How will dentistry                                              look in 2020?                                             ...
Patient & oral health trends                                                                                 Dental health...
Dental practice trends (2/2)   Dentists by                                                                                ...
Dental lab & dental technician trends                                            Reduction of independent labs; fewer     ...
Industry & economic trends                                                         Further industry consolidation expected...
Implant market assumed to grow in high single digits     Implant dentistry market1 value (in CHF bn)                      ...
Strong growth in BRIC; US a significant driver                                                                            ...
US example: implant penetration rising to 25-30%      Tooth loss and treatment courses (US)                               ...
Key drivers for implant volume growth                                                                ACCEPTANCE1          ...
Treatment access crucial for growth in India & China                                              Implant penetration and ...
Key drivers for implant volume growth                                                            ACCEPTANCE1              ...
Premium expected to be largest segment in 2020, despite slower growth than overall market     Implant market segment      ...
The dental practice of the future – a glimpseSTRAUMANN CMD 2012                              30Copyright Straumann. All ri...
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How will Dentistry in 2020 Look Straumann 2012

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Transcript of "How will Dentistry in 2020 Look Straumann 2012"

  1. 1. How will dentistry look in 2020? Gilbert Achermann, Chairman Capital Markets Day Amsterdam, 16 May 2012 Methodology To complement existing research, we conducted more than 40 interviews with KOLs and dental experts,... …benchmarked against other industries... ...and researched the fundamentals of the dental industrySTRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 7 1
  2. 2. Patient & oral health trends Dental health will improve No substitute for dental implants will emerge in the next 10 years The number of dental patients with co-morbidities will increase Patients will want more and better information on dental health & treatment optionsSTRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 8 Dental practice trends (1/2) Group practices (including Single-owner practices Today 2020 dental chains) will increase Germany 80-85% ~75% while single-owner practices decline USA 70% 50-60% More women are entering Female dentists Today 2020 dentistry Germany 40% 45-50% Women graduates less likely to USA 22% ~30% specialize further in surgery A growing proportion of female dentists will work part-timeSTRAUMANN CMD 2012 Source:Gesundheitsberichterstattung des Bundes 2011; Deutsches Statistisches Bundesamt 2000-2009; Bundeszahnärztekammer 2010; 2010 ADA Dental workforce model: 2008-2030, 9Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. Straumann estimates 2
  3. 3. Dental practice trends (2/2) Dentists by ~25% of dentists today <35 35-44 45-54 55-64 >65 Total age (in %) 1 are aged 55–64 and are expected to retire by 2020 DE 15 24 33 23 5 100 Majority of young dentists US 14 22 26 26 14 100 replacing retiring dentists will be female 1 2010 data. DE projection refers to practitioners, US projection refers to professionallySTRAUMANN CMD 2012 active dentists. This may explain the higher percentage of dentists >65 in the US 10Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. Source: Bundeszahnärztekammer 2010; 2010 ADA Dental workforce model: 2008-2030 Dental professional trends Productivity will be higher, chair time will be shorter Implant procedures will be driven by prosthetics Investments in new technology will raise the barrier for opening new dental practices Implants are an increasingly attractive economic option for dentistsSTRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 11 3
  4. 4. Dental lab & dental technician trends Reduction of independent labs; fewer dental technicians Many labs integrated in dental practices Dental technicians will be computer savvy Simple restorations will be generally produced chair-side Complex restorations will be milled centrally Monolithic restorations will be commonly used for crownsSTRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 12 Digital technology trends Digitalization will further change value chain & workflows for dentists and labs Dental and medical patient dossiers will be digital and integrated Digital scanning will provide a complete 3D-view of the oral situation Surgical and prosthetic design software will convergeSTRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 13 4
  5. 5. Industry & economic trends Further industry consolidation expected Increased competition for talent Dental implant market growth correlates with consumer behaviour and macroeconomic environment Economic pressure in developed countries fosters ‘good-enough’ mentality among patients and dentistsSTRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 14 General assumptions implant dentistry 2020 We assumed… We did NOT assume… Implant penetration will Implants will become the increase standard in restorative dentistry More GPs will restore and All GPs will place implants place implants in simple cases themselves Implants will be in place for High incidence of periimplantitis long periods; need for maintenance will increase Customized abutments will Customized abutments will fully reach market share of ~30% replace standard abutments by 2020STRAUMANN CMD 2012 Source: Straumann estimatesCopyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 15 5
  6. 6. Implant market assumed to grow in high single digits Implant dentistry market1 value (in CHF bn) Main threat to long-term market growth in implant dentistry is 2011 2020 CAGR 2011-20 the possibility of another global ~3.5 6-8 6-10% recession between now and 2020 (lower range estimate) High single-digit growth of implant dentistry market is considered most likely 1 Includes implants, abutments, tools. These data only include inflation element.STRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. Source: MRG 2011, Straumann data. 16Share of APAC & LATAM/ROW will increase significantly The global dental implant market by region1 5-10% 10-15% LATAM and ROW 15-20% ~25% APAC 25-30% ~25% North America 45-50% 35-40% Europe 2011 2020 1 Europe (DE, IT, ES, FR, SE, UK, CH, NL, BE, LU, CZ, RU, HU, PO, RO, IL),STRAUMANN CMD 2012 NAM (US, CA), APAC (AU, JP, KR, CN, IN), ROW (BR) 17Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 2 Source:MRG 2010, Straumann data and estimates 6
