2006/07 2007/08
Project Life Cycle Benefits Profile (Top 5-10 benefits over 10 years)
Impact Benefits CJSE Release 3a 0.00 0.01 0.02 AMBER AMBER AMBER Realised Plan Actual Forecast
Main Name(s) of recipient Realisation CJSE Release 3b 1.10 2.13 6.07 GREEN AMBER AMBER Efficiency Cashable - 0.70 17.45
Benefit Description Performance £M Benefit Category Strategic Alignment Recipient agreed with Realisation Ramp Up Key Measures/Indicators of Benefit Status
Time from CC result to PNC update
COMPASS infrastructure (50%) 85.95 95.79 252.74 see COMPASS CMS Efficiency Opportunity 2.59 0.53 2.67 1.70
PNC update
PSA Target 5 Benefit Libra enabled 30.17 34.26 95.54 see LIBRA application Effectiveness - 0.34 2.54 4.42
realisation
down to 3 To start 6 months after completion in a
behind Plan
NOMIS infrastructure (30%) 2.17 21.43 69.57 see NOMIS application Total 2.59 0.87 - 5.91 23.57
1 Reduction in the cost of crime days 173.71 Effectiveness opportunity CJS CJ Area
OMNI infrastructure 1.03 3.11 6.48
Infra stru ctu re
Time from CC result to PNC update
PSA Targets 1 and 3 Benefit not OMNI cost effectiveness - 9.36 36.37 NOMS Benefits Realisation Plan
PNC update
down to 3 To start 6 months after completion in a yet due for
Q1 03/04 - Q4
2 Reduction in the cost of crime days 694.86 Effectiveness opportunity UK economy CJ Area realisation
No. of adjournments as a result of no PSR
LINK enabled 8.68 11.79 28.49 05/06 2006/07 Q1 2006/07 2007/08
PSA Targets 2, 3 and 5 Benefit ahead
Improvement
from 15% to of or in line Shared Access 5.85 7.80 24.05 D=2 Realised Plan Actual Forecast
3 Court time saving (PSR adjournments) 3.4% 4.06 Effectiveness opportunity Crown Court From Go-live at each court centre with plan
Percentage of ineffective hearings
Equip direct 16.50 16.50 55.00 Efficiency Cashable - - - -
Assumption
of
PSA Targets 1, 2, 3 and 5
Crown Court,
Benefit not Equip enabled 41.41 149.10 311.00 Efficiency Opportunity 26.77 5.68 22.70 24.36
improvement Police, CPS, From 6 months after Go-live at each yet due for
P ro g
4 Court time saving ( Ineffective Hearings) of 1-10% 31.78 Effectiveness opportunity Probation court centre realisation CEI 9.78 21.43 45.54 D=9 M=1 HD=3 D=5 M=1 HD=11 D=3 M=1 D=5 M=1 NK=1 D=1 M=1 Effectiveness 12.40 5.26 21.06 21.21
Number of disposals Economic/Social Value Benefits 15.61 113.53 291.21 NOTE: Benefits shown only include quantified, validated Total 39.17 10.94 - 43.76 45.57
PSA Targets 2, 3 and 5 Benefit ahead 1.
