America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey - Full Appendix

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The full findings of "America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey," a survey commissioned by The Atlantic and the Aspen Institute and released July 1, 2014 at the organizations’ 10th …

The full findings of "America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey," a survey commissioned by The Atlantic and the Aspen Institute and released July 1, 2014 at the organizations’ 10th annual Aspen Ideas Festival, and conducted by research firm Penn Schoen Berland (PSB) in partnership with global public relations and strategic communications firm Burson-Marsteller. PSB, working with Burson Marsteller, conducted 2,001 online interviews with the United States general population from May 28 – 31, 2014.

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  • 1. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Imagining 2024 1 America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey Appendix
  • 2. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Methodology 2  Penn Schoen Berland, working with Burson Marsteller, conducted 2,001 online interviews with the general population of the U.S. from May 28-31, 2014.  The overall margin of error is ± 2.19%  The data presented in this study are reflective of U.S. Census Bureau demographic statistics in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, income and political party.
  • 3. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 APPENDIX 3
  • 4. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: We are moving from an “Age of Possibility” to an “Age of Impossibility” 4
  • 5. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 35% of Americans believe that the US will be on the right track in 2024 5 25 39 17 30 48 16 35 46 28 62 47 76 58 37 78 28 22 35 OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS All Democrat Republican RightTrackWrongDirection CURRENTLY 10 YEARS FROM NOW AMERICA’S PATH Do you think the United States has been, is, or will be one the right track or headed in the wrong direction?
  • 6. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 39% think the American economy will be on the right track in 10 years 6 US ECONOMY Ten years ago, do you think the American economy was on the right track or headed in the wrong direction? In ten years, do you think the American economy will be on the right track or headed in the wrong direction? 44% 37% 56% 39% 51% 33% All Democrats Republicans The American economy was / will be on the right track 2004 2004 20042024 2024 2024
  • 7. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 7 Do you think America will be considered the "land of opportunity" in ten years? 33% 37% 30% 29% 29% 38% 34% 42% 40% 44% 44% 47% 41% 40% 24% 22% 26% 27% 24% 22% 26% All Male Female Northeast Midwest South West Yes No Don't know 33% think that America will be the “land of opportunity” in 10 years
  • 8. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 49% believe that hard work is less likely to pay off in the future 8 61% 30% 23% 49% 10 YEARS FROM NOW HARD WORK AND PLAYING BY RULES Ten years ago, do you think that people who worked hard and played by the rules were more or less likely to get ahead? In ten years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely to get ahead? 10 YEARS AGO Less Likely More Likely All All In 2024 All Age Political Affiliation 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More likely 30 32 33 29 25 36 31 24 Less likely 49 42 48 49 58 42 51 52 Don’t know 21 26 19 23 17 23 18 23
  • 9. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 9 Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor has grown or shrunk in the United States over the past ten years? Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor will grow or shrink in the United States over the next ten years? 66% think the gap between the rich and poor will grow over the next 10 years Past Ten Years All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Grown 77 78 76 71 74 77 90 81 74 76 Shrunk 10 9 10 10 15 9 4 9 12 10 Don't know 13 12 14 18 11 14 6 10 14 14 In Ten Years All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Grow 66 67 65 59 65 65 79 66 67 65 Shrink 16 17 14 20 20 13 8 17 14 15 Don't know 18 16 21 21 15 22 13 16 19 20 77% 71% 74% 77% 90% 10% 10% 15% 9% 4% 66% 59% 65% 65% 79% 16% 20% 20% 13% 8% All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Grown over the last 10 years Shrunk over the last 10 years Grow over the next 10 years Shrink over the next 10 years
  • 10. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 10 Do you think the middle class in the United States has grown or shrunk over the past ten years? Do you think the middle class in the United States will grow or shrink over the next ten years? 57% think the middle class has shrunk over the past 10 years, and 49% think it will shrink by 2024 Ten Years Ago All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Grown 28 28 28 44 33 21 14 28 26 29 Shrunk 57 56 59 32 52 66 81 61 61 51 Don't know 15 16 13 24 15 14 5 11 13 19 In Ten Years All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Grow 31 33 29 43 36 24 22 33 29 32 Shrink 49 47 50 31 46 54 64 48 52 47 Don't know 20 20 20 26 17 21 14 20 19 22 31% 28% 49% 57% 20% 15% Grown/Grow Shrunk/Shrink Don't know Ten Years Ago In Ten Years Showing All
  • 11. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 22% believe the U.S. will have the best education system in 10 years, followed by Japan and China 11 22% 19% 18% 5% 4% 4% 1% 2% 23% In ten years, which country do you think will have the best education system overall? US Japan China Germany India United Kingdom Russia Other Don't know ALL In ten years, which country do you think will have the best education system overall? All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I US 22 23 21 19 21 26 19 22 24 18 29 23 21 14 21 21 23 Japan 19 19 20 25 18 17 20 17 20 24 9 21 20 29 22 20 17 China 18 18 19 21 19 17 18 20 18 18 22 20 18 12 20 19 17 Germany 5 7 4 7 6 5 3 4 5 8 4 4 7 5 5 4 6 India 4 6 2 5 3 4 4 3 3 6 3 5 3 6 4 6 3 United Kingdom 4 4 4 2 3 6 3 3 3 5 8 4 2 4 5 4 4 Russia 1 1 2 1 1 0 4 1 2 1 4 0 1 0 0 1 2 Other 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Don't know 23 20 27 18 27 21 27 28 25 16 19 20 26 28 21 24 25
  • 12. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 44% think the U.S.’s math and science ranking will fall, and 47% think public schools will be worse in 10 years 12 32% 44% 24% Higher Lower Don't know US students are currently ranked 31st in math and 24th in science when compared to 65 other top industrial countries. Do you expect the US to rank higher or lower in these areas in ten years? 31% 47% 22% Better Worse Don't know Ten years from now, do you expect the American public school system to be better or worse than it is today? All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I US students are currently ranked 31st in math and 24th in science when compared to 65 other top industrial countries. Do you expect the US to rank higher or lower in these areas in ten years? * Higher 32 32 32 32 36 34 24 27 29 45 24 31 34 41 43 34 21 Lower 44 47 41 44 36 42 53 39 51 41 52 45 39 39 36 46 48 Don’t know 24 21 27 23 29 23 23 34 20 14 24 24 27 20 20 20 31 Ten years from now, do you expect the American public school system to be better or worse than it is today?* Better 31 33 29 26 33 38 22 23 30 39 29 27 32 39 39 34 23 Worse 47 48 47 46 45 45 54 46 52 49 49 54 44 44 40 50 51 Don’t know 22 19 24 28 22 17 24 31 18 13 22 20 24 17 21 16 26 ALL N=970 *Reduced base sizes
  • 13. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are most likely to say private school is the best option for children today and will be in 10 years as well 13 23% 17% 10% 11% 32% 33% 16% 18%19% 21% In your opinion, what do you think is the best option for school-aged children in America today? In ten years, what do you think will be the best option for school-aged children in America? Public school Charter school Private school Home schooling Don't know All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I In your opinion, what do you think is the best option for school-aged children in America today? * Public school 23 22 24 30 20 25 18 21 25 24 28 19 23 24 29 22 20 Charter school 10 11 9 13 7 8 12 7 12 13 7 11 10 12 8 17 6 Private school 32 34 30 23 41 34 26 22 33 42 36 33 27 34 37 30 29 Home schooling 16 15 18 14 15 17 20 21 17 11 14 19 18 12 9 19 20 Don’t know 19 18 20 20 17 16 24 29 14 10 15 19 22 18 16 13 25 In ten years, what do you think will be the best option for school-aged children in America? * Public school 17 14 20 19 15 19 15 15 20 20 17 14 23 12 21 16 15 Charter school 11 13 8 13 8 11 12 10 11 12 9 13 9 12 11 16 6 Private school 33 38 29 28 39 36 28 21 36 41 39 36 26 37 34 34 32 Home schooling 18 16 21 15 15 19 23 23 17 15 16 21 20 15 10 19 23 Don’t know 21 19 22 24 23 16 22 31 17 12 19 17 23 24 24 14 23 ALL N=970 *Reduced base sizes
  • 14. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 43% think that fewer Americans will go to college in 10 years, but 41% think it will be a good investment 14 37% 43% 20% More Fewer Don't know Do you think more or fewer people will go to college in ten years as compared to now 41% 30% 29% A good investment A bad investment Don't know At a conservative rate of yearly 3% tuition increases, the annual tuition for a four-year public university in 2024 would be more than $26,000, and the average tuition of a four-year private university would be more than $58,000. Do you think getting a college degree in ten years will be a good investment or a bad investment? All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you think more or fewer people will go to college in ten years as compared to now?* More 37 41 34 34 37 43 30 26 37 47 39 34 37 38 48 40 27 Fewer 43 43 44 48 37 40 50 48 46 40 39 49 43 42 34 44 50 Don’t know 20 16 23 18 25 17 20 27 17 13 22 16 20 21 18 16 23 Do you think getting a college degree in ten years will be a good investment or a bad investment? * A good investment 41 48 34 40 38 42 43 35 45 48 40 41 40 46 40 43 41 A bad investment 30 29 30 32 34 27 27 33 29 27 33 35 26 26 31 28 31 Don’t know 29 23 35 28 27 30 30 33 26 25 27 25 35 28 29 30 28 ALL N=970 GROUP B N=1031 *Reduced base sizes
  • 15. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most parents think a college degree will be more important for their children to have, but half do not think they will be able to afford it 15 56% 26% 7% 11% More important No more or less important Less important Don't know IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, do you think it will be more important, less important or no more or less important for your children to have a college degree in ten years than it was for you? (N=354) 29% 50% 20% Yes No Don't know IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, by the time they go to college, do you think you will be able to afford your children’s college education? (N=354) All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, Do you think it will be more important, less important or no more or less important for your children to have a college degree in ten years than it was for you?* More important 56 51 60 65 53 53 58 42 62 63 50 61 50 100 65 56 49 No more or less important 26 32 22 23 23 24 31 35 18 26 29 21 33 0 17 27 32 Less important 7 7 7 8 12 5 5 9 7 5 7 6 9 0 10 4 7 Don’t know 11 10 11 5 13 18 6 14 12 5 14 11 8 0 7 13 12 IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, by the time they go to college, do you think you will be able to afford your children’s college education?* Yes 29 49 18 37 16 29 36 21 20 51 40 27 25 0 30 29 29 No 50 34 60 48 63 54 39 68 52 32 35 57 55 6 48 56 48 Don’t know 20 17 22 15 21 17 26 10 28 17 25 16 20 94 23 15 23 ALL *Reduced base sizes
  • 16. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 64% think that it will be difficult for their children to find jobs in 10 years 16 IF HAVE CHILDREN UNDER 18 LIVING AT HOME, in ten years, will it be easy or difficult for your children to find good jobs? 9% 16% 38% 26% 10% Very easy Somewhat easy Somewhat difficult Very difficult Don't know In 2024 ALL, N=675 IF HAVE CHILDREN UNDER 18 LIVING AT HOME, in ten years, will it be easy or difficult for your children to find good jobs? * All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Very easy 9 15 6 11 7 7 13 6 6 17 12 9 8 0 11 8 9 Somewhat easy 16 20 14 10 14 16 23 14 18 18 23 14 12 25 19 16 15 Somewhat difficult 38 34 41 36 39 43 34 36 38 42 33 41 37 71 37 45 34 Very difficult 26 21 29 30 29 25 21 31 29 17 22 28 27 0 26 23 28 Don’t know 10 10 11 13 12 9 9 13 9 7 10 8 15 4 7 8 15 *Reduced base sizes
