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Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
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Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013

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  • 1. www.BRACEPL.comBangladesh Growth Report 2013Prepared bySajid Huq Amit : Director - Strategic Sales : sajid.huq@bracepl.comResearch support bySaleh Chowdhury : Assistant Manager - Strategic Sales : saleh.chowdhury@bracepl.comFebruary 2013
  • 2. www.BRACEPL.comAll cross-country data are obtained from the databases of development agencies including the World Bank and AsianDevelopment Bank unless otherwise mentioned. Data for domestic and external sectors of Bangladesh are primarily obtainedfrom the Bangladesh Bank database.Estimates and projections herein are conducted by BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage Limited (hereafter “BESL”) officers and arebased on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable.Data on market size and growth rates have been obtained from sources we believe to be authoritative and almost in all cases,cross-checked with secondary sources and theoretical analysis. Nevertheless, with regard to all numerical estimates containedherein, we are not able to guarantee either to their accuracy or completeness.This presentation is intended for those this is sent to via electronic, air or hand-delivered mail. No part of this material may,without BESL’s prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to anyperson that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient.2Disclaimer
  • 3. www.BRACEPL.comGlossaryACU Asian Clearing UnionASEAN Association of Southeast AsianNationsBDT Bangladesh TakaBERC Bangladesh Energy RegulatoryCommissionBPDB Bangladesh Power DevelopmentBoardBSEC Bangladesh Securities ExchangeCommission (Note: SEC is morefrequently used)DESCO Dhaka Electric Supply CompanyDGEN DSE General IndexDSE Dhaka Stock ExchangeEU European UnionFDI Foreign Direct InvestmentsFX Foreign ExchangeGCC Gulf Cooperation CouncilGDP Gross Domestic ProductGNI Gross National IncomeIPP Independent Power ProducersJICA Japan International CooperationAgnecykWh Kilo Watt-Hourmmcfd Million Cubic Feet per DayMSCI Morgan Stanley Capital InternationalMT Million TonsMW Mega WattMWh Mega Watt-HourNAFTA North American Free TradeAgreementNBR National Board of RevenueOIC Organisation of Islamic CooperationOPEC Organization of the PetroleumExporting CountriesPPP Purchase Power ParityRMG Ready Made GarmentsS&P Standard & PoorsSAARC South Asian Association for RegionalCooperationSIPP Small Independent Power ProducersUSD United States DollarYTD Year till Date
  • 4. www.BRACEPL.comNote to InvestorsGreetings!It is with great pleasure that we share with you our inauguralBangladesh Growth Report.Bangladesh’s sustained ~6.0% growth since 2004 appeared tohave caught worldwide media attention not too long ago. Ofcourse, if you are reading this, you are likely to have beenahead of the curve.Growth, while not being an end in itself, has certainlytransformed the lives of tens of millions, lifting them out ofpoverty, inspiring ambitions, empowering the middle-class,and setting the stage for what appears to be even highergrowth. Growth, we believe, is a necessary condition for over-arching development, if not sufficient.The story of ready-made garments is rather unique anddeserves the attention it has attracted. However, a less-toldstory that is increasingly significant is that of the Bangladeshiconsumer. As per latest income per capita estimates,Bangladeshis earn US$1,940 per year.Now, according to the S-curve of consumption (or productadoption), that is not an arbitrary number, but one thatindicates an inflexion point after which, consumption increasesat an increasing rate.Considering a middle-class base of ~60 million, a working-agepopulation of ~100 million, and 30 million more below the ageof 14, the growth dynamism that awaits us may catch a few bysurprise. Of course, demographic dividend in Bangladesh’scase is one of many growth engines.We believe, therefore, this is an opportune time to collate data,analysis and estimates on economic growth; monetary, fiscal,and FX policies; trade; migration; demography; consumption;manufacturing; and equity market trends while acknowledgingthe challenges that lie ahead and opportunities lurkingunderneath. Infrastructural development or lack thereofconstitutes a significant challenge to and an opportunity forhigher growth. Effective planning to orchestrate investmentdecisions and operations is essential. In lieu of it, the country’seconomic potential will be unrealized.We hope that you will find this report useful and eveninsightful, and welcome you to share any feedback orquestion, in relation to or independent of your investmentpriorities.Thanking you,Sajid Huq AmitFeb 27, 20134
  • 5. www.BRACEPL.comMeet Bangladesh5
  • 6. www.BRACEPL.comGrowth Dimensions3.4 x29.9 x83.7 x5.1 x33.5 x22 x6.4 xDSE MCAP Growth in ‘02-’12DSE Turnover Growth in ’02-’12Bangladesh GDP Growth in ’02-’12Mobile Subscribers Growth in ‘02-’12Motorcycle Sales Growth in ‘00-’10Remittances Growth in ’02-’12Garments Exports Growth in ’02-’12
  • 7. www.BRACEPL.comBangladesh : A Blurb7Bangladesh is the eight largest country in the worldpopulation-wise: 150.49 million as of 2011. At 130,170 sq.km., it is about the size of Iowa.Despite a low GNI/capita (PPP, current) of $1,940 the growthfundamentals of the economy has received widespreadinternational attention, e.g., Goldman Sachs’ inclusion in “thenext eleven” or N-11 economies as well as JP Morgan’s“Frontier Five.” Guardian has enlisted Bangladesh among theeconomies that have the potential of overtaking the west by2050.Located between China and India, two of the largest andfastest engines of global growth, not to mention nearness toSouth-east Asia, Bangladesh offers unique diplomatic andcommercial opportunities.The Bay of Bengal and the planned deep sea port in thesouth-east; the extensive riverine network; a large andyouthful population, fertile land, and a 99% mobile networkcoverage have set the stage for speedier flows of capital,people, tradable products and services, and ideas.
  • 8. www.BRACEPL.comGrowth Path : BeginningsBangladesh’s steady and in fact rising growth rate over a 25-year horizon surpasses in various country clusters (asdefined by the World Bank).Despite concerns regarding connectedness to US andEurozone markets via trade – the BD economy was resilientthrough the 2008-09 financial crisis and 2011 Eurozone debtcrisis.In 2010, GDP GR peaked at 6.7%, and in 2011, it was at6.5%.8-3.0-1.01.03.05.07.09.01985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009Real GDP Growth (%) Low income Middle income World BangladeshFor 2012, provisional estimates are in the 5.5-6.0% range,notwithstanding a methodological revision expected toindicate ~6.0% GR.While exports have sustained, other pillars of growth havebeen inward remittances, consumption, SME growth anddevelopment, and agricultural self-sufficiency.The outlook indicates more of the same plus increasingmanufacturing output, export diversification, and increasedconnectivity internally and regionally via air, road, rail, andmaritime links.
