2. Your webinar hosts from BKV…
Dave Mundo Raphael Rivilla
VP, Analytics Director SVP, Chief Digital Officer
Marketing Analytics Over 15 years in Media
practitioner for Strategy and Optimization
16+ years
2
3. BKV at a glance…
Founded in 1981
• Full-service direct and interactive agency
• Full-time staff of 130
Billings of $150 million
• B2B and B2C experience
• Launched mobile division in 2009
Two offices
• Atlanta
• Kansas City
3
4. BKV offers a full suite of
Analytics solutions
Marketing
Mix Analysis
Scientific Predictive
Attribution Modeling
Loyalty Clickpath
Analytics Analysis
4
6. What is Scientific
Does it work? Getting started
Attribution? Attribution
• Defining attribution
• Traditional attribution models
• What are marketers using?
6
7. Continued growth in digital marketing spend
is spurring interest in ROI measurement
U.S Online Ad Spend (in billions)*
$62
$60 $58
$53
$50 $47
$40
$40
$32
$30
$20
$10
$-
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
----------------------------Estimated ----------------------------
7 *Source: eMarketer, Jan 2012
8. Diversification of channels is a major
trend in digital marketing
U.S Online Ad Spend by Channel (in billions)
Search Banner Ads Classifieds/Directories Video Rich Media Other
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
----------------------------Estimated ----------------------------
8
9. Attribution assigns credit for
conversions
Brand
Email Ad
Affiliate
Lays foundation
Keyword
Search
for digital media
ROI measurement
Non- Network
Brand Banner
Keyword
Search
Optimizes
Social
Media Ad Budget
Increases
ROI
Conversion
9
10. Current approaches to attribution rely
on the marketer to assign credit
100% credit
First - Click Attribution
100% credit
Last - Click Attribution
25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit
Shared Credit Attribution
10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit
Recency - Based Attribution
10
11. Which attribution method do webinar
attendees use?
Which attribution method do you use?
Not Sure/Other
None
First Click/Last Click
Custom Rules/Shared Credit
Algorithmic/Scientific
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
11
12. Most digital marketers are using “traditional”
attribution – or no attribution at all!
IAB Poll*: which attribution method do you use?
None 44%
First or Last
30%
Click
Shared Credit 17%
Recency-
17%
Based
Algorithmic /
11%
Scientific
Other 1%
12 *Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau – Digital Attribution Comes of Age
13. What is Scientific
Does it work? Getting started
Attribution? Attribution
• Why do we need it?
• How does it work?
• How is it implemented?
13
14. Current approaches to attribution rely
on the marketer to assign credit
First - Click Attribution 100% credit
Ignores Everything After
First Click
Last - Click Attribution 100% credit
Everything Is Ignored
Except Last Click
Shared Credit Attribution 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit
Arbitrary Constants
Used Throughout
Recency - Based Attribution 10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit
Lacks Reasoning and
Extremely Subjective
14
15. Our understanding of channel-level
performance is distorted by current attribution
Display Media
• Primarily an assist media
Display
Display
• Generates very few clicks
Search
Paid Search
• Primarily a converter
Conversion
• Generates many clicks
15
16. Advanced attribution approaches need to
address limitations of traditional methods
Traditional Advanced Solution
Uses Utilize all Ad Server data
incomplete view available data logs
& click data
Requires Rely on data
Statistical
marketer to drive
Analysis
bias results
Maintain Integrate
Easy to
implementation findings with
implement
ease media buying
16
17. Recent advances are enabling scientific
attribution for advertisers and agencies
Demand for more precise
online ad spend ROI
Availability of
granular data Scientific
Attribution
Vendors
Advanced modeling
techniques
17
18. Independent studies confirm the rising
tide of scientific attribution
Forrester: Q2 2012 Interactive IAB: Digital Attribution Comes
Attribution Vendors Of Age
“Last click still survives but we “Benefits for digital marketers
see accelerating momentum to include[…]improved
cast it aside and implement multichannel
interactive attribution” measurement, data-driven
spending and strategy
“Since 2009…the market has decisions, and media buying
gained momentum” leverage”
“Algorithmic attribution [is] “44% of interactive marketers
helping value marketing don’t have processes in place
efforts, identify and eliminate to assign credit to their
waste, and optimize media efforts, indicating that adoption
plans…to boost ROI” of attribution has room to grow”
18
19. Scientific Attribution delivers on the
promise of full funnel measurement
Rich
Email Display
Media
Display Search Social
Search Display Search
Purchase Purchase Purchase
All touch points are accounted for – credit for purchases can
be appropriately assigned
19
20. A scientific approach to attribution
yields better results
Advertising • BKV manages millions in online ad spend each year
• We understand the challenges of online media
expertise optimization
Customized
• Dedicated Analytics team builds custom models to
statistical understand true value of media channels
approach
Unbiased • No prior assumptions are made
• Results reflect the impact of each channel on
results purchases
20
21. A statistical model unearths relationships
between a set of factors and a response
Moderate Strong
Predictor Predictor
User Display Search Purchase?