  • 17. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 60% of parents think their kids will be better off in 10 years than they were at the same age 17 60% 21% 18% Parents N=354 Yes No Don't know IF PARENTS: In ten years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their age? All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Yes 60 72 54 72 61 51 6 59 56 65 No 21 18 23 12 21 26 94 24 23 18 Don't know 18 10 23 15 18 22 0 17 21 18
  • 18. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 About half say they were better off financially 10 years ago and will be better off 10 years from now 18 52% 48% 31% 26% 16% 26% Ten years ago, were you better off or worse off financially than you are today? In ten years, do you expect to be better off or worse off financially than you are today? Better off Worse off Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=1031 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years ago, were you better off or worse off financially than you are today?* Better off 52 50 54 40 55 52 62 48 60 49 Worse off 31 31 32 37 28 33 26 36 28 30 Don't know 16 19 14 23 17 15 12 16 12 21 In ten years, do you expect to be better off or worse off financially than you are today?* Better off 48 52 44 60 54 46 31 49 45 50 Worse off 26 23 28 18 20 27 42 25 29 23 Don't know 26 25 27 22 26 28 28 26 26 26
  • 19. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 48% do not expect to retire in 10 years, and 45% don’t expect to be on a path to retirement 19 ALL N=1031 42% 48% 9% Yes No Don't know In ten years, do you think you will be retired? 38% 45% 17% Yes No Don't know IF NOT RETIRED, in ten years, do you think you will be on a path to affording retirement? All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I In ten years, do you think you will be retired? * Yes 42 44 40 46 45 44 35 44 43 38 7 21 54 93 45 47 36 No 48 48 49 44 48 45 56 43 51 52 87 70 30 4 42 47 55 Don’t know 9 8 11 10 7 11 9 13 6 10 6 9 16 2 13 6 9 IF NOT RETIRED, in ten years, do you think you will be on a path to affording retirement? * Yes 38 45 31 41 32 30 52 29 36 59 34 38 35 48 37 40 38 No 45 38 51 40 56 46 36 50 51 27 52 47 47 31 43 48 44 Don’t know 17 16 18 18 12 23 12 21 14 14 14 15 18 21 20 13 18 *Reduced base sizes
  • 20. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 46% think they will be able to afford regular vacations 10 years from now 20 59% 44% 46%33% 48% 33% 8% 8% 21% Ten years ago, were you able to afford to go on regular vacations? Are you able to afford to go on regular vacations currently? In ten years, do you think you will be able to afford to go on regular vacations? Yes No Don't know ALL *Reduced base sizes ALL N=1031 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years ago, were you able to afford to go on regular vacations?* Yes 59 66 53 33 59 62 84 55 70 54 No 33 26 40 52 34 30 15 37 27 35 Don't know 8 9 7 14 8 8 1 8 4 11 Are you able to afford to go on regular vacations currently?* Yes 44 51 37 40 46 42 48 42 48 42 No 48 38 58 46 44 52 49 50 49 46 Don't know 8 11 5 14 10 5 3 8 3 13 In ten years, do you think you will be able to afford to go on regular vacations? Yes 46 50 41 49 54 40 39 49 49 40 No 33 29 36 35 26 32 44 30 32 36 Don't know 21 20 23 16 20 28 17 21 19 23
  • 21. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: America as “The Indispensable Nation” will become “A More Dispensable Nation” 21
  • 22. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 30% think the U.S.’s global standing will be on the rise in 10 years 22 All Political Affiliation D R I On the rise 30 38 27 27 In decline 43 36 49 45 Don’t know 26 27 24 28 AMERICA’S GLOBAL STANDING Do you think America’s global standing will be on the rise or in decline in ten years? (Showing All) 30% 43% 26% On the rise In decline Don't know In 2024 • 38% of Democrats are optimistic about America’s global standing in 2024 while 49% of Republics are not
  • 23. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 68% name China as a superpower in 2024, while 44% name the U.S. 23 All Income Gender Age Political Affiliation <$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I China 68 66 65 79 72 65 60 68 68 81 74 70 63 United States 44 44 40 48 47 40 41 42 45 49 50 43 38 Russia 43 43 41 48 48 39 34 37 46 59 39 51 41 Japan 21 21 20 21 21 21 23 24 21 14 24 16 23 United Kingdom/England 13 11 15 14 14 13 18 14 12 10 15 11 14 Germany 9 11 7 10 10 8 12 7 7 11 9 8 9 India 9 7 7 13 11 7 7 8 7 16 11 5 10 SUPERPOWERS IN 2024 Which countries do you think will be considered “superpowers” in ten years? Please name as many countries as you think apply. 68% 44% 43% 21% 13%
  • 24. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans predict close alliances with European countries, Canada and Japan in 2024 24 Which countries do you think will be the United States’ closest allies in ten years? Please name as many as you think apply. All Income Gender Age Political Affiliation <$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I United Kingdom / England 50 42 49 63 55 45 36 43 51 78 54 54 44 Canada 27 20 24 39 33 22 20 27 27 37 26 31 26 France 16 16 16 17 15 17 15 15 14 24 22 14 13 Japan 13 12 13 16 17 10 13 14 13 15 14 12 14 Germany 12 9 11 20 13 12 7 8 11 28 17 11 9 China 10 12 9 7 13 7 19 12 6 4 10 7 14 Israel 9 8 9 12 12 7 6 5 10 18 8 15 6 50% 27% 16% 13% 12%
  • 25. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 43% name Russia as a U.S. adversary in 10 years 25 Which countries do you think will be the United States’ main adversaries in ten years. Please name as many as you think apply. All Income Gender Age Political Affiliation <$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Russia 43 37 40 55 47 38 27 37 47 64 41 51 37 China 35 33 35 40 40 30 33 32 33 45 33 38 34 Iran 20 18 18 28 26 15 12 19 22 28 20 23 17 North Korea 15 18 12 17 21 10 14 13 17 17 16 16 14 Iraq 11 10 12 13 10 13 11 10 14 7 11 12 11 Afghanistan 7 7 7 6 5 8 4 7 8 7 7 8 5 43% 35% 20% 15% 11%
  • 26. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most say China will be a main economic competitor in 10 years 26 AMEICA’S ECONOMIC COMPETITORS Which country do you think will be the United States’ main economic competitors in ten years? Please name as many as you think apply. 7 19 34 74 12 21 27 79 18 26 31 85 11 22 30 78 India Russia Japan China All High Income Mid Income Low Income
  • 27. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most say China will be the world’s biggest economic force in 10 years 27 All Income Gender Age Political Affiliation <$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I China 53 49 51 63 59 47 50 52 50 64 53 58 49 United States 20 22 18 18 20 20 20 18 21 19 22 17 20 Which country do you think will be the world’s biggest economic force in ten years? Which country do you think will be the United States’ main economic competitors in ten years? Please name as many as you think apply. All Income Gender Age Political Affiliation <$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I China 78 74 79 85 82 74 71 76 77 92 80 80 75 Japan 30 34 27 31 31 30 29 28 33 32 34 27 30 Russia 22 19 21 26 25 20 28 21 20 21 17 26 24 India 11 7 12 18 14 9 7 9 11 20 12 12 11
  • 28. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 54% think Russia will have expanded geographically and 58% think it will have increased global influence by 2024 28 Yes 54% No 24% Don't know 22% All In ten years, do you think Russia will have expanded geographically? More 58% Less 18% Don't know 24% All In ten years, do you think Russia will have more or less influence in world affairs? 71% of 65+ vs. 46% of 18-29 year olds think Russia will have expanded by 2024
  • 29. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 12% are optimistic for lasting peace in the Middle East by 2024 29 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Yes 12 11 13 16 14 10 8 13 13 11 No 68 76 61 58 66 72 78 68 74 64 Don’t know 20 13 25 25 21 18 14 19 13 25 Do you think that there will be a lasting peace between Israel and its neighbors in the Middle East in ten years? Yes 12% No 68% Don't know 20% ALL
  • 30. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 38% think the U.S.-Israel alliance will be stronger in 10 years 30 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Stronger 38 39 37 32 38 36 49 42 42 31 Weaker 29 33 26 31 28 31 26 27 30 31 Don’t know 33 28 37 38 34 33 24 31 28 38 Do you think the alliance between the United States and Israel will be stronger or weaker in ten years? 38% 29% 33%In 2024 Stronger Weaker Don't know ALL
  • 31. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 45% think the U.S. will have engaged in armed conflict with Iran by 2024 31 Showing “Yes” All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Iran 45 48 43 44 52 46 36 40 51 45 Russia 31 28 34 44 40 29 7 29 30 34 China 19 19 20 25 24 18 6 20 17 21 ARMED CONFLICT WITH THE US In the next ten years, do you think the United States will have engaged in armed conflict with any of the following countries? (Showing Yes) 45% 31% 19% Iran Russia ChinaALL
  • 32. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 57% think there will be another major terrorist attack in the U.S. within 10 years 32 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Yes 57 58 56 45 59 58 67 52 64 56 No 18 21 14 29 19 14 9 17 17 20 Don’t know 25 20 30 27 22 28 24 32 19 25 Do you think there will be another major terrorist attack on American soil in the next ten years? Yes 57% No 18% Don't know 25% ALL Yes 45% No 29% Don't know 27% 18-29 YEAR OLDS
  • 33. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 55% think there will be less peace in the world 10 years from now 33 22% 55% 23% More peace Less peace Don't know In 2024 WORLD PEACE In ten years, do you think there will be more or less peace around the world than there is today? All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More peace 22 23 21 28 27 17 15 27 14 23 Less peace 55 57 54 53 54 56 61 48 67 53 Don’t know 23 20 25 19 19 27 24 25 18 24 ALL
  • 34. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: The future of our ability to govern ourselves is in deep doubt 34
  • 35. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 33% say Americans will be more unified in 10 years 35 More unified 49%Less unified 32% Don't know 19% UNITY IN 2004 Do you think Americans were more or less unified as a people ten years ago than we are today? (Showing All) More unified 33% Less unified 41% Don't know 26% UNITY IN 2024 Do you think Americans will be more or less unified as a people in ten years than we are today? (Showing All)
  • 36. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 54% think the government will be bigger in 10 years 36 Ten Years Ago All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Bigger 24 30 18 25 29 23 17 27 23 23 Smaller 51 53 49 47 45 51 65 42 61 50 Don’t know 25 17 33 29 26 26 18 31 16 27 54% 24% 18% 51% 29% 25% Bigger Smaller Don't know Ten Years Ago In Ten Years Do you think the size of government was bigger or smaller ten years ago than it is today? Do you think the size of government will be bigger or smaller in ten years than it is today? In Ten Years All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Bigger 54 55 52 53 58 49 57 50 59 52 Smaller 18 22 14 20 17 20 13 19 17 18 Don’t know 29 23 34 28 25 31 30 31 25 30 Showing All
  • 37. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 32% think the government will be more effective in 10 years 37 Do you think the American government was more or less effective ten years ago than it is now? Do you think the American government will be more or less effective in ten years than it is now? Do you think the American government will be more or less effective in ten years than it is now? All Race Political Affiliation White African- American Hispanic D R I More effective 32 29 42 44 40 30 28 Less effective 35 37 23 37 26 38 40 Don't know 33 35 35 19 34 32 32 45% 32% 36% 35% 19% 33% In 2004 In 2024 Don't know Less effective More effective
  • 38. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are most likely to say the country has made progress on alternative energy, gone backward on debt over the past 10 years 38 40% 39% 33% 30% 29% 27% 25% 23% 20% 18% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 12% 10% 18% 23% 46% 29% 25% 28% 29% 44% 42% 35% 39% 43% 51% 40% 60% 56% 49% Alternative energy sources Homeland security and terrorism Healthcare Defense and national security Energy independence The environment Transportation and infrastructure Economic growth and job creation Education Foreign policy Size of government Government regulation Traditional family values Income inequality The federal budget and national debt Rising costs of college education Taxes Made progress Gone backward When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States has made progress, gone backward or has there been no change in the past ten years?