  • 9. www.BRACEPL.comComparative : Frontier Markets93.24.2 3.72.25.93.34.64.9 5.45.95.34.46.36.66.25.76.7-50510151985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Bangladesh Kenya Lao PDR Nigeria Pakistan-15-10-50510151985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Bangladesh IndonesiaMalaysia ThailandVietnamLooking at specific high-growth economies in Africa, SouthAsia and South East Asia that are grouped with Bangladeshon account of similar investment risk profiles and comparableincome levels - Bangladesh’s economic output has enjoyed asteadier and more resilient trajectory. Certain high-growthcountries have had higher “high’s” but also 300-500 bpvariations in two years or less.Bangladesh’s economic stability fares well even incomparison with the “Emerging Asia,” i.e., more mature high-growth South East Asian countries such as Thailand,Malaysia, and Indonesia, whose growth rates plunged500-1000 bp in two years.
  • 10. www.BRACEPL.comMonetary & Fiscal Performance10
  • 11. www.BRACEPL.comGrowth, Inflation & Monetary Aggregates1112.113.715.512.612.914.819.317.1 17.619.222.421.37.2 7.29.96.7 7.38.82006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Broad MoneyGrowthNominal GDPGrowthAverage AnnualInflation3.8X 4.7X 5.9X 7.7X 8.4X 9.6X 12.4X 13.0X39.8X61.9X109.0XThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesKenyaPakistanSriLankaBangladeshIndonesiaNigeriaVietnamGhanaM2 Growth 1995-2011Central banks around the world try to keep M2 GR in line withnominal GDP GR and an optimal inflation level. In Bangladesh,Broad Money grew 12.4X in 1995-2011. In the same time period,GDP on PPP basis grew ~3X from US$90.7bn to US$267.4bn.The above growth multiples are line with other economies’ thathave enjoyed sustained growth and those in which the bankingsector growth had internal liquidity generation had a relativelyslower start.In 2006-2012, bank deposits (excluding inter-bank) grew at anaverage 19.4% per year. During the same period, total advances(excluding inter-bank) grew by 20.0% on an average.After a slowdown in 2007-08 on political impasse, M2growth rate picked up in 2009. There was excess liquidityin the money market, which eventually entered the stockmarket, leading to 2010’s rally.In 2011, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) turned a corner andput in place a contractionary monetary policy. Since 2011,repo and reverse repo rates have been hiked by 225bp.Meanwhile, M2 GR which had peaked at 21.7% in Dec’10fell to 13.7% in May’12, in line contractionary targets.Other than mopping up the excess liquidity and correctionof asset prices consequently raised – BB’s monetary policyhas also aligned closely with stipulations of a US$1.0bnExtended Credit Facility (ECF) loan that the IMF approvedfor BoP support.
  • 12. www.BRACEPL.com 12Stipulations for disbursements of successive tranches of the loan,included sustaining single-digit inflation and re-classification ofasset quality measurement guidelines as per best practices. Inline with inflation control, the ECF also stipulated curbing publicsector borrowing from banks to finance subsidies. The prevalentfiscal policy of financing subsidies via bank borrowing wasdiscouraged, and rightly so, given it’s crowding out effect onprivate sector credit was quite evident.Subsidizing energy costs enabled lower pricing ofelectricity. However, given limited revenue and absence ofa secondary market for treasuries – subsidy financing viatreasury sales to primary-dealer banks and NBFI’s had theunintended consequence of raising bank rates. Increasedlending rates i.e., higher cost of capital economy-widenaturally pushed up consumer prices.In 2012, lending and deposit rates were higher than five-year averages – peaking at 13.8% and 8.2%, respectively.On time deposits, leading private commercial banks(PCB’s) double-digit rates.-10%10%30%50%70%Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12Total Domestic CreditGrowth (YoY)Pvt. Sector Credit Growth(YoY)Public Sector Credit Growth(YoY)Fiscal-Monetary Nexus12.812.311.911.3 12.413.86.9 7.0 7.06.07.38.20510152006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12Commercial Lending RateBank Deposit Rate
  • 13. www.BRACEPL.comExternal Sector Performance13
  • 14. www.BRACEPL.comTrade & Exports1465.0%! 64.2%! 67.3%! 68.1%! 66.1%! 71.1%! 67.6%!27.2%! 28.4%! 25.4%! 25.1%! 27.8%! 24.4%! 27.7%!0%25%50%75%100%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Breakdown of Export by CommodityRMG! Fish! Leather! Jute! Others!In 2012, and 1H in particular. the ready-made garments (RMG)“export power-house,” as Bangladesh was referred to by a recentNew York Times article, experienced a lagged slowdown onreduced demand from the US and the EU. However, trade deficitswere lowered from 2011-levels thanks in part to the monetaryausterity program in place, one of the consequences of which wasa curbing of non-essential imports.Exports grew 8.0% in 2012, which is respectable and also higherthan in countries with comparable export industries, e.g., Pakistanand Vietnam. In fact, in 2012, Bangladesh became the second-largest exporter of garments and textiles products after China.Diversification of export destinations sustained growth rates in2012, especially in 2H, during which which the newer destinationscontributed ~US$1.0bn of US$9.94bn exports. The US is,however, likely to remain an attractive destination for Bangladeshexports. India is also expected to become a larger exportdestination.To be sure, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, China,Turkey, Australia, Mexico, Russia as well as several countries inthe MENA region are expected to become larger export marketsfor Bangladesh. Another trend worth a mention is the steadygrowth of high-value products (HVPs). Their share in thegarments export basket rose from 7-8% to 15-16% in 2012.-1750-750250125022503250Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12Trade Balance in USD mn Export in USD mn (fob)Import in USD mn (foB)
  • 15. www.BRACEPL.comImports & Outlook1511.5% 12.8% 12.2% 12.0% 10.9% 10.2%11.9%68.1% 66.6% 65.6% 65.6% 70.0% 71.0% 64.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Breakdown of Import by CommodityTextile and Articles Capital MachineryPetroleum and Products Food GrainsOthersThe largest category in imports comprises miscellaneous productsincluding dairy, spices, oil and oil seeds, pulses, sugar, clinker,chemical and pharmaceutical products, fertilizers, dying andtanning materials, cotton, yarn, staple fibers, and iron and steel.As for import markets - India, China, Vietnam, Turkey, Poland andEgypt are expected to contribute significantly in the future., This isin addition to the traditional raw material suppliers in the OIC(Singapore, Malaysia and Kuwait for minerals, fuels, and oils;Indonesia for animal and vegetable fat oils; Pakistan, India, Chinaand Uzbekistan for cotton (India also for vehicle and China formachinery); Saudi Arabia for plastic articles and Korea for iron,steel, and floating structures.2,894.51,975.41,270.41,250.81,384.3748.2533.7299.3182.3Regional Import 2012 Q2 (USD)Other Asian CountriesOICAsian Clearing Union (ACU)SAARCASEANOPECEUNAFTAOther European CountriesIn FY 2012, Bangladesh spent US$6.17 billion on import of liquid fuels,more than twice FY 2011 levels, primarily to run quick-rental powerplants set up to address interim electricity generation gaps.However, monetary austerity, weak demand for exports in the EU andUS, not to mention bumper harvest of food grains, saw liquid fuelimports decline in 2H 2012. New L/C opening for petroleum imports fell22.4% in July-October 2012.Monetary tightening also led to a decline in import of consumer goods,industrial raw materials and capital machinery. In July-November 2012,import GR was -6.9% compared to 21.6% in the same period in 2011.
