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Asia House Energy Security in Asia - Keisuke Sadamori presentation
 

Asia House Energy Security in Asia - Keisuke Sadamori presentation

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Presentation from Energy Security in Asia conference on 19 February 2013 by Keisuke Sadamori, International Energy Agency on the Energy Landscape in China

Presentation from Energy Security in Asia conference on 19 February 2013 by Keisuke Sadamori, International Energy Agency on the Energy Landscape in China

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    Asia House Energy Security in Asia - Keisuke Sadamori presentation Asia House Energy Security in Asia - Keisuke Sadamori presentation Presentation Transcript

    • IP Week 2013: Energy Security in AsiaTuesday 19 February 2013Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets and Security © OECD/IEA 2013
    • WEO CURRENT POLICY SCENARIO Global and Chinese Energy Demand (mtoe) 2010 2020 2030 World Total 12,730 15,332 17,499 China Total 2,416 3,519 4,144 C/W 19% 23% 24% World Coal 3,474 4,417 5,115 China Coal 1,602 2,148 2,429 C/W 46.1% 48.6% 47.5% World Oil 4,113 4,542 4,855 China Oil 420 621 734 C/W 10.2% 13.7% 15.1% World Gas 2,740 3341 3,999 China Gas 92 253 379 C/W 3.4% 7.6% 9.5% © OECD/IEA 2013
    • Coal dependence in China Demand of main consuming regions of fossil fuels © OECD/IEA 2013
    • Gas in China - A growing need forimports  Imports to increase from ~30 bcm in 2011 to 113 bcm by 2017  Gas demand grows in all sectors, except fertiliser producers  New sectors emerge such as transport  But there remains supply constraints limiting demand  China needs to solve issues such as pricing and regulation © OECD/IEA 2013
    • China accounts for 40% of global renewableelectricity growth over the medium term China’s renewable generation expected to grow from 850 TWh in 2011 to 1550 TWh in 2017  Hydro is driver, but wind and solar PV additions are world’s largest  Growth driven by rising energy demand, government targets, ample low-cost finance and robust manufacturing Lack of market pricing and grid integration are challenges  Still, authorities implementing measures to facilitate integration of more wind and small-scale solar PV capacity TWh Y-o-Y China forecast renewable generation TWh China power demand vs GDP growth Chg1 800 8 000 18% 16%1 500 14% 6 0001 200 12% 10% 900 4 000 8% 600 6% 2 000 4% 300 2% 0 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Wind offshore CSP Demand Demand, Y-o-Y (RHS) GDP, Y-o-Y (RHS) Source: © OECD/IEA 2013
    • China Demand growth China: Oil Demand Growth by Product, 2010-2017, mb/d 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 - - 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Gasoline Distillates LPG & Naphtha Total (RHS)  Chinese outlook has been pared back as demographics weaken and government-led efficiency measures take effect. This is now counterbalanced by the economic re-accelerating in 4Q12.  Gasoline (+4.7%) & naphtha (+5.7%) will remain the dominant Chinese growth contributors, as the transport and petrochemical sectors are still relatively robust. © OECD/IEA 2013
    • China imports grow on steady supply andrising demand Crude Exports in 2017 and Growth in 2011-17 for Key Trade Routes* (million barrels per day) * Excludes Intra-Regional Trade 0.1 (-0.2) OECD 3.3 Europe (-1.1) OECD 3.0 1.1 (+0.6) Pacific North America (+0.9) 1.3 0.7 4.6 (-0.6) (+0.3) (-0.4) China 0.6 (-1.3) 2.5 Other Asia 1.9 (-0.2) 1.2 (+0.7) -0.3 1.5 5.6 1.7 (+0.7) (+0.3) (-1) 0.2 (+0.2) 0.6 Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2011-17 (+0.2)  As Chinese supply grows at a slower pace (+0.4mb/d) than demand (+2.1mb/d), Chinese crude oil imports significantly grow. © OECD/IEA 2013
    • China Upstream internationalinvestments Chinese Overseas Equity Production Investment by company kb/d 2011 Jan2011-Jun2012 ($B) 750 CIC PetroChina Source: Rystad Energy, IEA Data 3.26 1.54 600 450 300 Sinochem Sinopec 150 7.07 13.2 0 CNPC PetroChina Sinopec Group Sinopec CNOOC Sinochem CNOOC Source: IEA Research, CITIC Interfax, news coverage 5.7  By the end of 2011, Chinese NOCs had equity oil production of 1.7 mb/d  Sinopec led the investments with $13bn  Chinese NOCs moving towards politically stable environments; and more technically challenging  Notably, CNOOC announced acquisition of Canadian Nexen for $15bn © OECD/IEA 2013
    • China new refining projectsRefining capacity additions to 2018 to reach 3.0 mb/d China China mb/d Refining Capacity vs. Demand mb/d Refining Capacity addtions 2012-2018 14 0.8 13 0.7 12 0.6 11 0.5 10 0.4 9 0.3 8 0.2 7 1Q2006 1Q2009 1Q2012 1Q2015 1Q2018 0.1 0 Capacity Demand 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018  Refinery investments set to add 3.0 mb/d of net capacity by 2018  China refinery activity driven by strong domestic demand and exports as expansion outpaces demand  Increased regional and Middle East competition leading to lower run rates, consolidation, project delays and refinery closures © OECD/IEA 2013
    • Demand growth led by non-OECD mb/d OECD vs. Non-OECD Oil Demand 55 OECD Non-OECD 50 45 40 35 30 25 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017  Global oil demand grows by 1.1 mb/d y-o-y to 95.7 mb/d in 2017, from 89 mb/d in 2011  Non-OECD demand overtakes OECD demand by 2014 © OECD/IEA 2013
    • Increasing need for cooperation duringoil supply disruptions 70 70% 60 60% days of world oil demand cover 50 50% 40 40% 30 30% 20 20% 10 10% - 0% IEA stocks in terms of global oil demand with China with India with ASEAN Share of non-OECD in global oil demand Growing share of non-OECD oil demand results in declining global demand cover from IEA emergency oil stocks © OECD/IEA 2013
    • China’s oil stockholding situation  Steadily moving forward oil stock reserves  3-phase approach to stock 500 mb by 2020  Current capacity: around 140 mb  During emergency, NEA will propose to State Council its plan for releasing emergency oil © OECD/IEA 2013
    • IEA cooperation with China Chinese participation in Emergency Response Reviews of IEA member countries  Promote greater understanding on IEA countries’ best practices on emergency policy and measures Chinese participation in Emergency Response Exercise 6  Capacity building on how to tackle supply disruptions © OECD/IEA 2013