  • 39. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans most likely to expect progress on energy, going backward on debt over the next 10 years, too 39 41% 37% 36% 34% 32% 31% 30% 30% 26% 23% 21% 20% 18% 18% 17% 16% 15% 17% 18% 20% 21% 29% 19% 26% 21% 25% 25% 37% 27% 28% 35% 25% 35% 34% Alternative energy sources Energy independence Homeland security and terrorism Defense and national security Healthcare Transportation and infrastructure Economic growth and job creation The environment Education Foreign policy The federal budget and national debt Income inequality Government regulation Traditional family values Size of government Rising costs of college education Taxes Made progress Gone backward When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone backward, or will there have been no change in the next ten years?
  • 40. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Democrats much more optimistic for progress on key issues in 10 years than Republicans 40 Showing “Made Progress,” ranked by All All Income Age Political Affiliation <35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Alternative energy sources 41 39 40 47 35 40 41 49 49 37 36 Energy independence 37 36 33 46 30 40 37 42 45 34 33 Homeland security and terrorism 36 36 32 40 34 38 34 39 43 33 32 Defense and national security 34 35 30 36 34 36 29 40 42 31 30 Healthcare 32 33 29 34 33 34 30 31 46 22 27 Transportation and infrastructure 31 28 33 31 27 35 28 36 41 24 27 Economic growth and job creation 30 28 30 32 32 28 28 36 38 30 23 The environment 30 30 28 35 28 32 31 28 40 24 27 Education 26 26 23 26 30 29 22 25 33 22 23 Foreign policy 23 20 22 27 23 23 21 25 31 19 19 The federal budget and national debt 21 19 17 26 22 22 18 22 29 18 15 Income inequality 20 18 18 26 20 25 18 20 30 19 13 Government regulation 18 15 16 23 19 22 15 17 23 17 14 Traditional family values 18 19 17 19 19 24 17 11 24 16 15 Size of government 17 15 16 23 15 23 16 12 22 15 14 Rising costs of college education 16 19 13 16 17 24 13 11 19 14 16 Taxes 15 16 12 17 14 22 13 9 19 13 13 When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone backward, or will there have been no change in the next ten years?
  • 41. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Older American are particularly likely to foresee the U.S. going backward on the cost of college education in 10 years 41 Showing “Gone Backward,” ranked by All All Income Age Political Affiliation <35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I The federal budget and national debt 37 36 39 35 33 36 38 41 23 43 43 Rising costs of college education 35 31 35 38 26 30 38 46 27 40 36 Traditional family values 35 35 39 33 28 32 37 45 27 44 36 Taxes 34 34 37 33 29 33 37 37 24 45 35 Healthcare 29 29 30 29 21 30 31 32 14 40 32 Government regulation 28 28 28 29 22 27 31 34 16 38 31 Income inequality 27 26 28 28 22 24 28 35 18 30 32 Economic growth and job creation 26 28 24 26 19 31 27 24 15 30 32 Foreign policy 25 23 27 26 25 23 25 31 15 32 29 Education 25 23 26 28 19 26 28 28 18 29 29 Size of government 25 23 27 28 20 21 27 34 14 33 29 The environment 21 24 18 21 21 20 20 24 16 22 23 Defense and national security 21 21 19 22 16 21 22 22 12 25 24 Homeland security and terrorism 20 21 22 18 17 21 20 24 12 26 23 Transportation and infrastructure 19 18 19 20 15 21 19 21 12 23 22 Energy independence 18 19 19 18 17 18 18 21 11 23 20 Alternative energy sources 17 16 18 15 21 17 14 16 10 20 20 When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone backward, or will there have been no change in the next ten years?
  • 42. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans think there will be more urgency in 2024 to solve issues related to economic growth, job creation, and debt 42 64% 63% 60% 59% 57% 57% 57% 55% 55% 54% 53% 51% 49% 47% 45% 44% 39% 62% 67% 59% 65% 60% 64% 59% 65% 55% 56% 57% 54% 52% 55% 43% 44% 32% 62% 63% 66% 56% 61% 53% 53% 45% 60% 55% 55% 51% 49% 39% 48% 48% 48% ALL Democrats Republicans Ten years from now, do you expect there to be more urgency or less urgency for the United States to address each of these issues than there is today? Showing “More urgency”
  • 43. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Younger Americans less concerned with debt/budget issues, more concerned with education, than older Americans 43 Ranked by All All Income Age Political Affiliation <35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I The federal budget and national debt 35 37 33 39 27 32 40 43 30 39 37 Healthcare 34 32 32 35 34 32 38 27 31 36 35 Economic growth and job creation 29 30 29 29 25 30 30 30 27 29 30 Homeland security and terrorism 24 29 21 23 16 23 29 25 27 24 22 Defense and national security 22 24 21 21 20 18 26 23 18 32 18 Taxes 18 19 22 16 19 20 17 17 19 24 14 The environment 15 15 13 14 18 15 14 11 20 9 15 Income inequality 15 17 15 14 20 17 11 14 22 7 16 Energy independence 14 13 15 15 9 11 16 21 17 14 12 Education 13 11 17 12 23 13 10 7 16 9 14 Traditional family values 11 9 14 10 7 12 11 14 9 14 10 Foreign policy 10 8 11 12 14 10 9 9 11 9 11 Alternative energy sources 9 9 11 9 8 9 9 12 14 7 7 Government regulation 9 9 9 9 8 10 9 9 5 11 11 Size of government 9 6 10 12 6 10 9 10 3 12 11 Rising costs of college education 8 7 9 8 9 10 5 7 8 6 8 Transportation and infrastructure 6 4 6 7 6 5 5 7 6 3 7 What do you think will be the top three most important issues facing the United States in ten years? Please select up to three.
  • 44. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Republicans and Democrats want progress on healthcare and economic growth in the next 10 years 44 Ranked by All All Income Age Political Affiliation <35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Healthcare 32 36 30 29 28 33 36 28 34 31 32 Economic growth and job creation 30 31 26 33 25 32 31 31 28 36 27 The federal budget and national debt 25 25 26 27 19 22 26 38 23 32 23 Taxes 20 19 24 21 22 22 19 19 17 25 19 Education 17 14 22 16 26 18 15 10 21 12 18 Energy independence 16 14 15 19 9 12 18 26 20 14 14 Income inequality 16 18 17 12 16 18 14 17 21 9 18 The environment 15 17 12 15 18 14 13 13 19 9 15 Homeland security and terrorism 15 15 15 16 8 15 16 19 16 16 13 Traditional family values 15 14 16 16 13 15 17 16 13 21 12 Defense and national security 12 15 9 13 5 10 15 20 10 17 11 Alternative energy sources 10 11 10 9 5 13 11 7 14 6 9 Size of government 10 6 11 12 6 9 11 13 3 14 12 Rising costs of college education 10 9 10 9 19 10 6 6 11 8 10 Government regulation 7 4 9 7 8 7 7 5 4 8 8 Foreign policy 6 2 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 4 8 Transportation and infrastructure 6 8 3 9 4 6 6 10 9 3 7 On which issues would you most like to see progress made in the next ten years? Please select up to three.