  • 16. www.BRACEPL.comRemittance & Other inflows16The Bangladeshi expatriate population estimated at around eightmillion remitted back US$14.2bn in 2012, marking a 16.5% YoYGR. This was noteworthy given the high base remittance dollarvolumes had achieved in 2011, and surpassed man-powerexporting countries that had higher volumes until 2011.Estimated at ~US$405.0bn in 2012, remittance to developingcountries are expected to grow ~7.9%, 10.1% and 10.7% in 2013,‘14, and ‘15, respectively, reaching US$534.0bn. Even ifBangladesh maintains average growth rates for developingcountries, it could reach US$19.6bn in 2015.564391 3762768007437936509619137689952001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Foreign direct investment (FDI) picked up 2009-onwards and in 2012, reached US$909mn. In2005-08 and 2001-04, average FDI-levels were US$747.0mn and US$402.0mn, respectively.Attracting FDI is particularly important for a growingeconomy like Bangladesh as it involves transfer oftechnical and managerial knowledge.However, other frontier economies like Vietnam andCambodia have still higher average FDI levels both inabsolute dollar volume as well as share of GDP (~5%for the two countries).The year 2012 also saw foreign-currency term loansof US$1.49bn, about 82% higher YoY and 393%higher than in 2010.1,0891,475 1,706 1,8823,0623,8484,8025,9787,9159,68910,98711,65012,8430200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001993-94 1996-97 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2011-12No. of persons left for abroadRemittances (Million US. $)FDI (US$mn)
  • 17. www.BRACEPL.comFX Reserves & Exchange Rate170153045607590051015Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13Reserve (USD bn) BDT-USD (End of Period)In January 2013, the Bangladesh Bank’s foreignexchange reserve surpassed the US$13bn thresholdfor the first time. Strong remittance inflow, negativeimport growth, quicker collection of export proceeds,FDI growth, and other foreign currency inflows werethe primary drivers.As of January 08, foreign exchange reserves stood atUS$13.1bn, up from US$9.6bn in December 2011.Current reserves are equivalent tofour-month importbill coverage.On escalating FX reserves, the dollar rate, which hadbeen stable in March-November 2012 around theBDT 81.0-82.0 range, dropped below the BDT 80.0level in December. BDT appreciated thereafter.After the free fall of 2011, when BDT depreciated12.8% against the dollar, the 2.6% appreciation sinceDecember is commendable, and is presently at alevel where it retains export competitiveness withoutimporting inflation into the economy.
  • 18. www.BRACEPL.comConsumerism & Manufacturing18
  • 19. www.BRACEPL.comBangladesh : The Next Emerging Consumer Market1915,6508,3605,5204,5004,1403,2502,8702,5802,2901,9401,8101,710MalaysiaThailandSri LankaIndonesiaPhilippinesVietnamPakistanLao PDRNigeriaBangladeshGhanaKenyaGNIperCapitain2011(PPPCurrentUSD)Bangladesh’s per capita income, although higher than Kenya’sand closer to Nigeria’s, is still much lower than in Lao PDR,Thailand and less than 20% of Malaysia’s per capita income.However, at US$1,940, Bangladesh’s per capita on the vergeof the US$2,000-2,500 inflexion range on the S-curve ofconsumption.Experience from South Asian, South East Asian and Africancountries with similar economic fundamentals indicates thatGDP/GNI per capita accelerate around the time it reaches US$2,000.04,0008,00012,00016,0001980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Bangladesh GhanaIndonesia KenyaLao P.D.R. MalaysiaNigeria PakistanPhilippines Sri LankaThailand VietnamUS$2,000 income/capita lineEven modest assumptions on GR indicate Bangladesh isabout the enter a high-growth threshold for consumption.The consumer market in the offing is significant when onerealizes that 57% if the population or about 92.0 million areunder 25 years.
  • 20. www.BRACEPL.comDiscretionary Spend : Mobile Phones & Durables20Mobile subscription doubled in the past five years. Driversfor subscription growth have been increasing per capitaincome, migration to cities and overseas, delays in availingland line connections, and so on.Bangladesh at present has ~62% mobile penetration, whichis certainly a larger market than its frontier market peerssuch as Ghana, Kenya, Lao PDR, Nigeria, Pakistan, SriLanka and Vietnam. However, penetration is higher for theother frontier markets, especially for Ghana at 85%, SriLanka 87%, Lao PDR at 87% and Vietnam XYZ%. OnlyNigeria and Pakistan have similar levels of penetration. 798,5711,000,000100,00055,000- 400,000 800,000 1,200,000Electronic Goods Sales (Units)200920102011MicrowavesAir ConditionersTelevisionsRefrigerators452490620102030405060708090100Mobile Phone Subscribers (mn) Mobile Penetration (%)Mobile Phones, 2008-12The market for discretionary consumer products inBangladesh is approximately ~95.000 for air conditioners,50,000 for microwaves, about 900,000-1.0mn for televisions,and ~800,000 for refrigerators. Refrigerator sales areincreasing at ~25% a year, television sales at 10-12% a year,while air conditioners and microwave consumption growthrates are still in high single-digits.Growth rates for refrigerators and televisions for India andChina were similar in the 1990s, ie the first decade of highdiscretionary spending, following which consumer spendincreased further. The case for Bangladesh ought to besimilar in the coming decade.
