HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place

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This document presents a preview of the new version of HunchLab with a focus on geographic modeling. HunchLab 2.0 allows police departments to prioritize resource deployments by using predictive …

This document presents a preview of the new version of HunchLab with a focus on geographic modeling. HunchLab 2.0 allows police departments to prioritize resource deployments by using predictive analytics that take into account many data sets and reflect the priorities of the police department. The webinar was recorded on September 25th, 2013.

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  • 1. 340 N 12th St, Suite 402 Philadelphia, PA 19107 215.925.2600 info@azavea.com www.hunchlab.com 2.0 Preview Webinar
  • 2. Predictive Policing
  • 3. Places People Patterns } Prioritization
  • 4. Places People Patterns } Prioritization
  • 5. Places People Patterns } Prioritization
  • 6. What is the number one activity of police officers in U.S. cities? It’s driving around aimlessly, burning fossil fuels, waiting for the next call from the dispatchers. Tom Casady Lincoln, NE
  • 7. Command Officers Analysts
  • 8. Command
  • 9. What’s a commander’s role?
  • 10. It’s the fourth Wednesday
  • 11. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September
  • 12. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session.
  • 13. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries
  • 14. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday.
  • 15. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening.
  • 16. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars,
  • 17. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores,
  • 18. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores, and a school are in the neighborhood.
  • 19. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores, and a school are in the neighborhood. The forecast is 73° with partly cloudy skies.
  • 20. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores, and a school are in the neighborhood. The forecast is 73° with partly cloudy skies. Where do you focus your 2 vehicles?
  • 21. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores, and a school are in the neighborhood. The forecast is 73° with partly cloudy skies. Where do you focus your 2 vehicles?
  • 22. Predictive Missions •  Multiple crime theories •  Your priorities •  Your resources
  • 23. Demo
  • 24. Command Officers Analysts
  • 25. Officers
  • 26. What’s an officer’s role?
  • 27. Dissemination
  • 28. Map Dissemination
  • 29. Map PDF Dissemination
  • 30. Map SidekickPDF Dissemination
  • 31. Map •  Geographic mission viewer •  View of specific moment in time
  • 32. PDF •  Disseminate via print and email •  Support older mobile devices
  • 33. Sidekick •  Uses GPS location •  Contextual information •  Accessible on MDT, tablet, smartphone
  • 34. Command Officers Analysts
  • 35. Analysts
  • 36. What’s an analyst’s role?
  • 37. Predictive Missions
  • 38. Predictive Missions •  Given –  Specific Time Period •  Day, shift, etc. –  Specific Priorities •  Crime types with specific weightings –  Specific Resources •  Quantity of patrol vehicles, foot patrols, etc. •  Determine –  Optimal areas for patrol
  • 39. •  Crime predictions based on: –  Aoristic event times –  Baseline crime levels •  Similar to traditional hotspot maps –  Near repeat patterns •  Event recency (contagion) –  Risk Terrain Modeling •  Proximity and density of geographic features •  Points, Lines, Polygons (bars, bus stops, etc.) –  Collective Efficacy •  Socioeconomic indicators (poverty, unemployment, etc.) Predictive Missions
  • 40. •  Crime predictions based on: –  Routine Activity Theory •  Offender: proximity and concentration of known offenders •  Guardianship: police presence (AVL / GPS) •  Targets: measures of exposure (population, parcels, vehicles) –  Temporal cycles •  Seasonality, time of month, day of week, time of day –  Recurring temporal events •  Holidays, sporting events, etc. –  Weather •  Temperature, precipitation Predictive Missions
  • 41. Demo
  • 42. Lincoln Example # Assaults x $87,238 # Burglary x $13,096 # MVT x $9,079 Sum to Predicted Cost of Crime # Rape x $217,866 # Robbery x $67,277
  • 43. Patrol Benefit (Predicted Crime) Patrol Effort (Road Length) ÷ = Patrol Benefit / Effort Lincoln Example
  • 44. Patrol Benefit / Effort Patrol Effort (Budget) Select Best Areas Subject to ‘Budget’ Lincoln Example
  • 45. Lincoln Example
  • 46. Lincoln Example # Assaults x $87,238 # Burglary x $13,096 # MVT x $9,079 Sum to Predicted Cost of Crime # Rape x $217,866 # Robbery x $67,277
  • 47. Notes •  Intelligence associated with a place •  Polygon, address buffer, etc. •  Displayed on Map and Sidekick
  • 48. Tactics •  Response strategies (the playbook) •  Specific crime types •  Specific locations
  • 49. Command Predictive Missions
  • 50. Command Officers Map PDF Sidekick Predictive Missions
  • 51. Command Officers Analysts Predictive Missions Notes Tactics Map PDF Sidekick Predictive Missions
  • 52. How accurate is it?
  • 53. Testing Results •  Time Period –  1 period ahead predictions over 28 days •  Models –  HunchLab selected model (ensemble) –  Six baseline models •  Counts –  28 day –  56 day –  364 day •  Kernel Densities –  28 day –  56 day –  364 day •  Metrics
  • 54. Cells ranked highest to lowest A map represented as a grid of cells 0% 100% Crime Location
  • 55. Cells ranked highest to lowest 0% 100%
  • 56. Cells ranked highest to lowest 0% 100% Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes
  • 57. Cells ranked highest to lowest 0% 100% Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes Average Crime Rank
  • 58. Cells ranked highest to lowest 0% 100% Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes Average Crime Rank 0% 50% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent of Crimes Captured vs. Percent of Patrol Area
  • 59. Results •  Lincoln, NE –  Assaults –  Burglary –  Motor Vehicle Theft (MVT) –  Rape –  Robbery
  • 60. 0%   20%   40%   60%   80%   100%   Assault  Burglary  MVT  Rape  Robbery   Percent  of  Patrol  Area  to  Capture  All  Crimes  
  • 61. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Assault Burglary MVT Rape Robbery Average  Crime  Rank  
  • 62. Results •  Large City –  Burglary –  Theft of Motor Vehicle –  Theft from Motor Vehicle –  Robbery –  Violence •  Limited our model to only crime data
  • 63. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Burglary
  • 64. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Theft From Motor Vehicle
  • 65. 0 0.2 0.4 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Theft of Motor Vehicle
  • 66. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Robbery
  • 67. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Violence
  • 68. Questions 340 N 12th St, Suite 402 Philadelphia, PA 19107 215.925.2600 info@azavea.com www.hunchlab.com