  • 45. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 18% think Obamacare will exist with only minor changes in 10 years 45 What do you think the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, will be like in ten years? 18% 35% 32% 15% ALL It will exist with only minor changes It will exist but with major changes It will no longer exist All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I It will exist with only minor changes 18 18 17 17 18 19 16 19 17 18 18 16 16 22 29 7 16 It will exist but with major changes 35 43 27 30 34 36 39 30 37 38 27 34 36 46 34 35 36 It will no longer exist 32 25 38 34 30 33 32 35 30 32 38 32 33 24 23 46 29 Don’t know 15 13 17 20 18 12 14 16 15 12 17 18 16 9 13 13 19 *Reduced base sizes ALL N=1031
  • 46. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 35% think their healthcare will be better in 10 years 46 Do you think that the healthcare you will receive in ten years will be better or worse than the healthcare you receive now? 35% 37% 28% Better Worse Don't know In 2024 All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Better 35 35 34 33 37 39 27 27 36 42 27 39 33 41 45 36 26 Worse 37 43 32 36 35 37 41 35 41 40 37 37 41 30 23 49 40 Don’t know 28 22 34 31 27 25 33 38 23 18 36 24 26 29 33 14 35 *Reduced base sizes ALL N=970
  • 47. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are more likely to foresee a national health care program than a private health care system in 10 years 47 In ten years, do you think the United States will have a national health care program supplied to everyone by the government instead of a private health care system? 38% 27% 36% ALL National healthcare Private healthcare Don't know *Reduced base sizes Among Group B All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I National healthcare 38 41 35 35 40 38 36 37 41 36 40 40 37 33 41 29 42 Private healthcare 27 29 25 36 23 24 29 25 25 35 20 27 26 37 25 38 20 Don’t know 36 31 40 29 37 38 35 38 34 30 40 33 38 31 34 33 39 ALL N=1031
  • 48. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 77% believe they will have less privacy from the government in 10 years, and 58% see that as a bad thing 48 PRIVACY FROM US GOVERNMENT In ten years, do you expect to have more or less privacy from the U.S. government than you do today? (Showing All) 10% 77% 13% More privacy Less privacy Don't know In 2024 20% 58% 22% Good thing Bad thing Don't know In 2024 PRIVACY ON SOCIETY Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing All) All Age Political Affiliation 18-29 65+ D R I Privacy from the U.S. government in 2024 More privacy 10 14 4 9 15 8 Less privacy 77 73 83 76 75 78 Don't know 13 13 13 15 9 14 Will that be a good thing or a bad thing? Good thing 20 23 21 29 20 13 Bad thing 58 59 55 49 62 63 Don't know 22 18 24 23 17 24
  • 49. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 49 51 49 57 56 33 74 71 73 77 75 35 37 31 29 48 13 14 17 9 15 10 YEARS FROM NOW Currently, do you think there are cameras watching you most of the time? In ten years, do you think there will be cameras watching you most of the time? CURRENTLY No Yes All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ 74% think there will be cameras watching them most of the time in 2024 29% 45% 26% Good thing Bad thing Don't know In 2024 Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing All)
  • 50. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 50 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Safer 42 47 36 35 47 42 40 44 39 42 Less safe 31 29 32 37 30 27 31 27 37 28 Don’t know 28 24 32 27 23 32 29 29 24 30 Do you think that the government’s surveillance of electronic communications and cellphone records will make the country safer or less safe ten years from now than it is today? 42% 31% 28% Safer Less safe Don't know In 2024 42% say the government’s electronic surveillance will make the country safer in 10 years ALL
  • 51. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 51 Do you think there will be more or less gun violence in America in ten years than there is now? 58% think there will be more gun violence in the next ten years, as well as more gun law in the next ten years 58%18% 23% ALL More gun violence Less gun violence Don't know Do you think there will be more or fewer gun control laws in the United States in ten years? 58%20% 22% ALL More gun laws Fewer gun laws Don't know All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you think there will be more or less gun violence in America in ten years than there is now? More gun violence 58 57 60 51 58 62 60 63 53 58 Less gun violence 18 22 15 27 20 14 12 15 25 16 Don't know 23 21 25 22 22 24 27 22 22 26 Do you think there will be more or fewer gun control laws in the United States in ten years? More gun laws 58 59 56 58 63 53 58 57 61 56 Fewer gun laws 20 22 18 21 17 21 22 23 20 18 Don't know 22 19 26 21 20 26 20 20 19 26
  • 52. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 52 63% 50% 45% 37% 34% 17% Background checks for all gun sales Assault weapons ban Ban on sales of high- capacity/extended ammunition magazines Armed guards in schools Increased investment in mental health programs Don't know Which of the following gun control measures do you think will be the law in ten years? Choose as many as you think will be the law. (Showing All) 63% think background checks for all gun sales will be the law by 2024 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Background checks for all gun sales 63 63 63 56 64 63 71 61 67 62 Assault weapons ban 50 50 50 40 50 48 65 52 50 48 Ban on sales of high-capacity/extended ammunition magazines 45 45 46 34 43 48 58 45 47 44 Armed guards in schools 37 37 37 30 40 39 39 36 36 38 Increased investment in mental health programs 34 34 34 36 36 32 32 36 31 35 Don't know 17 15 18 23 14 19 10 17 13 20
  • 53. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 62% believe that poverty will be more prevalent in 2024 than it is today 53 62% 34% 16% 48% 22% 18% More prevalent Less prevalent Don't know Ten Years Ago In Ten Years PREVALENCE OF POVERTY Do you think poverty was more prevalent or less prevalent in the U.S. ten years ago than it is today? (Showing All) Do you think poverty will be more prevalent or less prevalent in the U.S. in ten years than it is today? (Showing All) 66% of those aged 30-44 years believe that poverty will be more prevalent in 2024, compared to just 52% of Millennials Poverty Prevalence in 2024 All Age 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ More prevalent 62 52 66 61 71 Less prevalent 16 22 17 14 10 Don’t know 22 26 18 25 19  Older audiences more so than Millennials believe that poverty will be more prevalent in 2024 with 71% of those over 65 years old and 66% of those aged 30-44 years agreeing
  • 54. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 54 34% 29% 24% 23% 18% 2% 31% 37% 27% 27% 16% 1% 39% 26% 22% 22% 14% 2% 32% 25% 23% 19% 24% 2% Nothing major is likely to happen in reaction to income inequality Tax reform to redistribute wealth Large scale street demonstrations Restrictions on executive pay Don't know Other All Democrat Republican Independent Which of the following do you think will happen in the next ten years in reaction to income inequality in the United States? You can select multiple responses if necessary. 34% think nothing major will happen in the next 10 years in reaction to income inequality
  • 55. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 55 Do you think race relations in America were better or worse ten years ago than they are now? (Showing All) 40% think race relations in America have gotten better in the past 10 years, and 46% think they will be better in 2024 40% 36% 25% Better Worse Don't know Do you think race relations in America will be better or worse in ten years than they are now? (Showing All) 46% 28% 26% Better Worse Don't know All Gender Race Political Affiliation M F White Black Hispanic Other D R I Do you think race relations in America were better or worse ten years ago than they are now? Better 40 42 38 39 43 42 37 35 44 40 Worse 36 37 34 36 35 41 29 40 36 32 Don't know 25 21 28 26 23 17 34 25 20 28 Do you think race relations in America will be better or worse in ten years than they are now? Better 46 48 44 45 42 57 38 51 47 40 Worse 28 30 26 28 32 25 28 21 31 31 Don't know 26 22 30 27 26 18 34 28 21 29
  • 56. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 30% think Congress will be more effective in 2024 than in 2014 56 More effective 44% Less effective 33% Don't know 23% ALL Do you think the US Congress was more or less effective ten years ago than it is today? More effective 30% Less effective 38% Don't know 32% ALL Do you think the US Congress will be more or less effective ten years from now than it is today?
  • 57. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 59% say they are more likely to vote in 2024 than today 57 Ten years ago, were you more or less likely to vote than you are today? All Gender Age Political Affiliation Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More likely 49 53 45 37 49 54 56 46 58 45 Less likely 32 29 34 38 36 26 28 34 26 34 Don’t know 19 18 20 24 15 20 16 20 16 21 In ten years, do you think you will be more or less likely to vote than you are today? All Gender Age Political Affiliation Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More likely 59 58 61 49 60 61 69 67 71 44 Less likely 20 20 19 25 21 17 16 16 14 28 Don’t know 21 22 20 26 19 23 15 18 15 28 59% 49% 60% 61% 69% More Likely to Vote in 2024 than 2014 ALL 18-29 y/o 30-44 y/o 45-64 y/o 65+ y/o
  • 58. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 43% say their vote will matter more in 2024 58 Ten years ago, do you think your vote mattered more or matter less than it does today? All Gender Age Political Affiliation Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More 43 46 41 32 43 46 53 41 52 39 Less 27 28 27 32 30 27 19 30 26 26 Don’t know 29 26 32 36 28 27 28 29 21 36 In ten years, do you think your vote will matter more or matter less than it does today? All Gender Age Political Affiliation Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More 39 38 40 31 41 40 43 49 39 30 Less 33 35 31 32 32 34 35 23 38 39 Don’t know 28 27 29 36 27 26 22 28 24 31
  • 59. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 67% predict that money will be more of a dominant force in politics in ten years than today 59 Do you think money was more or less of a dominant force in American politics ten years ago than it is today? All Gender Age Political Affiliation Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More of a force 41 43 39 43 44 40 34 44 41 38 Less of a force 40 39 41 32 38 40 54 36 43 41 Don’t know 19 18 20 25 18 20 12 20 16 21 Do you think money will be more or less of a dominant force in American politics in ten years than it is today? All Gender Age Political Affiliation Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More of a force 67 67 66 60 66 69 73 67 68 65 Less of a force 13 14 12 16 17 12 7 13 12 14 Don’t know 20 19 21 24 17 20 20 19 20 21 More of a force 67%Less of a force 13% Don't know 20% ALL
  • 60. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 60 58% 68% 63% 45% 19% 14% 18% 24%23% 17% 19% 31% All Democrat Republican Independent Yes No Don't know A majority say the two party system will still dominate in 10 years, and 31% think the Republican Party will attract more minorities Do you think the two political party system (Republicans and Democrats) will still be dominant in ten years? 31% 22% 41% 30%34% 54% 23% 27% 35% 24% 36% 43% All Democrat Republican Independent More African Americans and Latino voters Fewer African Americans and Latino voters Don't know Do you think the Republican Party in ten years will attract more or fewer African America and Latino voters than it does now?
  • 61. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 61 25% 16% 38% 22% 42% 57% 34% 35%33% 27% 29% 43% All Democrat Republican Independent More Less Don't know 42% think the Tea Party will be less of a political force in 10 years Do you think the Tea Party will be more or less of a force in American politics in ten years?