  • 21. www.BRACEPL.comBikes, Cars, and Internet Penetration21To continue on consumer discretionary spend, there is a136 percent duty on refrigerators and 189 percent onimported air-conditioners. It makes sense therefore tobuy locally-manufactured refrigerators. This is borne outby growing sales of refrigerators assembled ormanufactured by local names.199,000303,00020002010Number of TouristsThe travel and tourism sector raked in BDT182.5 billion,about 2.2. percent of the gross domestic product (GDP)in 2011. The sectors contribution to overall GDP isforecasted to rise by 7.3% in 2012 and on an average6.1% annually until 2022, according to the WTCC study.The Lonely Planet ranked Bangladesh number one in2011 in its value-for-money tourist destination rankings.Data: World Travel Tourism Council (WTTC)Meanwhile, motor cycle sales increased ~8x in2000-2013. As of 2012, motor cycle sales reached290,000. Local manufacturers are increasinglycompetitive and gaining market share on their importercounterparts. Their quality continues to improve as wellas their capacity and are eventually expected toproduce sufficient surplus to enable export.Growth of the consumer sector is also evident from therise in internet users and penetration of the internetespecially, recent growth rates. Between 2010 and2011, internet penetration grew 8.7X, albeit from a lowbase, according to the International TelecommunicationUnion (ITU).13,176290,00020062012Motorcycle Sales0%4%8%02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0002000 2011Internet Users and PenetrationInternet UsersInternet Penetration(% of Population)
  • 22. www.BRACEPL.comManufacturing PathwaysAt current prices, Bangladesh’s annual imported car market isaround 30,000 units. Imported cars constitute ~80% of thesmall and medium motor vehicle market of which Toyota has69% share.The imported car market has altered however as duties haveescalated to 250% for 1600-2000 cc vehicles, 350% for2750-4000 cc, and 821% for 4000 cc or larger. Meanwhile,equity-loan ratio on car loans have risen ~6-8 times. With ashrinking of the imported car market, opportunity is rife for low-and medium-priced car manufacturers.Automobile manufacturers entering the Bangladesh marketestimate an annual demand six to seven times larger forlocally manufactured cars. South Korean Tagaz and IndianTATA are the other significant foreign players looking to enterthe lower-priced automobile segment.Clearly, as borne by price differentials in refrigerator,television, motor cycle and automobile markets betweenimports and local manufactured products - consumerism isdriving an expansion of the manufacturing industry.In fact, in the previous 50 years, countries that have sustainedperiods of consistent 7 percent or higher growth over a horizonof 25 years or longer, manufacturing and services weredominant contributors. Of course, the agriculture sector doesnot diminish in absolute policy importance given the scope forincreasing yields and high global food prices.Agricultural yield will grow with dissemination among poorfarmers without access to information knowledge on optimal croprotation, usage of higher-yield varieties and hybrids, limitedexperimentation with pesticides, increased urea-usage, andeducation on weather and soil-quality-dependent farming.Increasing agricultural yield will accelerate the growth of thecountry’s industrial sector by freeing up workers for the factories.Bangladesh has the sixth largest work force in the world afterBrazil, Indonesia, US, India and China. On top of gains inemployment generation for an estimated workforce of around~80.0mn – Bangladesh also enjoys one of the most favorabledemographic dividends globally (Vietnam comes close) with65.3% population bin the 15-64 age group and another 30.0%below.2230.0 65.3BangladeshGhanaKenyaLao PDRLeast developedLow incomeMiddle incomeNigeriaPakistanSri LankaVietnamWorldPopulation ages0-14 (% of total)Population ages15-64 (% oftotal)Population agesabove 64 (% oftotal)
  • 23. www.BRACEPL.comEmerging Manufacturing SectorsBangladesh minimum wages are the lowest in Asia,30-100% lower than in Vietnam, Sri Lanka and India,according to the ILO. While wages have recently andjustifiably increased, the existing (and significant)comparative differential has enabled development of labor-intensive sectors, e.g., apparel, textiles, leather, footwear,and up-and-coming ones such as furniture, toys, bi-cycles,sports equipment, and ship building.An example of how domestic manufacturing to meet agrowing consumer segment − has begun to make smallinroads in exports − is the furniture segment. The localmarket is ~US$1.38bn with around 19% sales growth.Meanwhile, export volume, albeit from a low base, haspicked up from US$27mn in FY 2012 to around US$40.0 inFY 2013.In addition to demand from overseas buyers, significantmarket growth is expected on forward-linkage potential withthe domestic ship-building industry. A small ocean-goingvessel made in Bangladesh typically requires furniture of~US$100,000, which are presently imported. SinceBangladeshi ship-builders are increasingly competitive inthe global market for small- and medium-sized vessels,labor-cost arbitrage is expected to benefit both ship buildingand the furniture manufacture industries.23104020102011Shipbuilding Industry Sales (US$ million)Labor-cost competitiveness is rather high for Bangladesh evenin comparison other low-cost manufacturers, e.g., Pakistan. Asof 2011, according to the World Bank, Bangladesh industry-wide net profit margins averaged ~16% compared to 3% inPakistan.Since this sector is likely to incur future costs fromenvironmental regulations, taxation, etc., Bangladesh’s cost-advantage is expected to enable market share growth in the~US$200bn global industry. Single-digit percentage share ofthe global industry entails sizeable economic benefits.In the coming years and decades, other sectors are likely tocatch policy-makers’ attention for their labor-costcompetitiveness. It is important, however, that sectors are notidentified only using a basic model of labor-cost arbitrage, butdetermined in consideration of other factors as well, e.g.,access to raw materials, leadership talent, low-cost energy,reliable infrastructure, favorable regulation, trade policies, andof course diplomatic imperatives.
  • 24. www.BRACEPL.comInfrastructure Gaps Opportunities24
  • 25. www.BRACEPL.comEnergy PowerIn 2012, peak electricity demand was 7,518MW/day, up from6,500MW/day in 2011, up by 16%. Meanwhile, peak supplywas 6,350MW/day and total electricity generation grew by12% to stand at ~35,000GWh (CAGR ~9.0% in 2001-2011).The demand-supply gap came down to ~2,000MW to~1,2000MW in 2012, reflecting reduced load-shedding.2505001000150020001980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Per Capita Electricity Consumption (kWh)Low incomeMiddle incomeBangladeshGhanaElectricity consumption in Bangladesh is one of the lowestregionally and globally, as evident from the accompanying linechart. Scarcity of power is possibly the most significantinfrastructural constraint inhibiting growth and development,and unlocking possible double-digit growth.However electricity prices are among the least expensiveregionally at US¢ 4.16-14.75/kWh for retail and US¢ 5.88/kWhfor bulk users as of Sep ’12 (Sri Lanka has highest retail tariffat US¢ 28.35/kWh). These are prices post-adjustment to lowersubsidies on energy. The Bangladeshi Energy RegulatoryCommission (BERC) raised tariffs by 38.24% and 63.77%between 4Q 2011 and 3Q 2012. Further upward pricerevisions are expected: by 9% in 2013 and 30% in 2014.8.612.218.612.411.512.111.19.5 9.412.70.2 0.10.95.46.911.2126.6Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Load-shedding (as % of peak generation)However, the reduction in power generation has beendriven by quick-rental power plants which require expensiveliquid fuels. A more cost-optimized energy mix, to take theexample of JICA’s proposed roadmap for 2030, “The PowerSystem Master Plan (2010).” recommends that 50%generation be coal-based. As of 2012, coal-generatedpower contributed ~2% of total power generated.
