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External headwinds dragged down growth in Q3 especially through trade channels from the Euro zone. The more open economies such as Korea and Taiwan have been hit relatively hard, while Mexico, ASEAN and Andeans countries outperform.
• Domestic demand remained resilient in Asia and Latin America on supportive policies, job creation and bank lending, while it softened in Turkey and Russia.
• The outlook for Q4 has improved on bold actions by the ECB and the Fed and more sensitive policies to structural concerns in China, India and Brazil. Recent short-term activity indicators and confidence surveys signal that the slowdown has already or is about to bottom out.
• However, despite a decline in risks to the global economy, there remain a number of concerns that have the potential to derail growth forecasts. The crisis is not over in the Euro zone, the US fiscal cliff has yet to be resolved, and geopolitical tensions are on the rise (Asia and Middle East).
• Policy makers are generally in a cautious mode, with most countries choosing to retain room for further stimulus. Meanwhile, central banks are again in the midst of managing intense capital flows. The ECB and the Fed actions have led to significant sovereign risk tightening and appreciating pressures.
• Price pressures are not a major concern at the moment in Asia, except for India, while inflation rates are above or in the upper half of central banks’ target band in Latin America, Russia and Turkey. Supply shocks have moderated but remain relevant in food and oil markets.
• Beyond cyclical factors, fundamentals remain strong and ratings convergence play with developed countries is still happening. Sovereign ratings were upgraded for Korea and Turkey (Fitch to investment grade) among the EAGLEs. The Philippines and Nigeria were also upgraded within the Nest group.