Scientific Attribution: Maximizing Digital ROI


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  • Welcome to BKV’s webinar, Scientific Attribution: Maximizing Digital ROI. Please use the GoToMeeting chat/Q&A features if you are having video/audio problems and we will work to resolve any issues.At any point during the webinar, feel free to submit a question via GoTo Meeting or Twitter by using the hashtag #SciAttribution and we will answer them at the conclusion of the presentation.
  • Introduction: each panelist introduces himself and explains his role as well as his involvement with marketing analytics and media optimization.
  • RAFQuick overview of BKV and what we do. Talk about the fact that we are full service and can plan complete digital and offline campaigns. Maybe mention some of our clients and the work we do for them.
  • Aside from being a full-service media agency, BKV’s Analytics team offers a full suite of marketing analytics solutions focused on both online and offline media. We work with clients to determine how their online/offline media drives their sales/conversions.
  • First we will discuss the concept of digital media attribution and why it is important for advertisers and marketers to understand it and get it right.Then we will explain a data-driven, scientific approach that ultimately results in efficient investment allocation across all digital media touchpoints.We will follow that with a recent case study for a telecom advertiser to show how we implemented Scientific Attribution and how it benefitted our client.Finally, we will discuss the best practices for getting started with advanced, scientific attribution. This is meant for advertisers who want to use this powerful approach to execute digital media as efficiently as possible.
  • With that, let’s get started…our goal in this first section is to define attribution and review commonly-used traditional attribution approaches.
  • Why do advertisers need to understand digital media? One reason is its steady historical and projected growth.As more marketing dollars shift to digital, there is a growing need amongst marketers to obtain accurate ROI for their digital investments, especially when it comes to budget optimizations.For years marketers have analyzed data and conducted research to measure the impact of offline media. Digital media needs that same attention.
  • Digital marketers are increasingly spreading their budgets out across different online media channels in an effort to reach their audience.As a consequence, marketers now need to be able to compare effectiveness between different channels, even though they may work differently and have different objectives.Next, let’s explore how these different online media types fit into the sales funnel and what that means for attribution.
  • To measure ROI in digital marketing, we need to focus on the process of attribution. In other words, how do we attribute or assign credit to an individual digital media channel for a conversion or a purchase? A conversion or purchase could mean an online purchase, a lead, a lead or donation for a non-profit, etc.Intuitively, we all understand that attribution has a huge impact on marketing decisions. The media tactic that receives the credit for the most sales is likely going to have a high ROI, which means that we’re likely to continue allocating marketing dollars towards that tactic in the future. As we optimize digital media budgets, we will benefit from an improved digital ROI.Next, we’ll look at how most digital marketers are currently handling attribution.
  • Let’s look at current commonly-used attribution models.(Start animation and explain each model.)Looking at the current approaches to attribution, we’ll notice right away that they all have one thing in common: they rely on marketers to decidehow credit for sales is distributed. In the agency world, the last-click attribution method is probably the most popular, and has been the cornerstone of ROI measurement since the inception of digital marketing.
  • Attribution methods are beginning to gain traction, with a small % of respondents opting for advanced, scientific approaches.
  • Now let’s explore Scientific Attribution, and understand why marketers need it, how it works, and how to execute it.
  • Let’s look at current commonly-used attribution models.(Start animation and explain each model.)Looking at the current approaches to attribution, we’ll notice right away that they all have one thing in common: they rely on marketers to decidehow credit for sales is distributed. In the agency world, the last-click attribution method is probably the most popular, and has been the cornerstone of ROI measurement since the inception of digital marketing.
  • Current attribution models can easily bias results towards “bottom of the funnel” digital media channels. For example, Display generates few clicks and tends to get shortchanged in many attribution approaches. Paid Search acts as a converter and in some cases may benefit from the a priori biases inherent in traditional attribution techniques.The same can be said for other digital media touchpoints (SEO, affiliates, etc.). Quite simply, traditional approaches can lead to subpar optimization and digital media ROI.
  • Besides media agencies getting serious about scientific media attribution, many vendors dedicated to advanced attribution have surfaced. Therefore, there are numerous options and approaches for advertisers searching to “solve” digital attribution.
  • Advanced scientific attribution (aka algorithmic attribution) is gaining increased traction in the industry, as we’ve seen from both the influx of scientific attribution practitioners and industry research reinforcing its importance.Forrester recently published a report on the state of scientific attribution as well as highlighting a sample of vendors in this space.The Interactive Ad Bureau similarly released a study underscoring the importance and likely growth of advanced attribution techniques.
  • Historically the impact of “top of the funnel” digital media interactions has been an unknown. Scientific Attribution, however, delivers on the promise of measuring the impact of all media touch points and assigning credit appropriately.
  • We have identified factors that we feel are important when tackling attribution.Digital media expertise is crucial was attacking scientific attribution in order to ensure the results are actionable and any budget reallocations are realistic based on advertisers’ other initiatives.Work with a nimble vendor who can create custom analyses based on your business environment and your unique complexities.