  • 26. www.BRACEPL.comSea Ports Maritime Transportation26With regard to maritime transport, Bangladesh’s sea ports areperhaps the most crucial to growth-impact. The mainChittagong port in the south handles about 80% of thecountry’s imports and exports. It’s situated on the Karnaphuli,is close to the Bay of Bengal, and last year, handled morethan US$47mn tons of cargo and containers of 1.4 millionTEU’s and given growth outlook, requires urgent capacityexpansion.The Chittagong port is particular commercial significance tothe garments industry. Positive changes thus far includeallowing private berth operators to handle containers andcargo. Turn-around-time for ships has lessened to two-and-a-half days but still short of global benchmarks.The deep sea port in south Chittagong is however the biggestgame-changer in the horizon which will enable manifoldincrease in connectivity between countries east and west ofBangladesh as well as trade routes to and from land-lockedNepal and Bhutan. China, India, Myanmar, the UAE, and ofcourse, Nepal and Bhutan have shown interest in developingthe Chittagong port. Down the road, there will be competitionin the maritime transit business for Bangladesh; hence timelyaction is paramount.The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has beguncoal and gas-fired base-load power plant projects, but risks ofimplementation time-overrun and bureaucratic delays aresignificant. Existing gas reserves (~2,250 mmcfd against demandof ~2,700mmcfd) are under pressure for lack of new discoveries.A possible silver lining may lie in gas exploration in the Bay ofBengal, which, following an ITLOS verdict, allowed Bangladeshaccess to four deep-water gas blocks and partial rights over threeblocks. Bidding and subsequent exploration by international oilcompanies (IOC’s) are expected this year.Another positive development is the approval by ECNEC,Bangladesh’s highest policy-making institution, for a cross-borderUS$196.0mn power transmission project. A US$252.5mn powergeneration project dedicated for greater Chittagong is alsoapproved, of which US$172.0mn will be provided by Saudi Arabia,Kuwait, the UAE, and OPEC. There are a few other power projectsin the pipeline.Energy issues notwithstanding, there is also considerableinvestments to be made to develop Bangladesh’s roads, railways,bridge networks, airports, and waterways. The investment case forroads, railways and bridges is of course quite patent for adeveloping country, but in Bangladesh’s case, waterways andaviation present relatively compelling cases as well, especially theformer and in the near-term.
  • 27. www.BRACEPL.comAviation, Roads, Railways BridgesMongla is the second sea port in Bangladesh. It has threecontainer years of 35,752 sq. meters, and canaccommodate 2,180 TUES containers in a single high; fivetransit sheds and two warehouses can store 33,258 m.t.cargo. To develop Mongla, projects worth US$70.0mn forequipment procurement and easier navigation of sea-goingvessels are in the pipeline.Dredging will need to take place at a reasonably large scaleto deepen and widen riverine channels, which willsignificantly reduce transportation time of goods andservices and reduce land traffic congestion. A developedriverine transportation system will also enable renewableenergy generation from hydroelectricity. For purposes ofpolicy formulation, sophisticated synergies are possiblebetween policy programs aimed at sea port developmentand riverine transportation.To continue on transportation modes relativelyunconventional to most frontier emerging economies atBangladesh’s stage of growth – aviation also hasconsiderable potential for growth and hence rationale forpolicy prioritization. The most obvious driver istransportation of RMG exports and the market, several largeRMG manufacturers. Given the scale, growth rate, andambitions of Bangladesh’s garments industry, internationalcargo flights ought to be a logical next step to loweringcosts for the industry and enhancing its competitiveness..Another substantial market for aviation’s growth is the largeBangladeshi expatriate population of mostly migrant workers, butseveral NRB’s naturalized in countries such as the UK, US, Italy,and so on, in total estimated at ~8.5 mn. Even by global standards,this implies a a fairly large market for international passengerflights. But the obvious bottle-necks to the sector’s growth aretechnological know-how at various parts of the sector value chainincluding policy design (e.g., pricing) as well as the scale ofinvestments to generate meaningful returns. Aviation’s sustainedgrowth may necessitate transfer of technical and operationalknowledge at levels comparable to those witnessed in the early-stage Bangladesh telecommunications sector.To return to most conventional infrastructure-growth priorities ofdeveloping nations, i.e., the building of roads, railways and bridges,the larger projects in the pipeline are as follows (dates ofcompletion inexact):- ~US$3.75bn multi-purpose bridge about 6.15 km-long to connectthe south and south-east with the impoverished south-west (lowerinitial estimates; may increase further with time)- US$2.75bn Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development (DMRTD)project for a 2.0 km-long metro-rail, of which JICA has pledged85% funding- US$2.0bn second Padma bridge to connect Dhaka with the westand south-west as well as the main land port with Mongla port- US$1.24bn elevated expressway about 26.0 km-long to connectthe primary airport, Shah Jalal International Airport, to the Dhaka-Chittagong Highway- US$400mn four-lane highway for Dhaka-Chittagong traffic27
  • 28. www.BRACEPL.comRegional Connectivity : Sharing Costs SpoilsHowever, building ports, river networks, expressways, anwidening roads into multiple-lanes are very expensiveinvestments. The size of total investment capital required forthe list of large projects is close to US$10.0bn, which doesnot include the many roads that need to be laid, unpavedpaths paved, smaller bridges to be built – to say nothing ofdeep sea port development, investments in Chittagong andMongla ports, riverine network development, and aviationindustry development. The railway system also requires asizeable overhaul. The size of total investments required mayrun into ~US$40-60.0 bn.This is clearly untenable without foreign direct investmentand other shared financing programs with regional anddistant sovereigns that have expressed interest. Since thecommercial gains from greater connectivity are inevitablyshared, investments ought to be. Large scale commercially-driven diplomacy is clearly the required ingredient toactualize Bangladesh’s requisite transportation networkdevelopment.A discernable benefits of the above is an inevitableemployment boom that results in construction and servicessectors from investing in infrastructure. The second and morelasting benefit is increased connectivity between South Asiancountries, since trade between the neighbors are on the riseand expected to accelerate. The travel time howeverbetween capital cities in South Asia are presently 100-200%higher. Optimizing travel time entails considerably highertrade volumes for Bangladesh and its neighbors.28In fact, interest in developing Bangladesh’s transportationsystem and various modes thereof involve business casesfor countries outside South Asia, and other than China, UAE,and Japan, all of whom have shown actionable interest.There is also the “Emerging Asia,” as represented by SouthEast Asia, Indochina, Korea, and even the CIS.For instance, there is an organization known as BCIM(Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar) that aims toincrease connectivity across the four countries whichconstitutes around 40% of the world’s population. Veryrecently, they organized the first four-nation joint-road surveyto accurately map road connectivity.There is yet another group called The Bay of Bengal Initiativefor Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation(BIMSTEC) formed in 1997 in Bangkok and includesBangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bhutanand Nepal. This consortium is intended to promote trade,investment and connectivity between South and South EastNations. Dhaka happens to be BIMSTEC’s head-quarters.The commercial and diplomatic opportunities for Bangladeshas a result of its advantageous geographic location canfacilitate growth of various Bangladeshi service sectors. Asdemonstrated by Singapore, the growth-impact of investingin logistics and becoming a trading hub, can ensurecontinued prosperity, especially given Bangladesh’s othergrowth fundamentals.
