Trends in turbine size and technology

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Trends in turbine size and technology

  1. 1. Trends in turbine size and technology THINKING
  2. 2. THINKING Summary of talk • Why consider turbine size and technology • Look at overall size trends, and NZ • Drivers for technology change • A look at some relevant technical areas • Look to the future • Best practise
  3. 3. THINKING Introduction “They did not know it was impossible, so they did it.” Mark Twain “20MW is Feasible” UpWind Project, 2011 “Nothing is impossible. Some things are just less likely than others.” Jonathan Winters
  4. 4. THINKING Introductionwhy consider turbine size and technology? …every year it seems turbines are getting bigger • Consenting authorities seek definitive designs • Project design parameters • Resource assessments • Advancements are lowering the cost of energy
  5. 5. THINKING Selected Recent NZ Consents Table of selected recent projects and their size limits/philosophy Consented Parameters Project Hub Height Rotor Tip height Puketoi 100m 130m 160m Castle Hill Wind Farm 70/90/110m 115/135/155m Waitahora 100m 100m 125-150m Turitea 80m 90m 125m
  6. 6. THINKING Turbine size trends Turbine sizes increases - selected models from era
  7. 7. THINKING Turbine size trends NZ Turbine sizes increases - selected models from era
  8. 8. THINKING Technology drivers What are the drivers for turbine technology change? Reduction of the cost of energy “Secondary” drivers • More GWh • Electrical and communications technologies • Economics of scale • Materials science • Transport/logistics
  9. 9. THINKING Areas of current R&D New generation HTS materials = “technically and economically viable” High Temperature Superconductors • Superconducting wire with very high performance • HTS Generator reportedly around 1/3 of weight of conventional direct drive MVA for MVA 1st generation HTS 2nd generation HTS Copper price band
  10. 10. THINKING Blades and transport GE “fabric covered blade” Two part blades Enercon blade transporter/lifter
  11. 11. THINKING Other tech in play? • Turbine battery storage • Wind farm storage • Hydraulic drive drains • Hybrid towers (concrete/steel) • Advanced composite towers, eg “space frame tower” • Permanent magnet generators? • Completely new designs?
  12. 12. THINKING Turbine size/technology future trends • UpWind project (2011) concluded that a “20MW turbine is feasible” • But, relies on technological advances… • Not clear when economies of scale relationship breaks down – ceiling keeps shifting • Manufacturers know logistics are important • Likely that turbine scale will increase, 10MW turbines will probably be realised • With technology advances 15MW+ is quite possible • “Same but bigger” wont cut it
  13. 13. THINKING What about the ‘small’ end of the market? • There are still “top-ten” manufacturers producing small turbines • Emergence of players focussing on this market segment • Relicensed technology • Used and refurbished turbine industry
  14. 14. THINKING So how should I plan my project? • Research indicates turbines are getting bigger • Visual assessment is a complex area Recommendations for developers • Ask manufacturers where their technology is going, product retirement • Set limits based on implementation strategy • Continually monitor market.. things change quickly
  15. 15. Contact Peter Armstrong Unit Manager, Energy Services, Aurecon +61 3 9975 3037 peter.armstrong@aurecongroup.com

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