  • 62. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: A new social issue consensus is emerging 62
  • 63. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 63 73% 15% 12% Yes No Don't know Showing All Legalizing Same Sex Marriage All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Yes 73 67 78 66 73 74 79 78 68 73 No 15 20 11 21 16 13 10 13 20 13 Don’t know 12 13 11 13 10 13 11 9 12 14 In ten years, do you think same sex marriage will be legal in the majority of U.S. states? Most believe same-sex marriage and marijuana will be legal in most states by 2024 In ten years, do you think marijuana will be legal in the majority of U.S. states? 66% 21% 13% Yes No Don't know Showing All Legalizing Marijuana All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Yes 66 62 69 57 67 68 70 70 57 69 No 21 24 18 26 24 17 18 19 28 17 Don’t know 13 14 13 16 9 15 12 10 15 15
  • 64. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 64 FAMILY VALUES SINCE 2004 Do you think the definition of family values has changed in the United States over the past ten years? (Showing All) FAMILY VALUES CHANGING Do you think the definition of family values will change in the United States over the next ten years? (Showing All) 62% believe the definition of family values will change a little in the next 10 years 57% 23% 11% 9% All Yes - a great deal Yes - but only a little No - it hasn't changed Don't know 11% 62% 7% 20% All No - it won't change Yes - but only a little No- it hasn't changed Don't know Family Values Changing Since 2004 All Gender Male Female Yes – a great deal 57 53 62 Yes – but only a little 23 26 21 No – it hasn’t changed 11 13 9 Don't know 9 9 9 Family Values Changing in 2024 All Gender Male Female No – it won't change 11 10 12 Yes – but only a little 62 64 60 No – it hasn’t changed 7 7 7 Don't know 20 18 22  Females think the definition of family values has changed over the past ten years more than males do
  • 65. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 54% expect climate change to affect them more in 10 years 65 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think the effects of climate change will affect you more or less than they do today? 54% 20% 26% Will affect me more Will affect me less Don't know ALL 75% 72% 63% 60% 50% 46% 43% 3% Extreme temperatures More severe storms Severe droughts Melting polar ice caps Food shortages Extinction of species, such as polar bears Coastal communities under water Don't know ALL MOST OBVIOUS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS Which of the effects of climate change will be more obvious in 10 years?
  • 66. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 66 Most believe there will be more droughts, forest fires, superstorms and tsunamis in 10 years 66% 66% 65% 52% 13% 14% 13% 15% 21% 21% 22% 33% Droughts Forest fires Superstorms, like Sandy Tsunamis More Less Don’t know In ten years, do you think there will be more or less of the following? (Showing All)
  • 67. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 67 54% 39% 48% 60% 68% 27% 41% 33% 19% 17%19% 20% 19% 21% 15% All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes No Don't know Do you think Americans will be having fewer children ten years from now than they are having today? Most think that Americans will be having fewer children in 2024 and that they will be raised worse than they are now 21% 29% 23% 18% 15% 54% 47% 56% 53% 61% 25% 24% 20% 29% 24% All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Better Worse Don't know Do you think children in the United States will be raised better or worse in ten years than they are now?
  • 68. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024  According to Americans, a gay president is the least likely to be elected by 2024 68 US LEADER BY 2024 Ten years from now, do you think the United States will have elected the following? (Showing % saying ‘Yes’) 14% 13% 15% 16% 10% 16% 67% 67% 68% 78% 58% 66% 31% 33% 30% 32% 30% 32%30% 29% 32% 37% 28% 27% All Male Female Democrat Republican Independent A gay president A female president A Hispanic president An African American president Most think the U.S. will elect a female president in the next 10 years US Leaders by 2024 All Age Race 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White African- American Hispanic A female president 67 64 68 67 73 68 64 70 A Hispanic president 31 34 33 27 34 28 23 59 An African-American president )other than President Obama) 30 39 38 23 22 26 43 42 A gay president 14 20 19 8 11 13 15 20
  • 69. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 69 44% think Spanish will be more widely spoken than English in the U.S. in 10 years 60% 16% 3% 2% 2% 18% 54% 19% 3% 2% 3% 19% 65% 14% 3% 1% 1% 17% Spanish Chinese Japanese French German Don't know All Male Female Which of the following non-English languages do you think it will be most useful to know in ten years? In ten years, do you think Spanish will be more widely spoken than English in the United States? 44% 38% 18% Yes No Don't know In 2024
  • 70. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 70 27% 9% 42% 36% 16% 38% 15% 17% Which generation do you think has the most influence over the country today? Ten years from now, which generation do you expect to have more influence over the country? Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials Don't know All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Which generation do you think has the most influence over the country today? Baby Boomers 27 27 27 18 23 32 36 29 26 26 Generation X 42 41 44 35 48 41 45 44 47 38 Millennials 16 17 15 34 16 10 6 14 14 19 Don't know 15 15 15 13 14 17 13 13 13 17 Ten years from now, which generation do you expect to have more influence over the country? Baby Boomers 9 8 10 6 6 11 13 12 11 5 Generation X 36 37 34 23 36 39 45 34 39 35 Millennials 38 39 37 54 41 30 29 39 36 39 Don't know 17 16 19 17 17 19 13 16 14 21 Americans are most likely to say Millennials and Generation X will have the most influence in 10 years ALL
  • 71. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 68% expect college classes to be taught mostly online and 51% view this as a good thing 71 68% 12% 19% More than half Less than half Don't know Ten years from now, how many college or university classes do you expect to be taught online vs. via teachers present in the same physical classroom? 51% 27% 23% Better Worse Don't know IF EXPECT ONLINE COURSES, do you think online classes will make education better or worse than it is today? All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years from now, how many college or university classes do you expect to be taught online vs. via teachers present in the same physical classroom?* More than half 68 64 72 69 73 69 62 68 71 67 64 69 64 80 71 70 65 Less than half 12 13 12 18 9 10 15 12 10 17 17 11 13 9 12 13 13 Don’t know 19 22 16 13 18 21 23 20 20 16 18 20 23 12 17 17 23 IF EXPECT ONLINE COURSES, do you think online classes will make education better or worse than it is today?* Better 51 57 45 52 51 45 58 56 49 47 57 56 43 49 45 46 60 Worse 27 24 29 24 24 34 22 26 28 29 24 22 32 27 30 29 21 Don’t know 23 19 26 25 25 22 20 18 24 25 20 22 24 24 25 25 19 ALL N=1031 *Reduced base sizes
  • 72. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: The United States of Technology is in our future 72
  • 73. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 63% say technology has made their lives better and 60% think it will continue to do so in the next 10 years 73 63% 60% 16% 16%21% 24% Since 2004, have personal technology advancements made your life better or worse? In ten years, do you think that advancements in technology such as phones, computers, TVs, and music players will make your life better or worse than it is today? Better Worse Don't Know All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Since 2004, have personal technology advancements made your life better or worse? Better 63 66 60 60 59 65 65 58 66 68 62 67 63 55 64 62 62 Worse 16 16 16 16 14 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 15 23 14 19 15 Don’t know 21 18 24 24 28 18 18 26 18 16 23 19 22 22 22 19 23 In ten years, do you think that advancements in technology will make your life better or worse than it is today? Better 60 63 56 57 57 61 61 57 63 64 61 62 58 58 62 64 54 Worse 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 16 15 17 17 13 16 22 15 16 18 Don’t know 24 21 27 26 27 21 23 27 22 19 23 24 26 20 23 20 28 Ten years ago in 2004, Americans were using newly released iPods and iPod Minis to listen to music. Basic mobile phones without touchscreen or data capabilities were used primarily, and laptops were just beginning to gain popularity over desktops. ALL
  • 74. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Technology entrepreneurs are seen as most likely to be leaders in 10 years 74 44% 37% 34% 23% 20% 16% 22% In ten years, which groups of people will be considered leaders in our society? Please choose any that apply. Technology entrepreneurs Political figures Business leaders Celebrities Philanthropic leaders Athletes None of the above All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I In ten years, which groups of people will be considered leaders in our society? Please choose any that apply. (Multiple responses permitted) Technology entrepreneurs 44 43 45 33 45 46 53 47 43 43 Political figures 37 36 38 38 34 37 39 38 39 34 Business leaders 34 36 32 25 36 32 45 35 37 30 Celebrities 23 22 25 30 30 15 20 22 25 23 Philanthropic leaders 20 19 21 17 18 19 29 28 19 14 Athletes 16 19 14 17 20 13 17 18 17 14 None of the above 22 21 23 23 23 24 16 19 20 26 ALL
  • 75. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 41% think social media has made their lives better in the last 10 years, and 36% think it will make their lives better in the next 10 years 75 41% 36% 24% 26% 35% 38% In 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term "social media" had not been coined. Has social media made your life better or worse in the past ten years? Do you think that social media will make your life better or worse in the next decade? Better Worse Don't know ALL All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I In 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term "social media" had not been coined. Has social media made your life better or worse in the past ten years? Better 41 36 45 36 49 40 35 43 45 35 Worse 24 30 19 31 21 22 26 21 24 28 Don't know 35 34 36 33 30 38 39 36 31 37 Do you think that social media will make your life better or worse in the next decade? Better 36 36 36 39 42 33 31 40 38 32 Worse 26 29 23 30 25 24 26 22 28 27 Don't know 38 35 41 31 33 44 43 38 34 41