  • 29. www.BRACEPL.comThe Internet of ThingsInternet penetration should also drive an increase in newbusiness activity. Particularly in a country like Bangladesh, theInternet can help make up for shortages in other forms ofinfrastructure, such as roads, by enabling people to transactacross large distances.For starters, internet-based business can contribute toagriculture. With small household farms in rural areasdominating production, there is great scope to increase valueadded using the internet. It can be a useful tool with which todisseminate information on planting times, methods, use offertilizers, etc.In Bangladesh, where urban centers are inhabited by 30% ofthe population - the bank sector’s physical penetration islimited by the country’s terrain, lack of road networks, energysupply gaps and infrastructure bottle-necks.Despite such challenges, banks have built up impressivebranch networks. The next mile for financial inclusion of theunbanked hinges on mobile banking, which in turn requires acheapening of internet access as well as affordable 3G-enabled mobile devices. The auction for 3G licenses isexpected to take place around mid-2013.29However, 3G will not immediately translate to increasedinternet penetration because of licensing and CAPEX costsinvolved for mobile operators (latter due to significantnetwork swap costs for 3G).In the longer run, internet-based business are expected tocontribute significantly to the economy via sectors such asagriculture, health, education, commerce, retail and a varietyof service-oriented sectors.
  • 30. www.BRACEPL.comCapital Markets30
  • 31. www.BRACEPL.comDSE : Upside despite Macro-Financial Stability310100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12Dhaka Stock Exchange MCAP and LiquidityTotal Volume (thousands)Total Turnover in USD (thousands)Total Market Cap. in USD (mn)05,00010,000Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12DSE General IndexAfter a brief impasse in economic and trading activities in2007-8, pent-up liquidity entered the stock market via marginloans and re-purposed bank debt, fueling record retail anddomestic institutional investor participation. In 2010 alone,DGEN appreciated ~94%. In a densely-inhabited capital citywith scarce investible asset classes and rather early-stagefinancial-literacy levels (among investors as well as licensedintermediaries), speculation became rife which ultimately droveDGEN’s relentless rally.The bull market turned a corner in Dec 2010 as BB raised bankcash-reserve ratios. A multi-phase correction set in, initiallyquicker but slowing gradually, largely on investor panic,downsizing of bank portfolios and drying up of trade thereof.Retail investor confidence waned, as did dollar values ofaverage daily turnover. Regulatory changes turned a corner forthe better in 2012 after a phase of policy trial-and-error in 2011.A series of policy initiatives were put in place aimed at curbingmanipulation and volatility risks; simultaneously strengtheningmarket fundamentals; in part on prescriptions from InternationalFinancial Institutions.The boldest policy initiative was setting in motion the de-mutualization of the bourse. So far we understand, this involves anoverhaul of the bourses’ ownership structure – towards greaterrepresentation of independent owners than stock-brokers; revenuemodel changes; and overall, improved accountability andgovernance. Thereafter, surveillance software was launched todetect and deter fraud and manipulation. Regulators also pushedthrough a new free-float adjusted market-capitalization-weightedindex.In sum, the country’s primary bourse, the DSE has become a safermarket in which to invest. More importantly, it has become anattractively valued market uncorrelated to macroeconomic resultsor outlook; which is a good thing because the market would not bewhat it is to value investors now, had it priced in economicperformance past or expected.
  • 32. www.BRACEPL.comMarket Fundamentals: MCAP Growth3224.218.41.44.822.52.032.830.321.016.115.67.9Sri LankaKenyaBangladeshNigeriaPakistanGhanaTotal Market Capitalization (% of GDP)20111993In 19 years, DGEN’s Market Capitalization to GDP ratioincreased 15x – surpassing MCAP growth rates of comparablefrontier markets. Although it is true that DGEN MCAP probablyhad a far lower base in 1993 than its frontier marketcounterparts, its MCAP GR is still indicative of the underlyingdomestic investor interest in the stock market even at arelatively early stage of its history.In fact, the external drivers of the staggering rally of a hithertolittle-known market in 2009-10 are also reasons for DSE’sdouble-digit multiple growth rate in market cap.First, for the median retail investor, there is a dearth ofinvestable asset categories. Real estate is usually expensive.In the more upscale parts of the capital city, real estate pricesare comparable to Mumbai, which is occasionally higher thanthose in developed market capital cities. Prohibitivelyexpensive real estate, an under-developed fixed-incomemarket, and until recently, single-digit returns on deposits –have fueled retail investor interest in the stock market throughtime.Dhaka’s high population density also lends to rapidinformation flows. The dynamics are just right for highmultiplier effects of both positive and negative feedback oninvestable securities. Lastly, high M2 growth rate alsoIndicates high return-potential and high liquidity. Overallmarket size is positively correlated with the ability to mobilizecapital and diversify risks across the economy.
  • 33. www.BRACEPL.comMarket Fundamentals: Liquidity Ratios3392.61993 2002 2011Total Turnover to Market Cap Ratio (%)Least developedcountriesLow incomeMiddle incomeWorldBangladeshLiquid markets are naturally preferred because they are likelierto have lower bid-ask spreads, enable more efficient pricediscovery and are less prone to long-term bubbles andcorrections.Liquidity also significantly predicts future returns. Moreover, alack of liquidity causes asset markets to dry up or render tradesdifficult to execute when prices are falling, particularly when aninvestor might want to exit.1993 1999 2005 2011Total Turnover to GDP Ratio (%)Bangladesh GhanaKenya NigeriaSri LankaDespite Bangladesh’s equity markets’ relatively early stage ofdevelopment, dollar volume of turnover levels (as evident fromthe adjacent pictorial) are generally higher than dollar volumetrends for the least developed, low-income and middle-incomecountry groups.Turnover to Market Cap and Turnover to GDP are both usefulindicators of liquidity as the first represents the liquidity of themarket and the second of both the market and wider economy.When liquidity risks of investing in markets are dispersedsystemically – it is easier to manage portfolio risks as long as aneconomy’s financial services sector is well-governed andregulated, as is turning out to be the case with Bangladesh’sbanking sector in light of asset quality and risk capitaladjustments underway.