  7. 7. Strong growth in BRIC; US a significant driver Dental implant market size (value) Source: MRG 2010, Fundação Getulio Vargas, Ernst & Young, McKinsey GlobalSTRAUMANN CMD 2012 Institute, BCG, US Census Bureau; Straumann estimates. 18Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. Key drivers for implant volume growth ACCEPTANCE1 • What will the projected market growth imply for the implant penetration rate? • Is there a natural ceiling for the implant penetration rate? AFFORDABILITY ACCESS• Will patients have the money • Will patients have access available for implant treatment? to trained dentists for implant treatment?• Will dentists shift to non-premium or will premium remain strong? • Will the productivity of trained dentists be sufficient?STRAUMANN CMD 2012 1 Acceptance of implants by customers and patients 19Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 7
  8. 8. US example: implant penetration rising to 25-30% Tooth loss and treatment courses (US) Adult population People affected by tooth loss: 45-55% Annual tooth loss cases seeking treatment: 5-10% People actually treated: 45-55% Implant treatment Conventional treatment 2011: 15-20% 2011: 80-85% 2020: 25-30% 2020: 70-75% 1 Straumann definition for dental implant penetration: Number of people treated withSTRAUMANN CMD 2012 dental implants/number of people treated for tooth lossCopyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 2 Source:Straumann proprietary study based on ~5000 respondents conducted by 20 AFG Research 2011; Straumann estimates Implant penetration: long-term growth driver Dental implants per 10 000 population in 2011 Implant penetration is a long-  82  82 term growth driver 200 Top3 Today, in most countries, the 193 number of implants placed annually per 10K population is >50% lower than the average 100 of the three highest-penetrated countries 0 KR IT ES CH DE SE BR FR US JP UK CNSTRAUMANN CMD 2012 Source: Straumann estimates, MRG 2011.Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 21 8
  9. 9. Key drivers for implant volume growth ACCEPTANCE1 • What will the prognosed market growth imply for the implant penetration rate? • Is there ‚a natural ceiling‘ for the implant penetration rate? AFFORDABILITY ACCESS• Will patients have the money • Will patients have access available for implant treatment? to dentists trained in implant treatment?• Will dentists shift to non-premium or will premium remain strong? • Will the productivity of trained dentists be sufficient?STRAUMANN CMD 2012 22Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved.US example: dentist population growing slower thanimplant market Development of number of dental implants and dentists in the US 2010-2020 Approx. 18-20% dentists in the US place implants1 2-4 million 55-60 dental implants on CAGR dental implants 10-20% average are placed per dentist per year 1-2 million Increase of treatment >8% dental implants provider pool (GPs, females) and efficiency gains of the treatment workflow needed to drive penetration 185 000 dentists 195 000 dentists <1% 2010 2020 1Estimate based on iData 2010STRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. Source:Straumann estimates; IHS Global Insight; American Dental Association, 23 Health Policy Resources Center, 2010 ADA Dental Workforce Model 2008-2030 9
  10. 10. Treatment access crucial for growth in India & China Implant penetration and dentist density1 20112 by country 250 100 # of implants per 10 000 Dentists per population per year 100 000 population 200 80 150 60 61 Average (OECD) 100 40 Average (OECD) 91 50 20 0 0 SE DE JP FR US IT ES CH UK KR CN IN Number of implants per 10 000 population per year (2010) Dentists per 100 000 population (2007 or latest available data) 1 China,India dentist density represent estimates by STMN based on V2020 since notSTRAUMANN CMD 2012 included in OECDCopyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 2 Implants: 2010 data; Dentists: 2007 or latest available data ; Source: Health at a glance 24 2009, OECD indicators; Straumann estimates; IHS Global InsightEfficiency and education In developed countries, efficiency must improve to cope with future patient flow (fewer technicians/dentists per patient) Simpler and more standardized treatment protocols will be important to reduce chair time and this in turn means that efficiency will increase Education remains key to support growth in emerging marketsSTRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 25 10
  11. 11. Key drivers for implant volume growth ACCEPTANCE1 • What will the prognosed market growth imply for the implant penetration rate? • Is there ‚a natural ceiling‘ for the implant penetration rate? AFFORDABILITY ACCESS • Will patients be able to pay for • Will patients have access implant treatment? to trained dentists for implant treatment? • Will dentists shift to non-premium or will premium remain strong? • Will the productivity of trained dentists be sufficient?STRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 26‘Affordability’ in developed and emerging countries Change in public reimbursement for implant treatment is not foreseen Price difference between implant and conventional bridge solutions for single- tooth replacement remains relatively small in developed markets In emerging markets affordability is the key to unlocking full market potential; increasing wealth in emerging markets will strengthen premium segment over time Workflow efficiency gains should reduce overall treatment costsSTRAUMANN CMD 2012Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 27 11
  12. 12. Premium expected to be largest segment in 2020, despite slower growth than overall market Implant market segment Premium Value Discount Presence Global Regional, local2 Local US Examples for countries with Japan Brazil, South Korea predominant segment today Germany Expected development 2020 Volume Price Rationale Price discipline of Volume growth in BRIC Volume growth in BRIC players Price decline due to Prices stable since Differentiation through increased competition, many players already innovation & services challenges to struggle with profitability differentiate today Segment ranking #1 #2 #3 within total market1 1 Based on segment size in valueSTRAUMANN CMD 2012 2 Some attempting to become global; Source: Straumann estimates 28Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. Key points in brief Key trends • Better informed Patients • More co-morbidities • Customer base more diverse Dental • More female dentists profession • Shortage of dentists placing implants • Prosthetics determine treatment • Digitalization changing workflows + value chain Technology • Innovation expanding patient pool • Growth driven by penetration + demographics Industry + • Geographic shifts (emerging markets) markets • Brand + differentiation essential in maturing markets • Need for implant maintenance • Continued weak economy in Europe Economic • US and emerging markets drive growth environment • Increased competition for talentSTRAUMANN CMD 2012 29Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 12
  13. 13. The dental practice of the future – a glimpseSTRAUMANN CMD 2012 30Copyright Straumann. All rights reserved. 13

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