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Future energy scenario of world


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A view on past and present energy consumption, future energy scenario ,

A view on past and present energy consumption, future energy scenario ,

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  • Organization of economic co operation and development
  • Transcript

    • 1. Energy scenario Alternative images of how the future might unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties
    • 2. Top Scenarios • Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and beyond, Energy Data Center, WEC • World Energy Outlook 2004 (to be published on October 26, 2004) • International Energy Agency • International Energy Outlook 2004, EIA, US Department of Energy • Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050 Shell Scenarios • World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030, EC
    • 3. Past •Use natural form of energy • Wood used as fire •Then fossil fuel start form • Transportation industry • Domestic purpose •Other energy production •Nuclear power, hydral power etc
    • 4. Fossil
    • 5. World energy consumption from 1820 to 2000
    • 6. Present condition • • • • Depleted non renewable resources Problem of sustainable production Problem of environmental pollution Climate change
    • 7. Energy demand and emissions have doubled in the past 40 years
    • 8. Effect of fossil fuel burning
    • 9. Effect of fossil fuel Due fossil fuel burning human being are suffering from different diseases • Asthma • Lung infection • Respiratory disease • cancer
    • 10. Future
    • 11. Three hard truths about energy supply In our future and also now a days 1) Change in energy use 2) struggle to keep rate 3) Environmental stresses
    • 12. Change in energy use • Demand pressures will stimulate more efficiency in energy use Efficient transport Efficient industry Efficient buildings Efficient appliances
    • 13. Efficient transport • Biodiesel engine • hydrogen fuel or electrical motors
    • 14. Electric vehicles need to come of age Global passenger LDV sales (million) 200 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles FCEV Electricity 150 Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline Diesel hybrid 100 Gasoline hybrid CNG/LPG 50 Diesel 0 2000 Gasoline 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 © OECD/IEA 2012
    • 15. Efficient industry • Good insulation • Efficient motors • Try to build their own energy units
    • 16. Industry must become more efficient 6DS 10 Other industries 8 GtCO2 12 Chemicals and petrochemicals 6 Aluminium 4 Pulp and paper 2 Iron and steel Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved Cement 0 through best available technologies. 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 © OECD/IEA 2012
    • 17. Efficient buildings • • • • • Use natural heating Insulating system must be good Green roofs More windows Use shadow plants
    • 18. Efficient appliances • • • • Energy savers Solar streets lights Small heating units Efficient Aluminum sheets on globs
    • 19. struggle to keep rate • In 2015 -25 • growth rate not equals to demand rate • Alternative resources use • Mostly biological(Less env. Impacts ) • For a short time economic shock( developing countries)
    • 20. Environmental stresses • If it possible to maintain current share of fossil fuel then pollution increases • More diseases • Many sensitive Ecosystem destroy
    • 21. • World population has more than doubled since 1950 and is set to increase by 40% by 2050 • . Population and GDP will grow strongly in non-OECD countries and China and India are just starting their journey on the energy ladder.
    • 22. population range
    • 23. Climbing in energy ladder
    • 24. Preparing for future • governments and companies are positioning for longer-term alternatives • new infrastructures build • CSS (carbon dioxide capture and storage ) • older inefficient ones need to be decommissioned.
    • 25. • Awareness in public sectors is more • Laws for environment. Degradations • Strike rules on fossil fuel use and other degrading energy units
    • 26. Energy Technology Perspectives • The 6°C Scenario (6DS • The 4°C Scenario (4DS) • The 2°C Scenario (2DS)
    • 27. The 6°C Scenario (6DS)  By 2050, energy use almost doubles (compared with 2009) and total GHG emissions rise even more.  In the absence of efforts to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, average global temperature rise is projected to be at least 6°C in the long term.  The 6DS is broadly consistent with the World Energy Outlook Current Policy Scenario through 2035.
    • 28. The 4°C Scenario (4DS) • recent pledges made by countries to limit emissions • limit emissions and step up efforts to improve energy efficiency. • Projecting a long-term temperature rise of 4°C. • an ambitious scenario that requires significant changes in policy and technologies. • capping the temperature increase at 4°C requires significant additional cuts in emissions in the period after 2050.
    • 29. The 2°C Scenario (2DS) • This is a very aggressive target. • 80% chance of limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C. • cutting energy-related CO2 emissions by more than half in 2050 (compared with 2009). • the goal can only be achieved provided that CO2 and GHG emissions in non-energy sectors are also reduced.
    • 30. Four broad energy scenarios 1. 2. 3. 4. Techno-explosion Techno-stability Energy descent Collapse
    • 31. Techno-explosion:  depends on new, large and concentrated energy sources  allows the continual growth in material wealth  generally associated with space travel to colonize other planets.
    • 32. Techno-stability  depends on a seem less conversion from material growth based on depleting energy  to a steady state in consumption of resources and population  all based on novel use of renewable energies and technologies
    • 33. ENERGY DESCENT  a reduction of economic activity, complexity and population  reason is depletion of fossil fuels  less consumption of energy and resources  importance of biological resources like fossil fuels Forests will regain their traditional status as symbol of wealth
    • 34. COLLAPSE Failure of the whole range of interlocked systems that maintain and support industrial society High quality fossil fuels are depleted Damaged the ecosystem  it would inevitably involve a major “die-off” of human population and loss of knowledge and infrastructure needed for industrialization
    • 35. Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden fuel” of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) © OECD/IEA 2012
    • 36. 2/13/2014 44