340 N 12th St, Suite 402
Philadelphia, PA 19107
215.925.2600
info@azavea.com
www.hunchlab.com
2.0 Preview Webinar
Predictive Policing
Places
People
Patterns
} Prioritization
Places
People
Patterns
} Prioritization
Places
People
Patterns
} Prioritization
What is the number one activity of police
officers in U.S. cities?
It’s driving around aimlessly, burning fossil
fuels, wa...
Command Officers Analysts
Command
What’s a commander’s role?
It’s the fourth Wednesday
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday.
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phi...
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phi...
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phi...
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phi...
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phi...
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phi...
It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phi...
Predictive Missions
•  Multiple crime theories
•  Your priorities
•  Your resources
Demo
Command Officers Analysts
Officers
What’s an officer’s role?
Dissemination
Map
Dissemination
Map PDF
Dissemination
Map SidekickPDF
Dissemination
Map
•  Geographic mission viewer
•  View of specific moment in time
PDF
•  Disseminate via print and email
•  Support older mobile devices
Sidekick
•  Uses GPS location
•  Contextual information
•  Accessible on MDT, tablet, smartphone
Command Officers Analysts
Analysts
What’s an analyst’s role?
Predictive Missions
Predictive Missions
•  Given
–  Specific Time Period
•  Day, shift, etc.
–  Specific Priorities
•  Crime types with specif...
•  Crime predictions based on:
–  Aoristic event times
–  Baseline crime levels
•  Similar to traditional hotspot maps
–  ...
•  Crime predictions based on:
–  Routine Activity Theory
•  Offender: proximity and concentration of known offenders
•  G...
Demo
Lincoln Example
# Assaults
x
$87,238
# Burglary
x
$13,096
# MVT
x
$9,079
Sum to Predicted Cost of Crime
# Rape
x
$217,866
...
Patrol Benefit
(Predicted Crime)
Patrol Effort
(Road Length)
÷ =
Patrol
Benefit / Effort
Lincoln Example
Patrol
Benefit / Effort
Patrol Effort
(Budget)
Select Best Areas
Subject to ‘Budget’
Lincoln Example
Lincoln Example
Lincoln Example
# Assaults
x
$87,238
# Burglary
x
$13,096
# MVT
x
$9,079
Sum to Predicted Cost of Crime
# Rape
x
$217,866
...
Notes
•  Intelligence associated with a place
•  Polygon, address buffer, etc.
•  Displayed on Map and Sidekick
Tactics
•  Response strategies (the playbook)
•  Specific crime types
•  Specific locations
Command
Predictive Missions
Command Officers
Map
PDF
Sidekick
Predictive Missions
Command Officers Analysts
Predictive Missions
Notes
Tactics
Map
PDF
Sidekick
Predictive Missions
How accurate is it?
Testing Results
•  Time Period
–  1 period ahead predictions over 28 days
•  Models
–  HunchLab selected model (ensemble)
...
Cells ranked highest to lowest
A map represented as a grid of cells
0% 100%
Crime Location
Cells ranked highest to lowest
0% 100%
Cells ranked highest to lowest
0% 100%
Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes
Cells ranked highest to lowest
0% 100%
Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes
Average Crime Rank
Cells ranked highest to lowest
0% 100%
Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes
Average Crime Rank
0%
50%
100%
0% 10% ...
Results
•  Lincoln, NE
–  Assaults
–  Burglary
–  Motor Vehicle Theft (MVT)
–  Rape
–  Robbery
0%	
   20%	
   40%	
   60%	
   80%	
   100%	
  
Assault	
  Burglary	
  MVT	
  Rape	
  Robbery	
  
Percent	
  of	
  Patrol	...
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Assault Burglary MVT Rape Robbery
Average	
  Crime	
  Rank	
  
Results
•  Large City
–  Burglary
–  Theft of Motor Vehicle
–  Theft from Motor Vehicle
–  Robbery
–  Violence
•  Limited ...
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Burglary
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Theft From Motor Vehic...
0
0.2
0.4
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Theft of Motor Vehicle
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Robbery
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Violence
Questions
340 N 12th St, Suite 402
Philadelphia, PA 19107
215.925.2600
info@azavea.com
www.hunchlab.com
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place

873

Published on

This document presents a preview of the new version of HunchLab with a focus on geographic modeling. HunchLab 2.0 allows police departments to prioritize resource deployments by using predictive analytics that take into account many data sets and reflect the priorities of the police department. The webinar was recorded on September 25th, 2013.

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
873
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "HunchLab 2.0 Preview Webinar - Place"

