Gpg 2012 Post Election
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Gpg 2012 Post Election

on

  • 205 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
205
Views on SlideShare
201
Embed Views
4

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0

1 Embed 4

http://glover-park.pagodabox.com 4

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Gpg 2012 Post Election Gpg 2012 Post Election Presentation Transcript

  • ELECTION 2012Post-Election Analysis
  • ELECTION OVERVIEW  Landscape: Lead-Up To The Election  Presidential Results: What happened?  Presidential Results: How did it happen?  Congressional Results: What happened?  Looking Ahead: What does this mean going forward? 1
  • TAKEAWAYS  Race was trending toward Obama leading in to Election Day  Growing economic optimism  Improving job approval numbers  Obama maintained 2008 coalition  Youth, Latino, African-American, Women (especially unmarried women) all turned out and supported Obama  Coalition supplemented by Midwest support cemented by auto-bailout 2
  • TAKEAWAYS  Organization won  Romney spent more on ads in all but one swing state  But Obama had more than twice as many field offices in each swing state  It was a very close election/ we are still largely an evenly divided country  Partisan Primaries cost Republicans  Moves perceptions of the party to the right, alienating key segments of voters  Costs Republicans winnable Senate seats for 2nd cycle in a row 3
  • LANDSCAPELead-Up To The Election
  • OBAMA JUMPED AHEAD OF ROMNEY IN CLOSING DAYS As of November 6, 2012: OBAMA 48.6% ROMNEY 47.6% Debates Hurricane Sandy Romney Secures nomination Conventions 5Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
  • PREDICTION MARKET CONSISTENTLY FAVORED OBAMA Barack Obama As of Mitt Romney November 6, 68.4% 31.4% 2012 6Source: InTrade
  • STARTING IN AUGUST, AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 60% 49% 50% 49% 50% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% Getting 38% 38% better 39% 40% 36% 34% 32% 30% 30% 33% 30% 30% 32% Staying 28% 30% 34% the Same 28% 28% 27% Getting 20% 24% 23% 22% 24% 24% 25% worse 18% 10% 14% 0% 7Source: CBS News Poll, October 17-20, 2012
  • NUMBER WHO THOUGHT COUNTRY WAS ON THE WRONGTRACK TRENDED DOWN LEADING INTO THE ELECTION A Look Back Nov 2008 Source: NBC News/WSJ % As of November 6, 2012 Wrong Track 76 Right Direction 11 WRONG TRACK 52.8% October 2004 Source: NBC News/WSJ % Wrong Track 47 Right Direction 41 October 2000 Source: NBC News/WSJ % Wrong Track 32 Right Direction 48 Nov 1996 Source: NBC News/WSJ % Wrong Track 40 Right Direction 41 RIGHT DIRECTION 41.5% October 1992 Source: NBC News/WSJ % Wrong Track 69Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data Right Direction 16 8
  • JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election Presidential Job Approval January March June October 2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% 50% 2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50% 1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58% 1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33% 1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58% 1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32% 1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32% 1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59% 1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74% President’s in red lost re-election 9Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPED AS ELECTION APPROACHED, VARIED WIDELY IN SWING STATES 12.0 Unemployment State Rate (Sept 2012) 10.0 9.9 9.8 10.0 9.5 9.0 9.0 National 7.8% 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.9 11.8% 8.0 Nevada 7.8 North Carolina 9.6% 6.0 8.7% Florida 4.0 Colorado 8% Wisconsin 7.3% 2.0 7% Ohio 0.0 Virginia 5.9% Jul Jul Jan Jul July Jan Apr Jan Apr Apr Jan Apr Oct Oct Oct Oct New Hampshire 5.7% Iowa 5.2% 2009 2010 2011 2012 10Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jan 2009 – October 2012