A Yes Yes Yes
B Yes No No
C No Yes Yes
D No No No
E Yes Yes Yes
21
22. Scientific Attribution also incorporates non-media
factors that play a role in purchase behavior
Landing page
Seasonal Industry
effects changes
Media
channels
Geographical
Competition
location
Time of day/
Day of week
22
23. Understanding (and potentially controlling)
non-media factors helps boost optimization
Landing • Determine which landing pages drive
conversions
Page • Optimize and test based on results
Seasonal • Key understanding of advertiser’s business
• Develop a seasonally-adjusted media
Effects strategy
• Discover which states respond to different
Geography channels/messages
• Increase geo-targeting efficiency
23
24. Scientific attribution should be continuously
improved through collaboration
Data Analytics + Database
collection
Media/Client Client/media
Attribution
Services/ team
Modeling
Analytics
feedback
Analytics
Media Performance Channel Analytics + Media
reporting optimization
24
26. What is Scientific
Does it work? Getting started
Attribution? Attribution
26
27. BKV’s integrated approach to attribution
proved useful for a major Telecom client
Goal: increase media efficiency and
identify valuable “assist” keywords
Solution: scientific attribution
model, focusing on ease of
implementation
Result: more efficient media buys
27
28. BKV’s integrated approach to attribution
proved useful for a major Telecom client
1 2 3
• Implement
• Discuss objectives • Build custom
Scientific
and goals with model for client
Attribution
client
• Extensive testing
• Report on
• Collect/process process to verify
findings over
appropriate data model findings
several weeks to
gauge impact
• Determine most • Create actionable
appropriate recommendations
• Initiate
modeling structure based on modeling
refinements for
& approach results
future iterations
28
29. Scientific Attribution delivered tangible
results upon implementation
Scientific Attribution
implementation results
2% daily 22% daily 16% cost per
spend orders sale
increase increase decrease
29
30. Scientific Attribution will continue to
grow and evolve
Understanding mobile
marketing ROI
Determining the value of
social media presence
30
31. What is Scientific
Does it work? Getting started
Attribution? Attribution
31
32. Utilize customized attribution solutions
to meet your specific needs
You want… You might consider…
To understand your online
funnel and determine your ClickPath Analysis
attribution needs
To efficiently allocate budget
across online media Scientific Attribution
A comprehensive tool for
allocating marketing dollars Scientific Attribution /
(offline/online) Marketing Mix Analysis
32
33. Scientific Attribution success relies
advance planning
Verify that all your online marketing is being tracked
1 and that cookie-level data is available
Identify a partner for statistical modeling – with
2 extensive media optimization and analytics experience
Create a detailed plan for implementation, including a
3 process for continual improvement
33
34. Scientific Attribution is a crucial
component of an online media strategy
Traditional methods Scientific attribution
fall short not biased accurate
Industry-wide move Case studies show
to better attribution strong results
34
35. Thank you!
For questions and inquiries, please contact:
• Raphael Rivilla, Chief Digital Officer
raphael.rivilla@bkv.com
• Dave Mundo, VP Analytics
dave.mundo@bkv.com
• Rina Cook, Director of Business Development
rina.cook@bkv.com
35
Editor's Notes
Welcome to BKV’s webinar, Scientific Attribution: Maximizing Digital ROI. Please use the GoToMeeting chat/Q&A features if you are having video/audio problems and we will work to resolve any issues.At any point during the webinar, feel free to submit a question via GoTo Meeting or Twitter by using the hashtag #SciAttribution and we will answer them at the conclusion of the presentation.
Introduction: each panelist introduces himself and explains his role as well as his involvement with marketing analytics and media optimization.
RAFQuick overview of BKV and what we do. Talk about the fact that we are full service and can plan complete digital and offline campaigns. Maybe mention some of our clients and the work we do for them.
Aside from being a full-service media agency, BKV’s Analytics team offers a full suite of marketing analytics solutions focused on both online and offline media. We work with clients to determine how their online/offline media drives their sales/conversions.
First we will discuss the concept of digital media attribution and why it is important for advertisers and marketers to understand it and get it right.Then we will explain a data-driven, scientific approach that ultimately results in efficient investment allocation across all digital media touchpoints.We will follow that with a recent case study for a telecom advertiser to show how we implemented Scientific Attribution and how it benefitted our client.Finally, we will discuss the best practices for getting started with advanced, scientific attribution. This is meant for advertisers who want to use this powerful approach to execute digital media as efficiently as possible.