From 3 months after Go-live at each of or in line benefits but other enabled benefits have been identified Based on BRP submissions & agreed with Strand Board leads, this shows the number of benefits to the
5 Court time saving (Same day delays) - 5.98 Effectiveness opportunity Crown Court court centre with plan TOTAL BENEFITS 433.41 999.74 2,334.36 and will be included as further work is undertaken Strands in terms of value (ie. mission critical, highly desirable etc)
Backlog count
MC = Mission Critical, HD = Highly Desirable, D = Desirable,
PSA Targets 2, 3 and 5 Number of disposals Benefit ahead
of or in line
Total 10 year CJS IT Application benefits Ring Fence only 1274.65 KEY M = Minimal, NK = Not Known YJB Benefits Realisation Plan
From 1 month after Go-live at each court
6 Crown Court Efficiency benefits - 35.61 Efficiency opportunity Crown Court centre with plan Q1 03/04 - Q4
Number of enquiries made to CC CJS IT Application NPV Ring Fence only 250.18 2. Independent Scores assessed by Proving Services 05/06 2006/07 Q1 2006/07 2007/08
PSA Target 5 No of daily lists faxed/time taken. Benefit ahead Benefits as %
of or in line of Cost
with plan
CJS IT Application IRR Ring Fence only 12.90% Cost Benefit Analysis3 2003/04 2003-05 2003-06 2003-07 2003-08 Realised Plan Actual Forecast
7 CPS Benefits - 2.3 Efficiency opportunity CPS 3 months after go live in a CJ Area
No of enquiries made to CC Total Police RF Cost/Budget 57.09 90.37 142.59 183.78 202.01 Efficiency Cashable -
PSA Target 5 No of daily/warned lists sent and time taken Benefit ahead
Benefits to the CJS and Society Direct Benefits 0.53 1.63 5.21 32.69 85.10 Efficiency Opportunity 0.11 0.05 0.21 0.37
No of bail forms sent and time taken of or in line
8 Police Benefits - 115.52 Efficiency opportunity Police 3 months after go live in a CJ Area with plan Enabled Benefits - - - - Effectiveness -
Total Police Benefits 0.53 1.63 5.21 32.69 85.10 42% Total 0.11 0.05 - 0.21 0.37
Benefit ahead x-CJS, 9% Social Value,
of or in line 16% Total Corrections RF Cost/Budget 111.21 194.71 269.22 408.09 519.61
9 with plan Direct Benefits 5.50 15.38 39.29 83.26 129.20 RAG of Benefits in SR2004 Benefits Realisation Plans
Benefit ahead
Enabled Benefits - 8.55 10.12 19.22 49.96 Q3 05/06 Q4 05/06
of or in line Total Corrections Benefits 5.50 23.93 49.40 102.47 179.16 34% Benefits Rating No. % No. %
10 with plan Total CPS RF Cost/Budget 25.05 58.82 97.87 132.70 170.63 Benefit behind schedule 6 6% 2 2%
PSA Target 5 Benefit not Direct & Enabled Benefits - 2.05 31.53 68.59 110.46 Difficulty with tracking/measure. 26 27% 35 36%
yet due for Total CPS Benefits - 2.05 31.53 68.59 110.46 65% Benefit on track/ahead of schedule 13 13% 19 20%
9 NOMS Benefits - 36.9 Effectiveness opportunity NOMS Following rollout to all prisons in a CJA realisation
Total HMCS RF Cost/Budget 154.55 283.61 426.40 512.40 585.28 Benefit not yet due for realisation 52 54% 41 42%
Reduced waiting time claim values
PSA Targets 2, 3 and 5 Benefit not Direct Benefits - 0.30 2.59 8.50 32.07
From 1 month after Go-live at each court yet due for Home CJO, Enabled Benefits 3.23 8.43 18.80 32.10 47.28 Benefits By Type
10 Reduction in solicitor waiting - 12.7 Efficiency cashable Crown Court centre realisation 76% Effectiveness
Total HMCS Benefits 3.23 8.73 21.39 40.60 79.35 14% Efficiency
30%
3
Ring Fence costs from 2003-06 and Delivery Plan RF budget from 2006-08. Full benefits by recipient used. Corrections includes YJB. Cashable
Approved by SRO: 9%
Home CJO x-CJS Social Value
Risk Register - CJS IT Benefits Management
Risk Description RAG Summary of Key Mitigating Actions
1. Settlement Letter Conditions/Hurdle rates 2. Root Cause Model 3. Social Value Research 4. Analysis of benefits enabled by CJS IT funded