  • We realize talk of “statistics” often frightens people away and leaves them uttering the term “black box”. This thinking greatly underestimates marketers, as many are able to understand even complex data analyses and statistics.Scientific attribution modeling is actually not very difficult to understand.(explain slide)Now envision this for millions of user interactions and dozens of predictors. With a dataset so large, simply eyeballing relationships as we have done here is virtually impossible. Therefore, we use statistical techniques to help identify which predictors are the most important.
  • I mention “dozens of predictors”…this is because we are using digital media execution as a possible predictor or purchase, as well as non-media factors.
  • Scientific attribution is a continually evolving process that requires regular modeling refreshes that correspond to a business’ changing landscape and competitive environment.
  • RAFRaf to discuss traditional ranker approach and how this changes things—will review the chart above.I will also discuss the importance of creating a site and keyword classification system in order to set appropriate weights—treating SEM differently than endemic site buys, and networks differentlyAs a media person, this opens the doors for us to start buying and evaluating engagement tactics apart from more DR tacticsThe trick to making this successful is also ensuring open communication with your network and site partners—share the data, make it part of the RFP process—tell them that they will be evaluated using attribution and that together, you will work together to establish appropriate credit and payout using data.
  • RAF
  • RAF #1, Dave #2-#3
  • Scientific Attribution: Maximizing Digital ROI

    1. 1. Scientific Attribution: Maximizing Digital ROI July 26th, 2012 #SciAttribution1
    2. 2. Your webinar hosts from BKV… Dave Mundo Raphael Rivilla VP, Analytics Director SVP, Chief Digital Officer Marketing Analytics Over 15 years in Media practitioner for Strategy and Optimization 16+ years2
    3. 3. BKV at a glance… Founded in 1981 • Full-service direct and interactive agency • Full-time staff of 130 Billings of $150 million • B2B and B2C experience • Launched mobile division in 2009 Two offices • Atlanta • Kansas City3
    4. 4. BKV offers a full suite of Analytics solutions Marketing Mix Analysis Scientific Predictive Attribution Modeling Loyalty Clickpath Analytics Analysis4
    5. 5. Scientific Attribution Agenda What is Scientific Does it work? Getting started Attribution? Attribution5
    6. 6. What is Scientific Does it work? Getting started Attribution? Attribution • Defining attribution • Traditional attribution models • What are marketers using?6
    7. 7. Continued growth in digital marketing spend is spurring interest in ROI measurement U.S Online Ad Spend (in billions)* $62 $60 $58 $53 $50 $47 $40 $40 $32 $30 $20 $10 $- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ----------------------------Estimated ----------------------------7 *Source: eMarketer, Jan 2012
    8. 8. Diversification of channels is a major trend in digital marketing U.S Online Ad Spend by Channel (in billions) Search Banner Ads Classifieds/Directories Video Rich Media Other $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ----------------------------Estimated ----------------------------8
    9. 9. Attribution assigns credit for conversions Brand Email Ad Affiliate Lays foundation Keyword Search for digital media ROI measurement Non- Network Brand Banner Keyword Search Optimizes Social Media Ad Budget Increases ROI Conversion9
    10. 10. Current approaches to attribution rely on the marketer to assign credit 100% credit First - Click Attribution 100% credit Last - Click Attribution 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit Shared Credit Attribution 10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit Recency - Based Attribution10
    11. 11. Which attribution method do webinar attendees use? Which attribution method do you use? Not Sure/Other None First Click/Last Click Custom Rules/Shared Credit Algorithmic/Scientific 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%11
    12. 12. Most digital marketers are using “traditional” attribution – or no attribution at all! IAB Poll*: which attribution method do you use? None 44% First or Last 30% Click Shared Credit 17% Recency- 17% Based Algorithmic / 11% Scientific Other 1%12 *Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau – Digital Attribution Comes of Age
    13. 13. What is Scientific Does it work? Getting started Attribution? Attribution • Why do we need it? • How does it work? • How is it implemented?13
    14. 14. Current approaches to attribution rely on the marketer to assign credit First - Click Attribution 100% credit Ignores Everything After First Click Last - Click Attribution 100% credit Everything Is Ignored Except Last Click Shared Credit Attribution 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit Arbitrary Constants Used Throughout Recency - Based Attribution 10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit Lacks Reasoning and Extremely Subjective14
    15. 15. Our understanding of channel-levelperformance is distorted by current attribution Display Media • Primarily an assist media Display Display • Generates very few clicks Search Paid Search • Primarily a converter Conversion • Generates many clicks15
    16. 16. Advanced attribution approaches need to address limitations of traditional methods Traditional Advanced Solution Uses Utilize all Ad Server data incomplete view available data logs & click data Requires Rely on data Statistical marketer to drive Analysis bias results Maintain Integrate Easy to implementation findings with implement ease media buying16
