The third eye….
(or what happens when n=millions)

How digital media and behavioural data might finally provide
us with a ...
All models are wrong,
but some of them are
useful.
All models are
wrong, but some of
them are dangerous.
The sweet spot

Technology

Psychology

Economics
How it should work.
How economists* pretend it works

* Business executives and civil servants are more guilty than economists in this respect
“Thus, the conventional
view that natural selection
favors nervous systems
which produce ever more
accurate images of the
...
Heuristics

"I

sn’t more information always better? In economics, Nobel
prizes are regularly awarded for work that assume...
David Rock's SCARF model

•
•
•
•
•

Status
Certainty
Autonomy
Relatedness
Fairness
Reading List
Kahneman - Thinking Fast & Slow
Kurzban - Why Everyone (Else) is a Hypocrite
Seabright - The Company of Stran...
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group
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Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group

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Much of the so-called accepted wisdom in B2B marketing is outdated, wrong, or even downright dangerous - behavioural economics champion, Spectator columnist and author of 'Wiki Man' Rory Sutherland will explain why many key elements of B2B marketing communications need to be re-examined or completely rethought. Expect to be stimulated, challenged and amused in equal measure.

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Transcript of "Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group"

  1. 1. The third eye…. (or what happens when n=millions) How digital media and behavioural data might finally provide us with a robust way of understanding human behaviour. @rorysutherland
  2. 2. All models are wrong, but some of them are useful.
  3. 3. All models are wrong, but some of them are dangerous.
  4. 4. The sweet spot Technology Psychology Economics
  5. 5. How it should work.
  6. 6. How economists* pretend it works * Business executives and civil servants are more guilty than economists in this respect
  7. 7. “Thus, the conventional view that natural selection favors nervous systems which produce ever more accurate images of the world must be a very naive view of mental evolution” (Trivers 1976/2006)
  8. 8. Heuristics "I sn’t more information always better? In economics, Nobel prizes are regularly awarded for work that assumes that people make decisions as if they had perfect information and could compute the optimal solution for the problem at hand. But how do real people make good decisions under the usual conditions of little time and scarce information? Consider how players catch a ball—in baseball, cricket, or soccer. It may seem that they would have to solve complex differential equations in their heads to predict the trajectory of the ball. In fact, players use a simple heuristic. When a ball comes in high, the player fixates the ball and starts running. The heuristic is to adjust the running speed so that the angle of gaze remains constant —that is, the angle between the eye and the ball. The player can ignore all the information necessary to compute the trajectory, such as the ball’s initial velocity, distance, and angle, and just focus on one piece of nformation, the angle of gaze. " Gerd Gigerenzer
  9. 9. David Rock's SCARF model • • • • • Status Certainty Autonomy Relatedness Fairness
  10. 10. Reading List Kahneman - Thinking Fast & Slow Kurzban - Why Everyone (Else) is a Hypocrite Seabright - The Company of Strangers Haidt - The Righteous Mind Sutherland (Stuart) - Irrationality Frank - The Darwin Economy Dan Ariely - Predictably Irrational Thaler & Sunstein - Nudge Kenrick & Griskevicius - The Rational Animal @rorysutherland / @ogilvychange
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