Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
BIA/Kelsey 2014 Picks and Predictions
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

BIA/Kelsey 2014 Picks and Predictions

463

Published on

Every January, BIA/Kelsey issues its “Picks and Predictions” for the year ahead, offering our best guess of what the year will bring in local, social, mobile, directional, vertical and video …

Every January, BIA/Kelsey issues its “Picks and Predictions” for the year ahead, offering our best guess of what the year will bring in local, social, mobile, directional, vertical and video advertising and promotions.

This year’s predictions cover a wide range of hot button local media topics, from native advertising and media attribution to TV everywhere and the influence of social content on search.

Published in: Marketing, Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
463
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
16
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. BIA/Kelsey’s 2014 Picks & Predictions January 2014
  • 2. Executive Summary  Every January, BIA/Kelsey issues its “Picks and Predictions” for the year ahead, offering our best guess of what the year will bring in local, social, mobile, directional, vertical and video advertising and promotions.  This year’s predictions cover a wide range of hot button local media topics, from native advertising and media attribution to TV everywhere and the influence of social content on search.  BIA/Kelsey analysts will present highlights of their 2014 predictions on a January 23 webinar. 2 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 3. Industry Analysts with Keen Insights MARK FRATRIK JED WILLIAMS VP, Research & Chief Economist VP Consulting & Sr. Analyst, Social RICK DUCEY Managing Director PETER KRASILOVSKY CHARLES LAUGHLIN VP Conferences, Sr. Analyst, Loyalty & Transactions SVP & Managing Editor CELINE MATTHIESSEN VP, Insights & Analytics MICHAEL BOLAND SUZANNE ACKLEY VP Content & Sr. Analyst, Mobile Senior Research Analyst STEVE MARSHALL Director, Research GEOFF PRICE VP, Valuations & Financial Consulting ABID CHAUDHRY Sr. Director, Industry Strategy & Insight JEANNE DIXON DATILLO Sr. Analyst, Media Valuations REBECCA WEINGARTNER Associate Analyst MESHACH CISERO Associate Analyst 3 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 4. Quick Take: Our 2014 Predictions No. 1: The New Era of Non-Advertising? No. 2: Native Advertising Achieves Local Scale No. 3: Attribution Boon for Transaction Marketing No. 4: Digital Agencies Go Mainstream No. 5: Big Data Drives Local Discovery No. 6: The Sharing Economy Spawns Verticals No. 7: Local SERPs Get a SoLo Makeover No. 8: National Retailers Go Local No. 9: TV vs. Social No. 10: RIP PYP No. 11: ‘SMBs’ Are Redefined No. 12: Local-Digital Media Investment Soars No. 13: Developers Shift to SMB-Facing Apps No. 14: TV Everywhere Drives Video Innovation No. 15: YPs Go on Verticals Acquisition Binge 4 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 5. No. 1: The New Era of Non-Advertising? “In 2014, we believe BIA/Kelsey survey research (Local Commerce Monitor™ and Consumer Commerce Monitor™) will demonstrate a clear move by SMBs away from purchased media (both print and online) to other forms of customer outreach and engagement, notably social media and transaction marketing.” STEPHEN MARSHALL Research Director © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved. 5
  • 6. No. 2: Native Advertising Achieves Local Scale “After a year of intense buzz and heavy experimentation, native advertising will begin to live up to its immense potential in 2014 by achieving scale at the local level. The challenge will be to divide native inventory between direct sales efforts and exchanges. Smaller advertisers will need help understanding the ROI that native advertising can deliver as part of larger content marketing initiatives.” JED WILLIAMS VP Consulting & Senior Analyst, Social Media 6 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 7. No. 2: Native Advertising Achieves Local Scale U.S. Social Display vs. Native Ad Spend: 2012-2017 Forecast Social Display Social Native $14 $12 2012-2016 CAGRs: US$ Billions $10 $5.0 $4.4 $8 $3.7 Social Display CAGR 18.3% $3.1 $6 $2.4 $4 Social Native CAGR 29.6% $1.4 $4.3 $2 Total Social CAGR 22.4% $4.9 $5.5 $6.1 $6.8 $2.9 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Note: Numbers are rounded. 7 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 8. No. 3: Attribution Boon for Transaction Marketing “One of the biggest problems for local marketers is proving attribution – especially as users effortlessly move from a banquet of ‘spreadable media’ – everything from articles to email to social media posts to YouTube. It is another reason we expect to see big things from transactional and loyalty media in 2014 – the receipts say it all.” PETER KRASILOVSKY VP & Senior Analyst, Transactions and Loyalty 8 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 9. No. 4: Digital Agencies Go Mainstream “The digital agency business model will go mainstream in 2014, with offline media seeking incremental growth from digital. Cross-media attribution will become a much bigger issue as a natural outcome of the digital agencies’ growing presence in the market.” RICK DUCEY Managing Director & Senior Analyst, Video 9 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 10. No. 5: Big Data Drives Local Discovery “Big data will continue to collide