1 Scale of CJS IT benefits forecast infrastructure
Efficiency
2 Quality of CJS IT benefits forecast 1. Quarterly Benefits Integrity Check 2. Benefits Eligibility Framework Opportunity
61%
3 CJSIT benefits realisation 1. Process Modelling 2. CJO Benefit Realisation Plans approved by OB and BWG 3. Project Benefit Realisation Plans approved by BWG Efficiency Cashable Efficiency Opportunity Effectiveness
• Investment Appraisal report • Portfolio Analysis • Proving Model report
ATTRACTIVENESS ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS*
NPV (£M) IRR (%) PAY BACK PERIOD
(YEARS)
EXCLUDING OPTIMISM BIAS
INCLUDING OPTIMISM BIAS
CONFIRMATION THAT THE ABOVE FIGURES ARE COMPLIANT WITH BENEFITS ELIGIBILITY FRAMEWORK (BEF)
CONFIRMED BY: COMMENTS: ACHIEVABILITY ANALYSIS
Yes PROVING MODEL ASSESSMENT
No
DATE OF CURRENT ASSESSMENT:
ACHIEVABILITY SCORE:
BENEFITS ANALYSIS OVER 10 YEAR PROJECT LIFE CYCLE (£M)
P SPAN IF LESS THEN 10
STATE 10 YEAR PERIOD COVERED OR PROJECT LIFEROGRESS SINCE LAST YEARS:
ACHIEVABILITY ASSESSMENT:
RECIPIENT EFFICIENCY – EFFICIENCY – EFFECTIVENESS - EFFECTIVENESS –
CASHABLE OPPORTUNITY CASHABLE OPPORTUNITY
VALUE VALUE
PROVING SERVICES ACHIEVABILITY SCORE BREAKDOWN
CJO: Police
CJO: CPS CONCEPT CASE (COMPLETE AS APPROPRIATE)
CJO: DCA Score
CJO: NOMS (1) TOTAL PROJECT COSTS
CJO: YJB Stakeholder Analysis (Achievability)
YEAR RESOURCE CAPITAL TOTAL
CROSS CJS: Indication Achievability
(£M) (£M) (£M )
BEYOND THE Complexity Analysis
CJS(SPECIFY):
Achievability Total
TOTALS:
TOTAL
BUSINESS CASE (COMPLETEONFIRMATION OR) PROPOSED
SOURCE OF C AS APPROPRIATE
INC LUDE D IN
ACTIONS & TIMESCALES TO ENSURE
A GR EED IN
P RIN CIPLE
Score
N OT Y ET
A GR EED
BENEFITS ARE INCLUDED INRESOURCE/CAPITAL CURRENTLY ALLOCATED FROM
(2) BENEFITS (3) OTHER FUNDING SOURCES
BRP
REALISATION PLAN THE RING FENCEComplexity Analysis
BENEFITS INCLUDED IN THE POLICE YEAR Processes & Capability
RESOURCE CAPITAL TOTAL RESOURCE CAPITAL TOTAL
BENEFITS REALISATION PLAN (BRP) Ownership & )Accountability
(£M (£M) (£M ) (£M) (£M) (£M)
OR AGREED IN PRINCIPLE BY THE
POLICE BENEFITS REALISATION
Clarity & Perception
LEAD(BRL) Benefits Realisation Management
BENEFITS INCLUDED IN THE CPS TOTAL Stakeholders Analysis
BRP OR AGREED IN PRINCIPLE BY
THE CPS BRL
Achievability Total
BENEFITS INCLUDED IN THE DCA RESOURCE/CAPITAL GAP (1-(2+3)) RESOURCE/CAPITAL REQUIRED FROM
BRP OR AGREED IN PRINCIPLE BY THE RING FENCE
THE DCA BRL
YEAR RESOURCE CAPITAL TOTAL RESOURCE CAPITAL TOTAL
BENEFITS INCLUDED IN THE NOMS ASSESSMENT OF DEGREE OF BUSINESS CHANGE REQUIRED )TO REALISE BENEFITS (£M )
(£M (£M) (£M) (£M) (£M)
BRP OR AGREED IN PRINCIPLE BY RECIPIENT BRL ASSESSMENT COMMENTS
THE NOMS BRL
BENEFITS INCLUDED IN THE YJB
M EDIUM
BRP OR AGREED IN PRINCIPLE BY
H IGH
L OW
N/A
THE YJB BRL TOTAL
Police
CPS
DCA FUNDING – OTHER ISSUES AVAILABILITY CONFIRMED?
NOMS FUNDING AVAILABLE TO REALISE BUSINESS CHANGE? Yes BY: DATE
YJB No
Others [specify] CONFIRMATION THAT OVERSPENDS WILL BE MET BY Yes BY: DATE
DEPARTMENTAL BASELINES No
RECYCLING OF COST SAVINGS
YEAR LEGACY SYSTEM SAVINGS AMOUNT BY WHICH THE RING FENCE
SAVINGS RECYCLED? REQUEST CAN BE REDUCED
TOTAL

And remember…
1. Spend more time doing your homework.
2. Be clear about what benefits you are buying.
3. Track performance – to learn and to inform
investment decision.
4. Triangulate and Validate – ‘trust everyone, but cut the
deck’.
5. Use ‘Gates with teeth’.
6. Joint accountability - planning for success, with a
forward looking perspective.
7. Use summary documentation – size is the enemy of
understanding.
8. Ensure there is a ‘clear line of sight’ from strategic
intent through to benefits realisation.
9. Manage benefits from an enterprise perspective.
10. Dare to employ a ‘fool’!

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