  • 34. www.BRACEPL.comIndicators of an Under-valued Market?34-1,0002,0003,0004,000-100200300400500600Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12Monthly Imports and Stock TurnoverStock Market Turnover (BDT bn) Import (USD mn)17.8x0x5x10x15x20x25x30x35x2003 2006 2009 2012Market P/EMarket P/E Market P/E (Avg. 2003-2012)Despite debates about its utility for valuation of an entire market –historical P/E is a more useful indicator of an undervalued market thanan overvalued market. By this metric, DSE is under-valued givencurrent single-digit P/E ratios.The next chart (top right-hand side) indicates the inverse relationshipbetween a high bank deposit rate and lower fund flows to the stockmarket, which was clearly the case in 2011-12 as monetary tightening,and provision growth led to higher deposit rates for fund mobilization.Imports are a proxy for industrial production index. Clearly a leadingindicator for turnover, the widened gap in 2011-12 indicates the growthin fuel imports viz-a-viz non-fuel imports, since the former’s effect onthe market is not discernible yet. However, an uptick in overall importsin 2H 2012 bodes well for the market, as does the de-growth indeposits after June 2012.(100)-100200300400500600Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12Monthly Deposits Flow and Stock TurnoverChange in Deposits (BDT bn)Stock Market Turnover (BDTbn)
  • 35. www.BRACEPL.comAppendix: Sectors Stock Picks35
  • 36. www.BRACEPL.comTobacco FootwearThe Tobacco industry in Bangladesh has an annual market sizeof ~135 billion. Tobacco spend/capita is BDT844/US$10.55 andconsumption 2.5 sticks/person per year. Market penetration inBangladesh is around 40%. Tobacco sales consist of 52%filtered cigarettes and 48% unfiltered varieties (local term: bidi).Bidi costs 1/6 the price of a low-end cigarette.British American Tobacco (BATBC) is the only listed tobaccomanufacturer with about 99% market share in the high-end.BATBC’s shareholding structure is as follows: 73% by the BATgroup; 11% by the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh(majority government-owned NBFI); and 16% free-float. Otherplayers in the tobacco industry are domestic conglomerates ofsignificant size: Dhaka Tobacco (under Akij Group) and AbulKhair Tobacco.BATBC’s low-segment market share increased from 20% in2006 to 60% in 2010. Net profits grew at double-digit rates in2006-11. Excises are high and constitute 11% of thegovernment’s tax revenue. Future profitability expected to bedriven by consumers upgrading to higher segments. Segmentsare classified as follows: high-end; medium end; low-medium;and low-end. BATBC has significant cash balance with minimalleverage.Footwear industry generates annual sales of BDT 18.0bn or US$225.0mn. Footwear consumption is 0.8 pairs per capita per year.Bata Shoe and Apex Adelchi are the only large players in anotherwise fragmented industry. Bata has the largest market shareof ~20% and Apex ~5-7%. Bata has two manufacturing plants inTongi and Dhamrai with production capacity of 110,000 pairs/day.Apex has a production capacity of 15,000 pairs/day for export andanother 5000/day for domestic sales.In Bata’s case, domestic sales contribute ~91% to revenue.Meanwhile, Apex is export-oriented with ~80.0% revenue comingfrom exports. Apex, however, plans to generate 40.0% fromdomestic sales by 2015.The footwear market is poised to surpass historical growth ratesas churn increases with higher disposable income of thepopulation. This bodes well for Apex’s re-purposing of export-quality footwear for domestic consumption while Bata shouldcontinue to do well with sustained focus on design and brandbuilding.New entrants are also establishing operations encouraged byindustry’s growth prospects. Pou Hung Industrial (Bangladesh)Limited owned by Pou Chen Group has set up a US$62.0mnfactory in the Karnaphuli Export Processing Zone (EPZ). Korea-based giant Youngone group has also set up a US$110mn shoefactory in the same EPZ with plans to increase their investment inthe coming years.36
  • 37. www.BRACEPL.comPersonal Care PharmaceuticalsMarico Bangladesh Limited is the largest listed company in theconsumer and household products space. They have a “basket ofoils.” Parachute, their flagship hair oil brand, has 50% marketshare of a total annual sales of a 100 million. Per capitaconsumption of hair oil is 250 ml/year.Marico has the ability to pass on a price increases, often bypacking lower volumes per unit of product sold. They are efficientat building brands and developing distribution networks. Theirniche is the grooming, health and wellness space within theconsumer products space. Parachute, for example, is made of100% herbal extracts whereas most of their competitors’ oils areblended. Parachute coconut oil is sold in India, Sri Lanka, andIndonesia.Keya Cosmetics Limited is a key player in the cosmetics andconsumer products space. Its products include soap, shavingcream, toothpaste, with their flagship brand, Keya Beauty Soap, isone of the market leaders domestically. Keya Beauty Soap is alsoexported to India, Bhutan and the Middle East. In 2007-2011,Keya’s sales doubled, reaching US$30.0mn with increasingoperating margins (CAGR 28% in the said horizon).Despite backward linkage via acquisition of Keya Soap Chemicalsin 2010, raw materials account for 30% of costs, while exports are7.0% of revenue. In April 2012, Keya raised US$18.5mn through arights issue, to lower debt service obligations, which, until 2011,constituted 46% of assets. Keya is a relatively liquid stock, amongthe 20 most-traded of 2012 with an average daily turnover of US$0.78mn. Keya has a market cap of US$60.0mn and 66% freefloat.Pharmaceuticals is one of the fastest growing and mosttechnologically-developed sectors in Bangladesh. The retail marketgrew at 17.2% annually in 2007-11, reaching US$1.0bn in 2011. Ofdrugs sold, generic to branded ratio is 85 to 15. Increasing lifeexpectancy, disposable income, information flow via mobileconnectivity and hospital sector penetration are growth drivers for thepharmaceuticals industry. As of 2011, average pharmaceutical spendwas about 3.4% of GDP/capita. Pharmaceutical exports constitute asmall share of the sector’s business although it has increased from US$3.7mn in 2001 to US$50.4mn in 2011.Square Pharmaceuticals is the largest pharmaceuticals company witha total revenue of BDT17.0bn and market share of 19.2% in 2010-11.Their nearest competitors are Incepta Pharmaceuticals and BeximcoPharmaceuticals with market shares of 9.1% and 8.6% respectively.Leading players enjoy elastic demand and can pass throughincremental costs on FX and inflation to consumers. Beximco Pharmasells its drugs to Southeast Asian and African countries and hasrecently entered the highly-regulated EU market to sell ophthalmicproducts. Renata, erstwhile Pfizer Bangladesh, and another leadingpharmaceutical player, exports to Sri Lanka.The WTO’s agreement on trade-related aspects of intellectual propertyrights (TRIPS) expires in 2016. Consequently, the 150-odd drugspresently sold in the market without paying royalties may becomeexpensive. The medical profession and health care industry is thenlikely to resort to a rationalizing of prescription trends. Older off-patentdrugs may be brought back, and in rare cases, large players willsustain presence in export markets by sourcing domestically-producedAPI. There is however, a possibility of TRIPS being extended, so as toenable low-income countries like Bangladesh export of affordabledrugs to other low-income destinations in Africa.37