  1. 1. 340 N 12th St, Suite 402 Philadelphia, PA 19107 215.925.2600 info@azavea.com www.hunchlab.com 2.0 Preview Webinar
  2. 2. Predictive Policing
  3. 3. Places People Patterns } Prioritization
  4. 4. Places People Patterns } Prioritization
  5. 5. Places People Patterns } Prioritization
  6. 6. What is the number one activity of police officers in U.S. cities? It’s driving around aimlessly, burning fossil fuels, waiting for the next call from the dispatchers. Tom Casady Lincoln, NE
  7. 7. Command Officers Analysts
  8. 8. Command
  9. 9. What’s a commander’s role?
  10. 10. It’s the fourth Wednesday
  11. 11. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September
  12. 12. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session.
  13. 13. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries
  14. 14. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday.
  15. 15. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening.
  16. 16. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars,
  17. 17. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores,
  18. 18. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores, and a school are in the neighborhood.
  19. 19. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores, and a school are in the neighborhood. The forecast is 73° with partly cloudy skies.
  20. 20. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores, and a school are in the neighborhood. The forecast is 73° with partly cloudy skies. Where do you focus your 2 vehicles?
  21. 21. It’s the fourth Wednesday in September and school is in session. There were 2 burglaries and 3 assaults yesterday. The Phillies play an away game this evening. Six bars, three take-out stores, and a school are in the neighborhood. The forecast is 73° with partly cloudy skies. Where do you focus your 2 vehicles?
  22. 22. Predictive Missions •  Multiple crime theories •  Your priorities •  Your resources
  23. 23. Demo
  24. 24. Command Officers Analysts
  25. 25. Officers
  26. 26. What’s an officer’s role?
  27. 27. Dissemination
  28. 28. Map Dissemination
  29. 29. Map PDF Dissemination
  30. 30. Map SidekickPDF Dissemination
  31. 31. Map •  Geographic mission viewer •  View of specific moment in time
  32. 32. PDF •  Disseminate via print and email •  Support older mobile devices
  33. 33. Sidekick •  Uses GPS location •  Contextual information •  Accessible on MDT, tablet, smartphone
  34. 34. Command Officers Analysts
  35. 35. Analysts
  36. 36. What’s an analyst’s role?
  37. 37. Predictive Missions
  38. 38. Predictive Missions •  Given –  Specific Time Period •  Day, shift, etc. –  Specific Priorities •  Crime types with specific weightings –  Specific Resources •  Quantity of patrol vehicles, foot patrols, etc. •  Determine –  Optimal areas for patrol
  39. 39. •  Crime predictions based on: –  Aoristic event times –  Baseline crime levels •  Similar to traditional hotspot maps –  Near repeat patterns •  Event recency (contagion) –  Risk Terrain Modeling •  Proximity and density of geographic features •  Points, Lines, Polygons (bars, bus stops, etc.) –  Collective Efficacy •  Socioeconomic indicators (poverty, unemployment, etc.) Predictive Missions
  40. 40. •  Crime predictions based on: –  Routine Activity Theory •  Offender: proximity and concentration of known offenders •  Guardianship: police presence (AVL / GPS) •  Targets: measures of exposure (population, parcels, vehicles) –  Temporal cycles •  Seasonality, time of month, day of week, time of day –  Recurring temporal events •  Holidays, sporting events, etc. –  Weather •  Temperature, precipitation Predictive Missions
  41. 41. Demo
  42. 42. Lincoln Example # Assaults x $87,238 # Burglary x $13,096 # MVT x $9,079 Sum to Predicted Cost of Crime # Rape x $217,866 # Robbery x $67,277
  43. 43. Patrol Benefit (Predicted Crime) Patrol Effort (Road Length) ÷ = Patrol Benefit / Effort Lincoln Example
  44. 44. Patrol Benefit / Effort Patrol Effort (Budget) Select Best Areas Subject to ‘Budget’ Lincoln Example
  45. 45. Lincoln Example
  46. 46. Lincoln Example # Assaults x $87,238 # Burglary x $13,096 # MVT x $9,079 Sum to Predicted Cost of Crime # Rape x $217,866 # Robbery x $67,277
  47. 47. Notes •  Intelligence associated with a place •  Polygon, address buffer, etc. •  Displayed on Map and Sidekick
  48. 48. Tactics •  Response strategies (the playbook) •  Specific crime types •  Specific locations
  49. 49. Command Predictive Missions
  50. 50. Command Officers Map PDF Sidekick Predictive Missions
  51. 51. Command Officers Analysts Predictive Missions Notes Tactics Map PDF Sidekick Predictive Missions
  52. 52. How accurate is it?
  53. 53. Testing Results •  Time Period –  1 period ahead predictions over 28 days •  Models –  HunchLab selected model (ensemble) –  Six baseline models •  Counts –  28 day –  56 day –  364 day •  Kernel Densities –  28 day –  56 day –  364 day •  Metrics
  54. 54. Cells ranked highest to lowest A map represented as a grid of cells 0% 100% Crime Location
  55. 55. Cells ranked highest to lowest 0% 100%
  56. 56. Cells ranked highest to lowest 0% 100% Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes
  57. 57. Cells ranked highest to lowest 0% 100% Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes Average Crime Rank
  58. 58. Cells ranked highest to lowest 0% 100% Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes Average Crime Rank 0% 50% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent of Crimes Captured vs. Percent of Patrol Area
  59. 59. Results •  Lincoln, NE –  Assaults –  Burglary –  Motor Vehicle Theft (MVT) –  Rape –  Robbery
  60. 60. 0%   20%   40%   60%   80%   100%   Assault  Burglary  MVT  Rape  Robbery   Percent  of  Patrol  Area  to  Capture  All  Crimes  
  61. 61. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Assault Burglary MVT Rape Robbery Average  Crime  Rank  
  62. 62. Results •  Large City –  Burglary –  Theft of Motor Vehicle –  Theft from Motor Vehicle –  Robbery –  Violence •  Limited our model to only crime data
  63. 63. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Burglary
  64. 64. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Theft From Motor Vehicle
  65. 65. 0 0.2 0.4 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Theft of Motor Vehicle
  66. 66. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Robbery
  67. 67. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% PercentofCrimesCaptured Percent of Land Area Violence
  68. 68. Questions 340 N 12th St, Suite 402 Philadelphia, PA 19107 215.925.2600 info@azavea.com www.hunchlab.com

×