  • 76. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 44% believe technology communication will increase in the next decade, while face-to-face will decrease 76 63% 41% 29% 44% 9% 15% Which method of communication do you prefer today? Ten years from now, do you think you will opt to communicate face-to-face or via technology when given the choice? Face-to-face Via technoogy Don't Know ALL All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Which method of communication do you prefer today? Face-to-face 63 62 63 63 69 61 60 63 64 63 48 58 70 75 65 62 61 Via technology 29 30 28 30 24 30 30 26 30 31 38 35 22 22 27 32 28 Don’t know 9 8 9 8 7 9 10 10 6 5 14 8 8 4 8 6 11 Ten years from now, do you think will opt to communicate face-to-face or via technology when given the choice? Face-to-face 41 40 42 39 44 41 39 39 42 40 41 39 40 45 43 38 41 Via technology 44 47 41 41 41 45 46 43 43 50 41 48 42 43 41 49 41 Don’t know 15 13 17 19 15 14 14 17 15 10 18 12 18 11 15 13 18
  • 77. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are most likely to think they will use smartphones, laptops, and tablets in 10 years 77 75% 73% 66% 60% 52% 35% 29% 26% 16% 17% 22% 32% 36% 50% 54% 55% 10% 10% 12% 8% 13% 15% 16% 19% Smartphone Laptop computer Tablet Desktop computer Electronic reading device Smart watch Google glass Driverless car Yes No Don't know Do you think you will use the following technological devices in ten years? ALL
  • 78. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Millennials are most likely to envision themselves using various devices in 10 years 78 Do you think you will use the following technological devices in ten years? Ranked by All, saying Yes All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Smartphone Yes 75 77 72 77 71 72 79 67 81 83 78 83 75 55 75 74 75 No 16 14 18 15 18 16 14 21 12 12 11 11 15 32 16 17 15 Don’t know 10 9 10 8 11 12 7 12 8 5 11 6 10 13 9 9 10 Laptop computer Yes 73 71 74 77 66 74 73 72 71 78 79 75 72 63 71 76 72 No 17 19 15 15 22 15 16 16 20 14 14 17 15 24 17 16 17 Don’t know 10 10 11 8 11 10 11 13 9 8 7 8 13 13 12 7 11 Tablet Yes 66 66 66 66 64 67 67 57 71 77 67 73 65 56 69 65 64 No 22 21 22 26 23 20 20 29 20 14 21 19 20 30 18 24 23 Don’t know 12 12 12 8 14 13 13 15 9 9 12 7 15 15 13 10 13 Desktop computer Yes 60 63 57 58 60 58 65 59 61 58 60 60 58 64 62 63 56 No 32 28 35 36 32 33 26 31 31 36 31 34 32 28 29 29 35 Don’t know 8 8 9 6 8 10 9 10 8 7 9 7 10 8 9 8 9 Electronic reading device Yes 52 50 54 59 49 50 52 47 57 55 54 55 53 42 54 53 49 No 36 38 33 25 40 37 37 39 32 36 35 35 32 45 34 35 37 Don’t know 13 12 13 16 11 13 11 15 11 9 12 10 15 13 12 11 14 Smart watch Yes 35 41 29 36 24 38 38 28 37 39 44 37 34 20 34 33 36 No 50 47 53 44 62 46 50 55 49 50 46 48 47 64 50 53 47 Don’t know 15 12 18 20 14 16 12 17 14 11 10 15 19 16 16 13 16 Google glass Yes 29 36 23 26 24 32 32 25 29 36 39 35 27 11 32 22 32 No 54 49 59 58 63 49 52 59 56 51 46 51 53 73 54 62 49 Don’t know 16 15 18 16 13 19 16 16 16 13 15 13 20 16 14 16 18 Driverless car Yes 26 29 23 25 22 27 28 22 30 28 30 32 24 15 26 23 27 No 55 53 58 55 61 53 54 60 53 54 47 55 55 67 52 60 55 Don’t know 19 19 19 20 17 20 18 18 16 18 23 13 21 18 22 17 18
  • 79. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are most likely to think technology will make communication and work productivity better in 10 years 79 62% 61% 49% 35% 35% 18% 23% 24% 32% 26%20% 16% 27% 33% 39% How productive you are at work The way you communicate with your friends and family The way you interact with colleagues at work The way you meet romantic partners The way you feel about yourself Better Worse Don't know Ten years from now, do you think technology will be making each of the following better or worse? Ranked by All All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I How productive you are at work Better 62 66 59 65 59 66 57 56 62 73 56 64 64 64 64 68 56 Worse 18 17 19 18 20 18 16 19 18 16 23 18 16 16 14 18 21 The way you communicate with your friends and family Better 61 64 57 62 65 57 62 61 60 65 58 63 60 62 61 67 55 Worse 23 19 27 23 21 27 19 19 28 24 24 22 23 25 23 22 24 The way you interact with colleagues at work Better 49 57 43 48 49 52 47 49 46 56 51 57 47 40 51 50 48 Worse 24 19 28 22 22 26 23 18 29 25 28 22 23 23 23 26 23 The way you meet romantic partners Better 35 39 32 35 31 38 36 33 38 37 38 41 34 26 35 36 35 Worse 32 29 34 36 28 34 29 30 33 32 39 30 27 35 32 32 31 The way you feel about yourself Better 35 42 29 33 30 39 37 31 36 41 37 41 30 36 38 37 32 Worse 26 24 27 25 29 25 24 27 25 26 34 25 23 21 25 26 26 ALL *Not showing “Don’t know”
  • 80. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most foresee robots, drones and “smart” medicine being widely used in 10 years 80 Do you think the following technology will be widely used in ten years? All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Robots Yes 59 63 55 55 59 60 59 53 63 61 54 56 60 68 58 59 60 No 23 24 23 24 25 20 26 23 22 28 31 28 19 15 25 23 22 Don’t know 18 13 23 21 16 20 15 24 16 11 15 16 21 17 18 18 18 Drones Yes 70 78 62 67 70 71 69 62 71 77 68 63 74 73 69 75 65 No 14 12 16 15 16 12 14 15 14 13 17 19 9 11 15 11 16 Don’t know 16 10 22 19 14 16 18 23 15 10 15 18 16 16 16 14 19 Medicine capable of monitoring and reporting changes in the body Yes 60 64 56 61 59 57 65 54 64 64 57 59 61 64 64 60 56 No 20 21 20 20 22 22 16 22 17 20 27 23 17 15 19 18 23 Don’t know 20 16 24 19 19 21 19 24 18 15 16 19 23 21 17 22 21
  • 81. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 55% believe they will control all of the electronics and appliances in their houses through one device in 10 years 81 38% 55% 36% 23%26% 22% Do you think the technological device you will use most often ten years from now has been invented yet? Do you think you will be controlling all of the electronics and appliances in your house with one device in ten years? Yes No Don't Know All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you think the technological device you will use most often ten years from now has been invented yet? Yes 38 41 35 32 37 42 37 35 40 39 42 43 37 26 35 41 37 No 36 36 37 41 38 34 36 33 39 41 30 37 33 51 39 37 34 Don’t know 26 23 28 27 25 24 27 32 21 20 28 20 30 23 26 22 28 Do you think you will be controlling all of the electronics and appliances in your house with one device in ten years? Yes 55 58 53 55 53 56 57 51 58 61 59 58 53 51 59 55 53 No 23 23 22 15 27 24 22 21 23 25 23 21 22 27 20 24 24 Don’t know 22 19 25 31 20 20 21 28 19 14 18 21 25 22 22 21 23 ALL
  • 82. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 73% expect companies to collect more information in 10 years, and 56% think that will be bad thing  The older Americans are, the more likely they are to believe companies will collect more information in the future 82 INFORMATION COLLECTION BY PRIVATE COMPANY In ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less information about you than they do today? (Showing All) 73% 12% 15% More information Less information Don't know In 2024 18% 56% 26% Good thing Bad thing Don't know In 2024 INFORMATION COLLECTION ON SOCIETY Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing All) All Age 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ In ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less information about you than they do today? More information 73 54 75 79 83 Less information 12 20 11 10 7 Don't know 15 26 14 11 10 Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? Good thing 18 14 26 15 16 Bad thing 56 54 54 61 53 Don't know 26 32 20 24 31
  • 83. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 80% say they have not had their identity stolen online, and 22% think it will happen in the next 10 years 83 12% 22% 80% 41% 8% 37% Have you had your personal information stolen online? Ten years from now do you think you will have had your personal information stolen online? Yes No Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=1031 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Have you had your personal information stolen online?* Yes 12 12 12 14 17 11 4 14 11 12 No 80 80 80 77 75 80 91 77 82 81 Don't know 8 9 7 8 8 9 5 9 8 7 Ten years from now do you think you will have had your personal information stolen online?* Yes 22 22 22 23 25 22 14 24 18 24 No 41 45 37 50 41 33 43 40 44 38 Don't know 37 34 41 27 34 44 43 37 38 38
  • 84. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 51% think wars in 2024 will be mostly fought with remotely- controlled machines like drones 84 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Yes 27 30 25 29 28 25 27 26 29 26 No 51 53 50 50 54 50 53 54 50 51 Don’t know 22 17 26 21 18 26 20 20 20 23 In ten years, do you expect wars to be fought mostly with soldiers or with remotely-controlled machines (such as drones and robots)? 27% 51% 22%In 2024 Soldiers Machines Don't knowALL
  • 85. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 85 ALL N=1031 33% 58% 47% 23%21% 19% Ten years from now, do you think your job could be replaced by machines? Do you think you will need additional education to be steadily employed in ten years? Yes No Don't Know All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years from now, do you think your job could be replaced by machines? * Yes 33 32 33 38 33 29 32 40 27 30 40 37 29 25 35 30 33 No 47 50 44 37 52 49 46 37 55 54 42 49 46 50 40 52 49 Don’t know 21 18 23 24 15 22 22 24 19 17 18 14 25 25 26 18 18 Do you think you will need additional education to be steadily employed in ten years? * Yes 58 60 57 67 61 54 55 60 61 57 60 53 54 73 58 58 59 No 23 24 22 13 21 25 29 19 22 29 20 27 23 20 20 25 23 Don’t know 19 16 22 21 18 21 16 20 17 14 21 20 23 8 22 17 18 *Reduced base sizes 33% think they jobs could be replaced by machines in 10 years, and 58% think they will need additional education
  • 86. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 86 Imagining 2024: The way we will live
  • 87. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 52% who currently attend religious services expect to attend more frequently in the future 87 *Reduced base sizes All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you currently attend religious services frequently, at least sometimes or never?* Frequently 19 19 20 18 19 21 17 19 31 11 At least sometimes 34 33 35 31 35 33 40 34 38 32 Never 38 40 37 37 38 39 40 41 26 45 Don't know 8 8 8 14 8 7 3 7 5 11 IF ATTENDED: In ten years, do you expect to attend religious services more frequently or less frequently than you do now?* More frequently 52 52 51 53 51 59 37 51 50 55 Less frequently 22 30 16 26 27 18 20 16 28 21 Don't know 26 18 33 21 22 23 43 33 22 23 19% 34% 38% 8% ALL N=970 Frequently At least sometimes Never Don't know Do you currently attend religious services frequently, at least sometimes or never? 52% 22% 26% If Attended N=517 More frequently Less frequently Don't know (If frequently or sometimes attended services) In ten years, do you expect to attend religious services more frequently or less frequently than you do now?