With that, let’s get started…our goal in this first section is to define attribution and review commonly-used traditional attribution approaches.
Why do advertisers need to understand digital media? One reason is its steady historical and projected growth.As more marketing dollars shift to digital, there is a growing need amongst marketers to obtain accurate ROI for their digital investments, especially when it comes to budget optimizations.For years marketers have analyzed data and conducted research to measure the impact of offline media. Digital media needs that same attention.
Digital marketers are increasingly spreading their budgets out across different online media channels in an effort to reach their audience.As a consequence, marketers now need to be able to compare effectiveness between different channels, even though they may work differently and have different objectives.Next, let’s explore how these different online media types fit into the sales funnel and what that means for attribution.
To measure ROI in digital marketing, we need to focus on the process of attribution. In other words, how do we attribute or assign credit to an individual digital media channel for a conversion or a purchase? A conversion or purchase could mean an online purchase, a lead, a lead or donation for a non-profit, etc.Intuitively, we all understand that attribution has a huge impact on marketing decisions. The media tactic that receives the credit for the most sales is likely going to have a high ROI, which means that we’re likely to continue allocating marketing dollars towards that tactic in the future. As we optimize digital media budgets, we will benefit from an improved digital ROI.Next, we’ll look at how most digital marketers are currently handling attribution.
Let’s look at current commonly-used attribution models.(Start animation and explain each model.)Looking at the current approaches to attribution, we’ll notice right away that they all have one thing in common: they rely on marketers to decidehow credit for sales is distributed. In the agency world, the last-click attribution method is probably the most popular, and has been the cornerstone of ROI measurement since the inception of digital marketing.
Attribution methods are beginning to gain traction, with a small % of respondents opting for advanced, scientific approaches.
Now let’s explore Scientific Attribution, and understand why marketers need it, how it works, and how to execute it.
Let’s look at current commonly-used attribution models.(Start animation and explain each model.)Looking at the current approaches to attribution, we’ll notice right away that they all have one thing in common: they rely on marketers to decidehow credit for sales is distributed. In the agency world, the last-click attribution method is probably the most popular, and has been the cornerstone of ROI measurement since the inception of digital marketing.
Current attribution models can easily bias results towards “bottom of the funnel” digital media channels. For example, Display generates few clicks and tends to get shortchanged in many attribution approaches. Paid Search acts as a converter and in some cases may benefit from the a priori biases inherent in traditional attribution techniques.The same can be said for other digital media touchpoints (SEO, affiliates, etc.). Quite simply, traditional approaches can lead to subpar optimization and digital media ROI.
Besides media agencies getting serious about scientific media attribution, many vendors dedicated to advanced attribution have surfaced. Therefore, there are numerous options and approaches for advertisers searching to “solve” digital attribution.
Advanced scientific attribution (aka algorithmic attribution) is gaining increased traction in the industry, as we’ve seen from both the influx of scientific attribution practitioners and industry research reinforcing its importance.Forrester recently published a report on the state of scientific attribution as well as highlighting a sample of vendors in this space.The Interactive Ad Bureau similarly released a study underscoring the importance and likely growth of advanced attribution techniques.
Historically the impact of “top of the funnel” digital media interactions has been an unknown. Scientific Attribution, however, delivers on the promise of measuring the impact of all media touch points and assigning credit appropriately.
We have identified factors that we feel are important when tackling attribution.Digital media expertise is crucial was attacking scientific attribution in order to ensure the results are actionable and any budget reallocations are realistic based on advertisers’ other initiatives.Work with a nimble vendor who can create custom analyses based on your business environment and your unique complexities.
We realize talk of “statistics” often frightens people away and leaves them uttering the term “black box”. This thinking greatly underestimates marketers, as many are able to understand even complex data analyses and statistics.Scientific attribution modeling is actually not very difficult to understand.(explain slide)Now envision this for millions of user interactions and dozens of predictors. With a dataset so large, simply eyeballing relationships as we have done here is virtually impossible. Therefore, we use statistical techniques to help identify which predictors are the most important.
I mention “dozens of predictors”…this is because we are using digital media execution as a possible predictor or purchase, as well as non-media factors.
Scientific attribution is a continually evolving process that requires regular modeling refreshes that correspond to a business’ changing landscape and competitive environment.
RAFRaf to discuss traditional ranker approach and how this changes things—will review the chart above.I will also discuss the importance of creating a site and keyword classification system in order to set appropriate weights—treating SEM differently than endemic site buys, and networks differentlyAs a media person, this opens the doors for us to start buying and evaluating engagement tactics apart from more DR tacticsThe trick to making this successful is also ensuring open communication with your network and site partners—share the data, make it part of the RFP process—tell them that they will be evaluated using attribution and that together, you will work together to establish appropriate credit and payout using data.