with mobile in 2014 and inspire app layer innovation in the form of personalized local discovery tools like Google Now. Push alerts will engage users outside of apps, and swipe-able card-based interfaces will replace the traditional SERP within apps. We see this already in local discovery (weotta, Google Now), social (Tinder), and multimedia (Swell). This same data-driven content delivery ‘push’ won’t just apply to apps but also to more relevant and effective ad delivery.” MICHAEL BOLAND VP Content & Senior Analyst, Mobile 10 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 11. No. 6: The Sharing Economy Spawns Verticals “One of the big local breakthroughs has been the development of shared listing sites for apartments (Airbnb), vacation rentals (BRBO) and rides (Uber). In 2014, we expect shared listings to become more ubiquitous, with multiple entries per vertical, plus the addition of many more verticals.” PETER KRASILOVSKY VP & Sr. Analyst, Transactions & Loyalty 11 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 12. No. 7: Local SERPs Get a SoLo Makeover “This year, search engine results pages will get a makeover as search engines and now social platforms (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) leverage social data points within search results. This will reverberate across the PPC/SEO spaces, as well as among companies that work within mobile.” ABID CHAUDHRY Sr. Director, Industry Strategy & Insight 12 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 13. No. 8: National Retailers Go Local “Retailers will increasingly look beyond their own inventory and customer base this year to become buyer hubs that also incorporate local sellers. Amazon has been signaling this trend in recent years, with online stores, comparison shopping, product inventory and product listing ads bringing new revenue streams. The rise of social media is accelerating this sea change. One example of this trend: QVC’s December 2012 acquisition of social classifieds platform Oodle.” PETER KRASILOVSKY VP & Sr. Analyst, Transactions & Loyalty 13 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 14. No. 9: TV vs. Social “Social media platforms will more aggressively grab ad dollars from television, with the introduction of video ads and the acquisitions of partner tools like Facebook’s Sport Stream. Another example – Twitter’s deal with Nielsen to produce Twitter TV ratings.” MESHACH CISERO Associate Analyst 14 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 15. No. 10: RIP PYP “In 2014, we anticipate more exits or substantial pullbacks from the print business by major global directory organizations. Print may continue to drive substantial leads and margin at many organizations, but the argument is shifting to whether publishers can justify the costs associated with print. In 2014, the Nordic publisher Eniro will complete its phase out of print Yellow Pages, and the markets have rewarded the company for thoughtfully transforming itself into a true post-print publisher.” CHARLES LAUGHLIN SVP & Senior Analyst, Directional Media © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved. 15
  • 16. No. 11: ‘SMBs’ Are Redefined “As digital local media advertising and marketing become omni-channel integrated platforms, we will see a push to redefine the core base of customers. In 2014, we will see more breakouts of ‘SMB’ into multiple subcategories – including ‘VSBs’ (sub 20 employees), ‘MBs’ and ‘brand networks’ to cover multi-location businesses. Much of this activity will be caused by the shift from performance advertising to ‘engagement marketing.’ Other factors include metrics-driven sales and varying price/cost models.” ABID CHAUDHRY Sr. Director, Industry Strategy & Insight 16 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 17. No. 12: Local-Digital Media Investment Soars “The past year saw a moderate increase in total M&A deals (private placements & acquisitions), but a sharp rise in reported deal value (+65%). This surge in deal value will continue in 2014. We expect 20% to 30% growth in deal value this year, propelled by a few key sectors: vertical commerce marketplaces; integrated customer relationship and data management platforms; mobile advertising platforms tied to native programmatic buying; and niche consumerfacing social networks catering to mobile millennials.” JED WILLIAMS VP Consulting & Senior Analyst, Social Media 17 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 18. No. 12: Local-Digital Media Investment Soars JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 2012 Deal Value Deal Volume 2013 % Change 571.8 941.13 65% 19 12 Online in Focus: CRM / Scheduling -37% 18 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 19. No. 13: Developers Shift to SMB-Facing Apps “The local space’s love affair with consumer-based mobile apps will give way to more attention to business-facing mobile apps that help SMBs acquire new business and run their business on the go. This will include lots of operational tools like appointment scheduling and payment processing and other back office tools that can be accessed and managed in a mobile interface. The sweet spot is categories like restaurants and home services where proprietors are in constant motion.” MICHAEL BOLAND VP Content & Senior Analyst, Mobile 19 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 20. No. 13: Developers Shift to SMB-Facing Apps 20 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 21. No. 14: TV Everywhere Drives Video Innovation “In 2014, TV broadcasters will extend their value propositions cross-screen. This will further validate the online and mobile video categories and drive innovations and standard setting in cross-screen measurement, buying and analytics.” RICK DUCEY Managing Director & Senior Analyst, Video © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved. 21
