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This annual report not only revises, for the fourth consecutive year, our classification of key emerging economies, but also improves on the EAGLEs methodology to achieve that goal. First, we incorporate virtually all emerging countries in the analysis (including frontier ones). Second, we use a more accurate definition of what is a developed market. Third, our benchmark for a country to be in the Nest group of the EAGLEs is now more stable.
After rethinking the EAGLEs concept and estimating potential growth for all of those countries, 7 countries remain being EAGLEs, namely China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey and Mexico (Korea and Taiwan are upgraded to developed economies). All EAGLEs outperform the G6 average threshold of contributing USD490bn to global growth in the next ten years. EAGLEs and Nest countries are expected to contribute 65% of global growth in the next ten years, led by China (30%) and India (11%), while the G7 group will add 19%.
Factors behind portfolio flows in emerging markets.
Updating our projections for the middle classes.
Are EAGLEs and Nest countries ready for income transition?
Trends in South-South trade and global value chains