  • 88. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 88 22% 56% 22% More common Less common Don't know Showing All Do you think marriage in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today? Do you think divorce in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today? 63% 15% 22% More common Less common Don't know Showing All 56% think marriage will be less common in 2024, and 63% think divorce will be more common All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you think marriage in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today? More common 22 24 20 28 28 17 15 25 23 19 Less common 56 55 56 47 50 59 67 51 61 54 Don't know 22 21 24 25 22 24 18 23 16 27 Do you think divorce in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today? More common 63 63 64 66 63 61 64 63 63 64 Less common 15 16 15 14 16 15 16 15 18 13 Don't know 22 22 21 20 21 24 20 22 19 24
  • 89. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 86% of married Americans believe they will still be married in 10 years 89 86% 4% 10% Married N=586 Yes No Don't know IF MARRIED: In ten years, do you think you will still be married? All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Yes 86 89 84 87 84 87 88 87 88 83 No 4 3 5 7 4 4 4 6 3 4 Don't know 10 8 11 7 13 9 8 7 9 13
  • 90. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 40% believe transportation infrastructure will be in better shape in 10 years 90 Do you think the transportation infrastructure in the US (roads, bridges, railways, etc.) will be in better or worse shape ten years from now than it is today? 40% 37% 22% ALL Better shape Worse shape Don't know All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Better shape 40 41 39 47 44 34 37 44 40 37 Worse shape 37 40 35 27 35 43 44 34 39 38 Don’t know 22 18 26 26 21 23 19 21 20 25
  • 91. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 75% think they will own a car in 10 years 91 77% 75% 72% 23% 14% 15%11% 14% Do you currently own a car? In ten years, do you think you will own a car? (If parent) In ten years, do you think all of your children of driving age will choose to own and drive a car? Yes No Don't Know All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you currently own a car? Yes 77 75 79 57 80 84 83 76 86 71 No 23 25 21 43 20 16 17 24 14 29 In ten years, do you think you will own a car? Yes 75 74 77 76 77 80 63 77 79 71 No 14 15 13 16 13 10 20 14 9 18 Don’t know 11 11 11 8 10 10 18 9 12 11 (If parent) In ten years, do you think all of your children of driving age will choose to own and drive a car? * Yes 72 70 73 63 76 72 93 82 71 64 No 15 18 13 20 14 11 0 10 17 18 Don’t know 14 12 15 17 10 17 7 9 13 18 *Reduced base sizes ALL
  • 92. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 45% think they will drive less frequently in 10 years 92 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More frequently 27 28 25 47 36 18 4 28 26 26 Less frequently 45 46 45 25 33 52 79 48 48 41 Don’t know 28 25 30 28 31 31 17 24 26 32 27% 45% 28% ALL More frequently Less frequently Don't know Do you think you will drive more or less frequently in ten years than you do today?
  • 93. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 20% expect to have bought an electric car in 10 years, and 69% expect gas prices to have increased by more than two dollars per gallon 93 20% 69% 47% 14% 33% 17% In ten years, will you have bought an electric car? In ten years, do you think gas prices per gallon will have increased by more than $2? Yes No Don't Know All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I In ten years, will you have bought an electric car? Yes 20 25 16 26 25 18 9 20 20 21 No 47 45 50 50 45 46 50 45 55 43 Don't know 33 30 35 24 30 36 41 35 25 36 In ten years, do you think gas prices per gallon will have increased by more than $2? Yes 69 67 72 66 72 68 72 70 69 69 No 14 18 10 17 12 12 14 11 18 12 Don't know 17 15 19 17 16 20 14 19 13 19 *Reduced base sizes ALL
  • 94. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 47% think airport delays will be longer in 10 years than they are today 94 47% 21% 32% ALL Longer Shorter Don't know In ten years, do you think airline delays will be longer or shorter than they are today? All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Longer 47 47 46 38 48 47 56 49 49 43 Shorter 21 25 18 25 24 18 19 20 22 22 Don't know 32 28 36 37 29 35 25 31 29 35
  • 95. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 25% envision space travel being available to average people in 10 years, and 22% think humans will have encountered life beyond Earth 95 *Reduced base sizes All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I In ten years, do you think commercial space travel will be available to the average person?* Yes 25 27 23 24 29 29 11 21 29 25 No 46 50 43 45 41 41 66 49 46 44 Don't know 29 23 34 32 30 29 23 30 24 31 In ten years, do you think humans will have had encounters with life beyond?* Yes 22 22 22 35 17 22 12 16 19 28 No 49 54 45 39 52 46 68 53 59 39 Don't know 29 24 33 27 32 33 20 31 22 32 25% 46% 29% N=970 Yes No Don't know In ten years, do you think commercial space travel will be available to the average person? 22% 49% 29% N= 970 Yes No Don't know In ten years, do you think humans will have had encounters with life beyond?
  • 96. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 59% think they were healthier 10 years ago, and 43% expect to be healthier 10 years from now 96 59% 43% 24% 31% 17% 26% Ten years ago, were you healthier or less healthy than you are today? In ten years, do you expect to be healthier or less healthy than you are today? Healthier Less healthy Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=970 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years ago, were you healthier or less healthy than you are today?* Healthier 59 56 61 47 56 65 67 61 55 59 Less healthy 24 30 19 32 26 19 21 21 27 24 Don't know 17 14 20 21 18 17 12 18 18 16 In ten years, do you expect to be healthier or less healthy than you are today?* Healthier 43 42 43 61 45 39 22 44 46 39 Less healthy 31 37 26 18 27 33 52 32 26 34 Don't know 26 21 31 21 28 28 26 23 28 27
  • 97. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Almost half expect to weigh less in 10 years 97 32% 19% 50% 49% 17% 31% Ten years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do today? In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you do today? More Less Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=970 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do today?* More 32 32 33 30 34 28 42 34 30 33 Less 50 52 49 54 51 54 36 46 56 50 Don't know 17 16 18 16 15 18 22 20 15 17 In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you do today?* More 19 27 13 28 27 13 6 18 24 17 Less 49 45 54 42 44 54 60 50 48 50 Don't know 31 29 34 31 29 33 34 32 28 33
  • 98. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 56% say they were more active 10 years ago, and 43% expect to be more active in 10 years 98 56% 43% 27% 32% 17% 24% Ten years ago, were you more or less physically active than you are today? In ten years, do you expect to be more or less physically active than you are today? More physically active Less physically active Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=970 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years ago, were you more or less physically active than you are today?* More physically active 56 55 57 54 49 58 67 57 58 55 Less physically active 27 30 24 26 34 24 23 25 30 26 Don't know 17 15 19 21 17 18 10 19 12 19 In ten years, do you expect to be more or less physically active than you are today?* More physically active 43 42 45 61 54 39 9 46 47 38 Less physically active 32 37 28 15 23 35 67 35 29 32 Don't know 24 21 27 24 23 26 24 18 23 30
  • 99. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 42% think there will be cures for some of the deadliest forms of cancer in 10 years 99 Ten years from now, do you think we will have cured some of the deadliest forms of cancer? 42% 37% 21% Yes No Don't Know All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Yes 42 41 43 43 35 48 38 35 38 53 38 40 40 54 43 49 36 No 37 40 34 39 44 32 36 39 42 32 39 42 37 25 38 33 39 Don’t know 21 20 22 18 21 20 26 25 20 15 22 19 23 21 19 18 25 ALL *Reduced base sizes ALL N=970
  • 100. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 36% say they will be reading printed newspapers in 10 years 100 68% 36%28% 46% 3% 18% Do you currently read any newspapers or magazines printed on paper? Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any newspapers or magazines printed on paper? Yes No Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=1031 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you currently read any newspapers or magazines printed on paper?* Yes 68 65 71 55 73 70 74 67 70 67 No 28 31 26 39 22 29 26 30 28 27 Don't know 3 4 3 6 6 2 0 3 2 5 Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any newspapers or magazines printed on paper?* Yes 36 35 37 35 36 34 42 37 41 31 No 46 48 44 49 45 43 51 47 41 50 Don't know 18 17 19 16 19 23 7 16 18 19
  • 101. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 50% say they will be reading printed books in 10 years 101 68% 50% 26% 37% 5% 13% Do you currently read any books printed on paper? Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any books printed on paper? Yes No Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=1031 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you currently read any books printed on paper?* Yes 68 60 77 66 71 68 68 75 66 64 No 26 33 20 25 20 30 32 22 31 27 Don't know 5 8 3 9 9 3 0 3 3 9 Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any books printed on paper?* Yes 50 43 57 51 54 46 50 54 48 48 No 37 44 30 36 34 37 43 35 39 38 Don't know 13 13 13 14 13 16 7 11 13 15
  • 102. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are most likely to say football, basketball, baseball and soccer will be more popular in 10 years 27% 31% 30% 30% 31% 35% 34% 33% 37% 35% 40% 15% 22% 25% 24% 32% 29% 34% 39% 34% 38% 43% 58% 47% 46% 46% 37% 36% 33% 29% 29% 27% 17% Don't know Less popular More popular 102 (Ranked) Ten years from now, do you think each of these sports will be more popular or less popular in the United States than it is today? (Multiple Responses Permitted)
  • 103. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Younger Americans are much more likely to think ultimate fighting and boxing will become more popular 103 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years from now, do you think each of these sports will be more popular or less popular in the United States than it is today? (Multiple Responses Permitted) Football 58/15/27 62/17/21 54/13/33 58/15/27 56/15/29 58/12/29 61/18/21 60/14/26 59/15/26 56/15/29 Baseball 46/25/30 47/31/23 45/19/36 45/27/28 42/27/31 47/21/32 50/26/24 50/21/29 46/24/30 43/28/29 Basketball 47/22/31 51/25/24 44/19/37 55/15/29 43/25/32 45/21/34 47/29/25 50/21/29 47/23/30 45/22/33 Hockey 36/29/35 39/33/28 33/26/41 33/32/35 33/33/34 34/27/39 47/25/28 38/30/32 36/27/37 33/31/36 Soccer 46/24/30 50/28/22 42/21/37 43/30/27 41/28/31 46/21/33 55/19/26 47/22/30 43/25/32 46/26/28 Golf 33/34/34 33/39/29 33/29/38 22/43/35 27/38/35 34/30/36 52/23/26 39/31/31 33/33/33 27/36/37 Tennis 27/38/35 28/43/29 26/33/41 21/47/32 24/40/35 27/33/40 40/31/29 33/34/33 27/36/37 22/42/36 Ultimate fighting 37/32/31 42/34/24 31/30/38 47/24/30 43/27/30 31/35/34 25/46/29 32/37/31 36/32/33 41/28/30 Boxing 29/39/33 31/45/24 27/33/40 39/29/31 35/34/31 23/42/35 17/50/33 28/39/34 27/41/33 31/37/32 Snowboarding 29/34/37 30/40/30 29/28/44 28/35/37 26/38/36 32/29/39 30/34/36 29/32/38 34/29/37 26/38/36 Lacrosse 17/43/40 20/48/33 15/38/47 20/43/36 16/47/37 17/40/43 16/40/44 17/44/39 17/43/40 17/42/41 PERCENTAGES SHOWN BY MORE POPULAR/ LESS POPULAR/ DON’T KNOW
