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Boost your marketing strategy - Green Energy futures

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Presentation from Business Link's 'Boost your marketing strategy' event at Center Parcs Longleat Forest on 2nd March 2011. Dr. Jeff Kenna's (Camco) presentation looks at green energy futures and how …

Presentation from Business Link's 'Boost your marketing strategy' event at Center Parcs Longleat Forest on 2nd March 2011. Dr. Jeff Kenna's (Camco) presentation looks at green energy futures and how businesses can make the most of current and up and coming opportunities.

Published in: Business, Technology

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Transcript

  • 1. March 2011
    Green Energy Futures
    Jeff Kenna
  • 2. A changing world ....
  • 3. The Greatest Market Failure?
  • 4. Beware of group thinking
    Don’t
    • Short Term
    • 5. Group Think
    • 6. Wrong Measures
    Do
    • Long Term
    • 7. Independent
    • 8. Sustainable
  • Seizing opportunities
  • 9. A Tale of Two Strategies
    • Hummer – 346 gms C02/km
    • 10. General Motors in Liquidation
    • 11. Leaf – 0 gms C02/km
    • 12. Nissan in profit
  • What needs to happen: 2 tonnes per person by 2050
    2050 Target
  • 13. How can we get there?
    Fuel mix in a transition to low carbon society
  • 14. UK: The Energy Challenge Ahead
    • Decommissioning of nuclear power stations
    • 15. Closure of coal power stations – Large Combustion Plan Directive
    • 16. Rising oil and gas prices
    • 17. Political instability in oil & gas rich countries
    • 18. Lack of investment in energy infrastructure
    • 19. Climate change and sustainability
    • 20. Rising energy demand
  • Consequences
    • Need to decarbonise our energy system
    • 21. Increasing electricity prices – Minimum 25% real increase by 2020
    • 22. Massive investment - £200bn by 2020
    • 23. Large scale energy efficiency improvements
    • 24. 12% of energy to be local by 2050
    • 25. Large scale expansion in renewable energy
  • UK in Europe
    European renewable energy targets – actual versus target
  • 26. Policy and Legislation
    • Kyoto Protocol
    • 27. European Union 20/20/20 Legislation
    • 28. UK Climate Change Act
    • 29. 80% cut in CO2 by 2050
    • 30. Feed in tariffs
    • 31. Renewables Heat Incentive
    • 32. Carbon Neutral Homes from 2016
    • 33. 15% energy from renewables by 2020 (30% electricity; 12% hear; 10% transport)
    • 34. Green Deal; Green Investment Bank
  • Feed in Tariff scheme overview
    The Government has used powers in the Energy Act 2008 to introduce feed-in tariffs to incentivise low-carbon electricity generation (up to 5 MW)
    Scheme went live on 1st April 2010
    • Payments to generators will comprise two parts:
    • 35. Generation tariff
    • 36. Payment made for every kWh generated & metered
    • 37. Export tariff
    • 38. Payment made for every kWh exported to the grid
    • 39. Payments will be made by electricity suppliers to generators.
    • 40. Large suppliers are designated mandatory suppliers, and have to participate by law.
    • 41. Small suppliers may participate if they wish
    • 42. Maximum capacity for the scheme is 5 megawatts (5 MW)
    • 43. Eligible low-carbon electricity technologies are – solar PV, new Anaerobic Digestion, hydro, wind, micro Combined Heat & Power
    • 44. The scheme will result in higher costs, that will be passed through to electricity users in form of higher bills...
  • A new paradigm: timing is important
  • 45. Solar Photovoltaics
  • 46. Solar Energy – Some Facts
    Area needed to meet UK annual electricity from PV
    • Solar energy falling on a household roof is 4x the energy it uses
    • 47. PV costs have come down 35% in the past 4 years
    • 48. Germany has 7.5 GW of pv – supplying 1.2% of national electricity
    • 49. From 2016 new houses in UK will be zero carbon
    • 50. Feed in tariff makes solar pv financially viable in the UK
  • Some German PV Facts
    • Industry turnover €10bn
    • 51. No of businesses: 10,000
    • 52. No of jobs: 53,000
    • 53. Export Earnings: €6bn/yr
    • 54. Installed Cost €4000/kW
    • 55. Market growth 2001-2008: 80% per year
    10 MW solar farm in Bavaria
  • 56. Solar radiation in Germany and UK
  • 57. The UK Opportunity
    • Assume follow German growth rate at half capacity
    • 58. Would meet 3.2% UK electricity by 2020
    • 59. Market of £10bn/year
    • 60. 250,000 new houses per year = 1000 MW of pv/year
  • Market Factors
  • PV Performance
    Output depends on:
    • Solar radiation
    • 65. Temperature
    1 kW array will give approx 850 kWh/year in UK
    10% annual variations
  • 66. Costs and Finance
    10 kW Small Business System
    Cost: £32,000
    FIT: £3,100
    On site: £800
    Export £5
    Total £3,905 (12%)
    100 kW Large Business System
    Cost: £300,000
    FIT: £27,000
    On site: £4,500
    Export £2,000
    O&M £3,000
    Total £30,500 (10%)
  • Planning
    • Household systems are permitted developments unless conservation zone or AONB or listed buildings
    • 72. But still a grey area for planners
    • 73. Commercial systems will need planning permission
    • 74. Will need some pioneers to test the water
  • Grid Connection
    • Less than 3.6 kW no permission
    • 75. Smaller than 100 kW should be no problem
    • 76. MW size can connect to 11 kV network
    • 77. Will need grid connection study
  • Commercial Issues
    • Different business models
    • 78. Performance Guarantees
    • 79. Raising Debt
    • 80. Offsetting risk
    • 81. Ownership and roof renting
    • 82. Track record and skills of contractors
    • 83. O&M
  • Community Energy Companies
    One vote per investor
    Minimum £500; Maximum £20,000
    Tax relief on investment (20%)
    Elected Board of Directors
    Invests in each spv
    Other investors
  • 84. Producing your own energy: The Benefits
    • An investment opportunity
    • 85. 8-10% inflation proof
    • 86. Long term & better than banks
    • 87. Positions your company
    • 88. Value add to local community
    • 89. Supports global and national targets
    • 90. Secures low cost electricity; hedge against price rises
  • Ban Ki-Moon Speech to World Business Leaders
    We meet at a critical moment in human history….
    Climate change is the defining challenge of our time. I also believe it is the most potent game-changer for business over the next century. It is an opportunity we must seize.
    I want to challenge you. I want to see you in the vanguard of an unprecedented effort to retool the global economy into one that is cleaner, greener and more sustainable.
    This will not be easy. Fundamental change never is. But, if we get it right, we can reasonably look forward to sustained growth and prosperity.
    If we get it wrong we face catastrophic damage
    to people, to the planet
    – and to the global marketplace.
  • 91. Camco is an international leader in identifying opportunities and providing solutions to carbon risk.