    17. 17. Recent advances are enabling scientific attribution for advertisers and agencies Demand for more precise online ad spend ROI Availability of granular data Scientific Attribution Vendors Advanced modeling techniques17
    18. 18. Independent studies confirm the rising tide of scientific attribution Forrester: Q2 2012 Interactive IAB: Digital Attribution Comes Attribution Vendors Of Age “Last click still survives but we “Benefits for digital marketers see accelerating momentum to include[…]improved cast it aside and implement multichannel interactive attribution” measurement, data-driven spending and strategy “Since 2009…the market has decisions, and media buying gained momentum” leverage” “Algorithmic attribution [is] “44% of interactive marketers helping value marketing don’t have processes in place efforts, identify and eliminate to assign credit to their waste, and optimize media efforts, indicating that adoption plans…to boost ROI” of attribution has room to grow”18
    19. 19. Scientific Attribution delivers on the promise of full funnel measurement Rich Email Display Media Display Search Social Search Display Search Purchase Purchase Purchase All touch points are accounted for – credit for purchases can be appropriately assigned19
    20. 20. A scientific approach to attribution yields better results Advertising • BKV manages millions in online ad spend each year • We understand the challenges of online media expertise optimization Customized • Dedicated Analytics team builds custom models to statistical understand true value of media channels approach Unbiased • No prior assumptions are made • Results reflect the impact of each channel on results purchases20
    21. 21. A statistical model unearths relationships between a set of factors and a response Moderate Strong Predictor Predictor User Display Search Purchase? A Yes Yes Yes B Yes No No C No Yes Yes D No No No E Yes Yes Yes21
    22. 22. Scientific Attribution also incorporates non-media factors that play a role in purchase behavior Landing page Seasonal Industry effects changes Media channels Geographical Competition location Time of day/ Day of week22
    23. 23. Understanding (and potentially controlling) non-media factors helps boost optimization Landing • Determine which landing pages drive conversions Page • Optimize and test based on results Seasonal • Key understanding of advertiser’s business • Develop a seasonally-adjusted media Effects strategy • Discover which states respond to different Geography channels/messages • Increase geo-targeting efficiency23
    24. 24. Scientific attribution should be continuously improved through collaboration Data Analytics + Database collection Media/Client Client/media Attribution Services/ team Modeling Analytics feedback Analytics Media Performance Channel Analytics + Media reporting optimization24
    25. 25. Ease of use is critical for a successful implementation Media Channel Last-click CPS Scientific Attribution CPS Change Search #1 Brand $24 $29 -21% Search #1 Non-Brand $58 $36 38% + budget Search #2 Brand $22 $23 -5% Search #2 Non-Brand $48 $29 40% + budget Network 1 $87 $94 -8% - budget Network 2 $105 $76 28% Network 3 $65 $43 34% Network 4 $41 $25 39%25
    26. 26. What is Scientific Does it work? Getting started Attribution? Attribution26
    27. 27. BKV’s integrated approach to attribution proved useful for a major Telecom client Goal: increase media efficiency and identify valuable “assist” keywords Solution: scientific attribution model, focusing on ease of implementation Result: more efficient media buys27
    28. 28. BKV’s integrated approach to attribution proved useful for a major Telecom client 1 2 3 • Implement • Discuss objectives • Build custom Scientific and goals with model for client Attribution client • Extensive testing • Report on • Collect/process process to verify findings over appropriate data model findings several weeks to gauge impact • Determine most • Create actionable appropriate recommendations • Initiate modeling structure based on modeling refinements for & approach results future iterations28
    29. 29. Scientific Attribution delivered tangible results upon implementation Scientific Attribution implementation results 2% daily 22% daily 16% cost per spend orders sale increase increase decrease29
    30. 30. Scientific Attribution will continue to grow and evolve Understanding mobile marketing ROI Determining the value of social media presence30
    31. 31. What is Scientific Does it work? Getting started Attribution? Attribution31
    32. 32. Utilize customized attribution solutions to meet your specific needs You want… You might consider… To understand your online funnel and determine your ClickPath Analysis attribution needs To efficiently allocate budget across online media Scientific Attribution A comprehensive tool for allocating marketing dollars Scientific Attribution / (offline/online) Marketing Mix Analysis32
    33. 33. Scientific Attribution success relies advance planning Verify that all your online marketing is being tracked 1 and that cookie-level data is available Identify a partner for statistical modeling – with 2 extensive media optimization and analytics experience Create a detailed plan for implementation, including a 3 process for continual improvement33
    34. 34. Scientific Attribution is a crucial component of an online media strategy Traditional methods Scientific attribution fall short not biased accurate Industry-wide move Case studies show to better attribution strong results34
    35. 35. Thank you! For questions and inquiries, please contact: • Raphael Rivilla, Chief Digital Officer • Dave Mundo, VP Analytics • Rina Cook, Director of Business Development rina.cook@bkv.com35