  • ECONOMIC CONCERNS DRIVE ELECTORAL AGENDA What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? 40% 36% 37% PROBLEM % 35% 32% 31% 31% 31% 32% 31% 31% 31% 32% The economy 37 29% 30% Unemployment 26 31% 30% 26% 30% 25% 28% 29% 25% 26% 26% 26% Federal budget deficit 12 25% 25% 23% 20% 16% 15% 16% 22% 14% 15% Dissatisfaction with 13% 13% 13% 12% 9 15% 12% 13% 12% 12% gov’t 10% Health care 7 12% 11% 11% 9% 10% 9% 5% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7% 7% Lack of money 5 6% Education 4 0% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Foreign aid/Focus 4 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 overseas Ethical/moral/family Unemployment Economy 4 decline Dissatisfaction with govt Federal Budget Deficit Results <4% not shown 11Source: Gallup Poll, October 15-16, 2012
  • OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL TRENDED UP AS RACE ENTERED THE HOME STRETCH APPROVE Nov 3-5 DISAPPROVE Each result is based on a three-day rolling average 12Source: Gallup Poll Daily Tracking
  • PRESIDENTIAL RESULTSWhat Happened?
  • A RECAP OF THE 2008 ELECTION Obama McCain 365 173 11 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 OR 7 10 MN NH 4 3 10 31 MA 3 17 12 5 4 7 21 RI 1 4 55 5 21 11 20 CO 9 5 13 CT NJ 6 11 8KY 7 15 11 15 NC MD DE 10 NM 5 7 6 10 3 8 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 15 3 34 9 27 4 14
  • 2012 ELECTION RESULTS – OBAMA ONLY LOSESTWO STATES FROM 2008 MAP Obama 332 Romney 206 Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 OR 7 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 12 6 5 6 20 RI 4 55 6 20 11 18 CO 9 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 15 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 NM 7 6 10 3 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Obama currently ahead in Florida, 15 still counting absentee ballots
  • PRESIDENTIAL RESULTSHow Did It Happen?
  • “THE ECONOMY” WAS #1 ISSUE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORED ROMNEY, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR THE WIN Economy 59% (+4R) Federal Health 15% 18% (+51D) Budget (+34R) Care 5% Deficit Foreign Policy (+23D) 17Source: 2012 Exit Polls
  • BUT A DEEPER DIVE ON ECONOMIC MEASURES SHOWS ROMNEY ONLY OUTPERFORMS ON TAXES Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you? 38% 37% 14% 8% Unemployment Rising Prices Taxes Housing Market +10D Tie +34R +31D 18Source: 2012 Exit Polls
  • FEW ARE SEEING PROGRESS FINANCIALLY, BUSH STILLBLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS Compared to four years ago, is your familys financial situation: Total Obama Romney Obama wins among those who Better today 25% 84% 15% believe things are Worse today 33% 18% 80% the same from four years ago. About the same 41% 58% 40% Who is more to blame for current economic problems? Voters still blame Total Obama Romney George Bush for current economic Barack Obama 38% 5% 94% problems. George W. Bush 53% 85% 12% 19Source: CNN and MSNBC exit polls
  • ROMNEY WINS ON NEARLY ALL TRAITS, YET OBAMA STILL WON ELECTION Total Spread Has a vision for the future 29% +9R Shares my values 27% +13R Cares about people like me 21% +63D Is a strong leader 18% +23R 20Source: 2012 Exit Polls
  • PRESIDENT OBAMA’S SUPPORT OF THE AUTO BAILOUT HELPED HIM IN CRITICAL SWING STATES How do you feel about the federal governments aid to U.S. automakers? Michigan Wisconsin Ohio 62% 53% 60% Approve Approve Approve +53D +59D +48D 21Source: 2012 Exit Polls
  • WHITE VOTE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS % OF ELECTORATE % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 White 77% 74% 72% Hispanic vote Black 12% 13% 13% growing Hispanic/Latino 8% 8% 10% Spread 2004 2008 2012 And trending toward Obama White +17R +12R +20R Black +77D +91D +87D Hispanic/Latino +9D +36D +44D 22Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls
  • LATINO TURNOUT UP TWO POINTS, SUPPORT FOR OBAMA STRENGTHENS FROM 2008 % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 National 8 9 10 Colorado 8 13 11 Florida 15 14 16 The Latino vote grew, Nevada 10 15 19 especially in Florida North Carolina 1 3 4 and Nevada Ohio 3 4 3 Virginia 3 5 5 Wisconsin 2 3 4 Spread 2004 2008 2012 National +9D +36D +44D Colorado +38D +23D +49D Florida +12R +15D +22D Obama’s margins Nevada +21D +54D +45D increased – especially in North Carolina - - +31D Florida and Colorado Ohio +30D - +16 D Virginia - +31D +32 D Wisconsin +4D - +37D 23Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls
