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Earthquake forecasting based on ionosphere statistical monitoring

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A brief of the process for getting ionospheric anomalies and detection of pre-seismic signals

A brief of the process for getting ionospheric anomalies and detection of pre-seismic signals

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  • 1. Earthquake Forecasting based onIonosphere Statistical Monitoring: A BRIEF OF THE INTEGRATED METHOD FOR IONOSPHERIC-SEISMIC MONITORING CHILE-SISMOS 2012
  • 2. Earthquake Forecasting based onIonosphere Statistical Monitoring1. DATA COLLECTING AND PROCESSINGThe GPS data is obtained from the IGS stations andothers, at the UNAVCO server site. Daily files areextracted in RINEX format. They content geodeticmeasures and an estimation of the ionospheric signaldelay (∆t).
  • 3. Earthquake Forecasting based onIonosphere Statistical Monitoring1. DATA COLLECTING AND PROCESSINGRINEX files are processed by Rinex GPS-TECsoftware, provided by Gopi Seemala Ph.D (Gopi.Seemala@BC.edu) . STD extension ASCIIoutput files contain the VTEC values measured every10 minutes. UT VTEC σTEC Lat 0.00 17.03 4.11 -34.38 0.10 16.89 3.99 -34.38 0.20 16.83 3.47 -34.38 0.30 17.08 3.33 -34.38 0.40 17.29 3.21 -34.38
  • 4. Earthquake Forecasting based onIonosphere Statistical Monitoring2. STATISTICAL CALCULATIONA Summation Index analysis of the VTEC from 2 GPS-TEC stations is performed (Pulinet et al. 2004) C = Σ (f 1,i – af1) (f 2,i -af 2) k(σ1σ2)An upper percentage deviation of the analysis for eachGPS-TEC station values is also performed UB = (x - UB) or UB = x 0.96 σ UBThe daily or 3-hours kp index is arranged in a chart
  • 5. Earthquake Forecasting based onIonosphere Statistical Monitoring3. INTERPRETATION OF RESULTSA triangulation based on the Index Summation chartis estimated for 3 stations: C(1, 2), C(2, 3), and C(3,1).Every value >0.8 is compared against the peaks fromthe upper percentage deviation and kp index trends. GPS-TEC Source EarthquakeAnomaly (C>0.8) will be present in the closer GPS-TECstation
  • 6. Earthquake Forecasting based onIonosphere Statistical Monitoring3. INTERPRETATION OF RESULTSIn days under kp<4, drops on the C charts (>0.8)might be interpreted as ionospheric anomaliesproduced by electro-chemical, or electromagneticemissions from the crustal region close to the faultsprior an earthquake, or a vulcano eruption.Generally, there is an opposite behavior between the Cand UB% charts in the time that anomalies occur.A peak in the 1020Ǻ Aerosol Optical Thickness(AOT), is also observed in most of the cases. This is thewavelength of the Radon (Rn).
  • 7. Earthquake Forecasting based onIonosphere Statistical Monitoring3. INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS K=4UTC: 08:33:05 04/07/2012 5.2Mw Concepción (8 days ahead)
  • 8. Earthquake Forecasting based onIonosphere Statistical Monitoring3. INTERPRETATION OF RESULTSA “zoom” of the anomaly in the %UB chart provide adimensional analysis of the TEC disturbance:Per Dovobrolsky’s equation magnitude can be estimatedMax: 28,26 40 1130.4 565.2 6.4Min: 7,05 40 282 141 5.0Aver: 17,65 40 706 353 5.9UTC: 08:33:05 04/07/2012 5.2Mw Concepción (8 days ahead)
  • 9. Earthquake Forecasting based onIonosphere Statistical Monitoring3. INTERPRETATION OF RESULTSLATEST RESULTS:Date Anomaly Magnitude Estimated Date Date EQ Magnitude Days Ahead Efficiency %5/19/2012 5.5 5/26/2012 5/28/2012 6.6 10 83.335/24/2012 5.6 6/1/2012 5/31/2012 4.6 7 82.145/29/2012 5.3 6/5/2012 6/6/2012 4.1 8 77.366/4/2012 5.9 6/12/2012 6/7/2012 5.8 3 98.316/15/2012 5.5 6/23/2012 6/23/2012 4.5 8 81.826/23/2012 5.9 7/1/2012 6/28/2012 5.2 5 88.146/25/2012 5.2 7/3/2012 7/4/2012 4.8 9 92.31 Ahead Average Days: 7 Efficiency: 86.2%