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A slow global recovery with downward risks. The economic
cycle is improving in advanced economies, although it is still
far from being a strong recovery.
• In Chile growth has shown clear signs of slowdown. We
estimate GDP growth at 4.2% for 2013 and 4.0% for 2014.
• Inflation has been affected by the sudden drop in oil prices.
We correct downwards our inflation forecast for 2013 to 2.2%.
In 2014 inflation will end below 3%.
• The Central Bank will gradually cut the reference rate to
4.0% by the second half of 2014.
• Government expenditure will not rise more than 3.2% in
real terms in 2014 in a scenario of a structural deficit of 1%
of GDP and compliance with the official forecasts in 2013.
• The main risk is associated with a slowdown of the Chinese economy, with the resulting impact over copper prices.