  • SHIFT AWAY FROM OBAMA AMONG ALL AGE GROUPS EXCEPT 30-44 YEAR OLDS % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 18-29 17 18 19 30-44 29 29 27 45-64 30 37 38 65+ 24 16 16 Spread 2004 2008 2012 18-29 +9D +34D +23D 30-44 +7R +6D +7D 45-64 +3R +1D +4R 65+ +8R +8R +12R 24Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls
  • GENDER DIVIDE WIDENS TO 18 POINTS FROM 12 IN 2008 +13D +11D +3D +1D Men Women +7R +11 R 2004 2008 2012 25Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls
  • PARTISAN DIVIDE REMAINS STEADY FROM 2008 2004 2008 2012 Democrat 38% 39% 38% Independent 26% 29% 29% Republican 38% 32% 32% Party Split Even D+7 D+6 26Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls
  • ROMNEY HAD CLEAR ADVANTAGE IN ADVERTISING… Romney Swing State Advertising Spending Advantage +$108.2 million Barack Obama Mitt Romney Total Spending: $389.3 million Total Spending: $497.5 million Campaign Spending: $333.4 million Campaign Spending: $196.4 million PAC Spending: $64.2 million PAC Spending: $301.0 million OBAMA ROMNEY Overall $ millions Outside Outside Spending Campaign Total Campaign Total Spending Spending Advantage Colorado $29.8 $9.1 $38.3 $17.0 $24.5 $41.5 $3.1 Florida $66.7 $11.1 $77.7 $44.0 $60.3 $104.3 $26.6 Iowa $24.6 $4.0 $28.6 $16.5 $26.1 $42.6 $14.0 Nevada $22.2 $3.7 $25.8 $12.2 $20.2 $32.4 $6.6 New Hampshire $21.4 $.05 $21.5 $5.5 $11.9 $17.4 $4.2 North Carolina $24.2 $0 $24.2 $17.1 $28.1 $45.2 $21.0 Ohio $72.8 $18.9 $91.7 $43.2 $57.4 $100.6 $8.9 Virginia $52.9 $13.8 $66.8 $33.2 $49.3 $82.5 $15.7 Wisconsin $11.2 $3.6 $14.7 $7.7 $23.3 $31.0 $16.3 27Source: National Journal
  • …BUT OBAMA’S GROUND GAME ADVANTAGE WAS STAGGERING AND CRITICAL TO HIS SUCCESS Swing State Field Offices Obama Field Offices Obama Romney Obama Advantage Colorado 62 13 +49 596 Florida Iowa Nevada New 104 67 26 47 13 11 +57 +54 +15 22 8 +14 Hampshire Romney Field Offices North 54 23 +31 Carolina 205 Ohio 131 39 +92 Virginia 61 28 +33 Wisconsin 69 23 +46 28Source: Obama and Romney Websites
  • OBAMA’S VOTER CONTACT EFFORTS GREATLY EXCEEDED ROMNEY’S AND MAY HAVE PERSUADED LATE DECIDERS When did you finally decide for whom to Obama vote in the presidential election? Campaign made % Spread 125 million Just today 3 +7D personal contacts* In the last few days 6 +5D Romney In October 11 +1D Campaign made 50 million In September 9 +8R personal contacts** Before that 69 +7D 29 *Since the last election **Since the springSource: Obama and Romney Campaigns
  • CONGRESSIONAL RESULTSWhat Happened?
  • SENATE: PRE-ELECTION – RACES IN PLAY Democrats: 53 Republicans: 47 OR MN CO KY NC NM GA AK 31Source: CNN
  • SENATE: POST-ELECTION – DEMS GAIN TWO SEATS King (D/I): 53.0% Democrats: 55 (+2) Republicans: 45 (-2) Summers (R): 30.6% Dill (D): 13.1% Warren(D): 53.7% Brown (R-i): 46.3% OR MN NH Donelly (D): 49.9% Mourdock (R): 44.4% CO Fischer(R): 58.2% KY Kerrey (D): 41.8% NC NM GA AK 32Source: CNN
  • HOUSE OVERVIEW: NO MAJOR SHIFTS, POSSIBLE DEM PICKUP AS TEN RACES REMAIN UNDECIDED 2010 Democrats Republicans Pre-Election 256 179 Gains / Losses -64 +64 Results 192 (44%) 243 (56%) 2012 Democrats Republicans Pre-Election 193 242 Results 192 233 10 Races Remain Undecided 33Source: CNN
  • LOOKING AHEADWhat Does This Mean Going Forward?
  • HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS 2010 Health Care Law Obama Romney EXPAND IT OR LEAVE IT AS IS (44%) 87% 11% Expand it (26%) 92% 5% Leave It As Is (18%) 80% 19% REPEAL SOME OF IT OR ALL OF IT (49%) 15% 83% Repeal some of it (24%) 27% 72% Repeal all of it (25%) 3% 93% 35Source: 2012 Exit Polls
  • HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Income Taxes Obama Romney Increase For All (13%) 52% 44% Increase Only On Income Over $250K 70% 29% (47%) Not Increase Them For 23% 75% Anyone (35%) Obama Romney U.S. Favors the Wealthy (55%) 71% 26% Economic System Is Fair to Most Americans (39%) 22% 77% 36Source: 2012 Exit Polls
  • HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Immigration Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be: Obama Romney Offered a chance to apply for legal 61% 37% status (65%) Deported to the country they came 24% 73% from (28%) 37Source: 2012 Exit Polls
  • HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS View of Government 2004 2008 2012 Government should do 46% 51% 43% more to solve problems Government is doing too many things better left to 49% 43% 51% businesses and individuals 38Source: 2012 Exit Polls
  • GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverseaudiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques touncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) 39
  • APPENDIX
  • 2007-2008 OBAMA vs. MCCAIN HEAD TO HEAD 41
  • DOW JONES Over The Past Year November 6, 2012 13,245.68 November 7, 2011 October 5, 2012 12,068.39 13,610.15 November 25, 2011 11,257.55 42Source: Google Finance
  • DOW JONES Since Late January 2009 November 6, 2012 13,245.68 January 16, 2009 October 5, 2012 8,281.22 13,610.15 March 6, 2011 6,626.94 43Source: Google Finance
  • YOUTH VOTE WAS KEY TO OBAMA’S WINNING STRATEGY % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 National 17 18 19 Colorado 15 14 16 Florida 17 15 15 Iowa 17 17 15 Nevada 16 17 17 New Hampshire 16 18 19 North Carolina 14 18 15 Ohio 21 17 17 Virginia 17 21 19 Wisconsin 20 21 21 Spread 2004 2008 2012 National +9D +34D +23D Colorado +4 D - - Florida +17 D +24D +35D Iowa +7 D +25D +16D Nevada +14 D +36D +38D New Hampshire +14 D +24D +30D North Carolina +13 D +48D +36D Ohio +14 D +25D +29D Virginia +8 D +21D +25D Wisconsin +16 D +29D +24D 44Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls
  • AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTE OVERWHELMINGLY TO SUPPORT OBAMA, TURNOUT UP IN OHIO % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 National 11 13 13 Florida 12 13 13 Nevada 7 10 9 North Carolina 26 23 23 Ohio 10 11 15 Virginia 21 20 20 Wisconsin 5 5 7 Spread 2004 2008 2012 National +77D +91D +87D Florida +73D +92D +91D Nevada +73D +89D +82D North Carolina +71D +90D +92D Ohio +68D +95D +92D Virginia +75D +84D +87D Wisconsin +72D +82D +88D 45Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls
  • INDEPENDENTS SHIFTED TOWARD ROMNEY, BUT THE SHIFT WAS NOT LARGE ENOUGH % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 National 26 29 29 Colorado 33 39 38 Florida 23 29 33 Iowa 30 33 34 Nevada 26 32 34 New Hampshire 44 45 43 North Carolina 21 27 28 Ohio 25 30 31 Virginia 26 27 29 Wisconsin 27 29 32 Spread 2004 2008 2012 National +1D +8D +5R Colorado +7D +10D +7R Florida +16D +7D +1R Iowa +8D +15D +14D Nevada +12D +13D +8R New Hampshire +14D +20D +7D North Carolina +15R +21R +10R Ohio +19D +8D +10R Virginia +10R +1D +10R Wisconsin +8D +19D +2D 46Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls
  • SENIORS VOTED MORE GOP AND TURNED OUT IN SIMILAR NUMBERS TO 2008, BUT THERE WERE SOME TURNOUT CHANGES WITHIN SWING STATES % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 National 16 16 16 Colorado 24 13 17 Florida 27 22 25 Iowa 28 18 26 Nevada 25 15 18 New Hampshire 20 14 15 North Carolina 22 16 22 Ohio 20 17 18 Virginia 19 11 14 Wisconsin 21 14 17 Spread 2004 2008 2012 National +5R +8R +11R Colorado +13R +9R +14R Florida +3R +8R +19R Iowa +3D +1D Tie Nevada Tie +13R +13R New Hampshire +5D +13D +11D North Carolina +11R +13R +24R Ohio +17R +11R +11R Virginia +2D + 7R +7R Wisconsin +8D Tie +5R 47Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls
  • WHITE TURNOUT DOWN, SUPPORT FOR REPUBLICAN UP % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 National 77 74 72 Colorado 86 81 81 Florida 70 71 67 Iowa 96 91 93 Nevada 77 69 64 New Hampshire 95 94 93 North Carolina 71 72 70 Ohio 86 83 79 Virginia 72 70 70 Wisconsin 90 89 86 Spread 2004 2008 2012 National +17R +12R +20R Colorado +15R +2D +11R Florida +15R +14R +27R Iowa +1R +4D +4D Nevada +12R +8R +13R New Hampshire +1D +10D +5D North Carolina +46R +29R +32R Ohio +12R +6R +15R Virginia +36R +21R +23R Wisconsin +5R +9D +4R 48Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls