The slow recovery in the eurozone continues, thanks to favourable economic policies and an improvement in the financial environment.
Global growth will continue to drive exports, although these are less biased towards emerging economies.
Internal demand is showing signs of recovery, and the peripheral countries have started to grow.
The AQR and stress test on the banking system together with single supervision in 2014 should help reduce financial fragmentation.
The ECB maintains a cautious stance on the recovery, and appears to be prepared to take action to prevent deflation, which we in any case view as very unlikely.