  • 38. www.BRACEPL.comTelecommunicationsThe Bangladesh telecom industry has six operators in a highlycompetitive environment. Mobile subscriber penetration is at present~57-58%. Pre-paid customers are 90% of the market and sectorARPU is around US$2.0. New customers, outside of urban zones,generate lower ARPUs. Drivers of industry growth will be increasingdispensable income, spread of wealth, availability of inexpensivemobile phones, and so forth.Grameenphone (GP) is the largest listed company on the DhakaStock Exchange and the only billion-dollar public company (MarketCapitalization of ~US$2.3bn). It has ~45% of market share countingdual SIMs and 38% on single SIMs. Their network covers 99% of thecountry.GP is also the largest internet service provider (ISP) in the country,owing to its “Edge” internet services on mobile phones. The nextstage of growth for GP will come from 3G-based business. However,having paid market-share-determined 2G license renewal fees andundergone network swap for 3G, the business case for 3G is notimminent. It will depend on a cheapening of the internet, recoupinglicensing fees over time and availability of low-cost of 3G-enabledphones. GP has completed a year-long network swap to make it 3G-enabled.It’s primary competitors are gaining market share of late throughaggressive pricing, which is eroding the premium GP enjoyed onARPU. GP is presently focused on operational efficiency andproduct diversification after the headwinds of 2012 in the form of 2G-license-related payments, SIM-registration and 10-second pulse.Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company (BSCCL), incorporated inJuly 2008 and publicly listed in June 2012, operates the onlyinternational submarine cable connectivity in Bangladesh. BSCCLis 74% government-owned and has 26% free-float.The cable is 20,000km-long and crosses 17 landing points inSingapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka,Pakistan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, Italy, Algeria andFrance. The Bangladesh landing station is at Cox’s Bazar. BSCCLis mandated to handle the submarine cable connectivity as amember of the SEA-ME-WE-4 (SMW-4) international submarinecable consortium. BSCCL has earned membership to the SEA-ME-WE-5 consortium as well which allow it to handle a secondsubmarine cable connectivity through the country, scheduled togo live in 2014.The company provides bandwidth access to all the telecomoperators (e.g. IIG, IGW, mobile operators, ISP etc.) and with non-cash depreciation being the major expense item, it is able togenerate significant margins. In 2011, BSCCL’s EBITDA Margin,Gross Margin, Operating Margin, and Profit Margin were 90%,84%, 73%, and 36%, respectively. Their business will be volumedriven and with internet penetration growth rate increasingexponentially, BSCCL is well poised to grow sustains highmargins.38
  • 39. www.BRACEPL.comCementCement is a growth sector in Bangladesh growing at 88% in2005-12 on low base of per capita consumption; multiplier effectof GDP growth; annual development program (ADP) spend.However, future growth rates ought to surpass historicalaverages given larger scale and count of infrastructure projectsin the pipeline, as well as affordable housing projects. Double-digit annual growth rates are in the offing 2013-21.The sector’s current installed capacity is 22 mmt and actualcapacity ~17 mmt. The industry uses a 95% to 5% mix ofPortland Composite Cement (PCC) to Ordinary Portland Cement(OPC). Per capita cement consumption is 78kg per capita,compared with 150kg for India, world average of 260kg, andChina’s 1000kg per capita (highest globally).As of 1H 2012, consumption breakdown by retail : real estatedevelopers : public sector is 45% : 25% : 30%. The unit price isaround US$5.5 per bag. Clinker, the primary raw material, is~70% of production cost. Clinker imports exposes the sector toFX-volatility while lowering capacity utilization. CAPEX additionsare anticipated 2014 onwards.The top five players and respective market share are ShahCement (14%); Heidelberg (11%); Holcim (8%); Meghna (8%)and Lafarge (~7%). **as of most recently available figureLafarge Surma Cement is the only exception to the sector in thatthey have backward-linkage. They have a limestone quarry inMeghalaya, India, from which they transfer limestone via a 17-kmconveyor belt to their production plant in Bangladesh. However,following a legal petition filed on grounds of environmentalconcerns, Lafarge was unable to access its limestone until theIndian Supreme Court ruled in Lafarge’s favor, after 17 months.Lafarge regained access to its quarry in Aug 2011. Other thancost savings from in-house clinker production, backward-linkagehedges Lafarge against oil price increases, which increasesimport costs on depreciating BDT. Lafarge, prior to operationaldisruption in most of 2010-11, earned 39% gross margins.Heidelberg Cement is our top pick in the cement sector. It hadannual capacity of 2.1m tons as of 2011 with 30% additionalcapacity expected in 2012. It’s flagship cement brands are Rubyand ScanCem. In 9M 2011, due to dollar rate depreciation, rawmaterial import costs (~48% of sales over the last five years),reduced gross margins by 7.2% YoY. However, Heidelberg wasable to pass through ~100% of the cost increase in 2012, andprices have held even as taka has appreciated against the dollar –driving our estimates of ~20% gross margins.39
  • 40. www.BRACEPL.comBuilding MaterialsLinde Bangladesh, erstwhile Bangladesh Oxygen Company(BOC), is the leading industrial gas manufacturer inBangladesh. Linde’s BD operations reports to Singapore. Thecompany operates in three segments: are gases, wielding,and electrode manufacturing. Linde’s “basket of gases”contains bulk gas, processed gas, and medical gas. Despiteexchange rate exposure translating to raw-material-importcosts to sales ratio of 3:10, Linde’s gross margins grew 15% in2011, reflecting their significant pricing power. Our estimatesindicate higher growth rate for 2012, on BDT appreciation andsustained demand, and 190% growth by 2015. In the bulk,processed and medical gas segments, Linde is a clear marketleader with 40%, 80% and 70% share, respectively. It’scompetitors are local ship-breakers. Linde’s gas prices are35% higher than in other marketsBerger Paints, a 275-year-old company operating in SouthAsia for 65 years, is considered the ‘pioneer of paint’ inBangladesh. Berger has a relatively stable market share of52% despite competition from Asian Paints and localmanufacturers. Berger has a band of prices for productsdepending on quality. On this band, grade A contributes 70%;grade B 25%, and grades C and D ~5% to Berger’s revenue.Berger’s products are popular in the retail segment (residentialuse) and automobile workshops, although the industrialsegment at large is expected to drive future growth. Bergeralso exports to the seven sister states in north-east India.40
  • 41. www.BRACEPL.comContact UsMohammed Rahmat Pasha Chief Executive Officer pasha@bracepl.com +88 01755 540040Sajid Huq AmitDirectorStrategic Salessajid.huq@bracepl.com +88 01730 727949Saleh ChowdhuryAssistant ManagerStrategic Salessaleh.chowdhury@bracepl.com+88 01730 727946BRAC EPL Strategic Sales121/B Gulshan AvenueGulshan-2, DhakaBangladesh

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