This is one of the volumes which comprise a series published by John Wiley & Sons. It was edited by Stephen J. Hoch and Howard C. Kunreuther with Robert E. Gunther. In the first chapter which serves as an introduction, Hoch and Kunreuther examine what they characterize as a "complex web of decisions." As they observe, "We need to make the decision making process conscious, to be aware that we are cutting corners and when we need more thorough analysis. Building this awareness of the process - especially given the new complexities of decision making in our modern age - is crucial to successful management....The goal of this book is to build this awareness of the intricacies of the decision-making process." Collectively, the 16 contributors explore decision making on four separate but related levels: as an individual, in our role as a manager, in the context of negotiations and other multiparty interactions, and at the broadest level, in terms of how societal decisions can be managed.
Appropriately, the material is organized within Four Parts:
"Personal Decision Making" (Chapters 2-4): Issues addressed include the challenges of personal decisions, the role the emotions play in managerial decisions - for good or ill, how humans make "surprisingly effective decisions" even when using short cuts, and the same approaches can lead to serious errors...and consequences.
"Managerial Decision Making" (Chapters5-8): Issues addressed include how to combine analytical models with intuition and other approaches during the managerial decision-making process, the significant differences between "the expedient Western approach" and the "reflective Eastern strategy" of decision making, and why managers must be able to "manage their own frames, or they will be blinded by their own successes and the limits of their world views."
"Multiparty Decision Making" (Chapters 9-12): Issues addressed include the nature and extent of interactions between and among managers across multiple periods, what Game Theory suggests about how people learn from experience, how reputations affect the way partners and opponents approach negotiations, how these reputations can best be used and shaped, common deceptions in negotiations and how to recognize them, how decision-support systems and resources can help improve negotiation results.
"Impact of Decision Making on Society" (Chapters 13-17): Subjects covered include various uses of medical tests based on analytical models, the impact of personal (Protected") values on societal decisions, what "protected decisions" are and how they are made, the nature of "information cascades" which involve either "learners" or "lemmings," and how and why inconsistencies in private and public decisions suggest a "split personality."
The 16 contributors are to be commended on their collective examination of how people should make decisions, how they actually do so, and how they can improve their decision making. I especially appreciate the generous provision of real-world examples (e.g. Nick Leeson and Barings Securities), as well as reader-friendly check-lists (e.g. lessons for managers based on the Leeson/Barings scandal), charts and graphs which illustrate core concepts, and use of italics and bold face to expedite periodic review of key points.
My guess (only a guess) is that those in greatest need of what this book offers are least likely to invest the time and effort required to absorb and digest the material, much less act upon it. If you are among them, if you have by now concluded not to read this book, reconsider that decision. Odds are, it's a bad one.
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