  • 22. No. 15: YPs Go on Verticals Acquisition Binge “As directory publishers hasten their retreat from print, they need to accelerate growth in their digital properties, with growth in higher margin owned media preferred over the lower margins associated with reseller products. We expect acquisition of vertical content around key local business categories will be a key priority for global directory organizations healthy enough for acquisition activity.” CHARLES LAUGHLIN SVP & Senior Analyst, Directional Media © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved. 22
  • 23. A Look Back at Our 2013 Predictions No. 1: U.S. Mobile Ad Revenues Top $4 Billion No. 2: SMB Services Occupy the Cloud No. 3: Rep Management Meets Content Distribution No. 4: Big Banks Bet on Offers and Loyalty No. 5: Amazon + Apple + Facebook + Google = Acquisition Frenzy No. 6: National Retailers Go Local No. 7: Double-Digit Bump for Online Video Spend No. 8: Native Ads Come into Focus No. 9: Finally, Props for Social Advertising No. 10: Local Sellers Innovate Around the Long Tail 23 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 24. Our 2013 Predictions Report Card 2013 Prediction U.S. Mobile Ad Revenues Top $4 Billion SMB Services Occupy the Cloud Rep Management Meets Content Distribution Big Banks Bet on Offers and Loyalty Grade Comment A Based on the estimates we have seen, we appear to have hit the mark on this prediction. Total 2013 mobile ad revenue will very likely exceed $4 billion. B There is clear momentum towards the cloud and SaaS products for SMB, but there wasn’t as much movement in 2013 as we expected – due to the notoriously slow adoption of SMBs. A- Last year, presence, reputation and content platforms converged in two complementary dimensions: discovery & engagement. The bigger tectonic shift is the foundational role that content now occupies in the advertising/marketing ecosystem. B Banks’ interest in offers and loyalty turned out to be a mixed bag. While, we saw major banks rollout significant transaction marketing programs, the efforts weren’t always high priorities for the banks, which placed their bets in other, safer areas. 24 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 25. Our 2013 Predictions Report Card 2013 Prediction Amazon + Apple + Facebook + Google = Acquisition Frenzy National Retailers Go Local Double-Digit Bump for Online Video Spend Grade Comment B Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google each made small acquisitions in 2013, some of which touched on local, such as mapping and payments. However, “frenzy” was too strong of a word. A After years of nonchalance towards local marketing, national retailers (and brands) ramped up geo-targeting efforts significantly in 2013 as improved technology and marketing programs really leveraged the local opportunity. A+ BIA/Kelsey’s Consumer Commerce Monitor™ showed that 15.4% of consumers regularly use online video for locally purchased products or services. And our Local Commerce Monitor™ survey of SMBs shows more than 40% of SMBs use video for advertising and promotion and these companies spend more than 2X non-video advertisers. Moreover, 55% of this group plans to increase their ad spend in 2014. 25 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 26. Our 2013 Predictions Report Card 2013 Prediction Finally, Props for Social Advertising Native Ads Come into Focus Local Sellers Innovate Around the Long Tail Grade Comment A Social moved beyond novelty and into an integrated advertising mix that drives engagement and transactions with measurable ROI. We’ve gone from “what’s the value of a Facebook like?” to dashboard friendly analytics showing return on spend. Industry players have developed better platforms and metrics around social as part of an integrated, cross-channel media mix. A Native advertising concepts came into focus for publishers and channels of all shapes & sizes, driven by innovation on social networks, extending to pioneering publishers (BuzzFeed, Forbes, ShareThrough) and beginning to find traction with local media. C+ Traditional media companies were active in the past year in reorganizing their sales forces to focus increasingly on expanding digital growth, with new products targeting new customer categories. There was less focus than expected on the long tail. 26 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
  • 27. QUESTIONS & COMMENTS: CHARLES LAUGHLIN claughlin@biakelsey.com (312) 502-9414 © 2014 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved. This published material is for internal client use only. It may not be duplicated or distributed in any manner not permitted by contract. Any unauthorized distribution could result in termination of the client relationship, fines and other civil or criminal penalties under federal law. BIA/Kelsey disclaims all warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein and similarly disclaims any liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages that may result from the use or interpretation of this information.

×