  • 104. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 40% say football concussions will be less of a problem in 10 years, and 37% think that youth football participation will be lower 104 31% 40% 30% Ten years from now, do you think concussions will be a more of a problem or less of a problem in football than they are today? More of a problem Less of a problem Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=970 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years from now, do you think concussions will be a more of a problem or less of a problem in football than they are today?* More of a problem 31 37 25 42 32 27 21 26 29 36 Less of a problem 40 37 42 26 38 45 51 45 44 32 Don't know 30 25 33 33 29 28 28 29 26 32 Ten years from now, do you think participation in youth and high school football will be higher or lower than it is today?* Higher 30 29 31 28 36 26 31 34 28 28 Lower 37 43 32 33 33 44 33 30 41 39 Don't know 33 28 37 39 31 29 36 36 30 33 30% 37% 33% Ten years from now, do you think participation in youth and high school football will be higher or lower than it is today? Higher Lower Don't know
  • 105. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 26% say they will exclusively stream TV shows on demand in 10 years 105 45% 26% 29% ALL N=1031 Live TV service Exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand Don't know In ten years, do you think you will have a live TV service (such as cable or satellite) or will you have canceled your live TV service in favor of exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand (through companies such as Netflix and Amazon)? All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Live TV service 45 46 44 43 44 43 53 49 46 40 Exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand 26 25 28 29 30 21 25 29 28 21 Don't know 29 30 28 27 26 36 21 22 25 38
  • 106. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 27% say they will go to the movies less often in 10 years 106 11% 46% 27% 16% ALL N=970 More frequently Same amount Less frequently Don't know In ten years, do you think you will go to the movies more frequently, less frequently or about the same amount as you do currently? All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I More frequently 11 12 9 15 15 10 1 14 13 7 Same amount 46 45 47 42 48 44 50 47 49 42 Less frequently 27 27 28 18 22 30 43 24 28 30 Don't know 16 16 16 24 15 16 7 15 11 21
  • 107. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 64% think The Simpsons will no longer be on TV in 10 years 107 36% 64% ALL N=1031 Yes No (If Group B) Ten years from now, do you think The Simpsons will still be on TV? All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Yes 36 38 35 51 44 29 22 30 38 41 No 64 62 65 49 56 71 78 70 62 59
  • 108. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are split on whether TV will be better in 10 years 108 35% 37% 45% 37% 19% 26% Ten years ago, Friends and Frasier were broadcasting their final episodes, while shows such as House, Desperate Housewives, Entourage and The Apprentice were debuting. Do you think television is better or worse now than it was in 2004? Do you think television will be better or worse ten years from now than it is today? Better Worse Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=1031 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you think television is better or worse now than it was in 2004?* Better 35 42 29 44 49 28 19 40 27 37 Worse 45 38 53 29 34 52 70 41 59 38 Don't know 19 21 18 27 17 21 11 19 14 24 Do you think television will be better or worse ten years from now than it is today? Better 37 44 30 36 47 32 32 36 38 37 Worse 37 31 44 33 34 38 48 38 39 35 Don't know 26 25 26 32 20 31 20 26 23 28
  • 109. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most, especially women, think the majority of TV shows in 10 years will be Reality TV 109 28% 44% 28% ALL N=1031 Scripted Reality TV Don't know Do you think the majority of TV shows ten years from now will be scripted or reality programs? All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Scripted 28 36 20 41 29 24 19 31 26 27 Reality TV 44 38 49 38 47 44 45 44 45 42 Don't know 28 26 31 21 24 33 35 25 29 31
  • 110. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 54% say they were happier 10 years ago, and 46% expect to be happier in 10 years 110 54% 46% 24% 22%22% 32% Ten years ago, were you happier or less happy than you are today? In ten years, do you expect to be happier or less happy than you are today? Happier Less happy Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=970 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years ago, were you happier or less happy than you are today?* Happier 54 54 53 46 56 58 51 53 54 53 Less happy 24 23 25 27 26 22 21 24 23 25 Don't know 22 22 22 27 19 20 28 22 23 22 In ten years, do you expect to be happier or less happy than you are today?* Happier 46 40 52 48 49 52 26 50 51 40 Less happy 22 29 16 25 21 17 31 17 20 27 Don't know 32 31 33 27 30 32 43 33 30 32
  • 111. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 52% say that their lives were less stressful 10 years ago, 41% expect their lives to be less stressful in 10 years 111 32% 32% 52% 41% 16% 27% Ten years ago, was your day-to-day life more stressful or less stressful than it is today? In ten years, do you expect your day-to-day life will be more stressful or less stressful than it is today? More stressful Less stressful Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL N=970 All Gender Age Political Affiliation M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Ten years ago, was your day-to-day life more stressful or less stressful than it is today?* More stressful 32 36 29 34 29 34 31 31 36 29 Less stressful 52 51 53 48 55 50 58 52 51 53 Don't know 16 14 18 18 16 17 11 16 13 18 In ten years, do you expect your day-to-day life will be more stressful or less stressful than it is today?* More stressful 32 38 28 45 33 24 31 31 32 33 Less stressful 41 39 42 27 42 48 45 43 43 37 Don't know 27 23 30 29 26 28 25 26 24 29
  • 112. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 112 56% think that people will be living longer in 2024 56% 42% 50% 57% 78% 25% 34% 32% 23% 9% 19% 23% 18% 20% 13% All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Longer Shorter Don’t know Ten years from now, do you think people will be living longer or shorter?
  • 113. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 86% say they do not own their own business, and 69% do not expect to do so in 10 years 113 10% 18% 86% 69% 4% 14% Do you currently own your own business? In ten years, do you think you will own your own business? Yes No Don't Know All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you currently own your own business? Yes 10 12 8 10 8 8 14 6 11 17 9 12 11 6 9 11 10 No 86 84 88 86 89 86 83 89 87 81 84 84 86 93 86 88 84 Don’t know 4 4 4 3 2 6 3 6 2 2 7 4 4 1 4 1 6 In ten years, do you think you will own your own business? Yes 18 23 13 21 15 15 21 17 17 20 29 28 10 1 17 16 20 No 69 65 72 65 74 68 68 67 72 69 56 56 74 94 68 76 63 Don’t know 14 12 15 14 11 17 11 16 11 11 15 16 15 4 15 8 17 ALL
  • 114. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 71% say they do not work in an office; among those who do, 57% expect to work in an office in 10 years 114 25% 71% 4% Yes No Don't know Do you currently work in an office? 57%29% 15% Office Remote location Don't know IF CURRENTLY WORK IN OFFICE, ten years from now, do you think you will work in an office or in a remote location, like from home? All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I Do you currently work in an office? Yes 25 27 23 26 25 23 25 8 25 51 19 37 28 6 23 32 20 No 71 69 73 71 73 71 72 86 73 48 75 60 68 93 73 66 74 Don’t know 4 4 4 3 2 6 3 6 2 2 7 4 4 1 4 2 6 IF CURRENTLY WORK IN OFFICE, ten years from now, do you think you will work in an office or in a remote location, like from home? * Office 57 61 51 56 58 51 64 58 58 56 59 63 51 33 65 54 51 Remote location 29 28 29 30 28 34 20 24 23 33 27 27 29 44 23 31 31 Don’t know 15 11 19 14 15 15 15 18 20 11 13 10 19 22 12 15 18 ALL N=491 *Reduced base sizes
  • 115. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are more likely to say they will prefer to live in a suburb or rural area than in a city in 10 years 115 In ten years, do you think you will prefer to live in a city, suburb or rural America? 23% 35% 33% 9% City Suburb Rural area Don't know In 2024 In ten years, do you think you will prefer to live in a city, suburb or rural America? All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I City 23 28 19 17 19 27 27 23 23 22 31 25 18 21 29 17 23 Suburb 35 37 33 46 35 29 35 28 34 46 33 34 35 39 35 40 32 Rural area 33 26 39 28 39 35 26 35 37 27 22 34 36 36 28 37 33 Don’t know 9 9 9 9 7 9 12 14 6 4 14 7 10 4 8 6 12 ALL
  • 116. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 58% do not think they will be in their current jobs in 10 years 116 18% 25% 58% 46% 23% 29% In ten years, do you think you will be in your current job? Do you think you will be laid off at some point in the next ten years? Yes No Don't Know All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I In ten years, do you think you will be in your current job?* Yes 18 22 16 15 15 24 16 8 20 28 16 24 18 13 16 28 13 No 58 59 57 56 56 55 66 59 59 61 54 54 55 76 62 55 57 Don’t know 23 19 27 30 28 21 18 32 22 11 30 22 26 10 22 16 29 Do you think you will be laid off at some point in the next ten years? * Yes 25 30 20 29 26 26 20 25 24 25 33 27 23 16 23 27 26 No 46 43 49 45 47 47 45 38 50 57 31 47 47 69 50 49 42 Don’t know 29 27 30 26 26 27 35 37 26 17 37 26 31 15 27 24 32 All N=970 *Reduced base sizes
  • 117. The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 53% of those who are employed do not expect to be working for the same company in 10 years 117 26% 41% 53% 35% 21% 24% IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will still be working at the same company where you currently work? IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will be working in the same career field as you currently do? Yes No Don't Know All Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation M F NE MW S W <35K 35K- 75K >75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will still be working at the same company where you currently work?* Yes 26 28 24 20 26 28 27 16 27 31 25 25 28 19 23 34 21 No 53 56 51 59 51 53 52 57 49 55 59 50 51 77 58 49 54 Don’t know 21 16 25 20 23 20 21 27 24 13 16 25 21 4 19 17 25 IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will be working in the same career field as you currently do?* Yes 41 47 36 38 40 45 41 27 44 50 50 40 41 26 40 48 37 No 35 33 36 41 38 30 34 42 30 35 30 35 34 58 37 30 36 Don’t know 24 20 28 21 22 25 26 31 26 16 20 26 25 16 23 22 26 IF EMPLOYED N=479 *Reduced base sizes