The Long Thaw: How Humans Are
Changing the Next 100,000 Years of
Earths Climate (Science Essentials)
by David Archer
Take Your Climate Knowledge To The Next Level
If you think that global warming means slightly hotter weather and a
modest rise in sea levels that will persist only so long as fossil fuels hold
out (or until we decide to stop burning them), think again. In The Long
Thaw, David Archer, one of the worlds leading climatologists, predicts that
if we continue to emit carbon dioxide we may eventually cancel the next
ice age and raise the oceans by 50 meters. By comparing the global
warming projection for the next century to natural climate changes of the
distant past, and then looking into the future far beyond the usual scientific
and political horizon of the year 2100, Archer reveals the hard truths of the
long-term climate forecast.

Archer shows how just a few centuries of fossil-fuel use will cause not only
a climate storm that will last a few hundred years, but dramatic climate
changes that will last thousands. Carbon dioxide emitted today will be a
problem for millennia. For the first time, humans have become major
players in shaping the long-term climate. In fact, a planetwide thaw driven
by humans has already begun. But despite the seriousness of the
situation, Archer argues that it is still not too late to avert dangerous
climate change--if humans can find a way to cooperate as never before.
Revealing why carbon dioxide may be an even worse gamble in the long
run than in the short, this compelling and critically important book brings
the best long-term climate science to a general audience for the first time.
Personal Review: The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing
the Next 100,000 Years of Earths Climate (Science Essentials) by
David Archer
The Long Thaw is refreshingly free of political overtones, although it
attempts to address the thorny issue of what climate change means to
humans. The author does this by looking into what the past climate held
for the earth, as our planet essentially flip-flopped between very cold and
very warm (we have been living in an unprecedented stable period of
temperate climate for the last 10,000 years or so).
Lots and lots of science here, but none too daunting, that go into detail on
how natural warming and cooling occur, with descriptions of sunspot
activities, cyclical orbital changes, ocean mixing behavior, volcanic activity,
and yes, carbon dioxide levels. Because the author takes such a long
view in the past (and future), he avoids most of the current politicization of
global warming discussion. He clearly states that cyclical warming is
natural and expected, but then makes a good case that our current
warming is likely to be almost completely human-made, as we should be
entering a new ice age.
The Long Thaw is quite original in its discussion on important aspects of
climate change. It does not re-hash IPCC reports, or discuss alternate
energy sources. It doesn't even really scare the reader into thinking
climate change is bad - it just points out certain facts, such as an inevitable
rise in sea level if carbon dioxide emissions continue along a business-as-
usual path.
A few things I learned from the book:
Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, on average, a few hundred
years, but some remains for thousands of years.
Very small changes in solar energy input or carbon dioxide levels can lead
to very great changes in climate.

Carbon dioxide does not always cause global warming initially, but always
makes it worse due to positive feedback cycles. (The warmer it gets, more
CO2 is produced, and the more CO2 that is in the air, the warmer it gets.)
We can probably burn all the existing oil and natural gas without causing
dangerous warming of the planet, but coal is ten times more abundant than
oil and natural gas combined, and if we burn all the coal, the planet will
most likely become extremely hot, with sea level rises of 30 feet and
displacement of ten percent of the world's population. Sea level rise could
be as great as 150 feet, flooding large parts of where people live.
Global warming naturally occurs throughout geological history. The
difference this time is that warming appears to be occurring largely due to
human burning of fossil fuels, and the change is more rapid than natural.
Slow climate change can be adapted to, but it is not known if human
societies have the ability to adapt to rapid climate change.
The cost to avoid dangerous climate interference is very small if we act
now. Because carbon dioxide emission costs are currently not paid for
(they are externalized to everyone, not just the producer), there is no
incentive to reduce emissions.
A very well-written book, heavy on science and facts (as currently
understood), and almost devoid of politics and alternate energy
discussions.
For More 5 Star Customer Reviews and Lowest Price:
The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earths Climate
(Science Essentials) by David Archer 5 Star Customer Reviews and Lowest Price!